| | | | | | | Presented By PwC | | | | Axios Future | | By Bryan Walsh ·Mar 10, 2021 | | Welcome to Axios Future, brought to you in between consuming Walter Issacson's brilliant new CRISPR book "The Code Breaker," which is even better if you imagine it read in his smooth as a mint julep New Orleans accent. 🎥 Get smarter, faster with our short course on vaccines. Today's Smart Brevity count: 1,910 words or about 7 minutes. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Rising food prices could presage global unrest |  Global food prices have been rising for months, putting additional pressure on the world's poorest people. Why it matters: Past spikes in the price of food staples have been connected to periods of social unrest, including the Arab Spring. If prices continue to rise — on top of the pain of the pandemic — the world could be in for a bumpy future. By the numbers: Global food prices rose by 2.4% in February, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index. - That marks the ninth straight month of price rises, causing the index — which is adjusted for inflation — to reach its highest level since July 2014.
Details: In the U.S., prices rose by nearly 3% in 2020, roughly double the rate of inflation, putting pressure on the poorest Americans, who spend more than one-third of their income on food. Flashback: Governments are right to worry about the effects of rising food prices. Past spikes in 2011 helped fuel protests in the Arab world, and record-high prices in 2008 contributed to instability throughout the global South. - A growing food crisis in Sudan — where inflation is in the triple digits and the price of bread has more than doubled — has helped lead to rising protests against the joint military-civilian government.
What they're saying: "These price spikes are destabilizing, not just because they induce a lot of hardship on communities and households, but also because there is this expectation that the government will do something about it," Cullen Hendrix, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Bloomberg. - "The implications are going to last longer and beyond the pandemic."
How it works: The food price spike has multiple interlocking causes: COVID-19 lockdowns "are a wrecking ball for food systems," notes Lawrence Haddad, the executive director for the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition, while broader inflation and extreme weather events like February's winter storms in Texas play a role as well. - But the crisis is also a reminder of how interconnected — and vulnerable — the global food system is, with the world's poorest dependent on food flowing from the biggest producers.
- In a study published in Nature Food this month, researchers found that restrictions by as few as three key exporters would be enough to increase the price of wheat by 70%, while maize and rice would rise by 40% and 60%, respectively.
Yes, but: Prices are well below their 2011 peak, and there are signs that grain price increases are slowing even as wheat output is forecast to reach a record high of 780 million tonnes next season. The bottom line: More than politics or the pandemic, it is food scarcity that will bring people out into the streets, which is likely to make the next few months unstable ones. |     | | | | | | 2. A ring to protect New York's shoreline |  | | | Photo illustration of proposed River Ring project in New York. Credit: Bjarke Ingels Group and James Corner Field Operations | | | | A proposed project to redevelop part of New York's East River shoreline demonstrates a different way to protect cities against the threat of sea-level rise. Why it matters: The devastation caused by 2012's Superstorm Sandy demonstrated the vulnerability of coastal cities to storm surges. "Soft edge" development could provide more robust protection while providing needed access to the waterfront. How it works: The River Ring project — designed by the Bjarke Ingels Group and James Corner Field Operations on a site owned by Two Trees Management — would create a 6-acre waterfront park in northern Brooklyn, along the edges of the East River. - Half of the development would be parkland in a fast-growing neighborhood that features little green space, while the rest would feature protected in-river access, including a series of beams and breakwater that would protect the community in the case of a storm surge.
- In the event of a storm, the tidal basin created by the project — capable of holding up to 4 million gallons of open water — would be permitted to flood, mitigating any damage.
What they're saying: "Most developments look at the waterfront, especially after Sandy, as trying to create a bulkhead," says Lisa Switkin, senior principal at James Corner Field Operations. "But we're trying to create a new model for softer urban shorelines." By the numbers: New York City is considering a number of different options to protect itself against the threat of sea-level rise and storms, including a $119 billion seawall. - But critics argue such hard barriers risk creating negative ecological side effects, and may well be insufficient to account for sea-level rise by the time they're completed.
The bottom line: Nearly a third of the U.S. population lives in a coastal county, up 15.3% from 2000, and with sea levels set to continue to rise, we'll need to figure out a way to live with water, not against it. | | | | | | | | 3. Short-term worker optimism belied by longer-term concerns |  | | | Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios | | | | A new survey of American workers finds signs of hope for the immediate future, but longer-term worries about career advancement. The big picture: With the pandemic loosening, hiring is expected to pick up dramatically, but the specter of automation and obstacles to reskilling dims the picture for the future. By the numbers: In a new survey of more than 5,000 American adults conducted by the University of Phoenix Career Institute that comes after a wretched year for employment, 78% of respondents say they feel hopeful about the future of their careers, and nearly 80% report they feel highly employable. - 7 in 10 say they feel prepared to search for a new job now if necessary.
Yes, but: The survey also found the economic trauma of COVID-19 has taken its toll on American workers. - 1 in 3 respondents said the pandemic had taken their career off course — considerably more than the number of Americans who lost their jobs over the past year.
- The optimism that survey respondents reported feeling now wanes over the longer-term, with 1 in 5 saying their jobs had become automated during the pandemic, and nearly half worrying that their job skills will eventually become outdated because of technology.
Of note: Nearly half of respondents are actively worried about losing their jobs because of the economy, with higher levels of concern among women, people of color and Generation Z. What they're saying: "Americans come through in the survey as being really resilient and gritty, but we identify some of the help they'll need to remain that way," says John Woods, chief academic officer at the University of Phoenix. - "That could be help with networking, upskilling or mental health support."
The bottom line: Automation isn't yet the full job destroyer that many Americans fear it will be, but workers will need reskilling help to be in a better position for the future. Share this story | | | | | | | | A message from PwC | | A good sign: more workers are open to adopting COVID safety protocols | | |  | | | | Just a third of U.S. workers were comfortable having their temperature taken at work in May 2020. - Now 70% report being "very willing" to get at-work temperature checks, PwC's Workforce Pulse Survey found.
Why it's important: This shift employee in sentiment may bode well for vaccine rollouts. | | | | | | 4. The Pentagon's multibillion-dollar "forever chemicals" problem |  | | | Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Photo: Greg Nash-Pool/Getty Images | | | | Multiple states are pressuring the Department of Defense to address its widespread "forever chemical" problem after the Pentagon admitted that hundreds of drinking-water systems were contaminated through the use of flame-retardant foam at military bases around the country, my Axios colleague Jacob Knutson writes. Why it matters: As alarm over the health and environmental impact of these chemicals continues to grow, the DOD has said cleaning the pollution and finding the alternative fire-fighting system that Congress has demanded will cost billions of dollars. The big picture: Seven states — New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, New Jersey, New Hampshire and Vermont — have passed regulations on per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in drinking water. - Some of those states are now struggling with how to enforce those standards when the federal government violates them, according to Bloomberg Law.
By the numbers: The DOD told Congress in 2018 that at least 564 public or private drinking-water systems near suspected or known releases of Aqueous film forming foams (AFFF) by the DOD had been contaminated with PFOS and PFOA, two types of PFAS that have been linked to adverse health effects, including an increased risk of developing cancer. - It also disclosed that 24 drinking-water systems that it operated contained levels of these chemicals above standards in the EPA's drinking water health advisory, according to a 2019 department report.
- The department said it notified all people relying on those systems to stop drinking the water and provided an alternative source of water after the contamination was discovered.
- "No one — on or off base — is drinking water above the Environmental Protection Agency's lifetime health advisory level where DOD is the known source of PFAS," Peter Hughes, a spokesperson for the DOD, told Axios.
How it works: AFFF is a firefighting foam used by the DOD since the 1970s to quickly extinguish fuel fires on ships and airplanes. - Because of their strength, PFAS can remain in the environment for hundreds of years while accumulating in fish, wildlife and humans.
Read the full story | | | | | | | | 5. Worthy of your time | | Do young people really need the office? (Emma Jacobs — Financial Times) - Some managers think younger workers will particularly benefit from a return to the office — but many of the workers themselves have doubts. Separately, I'm currently writing this from a corner in our kid's bedroom, in case you're wondering what I think.
How to become an intellectual in Silicon Valley (Aaron Timms — The Baffler) - A radical critique of the venture capitalist-cum-sage, or how to look like a smart person on tech Twitter.
In 2018, diplomats warned of risky coronavirus experiments in a Wuhan lab. No one listened (Josh Rogin — Politico Magazine) - An excerpt from a new book that might red pill you on the possibility of lab-leak origins for COVID-19.
Are you ready to be a techno-optimist again? (David Rotman — MIT Tech Review) - A look back at yesterday's technologies of the future provides measured hope for the progress to come.
| | | | | | | | 6. 1 cannabis thing: Better highs through genomics |  | | | Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios | | | | A startup is selling DNA tests that it says can provide guidance to the right kinds of cannabis products for your genome. Why it matters: As the wave of cannabis legalization rolls on, there's a market for services that can match users who don't know their Purple Diesel from their Sour Diesel with the appropriate product — all the way down to their genes. How it works: For $199 — or $49.95 if you upload your genomic data from another service — Southern California-based EndoCanna Health will test a user's DNA and provide them with a profile that suggests the kind of cannabis products that match their genetic makeup, as well as where to find them (legally). - "The test can show someone how to have an optimum experience with cannabinoids that are personally geared to their own endocannabinoid system," says Len May, the company's CEO.
Details: Endocannabinoids are molecules made by the body naturally, and they play a role in how users will respond to ingesting or smoking cannabis - The report breaks down results into different categories, including anxiety and drug metabolism.
- So users with a slower metabolism and higher anxiety would want to be mindful when consuming an edible with the psychoactive chemical THC, lest they end up with a Maureen Dowd experience.
The catch: The science of personalizing health with genomic data is still in its infancy, and research into cannabis has been restricted because of the plant's shifting legal status, which limits how much guidance you can take from any DNA test. The bottom line: Beyond illustrating how once-revolutionary genetic sequencing is quickly becoming a commodity, EndoCanna's test points the way toward a future of "personalization for everything," says May. - For those just venturing out into the green new world, remember the old pothead adage: "start low and go slow."
- And whatever your test shows, don't let legal cannabis become a gateway drug into getting into Phish.
| | | | | | | | A message from PwC | | A good sign: more workers are open to adopting COVID safety protocols | | | | | | | | Just a third of U.S. workers were comfortable having their temperature taken at work in May 2020. - Now 70% report being "very willing" to get at-work temperature checks, PwC's Workforce Pulse Survey found.
Why it's important: This shift employee in sentiment may bode well for vaccine rollouts. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters.
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