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The best broker in Asia www.instaforex.com Daily analysts mail subscription EUR/USD analysis for February 11 2021 - Potential completion of the upside corretio and downside continuation towards 1.2000 2021-02-11 Germany's Merkel: Lockdown will not be maintained a day longer than necessary The goal is to lift restrictions only when justified We have achieved goal of reversing virus infection trend We have stopped health system from being overburdened But we have to prepare for new variants to become dominant Only a matter of time before variants/mutations gain upper hand That could destroy all the progress we've made In case you missed it, Germany has announced that they will extend lockdown until 7 March. While that seems to be where they will start easing restrictions, Merkel has been warning about virus variants/mutations so that will be something to take note of in case it becomes more widespread and threaten another potential lockdown in Q2/Q3. Further Development Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR, I found that the buyers got exhausted today and the downside roattion would be probably to correct strong upside movement from recent few days. Watch for selling opportunities with the downside targets at 1,2090 and 1,2025. Stochastic is in overbought zone, which is another sign for the further downside. Key Levels: Resistance: 1,2145 Support levels: 1,2090 and 1,2025. Analysis of Gold for February 11,.2021 - Broken upside chnanel and potential for drop towards $1.785 2021-02-11 ECB's Villeroy: ECB balance sheet greening does not mean more easing Efforts to cut carbon would not apply to sovereign bonds ECB corporate bond buying should use climate criteria Climate is already linked to ECB's price stability mandate ECB should try to adjust value of corporate asset purchases based on climate risk Some thoughts being shared by Villeroy but nothing too impactful. I'm not a big fan of central banksters getting involved with climate change and green policy but it is what it is and expect to hear more of this in the future. Further Development Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that the buyers got exhausted today and the downside roattion would be probably to correct strong upside movement from recent few days. Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside target at $1,785. Key Levels: Resistance: $1,855 Support levels: $1,785 EUR/USD: plan for the US session on February 11 (analysis of morning trades). The euro is pushing in a narrow channel amid a lack of large buyers. The bulls are waiting for a breakout of 1.2139 2021-02-11 To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to: In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.2139 and recommended to act based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. Given the low volatility of the market, the test of the level of 1.2139 did not take place in the first half of the day, so there were no signals to enter the market. The fundamental data on the European economy was ignored by traders, as it was not of particular importance. The guidelines of buyers and sellers remained the same. Attention in the second half of the day will be drawn to the report on the US labor market for the past week. If the indicators are better than economists' forecasts, the pressure on the European currency will increase, and we will see a downward correction. Bad data can lead to a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2139. A test of this area from top to bottom forms an excellent signal to open long positions in the euro with the aim of further growth in the area of the maximum of 1.2175, where I recommend taking the profits. The more distant target of the bulls remains the resistance of 1.2220. If we observe a further decline in the pair during the US session, then buyers will shift their focus to the support of 1.2103. Only the formation of a false breakout there forms a good entry point into long positions with the expectation of continuing the upward trend. In the absence of buyer activity at this level, I recommend postponing long positions until the test of the minimum in the area of 1.2069, from where you can buy the euro immediately on the rebound in the expectation of an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to: I recommend opening short positions today in the second half of the day against the upward trend only if a false breakout is formed in the resistance area of 1.2139, which forms a signal to sell the euro. Strong data indicating the growth of the US labor market may increase the pressure on the pair. This will allow the bears to return EUR/USD to the support area of 1.2103, from the breakdown of which the further direction of the pair will depend. A breakout and a test of this level from the bottom up will form a new entry point for sales, which will push EUR/USD to a minimum in the area of 1.2069, where I recommend taking the profits. A more distant target will be the area of 1.2035. If during the US session we will observe the upward trend of the euro and the bears will not show any activity in the resistance area of 1.2139, then it is best to postpone short positions until the test of a new high of 1.2175, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately to rebound to reduce by 20-25 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.2220. Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for February 2 recorded a sharp increase in short positions and a reduction in long positions, which reflects the downward correction of the pair in late January and early February of this year. Weak fundamental data on the eurozone economy and lower economic estimates given by representatives of the European Central Bank last week limit the upward potential of the euro, as well as the fact that vaccination in the eurozone will take place at a slower pace than expected. All this will lead to a double-dip recession of the European economy in early 2021, but it is unlikely to seriously affect the medium-term prospects for the recovery of the EUR/USD. Therefore, with each significant downward correction of the pair, the demand for the euro will only increase, and the lower the exchange rate, the more attractive it will become for investors. The prospect of lifting the quarantine will keep the market positive in the future. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions declined from 238,099 to 216,887, while short non-profit positions rose from 72,755 to 79,884. Due to the sharp decline in long positions, the total non-profit net position fell to 137,003 from 165,344 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.2067 against 1.2142. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market. Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands The volatility has decreased, which does not give signals for entering the market. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow. Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 11, 2021 2021-02-11 Overview : The EUR/USD pair manages well to pick up extra pace and advance once again to the key 1.2151 (50% of Fibonacci retracement levels, daily pivot point) in the second half of the week. The EUR/USD's pair rebound from 1.1952 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.2151 resistance. Corrective fall from 1.2151 should have completed with three waves down to 1.1952. But the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the bottom level (1.1952) to continue towards the daily pivot point 1.2151. Break of 1.2151 resistance will bring retest of 1.2262 high. The EUR/USD pair long-term bullish breakout points to 1.2349. The EUR/USD pair set above strong support at the level of 1.2104, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected for four times confirming uptrend veracity. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 1.2104 because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend from the area of 1.2104 and 1.2151. The EUR/USD pair is trading in a bullish trend from the last support line of 1.2104 towards the first resistance level at 1.2262 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.2262 and further to the level of 1.2349. The level of 1.2349 will act as second resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 1.2349. On the downside, below 1.2053 minor support will dampen this bullish case, and turn bias to the downside to extend the correction from 1.1952 instead. At the same time, if a breakout happens at the support level of 1.1952, then this scenario may be invalidated. But in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario. Make money Deposit funds Author's today's articles: Petar Jacimovic Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work" Maxim Magdalinin In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Mourad El Keddani Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development). Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch. Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. 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