| | | | | |  | | By Rebecca Rainey | Presented by Walmart | Editor's Note: Weekly Shift is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Employment & Immigration policy newsletter, Morning Shift. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. | | | The House is on track to pass President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package by the end of this week. It'll then head over to the Senate, where the fate of one major provision — language that would raise the federal minimum hourly wage to $15 — will soon be determined. What's the holdup? Democrats are using the budget reconciliation process to muscle the aid package through the Senate with just a simple majority. But budget rules require that any bill passed under the filibuster-proof process must have a significant effect on federal spending or revenues, our Caitlin Emma explains. It's up to the Senate parliamentarian to make the call on whether the $15 wage provision counts, and she may make a decision as soon as this week, according to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). But despite doubts from Biden himself that the $15 wage provision will pass muster, Sanders said over the weekend that he is "confident" lawmakers won't need to remove it, pointing to a recent Congressional Budget Office report that found the minimum wage increase would drive up the deficit by $54 billion over a decade. Democratic leaders and the White House will decide what to do next after the Senate parliamentarian rules on the proposal, Caitlin writes. "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been tight-lipped, even with senior members of her leadership team, about the status of talks on the most contentious issues." WILL THE SENATE SLOW DOWN THE STIMULUS? Democrats' goal of passing the relief package by mid-March will require it to sail through the Senate. But Democrats are already divided, on issues from the $15 minimum wage to whether to send stimulus checks to undocumented immigrants, our budget and economic teams report . And the bill could face further delays, they point out, if the parliamentarian finds that some provisions don't comply with strict reconciliation rules and must be rewritten. But for all that fuss, many Democrats may support the aid package even without the wage hike provision. As our Playbook team reports, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said on CNN Sunday that he will vote for the final Covid relief bill even if it doesn't include some progressive priorities like a $15 minimum wage. But Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), asked the same question, said, "I think it's going to be included, so I don't think we're going to have to make that decision." COMING UP THIS WEEK — WAGES GET SENATE SPOTLIGHT: Sanders' first hearing as budget committee chair this week will focus on, you guessed it, "poverty" wages in the U.S. MORE: "These two charts show how much minimum wage workers have fallen behind," from CNN GOOD MORNING. It's Monday, Feb. 22, and this is Morning Shift, your tipsheet on employment and immigration news. Send tips, exclusives and suggestions to emueller@politico.com and rrainey@politico.com. Follow us on Twitter at @Eleanor_Mueller and @RebeccaARainey. | | | | A message from Walmart: Walmart announced pay increases last week for 425,000 U.S. store associates who work in digital and stocking workgroups. Starting rates for these roles will move to $13-$19 per hour based on the store's location and market. This follows action taken by the retailer last year including special COVID-19 bonuses, increased pay for 165,000 key leadership roles, and a restructured team-based model of working in stores. Learn more about Walmart's investment in associate pay and training. | | | | | | TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE? Even if Congress is able to wrap up the next round of coronavirus aid by its mid-March deadline, "some of the largest pieces of the aid will not hit U.S. households for at least another month — and in some cases longer," our Jennifer Scholtes, Megan Cassella, Caitlin and Aaron Lorenzo report. "While extra unemployment benefits don't lapse until March 14, a gap in payments is already inevitable in much of the country because it takes states time to process the new federal infusion," they write. "Congress needs to act two to three weeks before an unemployment cliff to head off that gap," but "given how long it takes the Labor Department to issue guidance and then for states to verify workers' eligibility, that window of opportunity is expected to close by month's end, long before the stimulus is signed into law." ANOTHER TALL ORDER: The stimulus would require the Small Business Administration to launch a $25 billion restaurant grant program. But that agency "has faced unprecedented demands from Congress during the economic and health crisis," Jennifer, Megan, Caitlin and Aaron report. The agency hasn't even fully implemented relief efforts from December's economic aid package, including a $15 billion grant program for shuttered live venues. ECONOMIC CHECKUP: " On the Post-Pandemic Horizon, Could That Be … a Boom?" from The New York Times | | | | NEW - "THE RECAST" NEWSLETTER: Power dynamics are changing. "Influence" is changing. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that all politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. "The Recast" is our new twice-weekly newsletter that breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics, policy and power in America. And POLITICO is recasting how we report on this crucial intersection, bringing you fresh insights, scoops, dispatches from across the country and new voices that challenge "business as usual." Don't miss out on this important new newsletter, SUBSCRIBE NOW. Thank you to our sponsor, Intel. | | | | | | | | DEMOCRATS TO REINTRODUCE EQUALITY ACT: House Democrats will this week reintroduce a bill that would explicitly prohibit discrimination based on a person's sexual orientation or gender identity in housing, employment, credit, and federally funded programs, among other areas. The House passed the bill, dubbed the Equality Act, in 2019, but it was never taken up in the Senate. The Supreme Court ruled last year that federal anti-discrimination law extends to gay and transgender workers, but the ruling only applies directly to the workplace discrimination protections provided under Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act. There are still no explicit federal legal protections for LGBTQ individuals in major sectors of American life, including health care, financial services and education. The House Rules Committee will meet Tuesday afternoon to set the parameters for floor debate on the bill. | | | |   | | | | | | BIDEN'S HHS NOMINEE UNDER PRESSURE: During his career, California Attorney General Xavier Becerra has fought for more health care for undocumented immigrants to be covered under the Affordable Care Act. And now, if he's confirmed by the Senate as Biden's Health and Human Services secretary, our Maggie Severns writes that "he will have the power to make public benefits for undocumented workers a reality." Becerra could "issue first-of-their-kind waivers" to allow undocumented immigrants, roughly half of whom are currently uninsured, access to state health care exchanges, Maggie explains. "There are some compelling policy reasons to do so — undocumented workers often contribute payroll taxes, and giving them benefits would not only help prevent the spread of infectious disease, but ease free-care burdens on hospitals." And ahead of his confirmation hearing on Tuesday, that very scenario has Republicans lining up against Becerra's nomination. An aide to Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), who has been lobbying colleagues against Becerra's nomination, said, "If he was confirmed, he could weaponize HHS as a mechanism to push for open borders, and legitimize the illegal alien agenda that he's pushing for." There's also the question of whether Democratic moderates, including Biden, would back Becerra's more contentious ideas, Severns writes, "or whether the White House, in an attempt to turn down the temperature, would ask Becerra to proceed cautiously on immigration issues." | | | | JOIN US TUESDAY TO MEET THE FRESHMEN: The freshman class of the 117th Congress took office just three days before an armed mob stormed Capitol Hill and in the middle of a once per century pandemic, making its first month in office just a bit different from any previous class. Join POLITICO for "Red, Fresh and Blue," featuring live interviews with newly elected members of Congress from both sides of the aisle. Huddle newsletter author Olivia Beavers will moderate back-to-back live interviews with Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) and Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.). REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE REALLY OUT OF WORK? Some economists think the official tally of unemployed Americans "is far too low," Heather Long reports for The Washington Post. "The official number of unemployed Americans is 10.1 million," and unemployment is at 6.3 percent, according to the monthly jobs report from the Labor Department. But the weekly jobless claims reports released every Thursday show a much higher number. "The latest data indicates 18.3 million people were receiving weekly unemployment payments through Jan. 30. That figure fluctuates a bit week to week, but it has hovered close to 20 million for the past few months," Long reports. "Both figures have major flaws. … Neither figure is an accurate portrayal of how many Americans have been knocked out of jobs in this deadly pandemic, some economists say." So where is the labor market really at? Here's what economists told the Post: — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell thinks the true unemployment rate was "close to 10 percent in January." — Jason Furman, President Barack Obama's former chief economist, gave an estimate of "probably 8.3 percent — or about 13.3 million unemployed." — Doug Holtz-Eakin, former head of the Congressional Budget Office, said he "is focusing on how many people are employed now versus pre-pandemic" and put the number of unemployed at nearly 10 million. — Heidi Shierholz, former chief economist at the Labor Department, "thinks the best answer to how many people are still affected economically by the pandemic is 25.5 million." | | | | A message from Walmart: Last year, Walmart added skilled trade programs and digital certificates to their education benefit program, Live Better U. Associates can now earn a degree or certificate and a paycheck, without lifelong student debt.
• "The current economic climate has only added urgency to the need for practical training and education opportunities for Americans, especially those who do not fit the historic profile of a fulltime student," said Julie Murphy, Executive Vice President of People at Walmart U.S.
• The U.S. suffers from a skilled trades talent gap accelerated by retirement, turnover, and a shift away from trade education in high school. A Deloitte study found that the skills gap may leave an estimated 2.4 million jobs unfilled by 2028.
• Walmart's Live Better U program now supports free high school completion, college prep, business and supply chain college degrees, discounts on other degree programs, free language learning, and on-demand skills development. | | | | | | VACCINATION DRIVE LEAVES MINORITIES BEHIND: "The race to vaccinate as many people as possible while more contagious coronavirus variants march across America is colliding with lagging efforts to steer shots to people of color and underserved communities bearing the brunt of the pandemic," our Joanne Kenen and Brianna Ehley report. "So far, limited data continues to show that people in hard-hit minority communities are getting vaccinated at a much slower pace than people in wealthier white ones." AFT BACKS REOPENING: American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten said Sunday that U.S. schools need to "get as much in-person [schooling] as possible right now," our Eleanor Mueller reports. "I want to debunk this myth that teacher unions, at least our union, doesn't want to reopen schools," Weingarten said on NBC Sunday. "We knew remote education is not a good substitute." Weingarten, whose union represents 1.7 million educators, added that "not that every teacher has to be vaccinated before reopening schools," a key part of the reopening debate. MORE: "Delaware teachers say vaccines are needed to safely reopen schools, yet some are unsure," from The Delaware News Journal — " More teachers are asked to double up, instructing kids at school and at home simultaneously," from The Washington Post | | | U.K. RULES ON GIG WORKER CLASSIFICATION: "In a blow to the ride-hailing app, the U.K.'s top court unanimously ruled Friday that Uber drivers are workers, upholding previous decisions by lower courts and bringing to a close a years-long legal battle," Leonie Cater reports for POLITICO Europe . "Uber drivers must be classified as workers, not self-employed, and are entitled to rights including a minimum wage, working time protections and holiday pay, the court ruled." SOUND FAMILIAR? A similar fight has been playing out in the U.S., most recently in California, where gig companies including Uber and Lyft funded a ballot initiative last year to carve their drivers out of a new state law that would have classified them as employees. | | | — "Blue-Collar Jobs Boom as Covid-19 Boosts Housing, E-Commerce Demand," from The Wall Street Journal — "A second Google A.I. researcher says the company fired her," from The New York Times — " Stacey Abrams joins push for historic union vote at Amazon's Alabama facility," from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution — "Big Tech Employees Opened Wallets for Biden Campaign," from The Wall Street Journal — " Biden administration tries to transition from campaigning on immigration to managing a dysfunctional immigration system," from The Washington Post — "Is This the End of Tipping?" from The New York Times — " Retail giants like Walmart, Amazon, and Kroger are firing shots over rivals' minimum wages. Here's who actually pays $15 an hour," from Business Insider — "Travel's Covid-19 Blues Are Likely Here to Stay—'People Will Go Out of Business,'" from The Wall Street Journal — " Pakistani woman says Northern Virginia housekeeping job was labor trafficking," from The Washington Post THAT'S ALL FOR MORNING SHIFT! | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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