| Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for March 9, 2021 2021-03-09 
GBP/JPY has broken nicely above the former peak at 150.44 and should continue higher towards the next extension target at 152.54. This should complete blue wave v and red wave iii/ and set the stage for a new temporary correction towards support in the 150.21 - 150.37 area. It's possible that the correction will be slightly deeper than 150.21, but the potential downside should be limited and it should just be a question about time before the underlying uptrend resumes towards the ideal target in the 155.55 - 156.61 area. A break below 150.85 will indicate that a temporary top is in place and the correction in red wave iv/ is unfolding. R3: 152.54 R2: 152.00 R1: 151.60 Pivot: 150.99 S1: 150.85 S2: 150.37 S3: 150.21 Trading recommendation: We are long GBP from 149.25 and we will move our stop higher to 150.00. We have placed our stop-profit at 152.25 Elliott wave analysis of Gold for March 9, 2021 2021-03-09 
Gold is now testing triple support near 1,685 and we are looking for a corrective low in wave 4 and renewed upside pressure as wave 5 takes over. The next impulsive rally in wave 5 should take gold way above the former peak at 2,075 and see a minimum of 2,729 but it's worth to remember that fifth waves in commodities often extents indicating a much larger rally in wave 5. Short-term a break above minor resistance at 1,715 will indicate that the corrective decline in wave 4 has completed and wave 5 is in motion. While a break above resistance at 1,816 will confirm wave 5 is in motion. Trading recommendation: Buy a break above 1,715 and place your stop just below the low-point of wave 4 EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 9. COT reports. Euro remains under pressure, but buyers are not giving up. Aim for 1.1884 2021-03-09 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: Yesterday, the euro was under pressure after the release of weak data on Germany, which led to another large sell-off to the support area of 1.1836. The rise in US bond yields is likely to weigh on the pair in the near future, as recent improvements in the US labor market once again pointed to a stronger recovery in the US economy earlier this year. The next aid package approved by the US Senate also leads to the strengthening of the US dollar, counting on a more active growth in consumption in the future. Before talking about the prospects for the EUR/USD movement, let's see what happened in the futures market and how the Commitment of Traders (COT) positions changed. The COT report for March 2 revealed a sharp decline in long positions and a very large increase in short positions, which indicates a clear shift in the market towards sellers of risky assets. This is confirmed by the graph of the euro decline, which we have been observing for the third week. This time, it was not possible to quickly win back the next large decline in the pair. The sharp rise in bond yields in many developed countries continues, which plays in the favor of the dollar, as investors expect the United States to be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the greenback more attractive. The recent approval by the US Senate of a new bailout package and a $1,400 payment to all Americans affected by the pandemic makes risky assets even less attractive. Therefore, it is better not to rush to buy euros, but to wait for lower prices. A good advantage for the euro will be the moment when the active curtailment of quarantine and isolation measures begins in European countries: Germany has already announced its plan in this direction, but it has not yet come to the point. It is also necessary to wait for the moment when the service sector will start working in full force again, which will lead to an improved economic outlook and also strengthen the EUR/USD pair. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions declined from 228,501 to 222,655, while short non-commercial positions rose from 90,136 to 96,667. As a result, the total non-commercial net position declined again for the third consecutive week, from 138,365 to 125,988. The weekly closing price was 1.2048 against 1.2164 a week earlier. We have a fairly large amount of fundamental data on the European economy today: reports on the GDP of the eurozone and the level of employment for the 4th quarter of 2020 will be published in the first half of the day, and you also need to pay attention to the data on the foreign trade balance of Germany and industrial production in Italy... Good results could lead to an upward correction in EURUSD. Therefore, in the first half of the day, buyers will be focused on the breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1884, which they missed in yesterday's European session. Moving averages pass there, so this will not be so easy. Testing this area from top to bottom creates an excellent signal to open long positions in euros for the purpose of rising to a high of 1.1932, where I recommend taking profits. The next target will be resistance at 1.1994. If buyers are not active during the European session, and the eurozone report turns out to be disappointing, then we can expect the euro to be under pressure and then it could fall to the support area of 1.1836. However, I recommend opening long positions from this level only if a false breakout is formed. It is also necessary to pay attention to the divergence, which is formed on the MACD indicator. If the pair drops to the support area of 1.1794 and the divergence remains on this indicator, then I recommend opening long positions immediately for a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. The next major support level is seen around 1.1749. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: The bears have achieved a breakdown of 1.1884, and as long as trading is carried out below this range, then we can expect the pair to fall further. You can open new short positions in the first half of the day amid the downward trend but only if a false breakout is formed in the resistance area. This scenario may come true if we receive weak data on GDP in the eurozone and Germany's foreign trade balance. Strong divergence from forecasts for the worse will significantly affect the market and may result in bringing back large sellers. The closest target in this case will be the low of 1.1836, the breakout of which determines the pair's succeeding direction. A breakthrough of this level will lead to a larger will to pull down EUR/USD and lead the way to 1.1794, where I recommend taking profits. If we continue to observe an upward correction from the pair in the first half of the day, and the bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.1884, then it is best to postpone short positions until the 1.1932 area has been tested. From there, you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound in hopes of falling by 20-25 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.1994. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which shows that sellers are in control of the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.1836 area will lead to a new wave of decline for the euro. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.1884 area will cause the pair to rise. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 9. COT reports. Pound remains in the channel after protecting support at 1.2796. Bulls look forward to taking back control 2021-03-09 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: The pound has stopped falling against the dollar at the end of last week, which clearly indicates a pause that GBP/USD buyers can take advantage of in order to regain control of the market. However, it is still very early to say that the bears have retreated. Everyone is waiting for new fundamental reports on the UK and a decision by the authorities to abolish quarantine and isolation measures, which will lead to greater activity of the population and a sharp increase in the service sector. Before examining the technical picture of the pound, let's take a look at what happened in the futures market. The pound is still in demand only due to the sharp decline in short positions, although the weekly closing price of the pair was lower. Traders take losses and close short positions after the pound has slightly fallen from its highs. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for March 2 reduction in both short and long commercial positions. Closing short positions turned out to be stronger, which led to an increase in the positive delta. And although the growth in the yield of US bonds is providing serious support to the US dollar at the moment, in the medium term, bulls can only use the pair's correction in order to enter the market at more attractive prices. The anticipation of a quarantine rollback in March this year will support the pound, so will new measures to help the UK population in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, recently announced by Treasury Secretary Rishi Sunak. Long non-commercial positions declined from 68,266 to 65,138. At the same time, short non-commercials fell from 37,288 to 29,056, which retains good prospects for the pound's succeeding growth. As a result, the non-commercial net position rose to 36,082 from 30,978 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 13,928 against 14,067. The downward correction in the pound will attract new buyers. As for the technical forecast, the initial task of those who choose to buy the pound is to return and settle at the resistance of 1.3860, which the bulls missed last Friday. Considering that trading is now being carried out in the area of the moving averages, being able to test this level from top to bottom can create a signal for opening long positions in hopes to form an upward correction, which will open a direct way to the high of 1.3931, where I recommend taking profits. The next target will be 1.3995, however, we can't reach it without a new batch of good fundamental reports. If the downward correction of GBP/USD continues this morning, then it is best not to rush to buy, but wait for a false breakout in the area of the lower border of the horizontal channel at 1.3796, which was formed yesterday. If buyers are not active, then I recommend waiting for the 1.3732 low to be tested and buy the pound from there on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 25-30 points within the day. The more the pound falls, the more attractive it is for new buyers. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: Important fundamental reports will not be released today, and judging by the trend that was observed since the middle of last week, the pound may still be under pressure. Bears are in control of the market as long as trade is below the resistance of 1.3860. Forming a false breakout there in the first half of the day will return the pressure to the pair and lead to forming a new downward trend to the support area of 1.3796, on the breakdown of which the pair's succeeding direction depends. A breakout and being able to test this level from the bottom up creates another entry point into short positions for the purpose of pulling down GBP/USD so it can reach a low like 1.3732, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pair grows during the European session and bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.3860, then I recommend not to rush to sell, but to wait for the 1.3931 high to be updated. You can open short positions from there immediately on a rebound while counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen only at 1.3995. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible upward correction in the pair. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.3850 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. A breakout of the lower boundary at 1.3796 will increase the pressure on the pair. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD forecast for March 9. COT report. Andrew Bailey says about positive post-pandemic UK's economic prospects but warns about challenges ahead. 2021-03-09 GBP/USD – 1H. 
GBP/USD – 1H. Hi everyone! Yesterday, on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair traded in a narrow sideways channel, which I did not indicate on the chart. Trading was held slightly below the previous sideways channel and near the correction level of 61.8% - 1.3820. Thus, currently, speculators have a different view on the future trajectory of the pound sterling. Besides, the Fibonacci level of 61.8% is weak and it cannot be used for determining market signals. Monday was rather uneventful for the British currency. Notably, the euro incurred losses while the pound sterling remained flat despite the fact that both currencies had similar market positions and news drivers. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivered a speech yesterday. He said, "there is light at the end of the tunnel". He also mentioned the falling coronavirus infections and a successful vaccine rollout. "There are reasons to believe that so-called long-term scarring damage to the economy will be lower than in past recessions. If I had to summarize the diagnosis, it's positive but with large doses of cautionary realism," he stressed. Given the improvement in the epidemiological situation, he believes that the economy may get back on track faster. The Bank of England will do whatever is necessary to stimulate economic growth. Unfortunately, Bailey did not address the issue of negative rates, which had long been of interest to traders. There were also no hints of possible changes in monetary policy in the near future. Today, a member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, Andy Haldane, will also make a speech that may contain some hints. Let me remind you that several members of the Board of Governors of the Bank of England have long been of the opinion that the key rate may be lowered in the coming months. GBP/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the pound/dollar pair fell to the uptrend line. The pair did not rebound from it but it failed to close below the trend line either. According to the MACD indicator, a bullish divergence was formed, which points to the likelihood of an upward reversal and the pound's renewed growth to the correction level of 161.8% - 1.3979. If the price closes below the trend line, investor sentiment is likely to become bearish. GBP/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the quotes continue to lose ground in the direction of their upward trend line. In the long term, traders' sentiment is likely to remain bullish. GBP/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed above the second downtrend line. Thus, the pound sterling has a better chance of continuing its bullish movement in the long term News overview: On Monday, the macroeconomic calendar lacked any important releases. There was no significant intraday movement for the second day in a row. Economic calendar for the US and UK: UK - Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Andy Haldane will deliver a speech (13-00 GMT). US - The economic calendar is bereft of important releases from the US. So, there will be no market-driving news today for the currency. Traders are likely to focus their attention on the speech of Andy Haldane, which may contain some hints about the future of monetary policy. COT (Commitments of traders): 
The latest COT report published on March 2 turned out to be quite interesting for the pound sterling. In comparison with the euro report, investor sentiment for the reporting week has changed dramatically for the pound sterling. The trading sentiment for the euro has become more bearish, while the pound sterling speculators have turned more bullish. This is a very significant difference. Perhaps this is the reason why the euro has been declining for two months, while the pound sterling has been losing in value for only two weeks. The number of traders in the non-commercial category lowered by 11,000. However, the number of long positions decreased by 2,600, and short positions fell by 8.200. Thus, major traders still rely on the growth of the British currency. Outlook for GBP/USD and trading recommendation: Long positions can be opened in case the price rebounds from the trend line on the 4-hour chart with the potential target levels of 1.3900 and 1.3980. Short positions can be opened if the price closes below the trend line on the 4-hour chart with the potential target levels of 1.3721 and 1.3625. However, at the moment, neither a clear rebound nor a clear close under the trend line has occurred! TERMINOLOGY: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy the currency not to obtain a speculative profit but to ensure current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price dynamics. Indicator analysis. Daily review of the EUR/USD currency pair for March 9, 2021 2021-03-09 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). Today, from the level of 1.1846 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick), the market will try to start moving up with the target of 1.1954 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). After this level is tested, the price may continue to work up with the target of 1.2075 – the next historical resistance level (blue dotted line). 
Fig. 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis – up;
- Fibonacci levels – up;
- Volumes – up;
- Candlestick analysis – up;
- Trend analysis – down;
- Bollinger bands – up;
- Weekly chart – down.
General conclusion: Today, from the level of 1.1846 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick), the price will try to start moving up with the target of 1.1954 – the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). After this level is tested, the price may continue to work up with the target of 1.2075 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.846 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick), the price will try to make a downward movement with the target of 1.1811 – the historical support level (blue dotted line). After this level is tested, the price may continue to work downwards with the target of 1.1778 – the 76.4% retracement level (red dotted line). Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for March 9, 2021 2021-03-09 Technical Market Outlook: After the GBP/USD pair had made a lower low at the level of 1.3778, the volatility has decreased. The bears continue to move down towards the key short-term support zone located between the levels of 1.3780 - 1.3757 and any violation of this level will lead to another wave down towards the level of 1.3624. The intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3857 and 1.3889. Please keep and eye on the weekly time frame chart as well as there is an interesting trend reversal candlestick known as Shooting Star at the very top of the last rally towards 1.4224. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4174 WR2 - 1.4089 WR1 - 1.3934 Weekly Pivot - 1.3853 WS1 - 1.3702 WS2 - 1.3617 WS3 - 1.3458 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for March 9, 2021 2021-03-09 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of 1.1835 which is below the Fibonacci 1:1 extension target located at the level of 1.1862. This level is a 100% Fibonacci extension of the wave A to the downside, so some kind of profit taking should be expected at this level. The 61% Fibonacci retracement level of the whole last wave up located at the level of 1.1887 had been violated as well, so the bears might extend the down move towards 1.1789. The key short term technical support is located at the level of 1.1813, so please keep an eye on this level because any violation will lead to another wave down towards 1.1799 - 1.1789 zone. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2243 WR2 - 1.2176 WR1 - 1.2024 Weekly Pivot - 1.1958 WS1 - 1.1798 WS2 - 1.1738 WS3 - 1.1580 Trading Recommendations: The long term trend on EUR/USD pair remains up on monthly time frame char, however the weekly time frame chart show the counter-trend corrective cycle is in progress. This corrective cycle has not been completed yet, because the key level for bulls is located at 1.1608. As long as the market trades above this level the up trend is valid and all of the down waves should be used to open long positions. 
EUR/USD. March 9. COT report. Fed is not worried about rising Treasury yields 2021-03-09 EUR/USD – 1H. 
On March 8, the EUR/USD pair continued the process of falling and it consolidated under the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1873) by the end of the day. Thus, the process of falling can now continue in the direction of the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.1772). The downward trend corridor continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bearish". Meanwhile, US government bond yields continued to rise on Monday and rose to 1.6% during the day. This point concerns many people, and until recently it was believed that the Fed was among these individuals. However, on Monday, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari, said that he would be forced to think about such a phenomenon as a strong increase in the real yield of 10-year treasuries. However, while the nominal yield has increased to 1.6%, the real yield is only 0.66%. According to Kashkari, if the real yield were to grow at the same rate as the nominal one, it could mean that the current size of the stimulus program is no longer enough and it would have to be expanded. Let me remind you that the real yield is nominal, adjusted for inflation. That is, if inflation is higher than the nominal yield, then in general, the treasuries will be unprofitable for investors. This often happens with treasuries of any duration. The lower the negative yield, the more profitable it is for the state and the less profitable it is for investors. Therefore, at low or negative rates, the demand for treasuries of all terms falls, which forces their nominal yield to grow. And the strong growth of this indicator is already making the Fed and the government nervous. However, as Kashkari assures, nothing terrible happened. Earlier, Jerome Powell also did not make any hints about possible intervention from the Fed. EUR/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes continue the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729). The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth. However, the hourly chart is now a higher priority. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today. EUR/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair have made a consolidation under the upward trend corridor, so the process of falling continues in the direction of the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1822). Closing the pair's rate below this level will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.1566). EUR/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. News overview: On March 8, the calendars of economic events in the United States and the European Union were empty. Thus, the influence of the information background was absent, which did not prevent traders from continuing to buy the dollar. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: EU - change in GDP (10:00 GMT). On March 9, the European Union and the United States will release one economic report for two - on GDP in the Eurozone for the fourth quarter, which may attract the attention of traders. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
Last Friday, another COT report was released, and after three fairly neutral reports, it turned out to be quite aggressive. The number of long contracts concentrated in the hands of the "Non-commercial" category of traders decreased by 8 thousand, and the number of short contracts increased by 8 thousand. Thus, the mood of speculators has become much more bearish, which generally coincides with what is happening on the euro/dollar pair in the last two weeks. Based on this and the daily chart data, the probability of a further drop in the pair's quotes is growing. However, I remind you that the report for February 2 also showed discouraging figures, but a few days after it, a new increase in euro quotes began. In general, the number of long contracts in the hands of speculators still significantly exceeds the number of short contracts. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to sell the pair at the close of quotes under the level of 127.2% (1.1873) with a target of 1.1772 on the hourly chart. Now you can leave sales open for this purpose. I recommend buying the pair when closing above the downward trend corridor on the hourly chart with targets of 1.2021 and 1.2063. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 9 2021-03-09 
Significant progress can be observed in the United States. Incidents have decreased to below 50,000, which is a very good news. In the UK, some quarantine measures have been lifted In Germany, the government promised to dramatically accelerate vaccination, to up to 10 million doses per week. Prime Minister Mario Draghi also pledged to accelerate vaccination in Italy. 
EUR/USD Euro moved up a bit, after breaking through 1.1990. Open short positions after a rebound from 1.1990. A report on US inflation will be published this week (Wednesday), and it will most likely affect volatility and market sentiment. Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 9, 2021 2021-03-09 Yesterday's macroeconomic calendar appeared to be entirely empty when looking at it for the first time, so the Euro currency declined by inertia. Now, the trend that began at the end of February is continuing. However, the pound sterling is still in one place, and the UK did not publish anything yesterday either. On the contrary, individual countries in Europe published something. For example, Spain's rate of decline in industrial production surged from -1.5% to -2.2%, against the expected slowdown to -0.8%. However, its statistics are not so important compared to German ones. Unfortunately, things are worse in Germany. Here, the 1.0% growth of industrial production was replaced by a decline of -3.9%. Therefore, we can say that the industrial growth was extremely temporary. The industry grew for only one month, and then followed by a decline again. It is worth noting that this is about the largest economy in all of Europe. So, this is already quite a serious reason for the euro's weakening. Industrial production (Germany): 
Today, Europe will release its third estimate of the GDP for the fourth quarter, which should confirm again the acceleration in the economic downturn from -4.3% to -5.0%. However, it is unlikely that these may result in the weakening of the Euro currency. This is because investors already expect such numbers. However, the trend of weakening of the single European currency will not go away. After all, there is a slowdown in the rate of economic recession in the US. To simply put it, the European economy is experiencing a deepening recession, while the American one is recovering. In addition, Italy's rate of decline in industrial production for January may rise from -2.0% to -3.8%. Consequently, the economic downturn in Europe is only getting worse, which clearly does not positively affect the euro. In turn, the pound may continue to stand still, as nothing will be published in the UK today just like yesterday. Industrial production (Italy): 
The Euro currency managed to noticeably weaken its position, declining below the area of November 2020, that is, 1.1850. Such a sharp downward trend could locally oversold short positions, which may result in a pullback followed by stagnation at 1.1800/1.1900. 
The GBP/USD pair started the trading week with a market stagnation in the range of 1.3780/1.3870. It is very possible that such a bright accumulation may lead to speculative activity, where it is worth working on the breakdown of a particular border. 
Analysis of EUR/USD for March 9, 2021 2021-03-09 The vaccination rate in the EU is accelerating. Hi everyone! Yesterday, the US dollar exhibited strength across the board. The EUR/USD pair fell below the important level of 1.1900 and ended trading on Monday at 1.1845. I will give a more detailed technical analysis of this pair a bit later. In this analysis, we will briefly talk about the news releases from different countries and expected macroeconomic events. The news about the COVID-19 pandemic came under the spotlight of investors again. In the United States, the epidemiological situation remains out of control and the number of daily new cases and deaths is still quite high. At the same time, the US government is actively vaccinating the population. So, the US authorities believe that in the near future, Americans will develop a sufficiently high herd immunity in order to stop the spread of the coronavirus. In turn, the EU government is also increasing the pace of vaccination. Notably, the initial plan to vaccinate more EU citizens failed. The epidemiological situation in a number of European countries remains quite worrying. So, Italy became the first European country where the total number of deaths from COVID-19 exceeded 100,000. No wonder, many EU citizens experience despair, irritation, fatigue, and other similar feelings. They are already quite tired of all kinds of quarantine restrictions that hinder their normal lifestyle. Yet, there is nothing to be done. In order to curb the spread of the coronavirus, lockdowns and various restrictive measures should stay in effect. Today's economic calendar contains quite important macroeconomic events. The most crucial one for the euro/dollar pair will be the publication of the final data on the EU GDP. It will be unveiled at 13:00 Moscow time. The economic calendar for the US is bereft of any important economic reports. Daily 
At the beginning of the article, I mentioned that on Monday, the euro/dollar pair significantly declined. My forecast about the downward scenario in case the pair would reach the range of 1.1830-1.1800 was almost fully justified. The quote fell slightly short of the indicated area, reaching the low of 1.1843, its lowest level on March 8. Yet, the pair hit the levels of 1.1900 and 1.1875. At the moment of completing this analysis, the EU /USD pair was correcting upwards, trading near the strong technical level of 1.1880. When the pair rises to the area of 1.1900-1.1930, it may face strong resistance and retreat. If so, it will drop to 1.1822-1.1800 where the orange 200 exponential moving average runs and the significant level of 1.1800 is located. H1 
In order to move on to the trading recommendations, let us look at the hourly chart of EUR/USD. I stretched the grid of the Fibonacci tool for a fall of 1.2112-1.1835. As you can see, currently, the pair is approaching a 50-day simple moving average and the Fibonacci level of 23.6 from the indicated decline. I assume that short deals for the euro/dollar pair should be considered from the price zone of 1.1890-1.1905. The signal for opening short positions will be the appearance of particular candlestick patterns in this zone on the or four-hour charts. It is recommended to open short positions at more favorable prices near 1.1930. This level is quite strong when it comes to technical indicators. There is also a black 89 exponential moving average there. It is also recommended to refrain from opening long trades. Given the corrective upward movement, it is better to open positions along with the trend that is currently a downward one. Good luck! EUR/USD. dollar bulls took a break in anticipation of inflation data 2021-03-09 During the Asian session, the US dollar index paused its growth, after reaching a multi-month high of 92.523 (high since November 2020). The downward pullback was primarily due to a decline in 10-year Treasury yields. In particular, it made a sharp rebound after it reached a local high of 1.606%. Now, this indicator is at around 1.570%. There were no noticeable fundamental reasons for such dynamics – against the background of an almost empty macroeconomic calendar, the markets moved by the inertia of last week's events. Yesterday's US stock market closed mixed, with key indices showing contradictory dynamics. Here, the Dow Jones index increased by 0.97%, the S&P 500 index declined by 0.54%, while the NASDAQ Composite index immediately fell by 2.41%. On the other hand, there was growth in utilities, telecommunications and finance. Negative dynamics, in turn, was recorded in the sectors of technology, health care and sales of consumer goods. In other words, it is impossible to say at the moment that the demand for risky assets has increased among traders. 
In general, the whole fundamental background contributes to the US dollar's further strengthening. However, a consolidation is observed, as the initial informational impulse caused by the strong Nonfarm and Senate's adoption of the aid package has slowly faded. In this case, the dollar bulls paused, encouraging the preliminary results. In a pair with the EUR, the USD strengthened by more than 300 points. It should be noted that the EUR/USD pair declined from 1.2180 to the current level of 1.1850 for a week and a half. At the same time, the downward trend was almost recoilless. Although the US dollar has suspended its growth and shows temporary weakness, buyers were able to develop only a 30-point upward correction, which means that they are not able to reverse the situation for a pair. The dollar, in turn, continues to enjoy increased demand for several interrelated reasons. One of the fundamental factors is the market's general confidence that the US Fed will be forced to tighten the parameters of monetary policy earlier than expected in response to the irregular growth of basic economic parameters, primarily inflation. All other factors (US macroeconomic reports, comments from the Fed representatives, the growth of treasury yields) are like confirmation of the main idea, which will likely push the dollar upwards. In this context, we can consider the last Nonfarm data, which was not clearly viewed individually but through the prism of the Fed's possible intentions. The labor market is recovering at a faster pace compared to the FRS fall-winter forecasts, and this fact suggests that the US economy will show strong growth in the second half of the year especially amid cash injections, forcing the Fed to take appropriate measures. In response to such assumptions, Jerome Powell stated that the regulator will allow the US economy to relax first before starting to tighten monetary policy. However, his dovish rhetoric does not stop the dollar bulls. The market remains confident that the Fed will not be able to ignore the inflation growth and will eventually give up under the attack of objective arguments, curtailing QE ahead of time and raising the interest rate. This is the reason why the results of tomorrow's release of US inflation for February are so important for the EUR/USD pair in particular, and for dollar pairs in general. According to forecasts, the general consumer price index should show positive dynamics – both on an annual and monthly basis (+ 0.4% m/m + 1.7% y/y). The core index should also show slight growth, excluding food and energy prices. In monthly terms, it is expected to rise to 0.2%, while in annual terms, up to 1.5%. If both components of the release emerged in the "green" zone, the US dollar will receive another reason to strengthen. Meanwhile, the growth in the US inflation will become another kind of hindrance for the EUR/USD pair to continue the downward trend. 
It is recommended to make trading decisions on the pair based on the results of tomorrow's release. If inflation disappoints investors, buyers of the pair may decide on a larger upward correction. However, it is fair to note that the overall fundamental background remains in favor of the USD. In my opinion, the bearish mood on the EUR/USD pair still remains, given the dynamics of the US labor market, Senate's approval of the "American Rescue Plan" and the pace of vaccination against COVID. The priority of short positions is also indicated by technical signals. On the daily chart, the pair continues to be below the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator and all the Ichimoku indicator lines, which shows a bearish signal "Parade of Lines". The first downward target is the "round" psychologically important level of 1.1800. The main target is located just below, that is, the support level of 1.1750 (lower line of the Bollinger Bands on W1 and the Tenkan-sen line on M1). Forex forecast 03/09/2021 on AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USDX and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga 2021-03-09 Let's take a look at the technical picture of AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USDX and Bitcoin on the daily time frame chart.
Author's today's articles: Torben Melsted  Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets. Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Mihail Makarov  - Alexandr Davidov  No data Ivan Aleksandrov  Ivan Aleksandrov Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko
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