Summary
The Dow Future is higher 36 points to 31405. The US Dollar Index moved higher by 0.006 points to 90.377. Gold is trending higher 7.280 dollars to 1843.000. Silver has climbed 0.2925 dollars to 27.1200. The Dow Industrials edged higher by 61.97 points, at 31437.80, while the S&P 500 softened 1.35 points, last seen at 3909.88. The Nasdaq Composite retreated 35.17 points to 13972.53. Streaming charts of these markets are available at MarketClub
Key Events for Thursday
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims Jobless Claims (expected 755K; previous 779K) Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -33K) Continuing Claims (previous 4592000) Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -193K) 8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 7520.3K) Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1457.4K) Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 736.7K) 9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2689B) Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -192B) 2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting 4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings 4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures 4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window 10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 80.9; previous 79.2) Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 73.8) Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 87.7)
CURRENCIES:http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies" EURO CURRENCY The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a good week. The shorter- term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 1.2151 and then at 1.2168. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2100 and then at 1.2055. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker on routine profit taking after hitting a 13-month high Wednesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week's high of $58.91 and then at $60.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week's low of $57.00 and then at $56.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March coffee closed sharply lower on Wednesday breaking out to the downside of the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 12.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 11.88. If March renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 13.18 is the next upside target. March cocoa closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the January 4th high crossing at 26.61 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends today's rally, November's high crossing at 28.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.41 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off last-April's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. March cotton posted an inside day with a sharply lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 89.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
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U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading, following solid losses on Wednesday. Profit taking was the feature Wednesday. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, how the markets close out the week on Friday will be critical for near-term price direction. Closing levels Friday that are at or near the weekly lows would be a clue that near-term market tops are in place. Still, overall supply and demand fundamentals are bullish for the grains. The key question for traders is, has all the bullish news been factored into futures prices. Remember that a strong bull market needs to be fed fresh, bullish fundamental news on a regular basis.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading and near the record high scored Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18- day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,928.50 and then at 3,950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week's low of 3,878.20 and then at 3,860.00. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0 March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far below Wednesday's record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short- term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 13,769.25 and then at 13,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,612.50 and then at this week's low of 13,516.75. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18- day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 168 even and then at 168 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 167 even and then at 166 21/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5 March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.02.0 and then at 137.08.0. Shorter- term technical support lies at 136.24.0 and then at 136.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
April hogs closed up $1.45 at $81.83. April hogs gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the June-2017 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $83.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 82.83. Second resistance is the June-2017 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $83.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.53. April cattle closed down $1.13 at $122.70 April cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off October's low, the December-2019 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $127.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $125.68. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at $127.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.24. April Feeder cattle closed up $0.32 at $143.50. April Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off January's low, the August-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $148.40 is the next upside target. If April resumes the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $135.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. Second resistance is the August-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $148.40. First support is February's low crossing at $140.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $135.03.
April gold closed higher for the fourth day in a row on Wednesday as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the January 29th high crossing at $1878.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at $1771.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at $1878.90. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1966.80. First support is November's low crossing at $1771.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1724.50. March silver closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off last-Monday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.740 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 30.350. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.740. Second support is January's low crossing at 24.040. March copper closed higher for the fourth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extended the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 398.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 358.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 379.55. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 398.95. First support is January's low crossing at 349.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 343.90.
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