| | | | | |  | | By Sam Stein | Presented by Brilliant | With help from Myah Ward and Joanne Kenen HARD SELL — On the doorstep of signing a $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill into law, Joe Biden is already planning how to sell it to the public. But what if it can't be sold? Such a possibility may seem heretical to Democrats, considering how popular the bill currently is and how exuberant the party is over its likely passage — including declarations from the White House that it's the most progressive piece of legislation ever passed. Yet history suggests there may be limited political reward for it. That was the conclusion of a trio of political scientists after examining the electoral ripples of the Obama stimulus seven years after it passed. Katherine Levine Einstein of Boston University, Kris‐Stella Trump of the University of Memphis and Vanessa Williamson of Brookings looked at the political fallout of that bill and concluded that it was, in fact, "null" — overwhelmed by the massive tides of party polarization. Democratic voters were likely to reward their party's politicians for passing the Obama stimulus, but Republican voters tended to punish them for the increased spending. All told, a county had to be 65 percent Democratic for the Recovery Act to have shown "a statistically significant positive impact on change in Democratic vote share." For some House Democrats in swing districts, the bill may have actually had a negative impact. "This finding suggests that highly politicized spending can actually be counterproductive for an incumbent Democrat," the study read. "Rather than being 'unresponsive,' conservative counties punished Democrats for the spending they received from the stimulus." Biden's bill is fundamentally different from Obama's, and the lessons Democrats took from the '09 stimulus are a large part of the reason for that. While the Recovery Act included a swath of tax cuts, investments in infrastructure and green energy, along with small business loans and the like, Biden's Covid relief bill was designed with simplicity in mind. It would spend money on schools, states and the pandemic fight. It would then spend money on the unemployed, pensions and children. It would then spend money on the average American in the form of a $1,400 check. Showering voters with cash, the theory holds, is so simple and so tangible that political benefits will naturally flow from it. And, to a degree, Williamson said in an interview, there is logic in that thinking. "We were looking at roads built and things like that" when studying the Obama stimulus, she said. "There are some reasons to believe that a check in the mail is a more obvious, more traceable piece of government policy."
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Biden speaks from the State Dining Room as Vice President Kamala Harris stands behind him following the passage of the American Rescue Plan in the U.S. Senate at the White House on Saturday. | Getty Images | But there's a good reason to think that is wishful thinking too. Voters who receive more money in their pocket may, indeed, be grateful. But they also are likely to be forgetful. Polls showed in January 2004 that just one in five Americans recalled benefiting from President George W. Bush's 2003 tax cuts. As Democrats approached the 2010 midterms during Obama's first term, fewer than one in 10 Americans said they felt their taxes had gone down, even though they likely had. Tax cuts may be harder to notice than a debit card or check in your mailbox. But a lot of the policy benefits that the government showers on people go unobserved. In 2012, my then-colleague Arthur Delaney and I asked a dozen stimulus recipients in the Tampa area (host of that year's GOP convention) how Obama's bill benefited them. Only one recalled receiving Recovery Act funding. In 2016, I found the same dynamic evident in Elkhart, Ind. — a town that Obama world held up as an emblem of the righteousness of their economic policies. Even the rebate checks that were part of Bush's 2001 tax cuts, Williamson said, had a fleeting political impact. "You can get a temporary boost, but people don't remember," she said. And people got pandemic checks last year, then voted Donald Trump out of office. So how might Biden succeed where others have failed? The answer won't be found in some novel form of salesmanship but, rather, in the uniqueness of the crisis he is confronting. Obama's stimulus may have stunted the Great Recession. But it was months before voters felt the economic tide of the country turning. That made for tricky politics, said Robert Gibbs, who was then Obama's press secretary. "We knew early on that trumpeting in February, March or April a solution to something that people will feel pain on through the fall would project a message of being wildly out of touch," he said. Biden may not suffer from those constraints. His legislation passed the Senate as the grip of the pandemic appears to be loosening. He's giving a speech touting the bill Thursday and hitting the road thereafter, according to the White House. But in the end, he may have to hope, despite all the academic evidence, that the product sells itself. "I think there are real tangible aspects of this legislation that make a lot of sense for the administration to merchandise," said Gibbs. "You will get a vaccine quicker and a check. Neither of those things were a part of 2009." Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Thanks to all of our Nightly readers this past year. Reach out with news and tips at sstein@politico.com and rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @samstein and @renurayasam.
| | | | A message from Brilliant: Start learning with Brilliant and develop the problem-solving skills needed for a STEM career. Learn More | | | | | | GOLDILOCKS VS. PAPA BEAR — Congress is set to approve the largest injection of federal cash into a growing economy in U.S. history. The nearly $2 trillion stimulus package headed to Biden's desk Wednesday arrives after lawmakers approved nearly $4 trillion last year as the economy cratered under the coronavirus pandemic. What comes next is the subject of fevered economic debate in Washington and across the nation, chief economic correspondent Ben White writes. It could be a Morning in America moment that further turbocharges an economy already primed to pop, reduces economic inequality and lofts Biden to the kind of economic hero status enjoyed by the likes of Franklin Delano Roosevelt after the Depression and Ronald Reagan in the boom-time 1980s. Or it could be a fiery accelerant for global markets as gas prices surge, home prices jump, speculative assets soar and investors increasingly fear the kind of sharp inflation spike that can hit with remarkable speed if the government pours too much gasoline on an already warming economy.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TO JOIN AN IMPORTANT CONVERSATION: Power dynamics are changing. "Influence" is changing. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that all politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. "The Recast" is our new twice-weekly newsletter that breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics, policy and power in America. And POLITICO is recasting how we report on this crucial intersection, bringing you fresh insights, scoops, dispatches from across the country and new voices that challenge "business as usual." Don't miss out on this important new newsletter, SUBSCRIBE NOW. Thank you to our sponsor, Intel. | | | | | | | | HOW TO BRING WOMEN BACK TO THE WORKFORCE — Women's labor force participation rate has slipped to 57 percent, the lowest it has been since 1988. More than 2.3 million women have dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic, compared with 1.8 million men, according to a February National Women's Law Center report. Biden has called the economic crisis facing women a "national emergency" and says the $1.9 trillion relief plan set to pass Congress this week will help women who lost their jobs or left the workforce. Nightly's Myah Ward asked experts to lay out new policy recommendations, beyond the stimulus package, that would help women return to the workforce. These responses have been edited. "Women left the labor force because this was the first service-sector led recession and because of the burden of balancing work and caregiving with inadequate access to high-quality affordable child care and paid, job-protected family leave. Congress needs to pass a national paid leave plan and ensure all children have access to high-quality early childhood education and enrichment through affordable child care. "But we also need to make sure not to leave the individual women who have struggled during the pandemic behind. Our employers have for too long treated a gap in one's work history as a character flaw. Time out for caregiving is not a character flaw, and Congress and the administration should work with employers to ensure that those who have stepped out of the labor force have a path back to employment at wage and responsibility levels commensurate with their experience." — Betsey Stevenson, labor economist at the University of Michigan and former member of President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers "In thinking about how to get women back into the workforce in the long-term, we must ask, what weren't we doing to support women in the workforce before the pandemic? The gender pay gap was persistent. Black women earned $0.62 for every dollar earned by white men, and Hispanic or Latina women, $0.54. Child care costs were pushing families into poverty. We did not have universal paid family leave or universal paid sick leave. And more than 70 percent of single mothers were unable to access the full child tax credit because their earnings weren't high enough to qualify. These policy choices worked against women, and fixing them is necessary to support women who are in or are reentering the workforce." — Sophie Collyer, research director at the Center on Poverty and Social Policy at Columbia University "We need direct federal spending — not only tax credits — to increase child care slots, support providers in providing high-quality care and raise the shamefully low wages of child care workers. The federal government should also require at least 12 weeks of paid parental and sick leave." — Martha Ross, senior fellow, and Nicole Bateman, senior research analyst at Brookings Institution "Many women can't access the time they need to care for their loved ones or themselves, which is why we must continue federal paid sick leave and paid family leave policies and put further investments into child care. "We must also increase partnerships with community-based organizations and social enterprises focused on women in non-traditional occupations, continue to engage the private sector to hire justice-involved populations, and continue to co-locate employment and training related services in schools and community colleges in underserved communities. Forging paths for women into well-paying jobs and more importantly, careers, must be our top priority." — Hilda Solis, Los Angeles County supervisor, secretary of Labor under Obama administration from 2009-13 "Policymakers must create a robust care infrastructure to help women and other workers address caregiving responsibilities. This means providing comprehensive paid leave — a proven strategy for improving women's labor force participation; paid sick days; and high-quality, affordable child care. It also must include investments to increase pay and improve worker protections for care workers, who are disproportionately women of color. "Policymakers also must prioritize creating equitable workplaces and raising wages by increasing the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour, which will benefit 19 million women; strengthening equal pay protections; improving protections against sex discrimination and other forms of harassment; preventing forced arbitration; and removing barriers to collective organizing." — Jocelyn Frye, senior fellow with the Women's Initiative at the Center for American Progress "Even with care options, recovery won't mean a one-to-one return of the jobs women lost. Women will need job training and education opportunities to reenter the workforce. Providing supportive training programs will help women get back into the workforce and build financial security for themselves and their families." — C. Nicole Mason, President and CEO at the Institute for Women's Policy Research
| | | | A message from Brilliant:   | | | | | | COAL COUNTRY'S COVID SKEPTICS — The first in an occasional series about what the Covid immunization drive looks like around the world. Health care editor-at-large Joanne Kenen emails Nightly: Tiffany Lu is a family physician and the medical director of the Dayspring Family Health Center clinic in Williamsburg, Ky., near the Jellico Creek and the Tennessee border. Dayspring, which takes its name from Luke 1:78-79, has three clinics in the area, with roots dating back to the mid-1950s, when closure of some local coal mines brought hard times to the area. One of Lu's missions is to persuade people in the community who may be skeptical about the shot's safety or necessity to move from hesitancy to confidence. This is Appalachia, where almost all the patients are white and many are poor. After the first wave of mostly older people, who have endured a year of anxiety and isolation, it will be harder to get others to seek out the shots, Lu said. Vaccines, even routine ones like for flu, have never been a big hit around here. She hears a lot of concerns about the vaccine, and by no means are they all outlandish internet claims. "They say, 'They rushed the vaccine out, there's no data,' or 'I want to see what happens before I get it,' or ' It's too early to say; you've only been administering it for a month," said Lu, who understands where these questions are coming from and why. Even some of the staff at the clinic have turned down the shot, although the acceptance rate is slowly creeping up. Lu has been vaccinated. Lu's patients know the virus exists. People have fallen sick in Williamsburg, though not everyone has had a close friend or family member affected. But the virus just feels different in a place this rural. There's no "social distance" here. There's just distance. A suggestion to stay six feet away sounds peculiar to people who live "six miles away at baseline," she said. The local health department has begun to do some vaccine messaging, and the clinic is putting straightforward, factual information on its Facebook page. When patients not yet eligible for the coronavirus shot come in for other care, Lu and her fellow care providers routinely talk to them, coaxing them toward being accepting when their turn comes. But Lu knows there are counter messages out there — on social media or other "media silos where people are only hearing one perspective." "The misinformation is rampant, uncontrollable and absurd," she said. Lu, who was trained in Chicago, came to Dayspring partly because of her own religious commitment. She's been here for a few years, but by local standards she's still an outsider. She knows that what she says about the vaccines doesn't always get through. So she keeps trying. "People have questions that haven't been answered," she said. "They haven't gotten good, trustworthy answers. So I mostly just answer questions."
| | | — New Cuomo aide accuses him of harassment: Another aide to New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has reported harassment by the governor, this time during an encounter at New York's Executive Mansion , the Times Union reported today. The unnamed aide told a supervisor that the governor inappropriately touched her at the mansion, the governor's home, where she'd been summoned for work late last year, according to the newspaper. — Pentagon set to OK Guard deployment at Capitol: Officials said final details were being worked out, but Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected to give final approval to having Guard troops continue to provide security in Washington, at the request of the Capitol Police, due to worries about continued threats. Officials have been scrambling in recent days to determine if and how to fill the request for more than 2,000 Guard forces, as the original March 12 deadline for them to leave Washington looms. — CDC under scrutiny after struggling to report Covid race, ethnicity data: The Department of Health and Human Services' watchdog is examining how the CDC can improve the accuracy of its data on Covid-19's toll by race and ethnicity, according to two senior administration officials with direct knowledge of the investigation. — WH: Biden's dog caused 'minor injury' to unfamiliar person: The remarks from White House press secretary Jen Psaki came after CNN reported that the dogs, Champ and Major, were back at the Bidens' family home after a "biting incident" between Major, the younger of the two pets, and a member of White House security.
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| | | | Nightly asks you: What is something you postponed in 2020 that you're planning on doing in 2021? Send us your answer through the form, and we'll include select answers in a future edition.
| | | | FIND OUT THE LATEST WHISPERS FROM THE WEST WING: Add Transition Playbook to your daily reads to find out what's really happening inside the West Wing, who really has the president's ear, and get the latest scoop from inside cabinet departments and agencies. Track the people, policies and emerging power centers of the Biden administration. Don't miss out. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | WE HOPE THIS FINDS YOU WELL — For Nightly's first coronaversary, Joanne asked POLITICO'S quaran-team how language has changed since the "before times." So, dear Nightly bubble , pull on your most festive sweatpants and Zoom in as we pour ourselves quarantinis (we will ask Dr. Fauci about their reactogenicity) and we whip up a sheet pan meal. (Let's use the scallions still growing in our kitchen glassware.) Someone please place a pineapple artfully in the background in case Room Rater is watching. No slipping any sourdough to the pandemic puppies, it gives them coronasomnia (or worse). Also, are you OK? Your nose bridge wire looks tight under that KN95. Can't hear you, can you put it in the chat? We are grateful to essential workers, and have had it up to here with covidiots. Enough with the contactless delivery (though please tip generously). We find asynchronous learning useful when your virtual third grader spent Blursday binge-watching as you WFH. We overcompensated for that hanitizer shortage and we're over our fear of fomites — but it wasn't all for r-nought. Mask up. Avoid superspreaders. Vanquish hesitancy so we can vax our way to herd immunity while avoiding shot-enfreude. Stay safe. P.S. You're muted.
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