Wednesday, March 3, 2021

Biden’s strategic failure

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POLITICO Nightly logo

By Michael Grunwald

Presented by The American Health Care Association and National Center for Assisted Living (AHCA/NCAL)

With help from Renuka Rayasam

WHEN JEDI WISDOM DOESN'T APPLY — President Joe Biden says he wants bipartisan Covid relief, but his $1.9 trillion bill probably won't get a single Republican vote. Meanwhile, Republicans say they want to block the bill, but they'll probably fail. Really, though, both sides are basically getting what they want.

They're getting caught trying.

In other words, they're making futile but highly visible efforts that they want their respective audiences to notice. Biden hopes middle-of-the-road Americans (as well as independent-minded Democratic senators like the suddenly all-powerful Joe Manchin) will see he's extending his hand to Republicans, even though he knows they'll slap it away. Republicans want their base to see they're fighting, even though they know they lack the votes to win.

Yoda's dictum that there is no try may be true for Jedis, but for presidents and their adversaries, public effort can sometimes send as useful a message as success. Biden doesn't really want to make the huge concessions necessary to have any hope of Republican support, and Republicans don't really want to be held responsible for blocking relief during a pandemic. This way, Biden will get his bill, while getting caught trying to work with Republicans, and Republicans will get to attack the bill as a partisan mess, while getting caught trying to stop it.

President Joe Biden holds a meeting on cancer with Vice President Kamala Harris and other lawmakers in the Oval Office at the White House.

Biden holds a meeting on cancer with Vice President Kamala Harris and other lawmakers in the Oval Office at the White House. | Getty Images

Strategic failure shows up in other aspects of life, too, from the spouse who breaks a dish to avoid getting tasked with future dish-washing to the brushed-back batter who charges the mound at a pace that signals his desire to fight while allowing his teammates to hold him back from any actual fighting. But it's especially common in Washington, where the optics of politics are often considered as important as the substance of policy.

This kind of posturing is not universally practiced. President Donald Trump never believed in performative losing. He promised so much winning his supporters would get tired of winning, then spent four years spinning defeats as victories, including his ultimate defeat to Biden.

Not all Democrats like getting caught trying, either. President Barack Obama's first chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, believed winning begets winning and losing begets losing. He wasn't happy about the political costs of Obama's failed efforts to pass a climate bill and to win bipartisan support for Obamacare.

But Obama saw value in those defeats. The climate debacle made it clear he had no legislative path on the issue, which gave him more credibility to push executive actions. His interminable courtship of Republicans on Obamacare persuaded wavering centrist Democrats who wanted a bipartisan bill that it wasn't a real option.

And both failures sent a message he was determined to get things done — in a bipartisan way if possible, some other way if not. "We were big proponents of getting caught trying," said Jon Favreau, Obama's speechwriter. "The president believed the message could be as important as the wins."

One of the biggest proponents of getting caught trying in the Obama White House was Ronald Klain, who is now (and was then) Biden's chief of staff.

Klain was the key architect of Biden's first big losing fight, his failed effort to make Neera Tanden his budget director. The White House stood by Tanden well after it was clear she was in trouble, then signaled she would get a job elsewhere in the administration, sending a message about loyalty to future nominees.

In the minority, Republicans have also shown a shrewd understanding of the value of winning by losing. House Republicans held a celebration after Obama passed his $800 billion stimulus bill over their unanimous opposition in February 2009. Then-congressman Mike Pence played the caucus a clip from Patton of the general rallying the troops for war against the Nazis.

They were similarly exuberant after the passage of Obamacare, correctly predicting that their partisan defeat would help them win back the House in 2010.

But there are different ways to win, and different ways to get caught trying. The Republicans succeeded in tarnishing the reputation of the Obama stimulus and Obamacare, but Obama succeeded in passing the stimulus and Obamacare. Republicans may now succeed in tarnishing the reputation of Covid relief, but Biden seems to care about passing it far more than he cares about passing it in a bipartisan way or even passing it in a popular way.

When you're out of power, getting caught trying can be a path back to power. But when you're in power, it's not enough to get caught trying to deliver. You actually have to deliver.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news and tips at mgrunwald@politico.com and rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @mikegrunwald and @renurayasam.

A message from The American Health Care Association and National Center for Assisted Living (AHCA/NCAL):

America's long term care providers are fighting to keep residents safe. We must continue to rally around the health care heroes who work tirelessly to protect vulnerable seniors. Together, we can keep long term care staff and residents safe: https://saveourseniors.org

 
First In Nightly

COLD TRUTH OF HOT CITIES — Last summer, just as cases of Covid-19 began to surge in Southern California, so did the heat.

In the East Los Angeles neighborhood of Boyle Heights, that created a dilemma. Boyle Heights is full of old, brick apartment buildings cooled with window units. On hot days before the coronavirus, its predominantly Latino residents would cluster with multiple generations of family members in the one room that had air conditioning, or seek out cool public spaces like shopping malls or movie theaters to escape the heat. But the pandemic closed many of those places. Local governments kept a few public cooling centers open during the near-triple-digit heat wave, but residents were fearful: They had been told for months to stay outside to avoid the spread of the virus, but now they were being told to go inside to avoid becoming ill from the heat.

If you overlaid a map of the country's coronavirus hotspots with its actual hotspots — that is, neighborhoods with the highest levels of extreme heat — the maps would be virtually the same, Victoria Colliver and Nolan McCaskill write. These hotspots, better known as "heat islands," are hotter than other neighborhoods because they often have large expanses of concrete, less greenery, higher density housing, lower average incomes and poorer health status than more affluent neighborhoods. And those same factors have also contributed to skyrocketing Covid-19 caseloads in those neighborhoods.

Researchers and public health officials concerned about the disproportionate death toll the Covid-19 pandemic is having on people and communities of color have noticed the coincidence between Covid and heat. And that makes them concerned about the future, because climate change is expected to exacerbate many of the environmental factors that are disproportionately affecting minority neighborhoods, particularly higher temperatures.

Next week: POLITICO's Recovery Lab is exploring the future of nursing homes. Has the pandemic changed your perception of them? Do you or a loved one have an experience to share? Tell us your story.

 

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Nightly Interview

TEXAS REOPEN WORRIES HOUSTON LEADER — After Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott lifted virus restrictions in the state Tuesday, Biden described the move today as "Neanderthal thinking."

Abbott's order surprised city mayors and county judges, which is a Texas county's highest ranking elected official and not actually a judicial position. After March 10 these local officials will have no power to enforce mask wearing and other measures even as the virus continues to spread at high levels. Instead they have to resort to persuasion to convince residents and businesses to comply with safety measures.

In Harris County, which includes Houston, county leader Lina Hidalgo has set the threat level to 1, or the most severe, asking residents to leave their homes only for essential activities. The positive test ratio is 13.1 percent, and only about 6 percent of Harris County residents have been fully vaccinated. Nightly's Renuka Rayasam spoke with Hidalgo, a Democrat, this morning about her reaction to the governor's announcement. This conversation has been edited.

Did you know that Gov. Abbott was going to lift all Covid restrictions?

We knew that an announcement was gonna come. He kind of teased it, but all of us were taken aback by the extent of it.

We and Harris County have the unfortunate distinction of being the only area recording every major strain of Covid-19. Our positivity rate is still sky high, and it's moving up, not down. Same with our case account. We're finally able to see the light at the end of the tunnel now because of the vaccines, but also because of the sacrifices so many people have made. I'm very concerned that this is opening the door for more death, for more hospitalizations, unnecessarily so.

How do you plan to get county residents and businesses to comply with Covid safety measures without the ability to enforce them?

I'm telling the community that regardless of what the state is saying, we can't take one step back. I'm trying to not mince words, because I don't want more people to die.

We have to continue wearing the masks. We have to continue avoiding gatherings and gatherings of people we don't live with. We have to be real. We have to be realistic as to what we see. This is clearly political timing and it's sort of odd that all of a sudden there's this wholesale proclamation of victory. I hope folks are going to see through that.

Harris County is extremely diverse, has the highest uninsured rate in the country and there are lots of marginalized populations. Is all of that a challenge when it comes to vaccine distribution?

Absolutely. Vaccine hesitancy is a challenge. The blessing and the strength of that diversity is also a challenge when it comes to something like this. But we've worked on a media campaign in multiple languages tailored to the different communities. We have mobile vaccine sites that go into hard-hit communities. We don't have a first-come, first-serve list. It's a randomized system, where you're not just giving an unfair advantage to people who have the internet or the time to sit there all day and click right when the portal opens. It's not easy to correct for the inequities in terms of access to health care and transportation, but we're trying our best to do that.

 

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What'd I Miss?

House scraps work schedule because of security threat: Top House Democrats are abruptly wrapping up all work tonight and sending members home — a day earlier than planned — as congressional leaders grapple with another potential threat to the Capitol, nearly two months after a deadly riot overtook the complex. While the extent of the concerns is not yet clear, U.S. Capitol Police have stepped up the security around the Capitol and related office buildings after both federal authorities and the sergeant-at-arms warned of discussions by "militia violent extremists" to seize control of the complex on or around March 4.

Cuomo says he won't step down: An emotional New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said today that he would not step down in the face of multiple accusations of sexual harassment. "I am not going to resign," Cuomo said in his first public appearance since the accusations surfaced last week. His comments came at the end of a briefing in Albany devoted to an update on Covid-19 across the state.

Nightly video player on Gov. Andrew Cuomo's apology and refusal to resign

— Haaland picks up Susan Collins' support for Interior nom: Rep. Deb Haaland (D-N.M.) won the support of the key Maine Republican senator today, giving her a likely path to winning confirmation as the first Native American Cabinet secretary, despite heavy criticism from other GOP lawmakers.

— Watchdog: Former WH doctor made sexual comments, abused alcohol while on duty: Ronny Jackson, the White House's former top physician who is now a member of Congress, made inappropriate sexual comments, "bullied" subordinates and got drunk on several presidential trips, the Pentagon's inspector general determined in an investigation published today.

— WH won't make quick decision in responding to new rocket attack in Iraq: The Biden administration won't make a "hasty" decision in responding to the latest rocket attack targeting U.S. troops in Iraq, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said today.

From the Health Desk

1-877-JABS-4KIDS — About one-fifth of the U.S. population isn't eligible for any of the three vaccines with emergency use authorization from the FDA — because they're too young.

Shots from Moderna and Johnson & Johnson are approved for adults 18 and older while those 16 and older can take the Pfizer shot. Even though Covid rarely puts children in the hospital, they'll still need to be vaccinated for the U.S. to achieve herd immunity, Buddy Creech, director of the Vanderbilt Vaccine Research Program and professor of pediatric infectious diseases, told Renu.

Pfizer has been testing its vaccine in children between 12 and 15 and said it plans to start enrolling kids from 5 to 11 in trials over the next couple of months. The company said it would start testing kids younger than 5 later this year. Moderna also started trials for kids from 12 to 17 in December and plans to start testing younger ones later this year.

Both companies said they expect results of the teen trials to be available this summer, in time for the start of the next school year. But younger children will probably have to wait until this winter before they're eligible for the vaccine, Creech said. "We really want to make sure we don't treat children as little adults."

Trials in children 12 and older are testing the right dosing and schedule — older kids may, for example, require a smaller dose and a bigger gap between doses for vaccines that require two shots.

But younger kids may require a tweaked formulation because of differences in their immune systems. The difference between the virus response in adults and children suggests that they may need a different vaccine. Plus, they may not have existing exposure to other coronaviruses, or common colds, circulating. Most little kids are already on an existing vaccine schedule, and trials will have to consider where the Covid shot fits in. Also, because kids face fewer risks from Covid, safety standards will be even higher.

Around the Nation

INFRASTRUCTURE WEAK — Obama tried to do it. So did Trump. But neither could make the elusive infrastructure overhaul happen. In the latest POLITICO Dispatch, transportation reporter Tanya Snyder explores whether Biden will be able to pass a massive infrastructure package to rebuild the nation's crumbling roads, bridges and broadband — or if he will suffer the same fate as his predecessors.

Play audio

Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast

The Global Fight

DUTCH COVID TESTING CENTER BOMBED — A coronavirus testing center in the Netherlands today appears to have been targeted with a bomb, Dutch police said.

The blast took place early this morning at a drive-through test facility in Bovenkarspel, north of Amsterdam. The incident broke several windows in the immediate vicinity, according to local media, but no injuries were reported.

Police said in a statement that a "self-manufactured object" caused the explosion. "Because the object exploded right in front of the building, the windows were probably destroyed by the blast wave," they added.

 

FIND OUT THE LATEST WHISPERS FROM THE WEST WING : What's happening inside the West Wing, and what are the real conversations taking place behind-the-scenes in the halls of power? Who really has the ear of the president? What's going to happen across the executive branch next, and why? Transition Playbook chronicles the people, policies and emerging power centers of the Biden administration. Don't miss out. Subscribe today.

 
 
Nightly Number

5

The number of Major League Baseball teams in California. Fans in the state can likely catch MLB games in person when the season begins in April, Gov. Gavin Newsom said today.

Parting Words

HOW TO DEDUCE THE SEUSS ABUSE — Theodor Seuss Geisel, better known by his pen name Dr. Seuss, was so protective of his work that he once vowed that he would never license any of his hundreds of characters or stories to anyone who might, as he said, "round out the edges." This week, the steward of his literary legacy, Dr. Seuss Enterprises, went beyond rounding edges, senior media writer Jack Shafer writes, by withdrawing from the publication six of his lesser-known works: And to Think That I Saw It on Mulberry Street, If I Ran the Zoo, McElligot's Pool, On Beyond Zebra!, Scrambled Eggs Super! and The Cat's Quizzer.

Dr. Seuss Enterprises softballs the reason they're allowing taking the books out of circulation and will not license the characters for movies or products, saying they "portray people in ways that are hurtful and wrong." What they really mean to say is that the books contain racist elements.

Which they definitely do. No defense of presentism, asserting that some of the pages in these books weren't considered racist when first published, that it's only our standards that have changed, can protect these books from criticism. The stories undeniably deploy blatantly racist stereotypes to illustrate Asian people (slanted eyes, wielding chopsticks), African people (monkey-like) and Arab people (man on a camel) in ways that make 2021 readers cringe and should have induced wincing in the decades they were written and first published (1937-1976). One father of my acquaintance, a man with a strong stomach for controversial content, recalls purchasing a used copy of If I Ran the Zoo at a flea market a decade ago and then having to delete select pages to make it suitable for his kids.

Even so, none of the six titles rank among his most popular. Who remembers seeing, let alone reading a copy of McElligot's Pool or The Cat's Quizzer ? Judging from Amazon and Barnes and Noble searches, some if not all of the titles have effectively been out of print for some time, available only at libraries and used book outlets. The Dr. Seuss Enterprises decision also appears to predate the Loudoun County, Va., school system initiative to deemphasize (not ban) his books. It's a little like a prestigious restaurant formally announcing that it's no longer offering an unpopular dish it hasn't cooked in several years.

Mea culpa: Tuesday's edition of Nightly incorrectly identified Sen. Josh Hawley's "Blue Collar Bonus." Hawley used the phrase for a proposed alternative minimum wage hike.

A message from The American Health Care Association and National Center for Assisted Living (AHCA/NCAL):

Heroic long term care staff have worked against all odds to protect America's greatest generation during the pandemic. From working with limited PPE to organizing ways to keep residents cheerful during isolation, long term care staff deserve our support. Learn more: https://saveourseniors.org/

 

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