| Technical analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD for March 1, 2021 2021-03-01 EUR/USD 
At the end of the previous week, as well as the month, accumulation of bears in the market allowed them to be in control of the situation. At the moment, the pair is testing a relatively strong resistance zone of 1.2064-48 (the daily levels + the weekly Kijun-sen). A breakout and consolidation below it will allow bears to remove the daily golden cross and return in the bearish zone. If so, the price may fall to the support area of 1.1975-52 (the weekly mid-term low + February's low). The key resistance level is still located within 1.2150-70 (the weekly Tenkan-sen + the upper border of the daily Ichimoku cloud + record level). Intermediate resistance is seen at 1.2098 (daily Kijun-sen) and 1.2132 (daily Tenkan-sen). 
On the H1 chart, bears are trying to form a new downward trend and are supported by all the analyzed technical tools. The downward intraday targets are at the Pivot levels of 1.2027 – 1.1984 – 1.1905. Today, the key levels are resistance at 1.2106 (the central Pivot level) and 1.2149 (the weekly long-term trend). GBP/USD 
In the last week of February, the pound broke though the Ichimoku cloud and rebounded. Bears returned to the support zone of 1.3904 – 1.3845-23. A breakout and consolidation below this region will allow them to remove the daily golden cross and gain control of the weekly short-term trend. Bears will further try to reach the level of 1.3642 and the daily Ichimoku cloud. Under the circumstances, the daily levels of 1.3982 – 1.4034 are important. Meanwhile, the key resistance levels for March are seen at 1.4118 (the upper border of the monthly Ichimoku cloud) – 1,4181 (a breakout of the weekly target – 1.4240 (February's extreme high). 
The low time frames indicate a bearish market supported by all the analyzed trading tools. Nevertheless, the pair has entered an upward correction. It is now trying to reach the Pivot level of 1.3944. The next important target for the pair is seen at the support level of the weekly short-term trend - 1.4062. Consolidation above it is likely to create balance between bulls and bears. In case the correction ends and the price leaves the zone, the Pivot levels of 1.3864 – 1.3806 – 1.3726 will become relevant intraday. *** Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the high time frames, as well as classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart are used in the technical analysis of the trading instruments. EUR/USD: US House of Representatives passes Joe Biden's $ 1.9 trillion bailout bill. 2021-03-01 Demand for the dollar continues to pick up as optimistic data for the US economy raises the chance that the Fed will adjust its super-soft monetary policy earlier than expected. At the same time, there are rumors that the new US stimulus will be smaller than what Joe Biden initially proposed.  Last Saturday, the US House of Representatives passed Biden's $ 1.9 trillion bailout bill, which includes additional $ 1,400 payments to Americans, increased unemployment benefits and new funding for COVID-19 vaccination and population testing program. During the assembly, 219 people voted for the bill, while 212 voted against it. This ratio is very different from the earlier votings since the previous bills received stronger bipartisan support. Of course, it was no surprise that all Republicans did not support the program, but two Democrats - Jared Golden and Kurt Schrader - also refused the bill. Nevertheless, the decision will now go to the Senate. However, it will face more serious problems as the Republicans continue to oppose an increase in the minimum wage. This is the reason why Democrats wanted to pass a stimulus plan without a Republican vote. So, on Saturday, President Joe Biden called on lawmakers to swiftly approve the bill. "It's time to act," he said. "We don't have extra time," he added. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also tweeted that the COVID-19 relief program "guarantees assistance to people affected by the pandemic." But as noted above, the stumbling block is that Republicans oppose an increase in the minimum wage, change in tax rates for large companies that pay low wages and change in incentives for smaller companies. They also believe that raising the minimum wage to $ 15 an hour does not meet the requirements for a fast-track process for new stimulus. Therefore, another fierce struggle in the Senate is likely to happen this week. In another note, the $ 600 checks provided in the previous bailout bill made personal income skyrocket this January. The index increased by about 10.0%, which is higher than the expected 9.5%. But people should not be elated by this news because the indicator for February might show a decrease.  Personal spending has also grown rather significantly. This January, it jumped by around 2.4%, after falling by 0.4% a month earlier. Economists had expected the index to rise by 2.5%. Personal savings also increased, growing by approximately 20.5%. This sharp rise will most likely affect inflation, which the Federal Reserve wanted to level 2.0% or higher. In fact, at the latest press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the US central bank will allow inflation to go beyond 2.0% in order to compensate for the past years. "Our policy will remain the same since inflation is still low and the labor market remains far from maximum employment," he said. However, indicators show that some prices are overvalued and does not indicate a stable formation of inflationary pressures.  Nevertheless, consumer sentiment still continued to increase, and in February the index was revised upward to 76.8 points. However, even if the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be retreating, many consumers do not expect a sustained economic growth in the near future. Therefore, the expectations index fell to 70.7 this February, while the current conditions index fell to 86.2 points.  As for business environment, the Chicago Business Barometer indicated that business activity in Chicago is recovering, albeit at a slower pace than the previous month. The index increased by 59.5 points in February, after jumping by 63.8 points last January. But even if growth is slower than the previous month, a value above 50 points indicates an increase in business activity. With regards to the EUR/USD pair, movement remains bearish as sellers continue to work for a drop towards February lows. But if the price returns to the 21st figure and above, the euro will trade in the direction of 1.2140. A number of reports are also scheduled to be released today, and they will probably influence trading volatility and market sentiment. For example, a better-than-expected inflation data from Italy and Germany could lead to a rise in EUR/USD. Then, in the afternoon, representatives from the Federal Reserve System and European Central Bank will speak, but it will most likely provide support to the US dollar. Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD as of March 1, 2021 2021-03-01 In today's article on the pound/dollar pair, we will consider the two largest timeframes to try to determine the further direction of the British pound against the US dollar. Monthly 
As you can see, following the results of February trading, the GBP/USD currency pair strengthened quite well, however, several technical points need to be paid attention to. The growth factor itself speaks in favor of the bulls in the British currency, during which the resistance of sellers at 1.3757 was broken, as well as the black 89 exponential moving average. At the same time, some nuances call into question the further strengthening of the "Briton". These include the closing price of the February trading below the important and quite significant psychological level of 1.4000, as well as a fairly significant upper shadow of the February candle. I would also like to draw your attention to the fact that on the monthly chart, the pound/dollar pair is trading within the Ichimoku indicator cloud, which itself is an area of uncertainty. This month, the upper limit of the cloud is 1.4118. In the event of a close of trading at the beginning of the month above this mark, and therefore an exit up from the cloud, you can count on the subsequent strengthening of the British currency. If the pair ends the trading of the first spring month with a decline and closes them at 89 EMA, the breakdown of this exponent will have to be considered false and prepare for a subsequent decline in the exchange rate. However, as can be seen on this chart, several more strong resistances of sellers, in particular 1.4344 and 1.4375, pass above the February highs of 1.4231. I believe that only the breakdown of the last mark will give the final answer in favor of bullish sentiment and the subsequent growth of GBP/USD. In turn, the bears on the pound need to push through the support at 1.3565 and close trading in March under this level. If this happens, you can prepare for a subsequent bear market for this currency pair and consider selling options, most likely medium-term. Although the market sentiment changes so quickly and often that it is still not worth making decisions about opening medium-term positions. Weekly 
Following the results of the trading of the last five days, a reversal model of the candle analysis "Shooting Star'' appeared on the weekly chart. The chances of working out this model are enhanced by the fact that it appeared at the very end of the upward movement, as well as its extremely long upper shadow. Now the task of the bulls on the pound is extremely difficult. To break this bearish candlestick pattern, it must be absorbed by growth, which implies the closing of trading on March 1-5 above the previous maximum values of 1.4231. I fully assume that in the case of a downward trend scenario, the pair may be supported by the Tenkan red line, which runs at a strong technical level of 1.3840. However, taking into account the last weekly candle, I consider the main scenario for the pound/dollar pair to be downward, and the likely support in the area of 1.3840 should be considered as a corrective rebound and the opportunity to open short positions at more interesting prices. At the moment, sales of GBP/USD should be planned on the pair's attempts to return above the key psychological level of 1.4000. I will try to give smaller timeframes and more accurate trading signals in tomorrow's article on GBP/USD. Technical analysis for GBP/USD pair in March 2021 2021-03-01 Trend analysis In March, the price from the level of 1.3926 (closing of February's monthly candlestick) is expected to rise to the first target of 1.4230 (blue dotted line) – the historical resistance level. After testing this level, the upward trend may resume to the upper target of 1.4374 (red dotted line) – the upper fractal. 
Figure 1 (monthly chart) Indicator analysis: - Indicator analysis - up
- Fibonacci levels - up
- Volumes - up
- Candlestick analysis - down
- Trend analysis - up
- Bollinger lines - up
The price is likely to be in the upward trend based on comprehensive analysis. Based on the candlestick calculation of the monthly chart of EUR/USD, the price will most likely move in the upward trend, both without the first lower shadow (first week of the month – white) and the second upper shadow (last week – white) in the monthly white candlestick. Most likely, the price will rise from the level of 1.3926 (closing of February's monthly candlestick), with the first target set at the historical resistance level of 1.4230 (blue dotted line). After testing it, the upward trend may extend towards the upper target of 1.4374 (red dotted line) – the upper fractal. Alternatively, the price from the level of 1.3926 (closing of February's monthly candlestick) may decline to the first target of 1.3816 (blue dotted line) – a pullback level of 14.6%, from which possible growth can be expected. Trading idea for silver 2021-03-01  Continuing the plan presented last February 26 , the main target is to bring silver to $ 26 and set-off a breakout.  To do this, traders should open short positions at $26.9 - $ 27.2, and then aim for a 61.8% or 50% retracement. Place limit at $ 28, then take profit as soon as the quote breaks through $ 26. Of course, they still need to be careful to avoid losing money. Trading in this financial market is precarious, but profitable if the approach used is correct. The idea above is under Price Action and Stop Hunting methods. Good luck! Gold to trade at $ 1,660 an ounce 2021-03-01 
Gold traded downwards last Friday, mainly due to US bonds reaching a yearly high of 1.6% overnight, which prompted the US dollar to rise sharply in the markets. Peter Hug, director of KITCO, said he was on the lookout for an increase to $ 1,817 this Monday, but the yield on the 10-year US bonds hit 1.20% and then above 1.50%. As a result, investors are beginning to withdraw from stocks and turn to cash, which is bad for gold. "Gold may trade at $ 1,660 an ounce this week," said Bart Melek of TD Securities. "There is a growing concern about the new stimulus, which accelerates inflation and steepens the yield curve," he added. 
Apparently, market players are worried that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates earlier than expected. And if they do, the yield curve will most likely widen further, which is bad for gold. "As long as the curve is steep, gold will fall," Melek said. Stocks fall every time yields rise because investors worry that the Fed is underestimating inflation. "If US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen or Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks up and says they are holding back yields, gold will skyrocket," said Daniel Pavilonis of RJO Futures. "But yields may need to be raised up to 2% before the Fed gives this answer." But based on their recent statements, the Biden administration will continue a soft monetary policy, more stimulus and a strong stock market. "The more the incentives, the more profitability grows. They need to acknowledge the problem and continue to stimulate," Pavilonis said. But in the long term, if this continues, the US will have to face massive disruptions such as the closure of businesses that require low interest rates. "At the end of the day, we need to see gold at the best prices, especially given the all-time high in debt and increased demand for risky assets," Melek said. "As soon as we settle things and it becomes clear that the US economy is not that good, gold will rebound. The market will understand this, and gold will start moving up." Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for March 01, 2021 2021-03-01  Overview : The GBP/USD pair has climbed along a steep, upward-sloping support channel, the pair rose at an even more ambitious incline from the area of 1.3887. The GBP/USD pair is showing signs of frequency at the bottom lip of a key support range between 1.3887 and 1.3900. The pair also stalled around these levels last week and close at 1.3915. The GBP/USD pair is going to continue to rise from the level of 1.3887 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.1422 which represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart, pivot point. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.1422. So, buy above the level of 1.1422 (if the trend hits this price) with the first target at 1.4104 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.4240. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.4240 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3826, a further decline to 1.3750 can occur which would indicate a bearish market. Forecast : - According to the previous events the price is expected to remain between 1.3887 and 1.4240 levels.
- Buy-deals are recommended above 1.3887 with the first target seen at 1.4104. The movement is likely to resume to the point 1.4162 and further to the point 1.4240.
- The descending movement is likely to begin from the level 1.3887 (below this region) with 1.3750 and 1.3703 seen as targets.
EUR/USD: Does the euro take the dollar into circulation? 2021-03-01  The first day of spring did not turn out well for the US dollar: it continued to decline against most global currencies. In this regard, the Euro currency took advantage of the situation by strengthening its positions in the EUR/USD pair. According to experts, one of the reasons for the dollar's decline is the approval of Biden's proposed $ 1.9 trillion stimulus package. The document provides for an increase and extension of the validity of federal allowances for unemployment benefits, direct payments to the population in the amount of $1,400 per person, the provision of $350 billion to local governments, as well as funding for vaccination against COVID-19. The recovery of the US stock market and increased interest in risky currencies also contributed to the fall. It should be noted that the US dollar is fading from investors' sight and is significantly cheaper amid the growth of risk appetites. Thus, experts note a significant decline in demand for the US currency. On March 1, the dollar index shows a downward trend, while the USD is correcting against other currencies. The euro benefited from this weakness, which is gaining impulse. We can assume that the single currency is ready to take the dollar into circulation and significantly surpassed it. However, such conclusions are still early. This morning, the euro rose by 0.2%, that is, to the level of 1.2091 after a record collapse in April 2020. It then later moved to 1.2086, but could not keep the gained positions. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair declined to the 1.2052-1.2053 range, trying to overcome this failure.  Experts recorded an increase in bullish mood for the euro among long-term market players during the previous week. At the same time, hedgers for the EUR/USD pair have been rising their net positions for the euro's growth over the past three weeks. Analysts believe that the continuation of this trend contributes to the rise of the EUR/USD pair. In the event of sales growth, the euro will also receive an additional boost for growth.
Author's today's articles: Zhizhko Nadezhda  Graduated from Irkutsk State University. Having acquainted with Forex market in 2008, followed the courses in the International Academy of Stock Exchange Trading. The agenda was so exiting that she moved to St. Petersburg in order to get professional education. Obtained a diploma of the retraining course on the discipline Exchange market and stock market issues, defended the graduation paper with distinction on the subject "Modern technical indicators as the basis of the trading system". At the moment obtains a master degree in International Banking Institute on specialty Financial markets and investments. Apart from trading is occupied with development of trading systems and formalization of the working strategies using Ichimoku indicator. At the moment is working on the book dedicated to the peculiarities of Ichimoku indicator and its operating methods. Interests: yoga, literature, travelling and photograph. "You can only get smarter by playing a smarter opponent" Basics of Chess play, 1883 "Successful people change by themselves, the others are changed by life" Jim Rohn Pavel Vlasov  No data Ivan Aleksandrov  Ivan Aleksandrov Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Andrey Shevchenko  Andrey Shevchenko Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. l Kolesnikova  text
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