Wednesday, March 31, 2021

☕️ Pull the lever

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Daily Brew

SeaVees

Good morning. In the latest edition of #brandfails, Volkswagen said it wasn't changing the name of its US division to "Voltswagen" after all, admitting that its Tuesday announcement was just an April Fools' joke to promote its new SUV, even though everyone believed it. 

The lesson? April Fools' isn't like Halloween or your most popular friend's birthday...it doesn't last an entire week.

MARKETS 1-DAY PERFORMANCE

 
NASDAQ
-0.11%
13,045.40
S&P
-0.32%
3,958.55
Dow
-0.31%
33,066.96
Bitcoin
-0.47%
$58,843.56
10-Year
+0.70 bps
1.722%
Discovery
+5.36%
$43.44
 

*Stock data as of market close, crypto as of 8pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level in more than a year, and if you've been reading the Brew in 2021 you know exactly what's coming next: Big Tech stocks tumbled. The good news is that the fallout from the collapse of Archegos Capital Management has not vibrated across the markets as feared.
  • Economy: Consumer confidence hit a one-year high in March with help from the most recent round of $1,400 stimulus checks and vaccines. Over 37% of US adults have now received at least one dose.

MEDIA

Cameo Makes an Appearance

Gilbert Gottfried cameo

Cameo

Getting Gilbert Gottfried to roast your friends is priceless. Cameo, the platform that allows users to do just that, is not. Cameo is now valued at $1 billion after raising $100 million in Series C funding yesterday. 

It's cantering with a growing herd of unicorns that focus on getting content from creators → fans with the least amount of friction possible. That herd really picked up the pace yesterday, because in addition to Cameo…

  • Substack, a paid newsletter platform, is raising $65 million from venture capital firms at a valuation nearing $650 million, according to Axios. 
  • Unsplash, a site full of fledgling photographers' stock images, was acquired by Getty Images, its bigger and more expensive rival. 
  • Betty Labs, which runs a Clubhouse-for-sports live audio platform called Locker Room, was acquired by Spotify.

What's causing the "creator economy" to swell?

Platforms like Cameo and Substack were already getting more popular as fans sought out a more direct connection with creators, but the pandemic made backstage content = all content. Deprived of new movies and bored of baking sourdough, more people gravitated online to connect with their increasingly accessible idols. 

And as the financials for these companies show, cutting out the legacy media middleman means more money for everyone else...

  • Patreon, which lets fans pay for bespoke creator content, became a unicorn last year. 
  • Also in 2020, the similar-but-significantly-more-NSFW platform OnlyFans made $300 million in profit on $400 million in revenue, per The Information.
  • Cameo said it made $100 million in gross revenue last year and left a lot more than chump change on the table for creators, 150+ of whom made more than $100,000. 

Looking ahead...this story could only culminate in crypto land. Dapper Labs, the company that created the NFT marketplace NBA Top Shot, wrapped up a $305 million financing round yesterday, raising its valuation to $2.6 billion. The company's success represents yet another trendy way for creators, like artists or musicians, to monetize their work—by minting it as an NFT (non-fungible token). 

        

WORK

Somebody Call Steve Kornacki

There's a close race to follow in Bessemer, AL, that decides whether or not 6,000 Amazon warehouse workers unionize. But like "election night" 2020, the count may take several days.

The country is watching

Organizers want the Bessemer workers to join the Retail, Wholesale, and Department Store Union, which helps members bargain for better pay and working conditions. High-profile figures ranging from NFL athletes to the president have voiced support. 

  • Organizers have tied the rhetoric of their campaign to the civil rights movement. An estimated 80% of the warehouse's workers are Black. 

Amazon's response: It raised its minimum wage to $15/hour—twice the minimum required in Alabama—a couple years ago. Plus, workers already get healthcare, vision, and dental benefits without paying union dues. 

Both sides can challenge whether the vote was conducted fairly. Union organizers may bring up Amazon's anti-union messaging campaign at the warehouse, which even followed workers into the bathroom

Big picture: This isn't about just one Amazon warehouse. After decades of waning union participation, organizers hope this vote sparks "an explosion of union organizing across the country." 

        

REAL ESTATE

Prepare for a Backlog of Housewarming Parties

housing market

Francis Scialabba

Americans have made good on their New Year's resolutions to finally get their own place. A little too good. 

US home prices soared 11.2% annually in January—the biggest annual gain since 2006, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index. Phoenix (+15.8%), Seattle (+14.3%), and San Diego (+14.2%) led the cities surveyed. 

It's not so buyers can make it in time for mulching season

The pandemic and low borrowing costs are still pushing buyers out of urban apartments and into the suburbs. But as the pool of would-be buyers has grown, supply's gotten tighter than a Lower East Side kitchen: In February, available homes fell by nearly a third to just over 1 million. 

Some experts think rising mortgage rates could cool the market. As Treasury yields move higher, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is now at 3.2%, up from historic lows last year. 

Big picture: At some point the market will slow down...but experts aren't sure when. Until that happens, we're quitting the newsletter biz and going to build some houses.  

        

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Now you can enjoy the comfort of a modern sneaker with timeless style and have the perfect excuse to show off your taste in classic TV. 

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GRAB BAG

Key Performance Indicators

Asking google "what song goes bum bum be dum bum bum be dum dum"

Stat: Last year, almost 65% of Google searches ended without a click to another web property, according to a study by SimilarWeb. The numbers provide more ammo to critics of Google's ability to control search results, but it also reflects the rise in mobile browsing, where clicking out is less common.

Quote: "As far as WHO is concerned, all hypotheses remain on the table."

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said an investigation into Covid-19's origins (conducted by the WHO, by the way) did not sufficiently look into the possibility of the virus being leaked by a lab. The US and 13 other countries have also bashed the report, which concluded that bat → another animal → humans was the likeliest cause of the initial outbreak. 

Read: The therapy-app fantasy. (The Cut)

        

EXPLAINER

Reader Q&A: Leverage at First Sight

Leverage cartoon

Only the best animated movie ever, The Emperor's New Groove

Jane from Seattle's Q: I've been hearing the word "leverage" in this story about the hedge fund that blew up. Can you explain what that is? 

The Brew's A: The concept of leverage in finance is similar to the concept of leverage outside of finance. Their origins lie in the lever, a machine that requires you to only apply a little effort to generate a lot of force. Levers in the physical world include scissors, bottle openers, and baseball bats. 

In the financial world, investors use the term "leverage" to refer to debt that's used to fund transactions. The idea is to borrow money to make purchases that, over time, can make you far more money than your initial capital could. In other words, if you want to hit a ball 300 yards, you need a golf club instead of a soup spoon.

But while leverage can increase your reward, it can also increase risk, which is where the story of this hedge fund, Archegos Capital Management, comes in. Archegos used a tool called "swaps" to build large positions in stocks without providing lots of money up-front. Last week, that strategy backfired in spectacular fashion when those stock prices fell, and the banks that lent Archegos the money sold tens of billions worth of shares, deepening the pain. 

For more on this saga, our video guy Dan Toomey put together a hilarious clip explaining what happened. 

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • President Biden will unveil his big infrastructure and manufacturing plan today in Pittsburgh. 
  • NFL owners approved a plan to extend the league's schedule by one game, to 17. 
  • Here's a good overview of office reopenings around the country. 
  • Virgin Galactic's got a cool-looking new spaceship.
  • George RR Martin is helping write a stage adaptation of Game of Thrones. Makes sense, but a Lin-Manuel Miranda version is also hilarious to think about.
  • Chipotle's National Burrito Day promotion lets customers enter for a chance to win a free burrito or up to $25,000 in Bitcoin. 

BREW'S BETS

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Crypto isn't just about coins. The Motley Fool has found a small company with potential to be at the heart of crypto trading—and investors could possibly make money regardless of how the coins are moving. Motley Fool Stock Advisor members can get all the info now.*

Secrets don't make friends: But they do make Frappuccinos. Starbucks's 50th birthday was yesterday, so here are all the secret menu items you can annoy baristas with by ordering. 

Ferocious: Listen to the "sonorous war cry" of a very angry frog here.

Tech Tip...Wednesday? Google Maps's new indoor feature. 

*This is sponsored advertising content

FROM THE CREW

Major Announcement Incoming

On Monday, we said this would be a ginormous week for the Brew. We dropped our new Markets design yesterday, and today…

...we're letting you know that we have a new newsletter: Sunday Edition. 

Well, it's not completely new. If you're signed up for the Brew, you're signed up for Sunday Edition, so you don't need to do anything to get it. Just make it through this week and on Sunday, April 4, it'll pop into your inbox like an old friend.

But Sunday Edition will be different than the Monday–Saturday editions in many (great) ways. Over the next few days, we'll give you a peek behind the curtain into what it's all about, then you can open on Sunday to see the real deal.

Until then? .

GAMES

Popularity Contest

A poll by Vox and Data for Progress examined the popularity of billionaires in the US. We covered up the names of Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, and Elon Musk with black rectangles in the chart below. Can you match the billionaire to their favorability rating?

 

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ANSWER

A = Bill Gates
B = Elon Musk
C = Jeff Bezos
D = Mark Zuckerberg 

              

Written by Alex Hickey, Jamie Wilde, and Neal Freyman

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