Thursday, April 1, 2021

Corporate mind-meld on Biden plan — Lobbying bonanza begins — Biden looks to squash Trump's legacy

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By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

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Quick Fix

Corporate mind-meld — MM spoke with a C-suite level executive at Fortune 100 "real" economy company about the tax hikes included in President Biden's "American Jobs Plan." This person noted that the Business Roundtable (which came out against the plan) along with other top corporate groups have previously supported something around the 25 percent top rate Biden proposed.

The bigger problem for business , this person said, comes below the headline proposal and into the weeds of re-domociling and trimming other deductions that lower effective rates well under the current top level of 21 percent. "None of these guys can realistically with a straight face oppose 25 percent. That's not where the fight is. Like at all. Especially for tech and pharma that are so easy to redomicile."

Interestingly, in addition to opposing the plan in general , BRT called for any legislation to come in "regular order" rather than through reconciliation. Which is another way of saying: no tax hikes at all because Republicans will never support them. (More on this below.)

The battle ahead Via our Megan Cassella and Theodoric Meyer: "Biden has laid down his opening bid on infrastructure … Now everybody wants a piece of it.

"The White House's rollout of the biggest infrastructure package in at least five decades has sparked a lobbying frenzy in Washington … The early jockeying for influence over the plan portends a fierce debate about the details that could last much of the year, if not longer.
Veteran lobbyists said the package could spark the most intensive lobbying effort in history

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING — Thanks for all the many b'day wishes. And Happy April Fool's Day (there are no April Fool's jokes in here, sorry not sorry.) Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

 

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Driving the Day

President Biden holds a Cabinet meeting at 1:15 p.m. … Initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. expected to drop to 680K from 684K … ISM Manufacturing Survey at 10 a.m. expected to rise to 61.5 from 60.8 …

BIDEN LOOKS TO KNOCK OUT TRUMP TAX LEGACY — Our Brian Faler: "Biden is using his infrastructure plan to take aim at … Trump's signature economic achievement: His corporate tax cuts.

"While Democrats cast the tax increases as a matter of fairness, they also hope it will make good politics. The coming fight promises to reignite a debate over how much corporate taxes matter for the health of the economy, not to mention the political fortunes of lawmakers."

DEMS WARN OF MARKET RISKS FROM ARCHEGOS — Our Kellie Mejdrich: "Top Democrats … warned of financial market risks posed by the recent collapse of investment fund Archegos Capital Management, a sign of growing Washington scrutiny of a meltdown that has ensnared several of the world's biggest investment banks.

"Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) voiced support for regulators to further investigate the incident, which stems from billions in risky stock bets made by the firm. The fallout forced banks to quickly unwind financial positions with Archegos, causing at least some to take losses."

THE TOUGHER SLOG AHEAD FOR BIDEN — Our Marianne LeVine, Sarah Ferris, and Melanie Zanona: "Biden's first big legislative package sped through Congress. The next one could take at least half a year to pass — if it can get to his desk.

"Biden and Hill Democrats … began a months-long sprint to pass a $2.5 trillion bill to shore up the nation's physical infrastructure … Republicans are already balking, dismissing Biden's attempted outreach as disingenuous, and preparing a messaging campaign against the package that will almost certainly force Democrats to go it alone"

SEC WARNS ON SPACS — Also Via Kellie: Just as the SPAC boom shows signs of faltering the SEC put out two statements on SPACs … warning about the potential risks involved for companies and investors. The SEC's release of these statements suggests the regulator could be worried that investors and businesses involved in SPAC transactions might not fully understand the newly-popular company type. Statement can be found here.

YELLEN WARNS ON CLIMATE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL SYSTEM — Our Victoria Guida: "Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen … called climate change 'an existential threat' and the biggest emerging risk to the health of the U.S. financial system, pledging to marshal regulatory forces to guard against its harmful effects.

"Yellen made the promise during her inaugural appearance as the head of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, a panel of top regulators tasked with policing Wall Street behavior that has the potential to crash the entire economy."

 

THE LATEST FROM INSIDE THE WEST WING : A lot happened in the first two months of the Biden presidency. From a growing crisis at the border to increased mass shootings across the country while navigating the pandemic and ongoing economic challenges. Add Transition Playbook to your daily reads to find out what actions are on the table and the internal state of play inside the West Wing and across the administration. Track the people, policies and emerging power centers of the Biden administration. Don't miss out. Subscribe today.

 
 
Markets

SEC OPENS PROBE INTO ARCHEGOES TRADES — Bloomberg's Matt Robinson and Benjamin Bain: "The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission opened a preliminary investigation into Bill Hwang over his leveraged trades that have roiled Wall Street.

"The SEC started the civil probe in recent days after Hwang's Archegos Capital Management made a series of wrong-way wagers that prompted brokers to liquidate his positions, said a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the inquiry isn't public. The examination is in its early stages and is being led by the asset-management group in the SEC's enforcement division."

BOND TRADERS GIRD FOR MORE PAIN AFTER BIGGEST LOSS SINCE 1980 — Bloomberg's Daniela Sirtori-Cortina: "Everyone's excited about the prospects for a sharp economic recovery as increasing numbers of Americans get their Covid-19 vaccinations. Well, almost everyone — holders of U.S. Treasuries have serious reasons for concern.

"The debt is capping its worst quarter since 1980, when former Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker was trying to break inflation by sending rates soaring. And with the economy returning to normal, investors are bracing for higher yields and even more losses to come."

PRESSURE FOR HEDGE FUND SCRUTINY BUILDS AS YELLEN LEADS FIRST FSOC MEETING — Reuters' David Lawder: "U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is facing pressure from Democrats to revive tougher scrutiny of hedge funds and other large pools of capital as she heads her first meeting of the premier grouping of U.S. financial regulators on Wednesday.

"The meltdown of leveraged hedge fund Archegos Capital Management this week, which inflicted losses on Credit Suisse, Nomura and other intermediaries, gives the Financial Stability Oversight Council fresh evidence to review."

The FSOC is also looking into vulnerabilities from the 2020 market meltdown

BIDEN AIMS TO END CORPORATE TAX CUTS REWARDING INVESTORS — Bloomberg's Laura Davison: "The corporate tax-cut party President Donald Trump kicked off will soon be over if his successor proves able to enact proposals to roll back half of the 2017 domestic income-tax reduction and to radically revamp levies on profits earned abroad.

"President Joe Biden's $2.25 trillion infrastructure-centered plan, laid out by the White House Wednesday, relies on higher corporate levies to pay for it. The proposals would change tax benefits that were at the center of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed solely with Republican votes."

SPAC EXCITEMENT FADES — WSJ's Amrith Ramkumar: "SPAC mania is taking a breather. Shares of new special-purpose acquisition companies are wobbling around their initial public offering price in March after surging earlier in 2021. The reversal highlights the broader challenge hurting popular speculative trades as government-bond yields climb and investors favor assets that stand to benefit from a brighter economic outlook.

"Early in the year, investors piled into SPACs to get in early with hot companies in sectors like electric vehicles and space travel. March's muted moves show that the excitement is waning as the first quarter draws to a close."

PRIVATE PAYROLLS POST BIGGEST GAIN IN SIX MONTHS — Reuters' Lucia Mutikani: "U.S. private employers hired the most workers in six months in March as more Americans got vaccinated against COVID-19, pushing the economy towards a broader reopening, which is expected to unleash a strong wave of pent-up demand in the coming months.

"Though the private payrolls gain shown in the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday was slightly below economists' expectations, the jump in hiring aligned with a recent improvement in labor market conditions. The broad-based increase was led by the leisure and hospitality industry."

ON THE PODS — In the latest "Banking with Interest" pod, host Rob Blackwell interviewed Dominic Ng, the CEO and president of $52 billion-asset East West Bank in California.

 

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