| | | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Tara Palmeri, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | Presented by Facebook | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | After 2016, when just about every poll heading into Election Day had HILLARY CLINTON winning, Democratic pollsters vowed they could never allow themselves to be that wrong again. Now, a group of five leading Democratic polling firms is trying to explain, once and for all, why they blew it again in 2020, predicting victories for the party up and down the ballot that never materialized. As our polling guru Steve Shepard reports today, the competing firms — ALG Research, GBAO Strategies, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, Global Strategy Group and Normington Petts — banded together in an unusual collaboration after the election to conduct a self-autopsy of sorts. It acknowledged "major errors" and a failure "to live up to our own expectations" — yet, frustratingly, no easy solution to the problem of consistently overestimating how major Democratic candidates, including JOE BIDEN, would perform. Among the culprits: | • | Deteriorating public trust in institutions, government, the news media and, yes, the polling industry — driven by DONALD TRUMP'S bashing of those very institutions. Essentially, Trump voters were less willing to participate in polls. | • | Pollsters again underestimated turnout among rural and white non-college-educated voters, who overwhelmingly backed Trump. | • | Failure to detect late movement toward Trump and Republican candidates in the run-up to the election. | • | Not accurately accounting for the fact that Democrats stayed home and answered their phones in greater numbers last year than Republicans who did not follow Covid-19 restrictions as closely. | | But IDing the problems was easier than agreeing on fixes for next time. Even before Trump, the polling industry had been struggling to adapt to the evaporation of home landlines and the relative reliability they provided to survey takers. Trump has only exacerbated the challenge of measuring public sentiment when few people want to answer the phone and many actively distrust pollsters. "While there is evidence some of these theories played a part, no consensus on a solution has emerged. What we have settled on is the idea there is something systematically different about the people we reached, and the people we did not," the memo reads. Put differently, as one of the participating pollsters told Steve, who got the scoop on the autopsy: "2020 was an 'Oh, s---' moment for all of us." Read the full story here. And read the memo here. | | A message from Facebook: It's time to update internet regulations
The internet has changed a lot in the 25 years since lawmakers last passed comprehensive internet regulations. It's time for an update.
See how we're making progress on key issues and why we support updated regulations to set clear rules for addressing today's toughest challenges. | | | SENATE REPUBLICANS CALL FOR TRUMP-MCCONNELL TRUCE — Two days after Trump derided Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL as a "dumb son of a bitch," Senate Republicans are calling on the two to make peace, as our Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine report. Even Sen. JOHN THUNE of South Dakota, McConnell's No. 2 and no fan of Trump, says the duo needs to come to some sort of understanding if they want a shot at taking back the majority — and if Trump wants to remain relevant in the party. Trump, of course, isn't having it. In a statement late Monday night, he hit McConnell again , accusing him of being too weak to fight what he called the left's court-packing effort. "He didn't fight for the presidency, and he won't fight for the court," the statement read. (Everyone knows McConnell cares more about the courts than pretty much any Republican in Washington — probably why Trump chose to make that particular dig.) Here's the problem for McConnell and a potential "truce": Trump demands loyalty and doesn't give it in return. So even though it's Trump taking potshots — not McConnell — peace would require McConnell to do what House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY and NRSC Chair RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) have done in recent days: grovel. Scott over the weekend awarded Trump some sort of "NRSC Champion for Freedom Award" to butter him up. But can McConnell really stomach doing something like that after Jan. 6? So far, the answer is no. On Monday, McConnell refused to respond to Trump's weekend putdown. At the same time, if there's one thing that motivates McConnell more than anything, it's being majority leader. So perhaps a little ring-kissing will seem worth it if it's the price of taking back the Senate. Or not. In the meantime, the drama between the two isn't going away. Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook, where we're happy to grovel for the support of our readers. Got a tip or document to share? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri. We'll keep you anonymous. | | | |   | | | BIDEN'S TUESDAY — The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 9:30 a.m. Biden will visit the Capitol Rotunda to pay his respects to Capitol Police Officer WILLIAM EVANS at 11 a.m. Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS will meet with members of the Congressional Black Caucus at 2 p.m. in the Oval Office. — Harris will hold a roundtable on Black maternal health alongside domestic policy adviser SUSAN RICE at 12:30 p.m. At 4 p.m., Harris will visit the Capitol Rotunda to pay respects to Evans. — Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 12:30 p.m. THE SENATE will meet at noon to consider the nomination of POLLY TROTTENBERG to be deputy Transportation secretary before recessing and returning for a vote at 2:15 p.m. IRS Commissioner CHARLES RETTIG will testify before the Finance Committee at 10 a.m. THE HOUSE will meet at 7 p.m., with first votes as early as 7:15 p.m. | | | | SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TO JOIN AN IMPORTANT CONVERSATION: Power is changing, in Washington and across the country. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that all politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. Our twice-weekly newsletter "The Recast" breaks down how race and identity are shaping politics and policy in America and we are recasting how we report on it. Get fresh insights, scoops and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country and hear from important new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out, SUBSCRIBE . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | 
PHOTO OF THE DAY: President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris meet with a bipartisan group of members of Congress to talk infrastructure/jobs on Monday. | Amr Alfiky/Pool via Getty Images | CONGRESS ABOUT THAT W.H. INFRASTRUCTURE MEETING — Hill Republicans left an infrastructure meeting with Biden on Monday saying the president struck all the right notes on being open to compromise. But Rep. DAVID PRICE (D-N.C.) told us afterward that the main obstacle for a bipartisan deal — and it's a gigantic one — remains: how to pay for it all. During the meeting, Sen. ROGER WICKER of Mississippi, the ranking Republican on the Commerce Committee, told Biden that raising the corporate tax rate is a non-starter for many Republicans who view their support for the 2017 Trump tax cuts as a legacy-defining vote. More on the meeting here from Sam Mintz DOUBLE DARE YOU — "Democrats dare GOP to filibuster Asian American hate crimes bill," by Nicholas Wu, Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett: "Democrats, for their part, are daring the 50-vote minority to block the modest legislation amid a spike in hate incidents against Asian Americans during the pandemic. While the GOP has yet to make a conference-wide decision, Wednesday's vote could serve as a data point for Democratic senators seeking to persuade more of their colleagues to scrap the 60-vote threshold that has left some of President Joe Biden's most progressive priorities to languish in the upper chamber. "Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) said that Republicans are considering voting to open debate and offering amendments on the hate crimes measure. Some in the GOP may want 'an opportunity to engage in a discussion about how to make it better, how to improve it,' Thune said of the bill." BEWARE HANGRY HILL AIDES — "&pizza closes early in Rayburn after staffers eat all the pizza," Roll Call: "Bubbling cheese had just returned to Congress, but &pizza quickly became 'no pizza' on Monday after a run on the restaurant. So great was the pent-up pizza demand inside the Rayburn House Office Building that the newly reopened shop was forced to close three hours early when ingredients got low." POLITICS ROUNDUP DO NOT WHAT MCCONNELL SAYS — A week after the Senate leader warned the business community to "stay out of politics," it appears to be doing anything but. Major League Baseball took heat over its decision to pull the All-Star Game out of Atlanta, yet criticism of Republican efforts to enact stricter voting laws from business leaders is spreading, according to the NYT : "With Republicans in Texas and other states continuing to advance restrictive election legislation, corporate chieftains around the country have stepped up their efforts in recent days to oppose such laws and defend voting rights. "Two prominent Black executives are enlisting major corporations to sign a new statement opposing 'discriminatory legislation,' and PayPal and Twilio said Monday that they had agreed to add their names. BlackRock, the investment firm, was likely to sign the statement but had not yet committed, according to a person familiar with the situation. Other companies were also in discussion to sign on, two people familiar with the deliberations said." DEFIANT DESANTIS — "After YouTube pulls DeSantis video for mask fallacies, governor holds another COVID-19 talk with same docs," South Florida Sun Sentinel: "After YouTube took down a video last week of Gov. Ron DeSantis' coronavirus roundtable because of misinformation about mask-wearing, DeSantis doubled down Monday and invited those same panelists back to the state Capitol for more discussion. "The move plays into DeSantis' recent push to punish 'big tech' for censorship of conservatives, as well as continuing to cement DeSantis' status as the top Republican advocate against anti-COVID-19 measures and a potential GOP nominee for president in 2024." | | A message from Facebook: Facebook supports updated internet regulations
It's been 25 years since comprehensive internet regulations passed. But a lot has changed since 1996.
See how we're taking action and why we support updated regulations to address today's challenges —protecting privacy, fighting misinformation, reforming Section 230, and more. | | | TRUMP CARDS WHY THE ROAD TO MAR-A-LAGO STILL MATTERS: because Trump can pull in serious cash for candidates. Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) raked in a cool half-million dollars at a fundraiser hosted by Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Friday. Last month, South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM raised $300,000 at a fundraiser at the resort. Each haul was a personal record for a single event, according to their aides. "No matter what some in the party might say, President Trump remains key to any candidate's success," said Paul adviser SERGIO GOR. DEPT. OF REALITY ACKNOWLEDGMENT — "Haley says she'll back Trump, stand down if he runs in 2024," AP: "Former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, often mentioned as a possible 2024 GOP presidential contender, said Monday that she would not seek her party's nomination if former President Donald Trump opts to run a second time. 'Yes,' Haley said, when asked if she would support a second bid by Trump, in whose Cabinet she served for the first half of his administration." WOOD TAKES HIS CONSPIRACY THEORIES ON THE ROAD — "Pro-Trump attorney Lin Wood makes chaotic appearance in Charleston ahead of SC GOP chair bid," Post and Courier: "Chaos erupted at the Charleston County GOP meeting when attorney Lin Wood pushed conspiracy theories that Donald Trump won the 2020 election. It was part of Wood's pitch to replace S.C. Republican Party Chairman Drew McKissick next month." DESSERT from The Daily Beast's MOLLY JONG-FAST: "What Mika Brzezinski Did When She Read Trump's 'Bleeding Facelift' Tweet" BEYOND THE BELTWAY LATEST FROM MINNESOTA — "7 P.M. Curfews Go Into Effect For 2.5M In Twin Cities Metro Area After Daunte Wright Shooting Death," CBS Minnesota … "Minnesota killing adds to the anger, and the stakes, as Chauvin trial nears its end," WaPo TOXIC TOWN — "'Bond Girl' Talk and Groping: Albany's Toxic Culture for Women," NYT: "The senator, Julia Salazar, who declined to identify her colleague, also recalled attending a fund-raiser just outside the Capitol in 2019 where another legislator's staff member began commenting on her appearance. 'He said, "You should be on a calendar,"' recalled Ms. Salazar, who was 28 at the time. 'I was so embarrassed that I left.' "If encounters like these are unacceptable and potentially career-ending, especially in the #MeToo era, they are also a defining part of the culture of government in Albany, N.Y., and so endemic that they have continued even after sex scandals took down a governor (Eliot Spitzer) and several members of the State Assembly. Sexual misconduct in Albany has been thrown into sharp relief by allegations against Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo from multiple current and former aides who have accused him of sexual harassment and, in one case, groping during an encounter in the Executive Mansion." VOTING VETO — "How a Very Weird Quirk Might Let Michigan Republicans Limit Voting Rights," NYT: "But unlike in other states with divided governments, Michigan's Constitution offers Republicans a rarely used option for circumventing [Gov. Gretchen] Whitmer's veto. Last month, the state's Republican chairman told activists that he aimed to do just that — usher new voting restrictions into law using a voter-driven petition process that would bypass the governor's veto pen." THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION A RARE TRUMP HOLDOVER — "Biden keeping Trump's pick for Moscow ambassador in place," CNN: "The Biden administration recently decided to keep the Trump-appointed US ambassador on the job in Moscow for the foreseeable future, two senior administration officials told CNN, demonstrating a willingness to nurture areas of stability in the US-Russia relationship after it got off to a tumultuous start. "John Sullivan has been on the job for almost a year and a half. He is viewed by administration officials as a steady hand as the administration ramps up the pressure on Russia for taking actions to undermine the US and democratic values broadly." ALSO … "Biden picks former New Jersey attorney general to lead DEA," WaPo AMERICA AND THE WORLD BLOWING UP THE IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS? — "After Nuclear Site Blackout, Thunder From Iran, and Silence From U.S.," NYT: "The operation raised the question of whether Israel was acting on its own to strike Iran and undermine American diplomacy as the Biden administration seeks to reconstitute a nuclear agreement. Or, alternatively, whether Israel was operating in concert with American interests, carrying out dirty work that would weaken Iran's negotiating position in the talks. "The White House was saying almost nothing in public on Monday about the apparent explosion inside Iran's Natanz facility, below more than 20 feet of reinforced concrete, which destroyed the power supply that keeps the centrifuges spinning at supersonic speeds, enriching uranium. … White House and State Department officials said they had no idea whether the Iranians would show up in Vienna again on Wednesday, when the talks were scheduled to resume." | | | | YOUR GUIDE TO THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION: As the Biden administration closes in on three months in office, what are the big takeaways? Will polls that show support for infrastructure initiatives and other agenda items translate into Republican votes or are they a mirage? What's the plan to deal with Sen. Joe Manchin? Add Transition Playbook to your daily reads for details you won't find anywhere else that reveal what's really happening inside the West Wing and across the executive branch. Track the people, policies and power centers of the Biden administration. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | NOW HERE'S A TRANSITION FOR YOU — "Redfield Joins Big Ass Fans, Promoter of Controversial COVID-Killing Technology," Daily Beast: "Dr. Robert Redfield, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has joined Big Ass Fans, lending his scientific credibility to a company division that says its ion-generating technology kills the coronavirus. The company charges $9,450 for a fan with technology that academic air quality experts question. "Academic indoor air quality experts who criticize certain claims about COVID-killing technology say the industry-funded studies often focus on results of tests run in a space ranging in size from a shoebox to a cabinet that do not reflect the conditions in a large room. Studies backed by the industry rarely make it clear whether the touted 'virus-killing' ions or molecules are doing the work, experts say, or if improvements come from a fan or filter on a device." MEDIAWATCH — "Reuters names Alessandra Galloni as its next editor-in-chief," Reuters — Allison Harris is joining NewsNation as a correspondent in D.C. focused on the White House. She previously was a reporter for KDFW-TV FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth. STANDING BY TUCKER — "Fox has no problem with Tucker Carlson's 'replacement theory' remarks, says Lachlan Murdoch," CNN: "Fox Corporation chief executive Lachlan Murdoch dismissed the Anti-Defamation League's demand that the company fire host Tucker Carlson, telling the organization in a letter that his company saw no problem with comments Carlson made about the racist 'great replacement' theory. … "'Concerning the segment of "Tucker Carlson Tonight" on April 8th, however, we respectfully disagree,' Murdoch continued in the letter, which the ADL provided CNN. 'A full review of the guest interview indicates that Mr. Carlson decried and rejected replacement theory. As Mr. Carlson himself stated during the guest interview: "White replacement theory? No, no, this is a voting rights question."' In a letter of its own, the ADL responded Monday to Murdoch." STAFFING UP — The Interior Department announced a slate of new members of its leadership: Heather Barmore will be director of digital strategy, Liz Klein will be senior counselor to the secretary, Giovanni Rocco will be deputy press secretary, Felicia Salazar will be speechwriter, and Raina Thiele will be senior adviser for Alaska affairs and strategic priorities. Announcement TRANSITIONS — Jeff Lowenstein will be staff director for the House Intelligence Committee. He previously was chief of staff for Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Patrick Boland will take over as COS for Schiff and previously was comms director for the House Intelligence Committee. … Lauren Evette Williams is now comms director for the House Oversight Coronavirus Crisis Subcommittee. She most recently was an SVP at Burson Cohn and Wolfe and is a Marcia Fudge alum. … … Chris Mewett is now legislative director for Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). He previously was national security adviser for Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and is a Defense Department alum. … Michael Frazier is now EVP and chief business officer at FARE. He previously was EVP and deputy director for external affairs at the 9/11 Memorial & Museum. … Taylor Sholler is now senior director of government affairs at Lam Research. He most recently was director of government affairs at Applied Materials and is a U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Judd Gregg alum. REBRAND: Lobby shop Peck Madigan Jones has changed its name to Tiber Creek Group in a nod to its growing, bipartisan team and the Tiber Creek that stretches from Capitol Hill to the Washington Monument. ENGAGED — Corey McCray, of Chevron government affairs, proposed to Kristyn Royster, U.S. Chamber of Commerce PAC director, over the weekend at their favorite spot on Fripp Island, S.C. They met through a mutual friend in 2017. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) … Reps. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) and Marie Newman (D-Ill.) … Celinda Lake … Will Davis of the OECD Washington Center … Doug Coutts … Brian Bartlett of Rational 360 … Taylor Gross of the Herald Group … POLITICO's Jack Smith … CNN's Nathaniel Meyersohn … Edelman's Sujata Mitra and Kate Meissner … Maggie Feldman-Piltch … Amazon's Justin Snow … C-SPAN's Jeremy Art, a huge Nationals fan … Alex Yost … E&E News' Amy Carlile, Colleen Luccioli and Jeff Tomich … John Barsa … former Reps. Susan Davis (D-Calif.) and Ted Yoho (R-Fla.) … Engage's Nick Schaper … Sally Larson … Ford's Brad Carroll and Rachel McCleery … Kasey O'Brien of Middle Seat Digital … NBC's Justice Gilpin-Green … Jonah Cunningham … Amy Goodman … WaPo's Lateshia Beachum … Morning Consult's Jeff Cartwright … SKDKnickerbocker's Mia Motley … Steve Ayscue … Dean Hingson … Emily Loeb … Deena Tauster … Erin Dunne … Bloomberg's Ayanna Alexander … Janet Ritz … Mercury's John Gallagher … Karriem Holman of kPolitics … former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R-Colo.) … Geoff Embler … Kevin Warsh Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross. | | | | Sponsored Survey WE VALUE YOUR OPINION: Please take a 1-minute survey about one of our advertising partners. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment