News : POLITICO California Playbook: RECALL, CALEG and NEWSOM’s agenda — BECERRA’s HHS confirmation hearing date set — CTA hits air as SCHOOLS deal stays elusive

Wednesday, February 17, 2021

POLITICO California Playbook: RECALL, CALEG and NEWSOM’s agenda — BECERRA’s HHS confirmation hearing date set — CTA hits air as SCHOOLS deal stays elusive — HUCKABEE pours it on

Feb 17, 2021

By Jeremy B. White, Carla Marinucci and Graph Massara

THE BUZZ: Whether or not Gov. Gavin Newsom survives a recall attempt, his political agenda could suffer.

The Democratic governor tends to trumpet his grandest ambitions as an affirmation of California's progressive values and its status as a national model. Of course, what might be achievable in deeply Democratic California isn't as viable in more conservative corners of the nation. But with a landslide 2018 win in his pocket and the backing of legislative supermajorities and an overwhelmingly Democratic electorate, Newsom could once afford to reach for loftier goals with relatively less political risk.

That was then. The landscape has shifted. If the recall drive garners enough signatures to trigger an election later this year, that could put Newsom on defense for the rest of the 2021 legislative year. If Newsom prevails, he will have to turn around and defend his seat again in a 2022 reelection campaign. That ups the imperative for the governor to secure the support, or at least the neutrality, of centrist Democrats — and of the deep-pocketed donors who might feel inclined to spend against Newsom if they see him as weakened and overreaching. All of which could constrain his agenda.

Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks at a press conference following the opening of a new COVID-19 vaccination site at Cal State Los Angeles on February 16, 2021 in Los Angeles, California.

Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks at a press conference following the opening of a new COVID-19 vaccination site at Cal State Los Angeles on February 16, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. | Mario Tama/Getty Images

Fracking offers a case study. You may recall Newsom telling the Legislature back in September to send him a bill banning the fossil fuel extraction process, which environmentalists have long sought to curtail. At the time, a recall felt like a conservative pipe dream. But now that it's becoming increasingly likely, Newsom's call to halt fracking could go from a source of progressive plaudits to a liability. A bill is set to drop, launching one of the year's banner legislative battles, and POLITICO's Debra Kahn and Colby Bermel write that it could spell trouble for the governor: "The bill is a political hot potato for Newsom, with the potential to alienate Republicans in the oil-rich Central Valley, labor unions representing oil and gas workers and Newsom's progressive base."

Or take the death penalty. Newsom has long opposed capital punishment, and he drew national headlines when he halted executions early in his tenure. But that's a temporary solution. A permanent prohibition would need to come from voters, who have turned back attempts to end the death penalty in both 2012 and 2016. Newsom asserted last week that he looked forward "to going back to the voters" to "end this practice once and for all in the state." He could throw his weight behind an existing Assembly constitutional amendment to do just that. But that would expend precious political capital when Newsom needs it the most — and he's less likely to try and rally voters behind a contentious ballot item if he's fighting for his own political life.

We'll know by April if a recall is happening. If proponents fall short, that would leave plenty of time for legislating. But if the rest of the legislative year unfolds under the shadow of an oxygen-sucking, agenda-dominating campaign, that would leave less space for tough bills that would force Newsom to wade into legislative fights or to make divisive signing decisions.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Wednesday morning. San Diego Republican Carl DeMaio is deploying his Reform California organization to organize an outdoor pro-Newsom recall rally in San Diego today — and DeMaio isn't reserving his fire for the Democratic governor. He'll also be training it on Republican nemesis and former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who is running for governor.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We've got more than twice the number of electric vehicles. Will Ferrell could have just stayed in California." CalEPA Secretary Jared Blumenfeld on California's green vehicle progress compared to Norway, which was the topic of a viral GM SuperBowl ad.

BONUS QOTD: "Lesson learned. I swung at the windmill, the windmill won." Rep. Eric Swalwell tells the SF Chronicle's Tal Kopan that he's not running for president again.

TWEET OF THE DAY: MSNBC's Chris Hayes @ChrisLHayes on blackout politics: "When California has energy problems, conservatives are like 'LOOK AT THOS IDIOT LIBS! SEE GREEN ENERGY DOESN'T WORK' When Texas (famously home of America's fossil fuel industry) has energy problems conservatives are like, 'LOOK AT THOSE IDIOT LIBS! SEE GREEN ENERGY DOESN'T WORK'"

WHERE'S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

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TOP TALKERS

— "Investigation: Big Newsom Donors — Including Blue Shield — Received No-Bid Contracts During COVID-19 Response," by Capital Public Radio's Scott Rodd: "A CapRadio investigation found an overlap of at least a half-dozen companies that made substantial contributions to Newsom and received no-bid contracts from the state, influential appointments, or other opportunities related to the state's pandemic response."

CONSERVATIVE CLASS — "California Republican takes on 'cancel culture,' proposes new discrimination protections," by the Sac Bee's Kim Bojórquez.

SF SCHOOL SHOWDOWN — "Vote on S.F. schools reopening agreement delayed, angering parents: 'Students are suffering'," by the SF Chrinicle's Jill Tucker.

— "L.A. school board cuts its police force and diverts funds for Black student achievement ," by the LATimes' Melissa Gomez: "In a major overhaul of the Los Angeles School Police Department, the Board of Education on Tuesday approved a plan that cuts a third of its officers, bans the use of pepper spray on students and diverts funds from the department to improve the education of Black students."

GAVINLAND

MAILED-IN RECALL? — Newsom recall would be mail-ballot election under bill sent to governor, by POLITICO's Jeremy B. White: If the 2020 election's sky-high turnout is any indication, mailing every eligible voter a ballot could increase voter participation again. That could redound to Newsom's advantage if he is trying to beat back a recall in an off-election year, when voters may not be as motivated to participate. Still, the state's only gubernatorial recall in 2003 saw higher turnout than in the preceding five gubernatorial general elections.

— " Yes, California Requires Signature Verification For Mail-In Ballots And Newsom Recall Petitions," by PolitiFact's Bill McCarthy and Chris Nichols: "After Republicans seeking to recall California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom said they had reached the number of signatures necessary to trigger a special election, one conservative influencer falsely claimed that the organizers have faced hurdles that voters in November's election did not."

CORONAVIRUS UPDATES

NO DEAL... Newsom: School reopening talks 'stubborn' with 'more work to do', by POLITICO's Jeremy B. White: Newsom conceded Tuesday that he has not yet struck a school reopening deal with legislators and school groups after having said it could arrive last week.

...BUT PLENTY OF PUSHBACK: California teachers union launches ads on school reopening risks, by POLITICO's Mackenzie Mays: "We know what happens when we don't put safety first," the CTA advertisement states while flashing headlines about coronavirus outbreaks in schools in Roseville and San Diego.

— " What teachers, students, parents said about San Francisco Bay Area schools reopening," by SFGATE's Amy Graff: "We received more than 300 messages from teachers, district superintendents, parents, students, grandparents, doctors, college professors and community members. Of those, 251 were in favor of reopening, most written by parents and a handful of teachers and students."

— " UC Berkeley lifts dorm lockdown as coronavirus cases dwindle," by the SF Chronicle's Vanessa Arredondo.

— "Oakland Coliseum is open for mass vaccinations. Here's what you need to know," by the SF Chronicle's Michael Williams and Aidin Vaziri.

THE 46TH

MARK YOUR CALENDAR — Becerra nomination hearing set for next week, by POLITICO's Alice Miranda Ollstein: The Senate HELP Committee announced Tuesday it will hold a Feb. 23 hearing on Xavier Becerra's nomination to run HHS, more than two months after President Joe Biden tapped him for the job. The Finance Committee, which will ultimately vote on whether to send Becerra's nomination to the Senate floor, has yet to announce a hearing date, but is expected to do so later this week.

FULL CIRCLE — "GOP eyes the playbook California used to stymie Trump ," by the LA Times' Evan Halper: "After Democrats succeeded in unraveling much of the Trump agenda through a California-led deluge of lawsuits, they now face a sobering reality: Their courtroom playbook is about to be turned against them."

CAMPAIGN MODE

HUCK BUCKS: Mike Huckabee is becoming a top out-of-state funder of the effort to recall Newsom. The conservative radio host and former Arkansas governor has upped his contribution by another $100,000, a source tells POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt, adding to his initial $25,000 investment. Huckabee spent part of Tuesday amplifying a viral lie about the recall election process.

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

— "Why the massive power outages in Texas are so much worse than California's summer blackouts," by the SF Chronicle's Susie Neilson: "California saw its own blackouts late last summer and into early fall, when massive wildfires and intense heat waves rippled across the state. But the Texas blackouts are far more severe than the ones Californians have dealt with over the years, for several key reasons."

— "Number Of 'Significantly Disengaged' Kids At Sacramento Public Schools Has Skyrocketed During The Pandemic," by Capital Public Radio's Pauline Bartolone: "The school district says 2.25% of approximately 42,000 enrolled students are logging into class, submitting an assignment, or otherwise interacting with the school system just 40% of the time, at the most."

— "Los Angeles D.A. George Gascón Leaves California's Powerful D.A. Association," by the Appeal's Jerry Iannelli: "Gascón … chided the organization for its opposition to reform in an open letter published online."

SILICON VALLEYLAND

— Biden looks past anger at Silicon Valley to get help on vaccines, by POLITICO's Nancy Scola and Mohana Ravindranath: Amazon is pitching its expertise in IT and operations to help in vaccine distribution. Airbnb is suggesting it help create "vaccine depots" using its vast network of real estate across the country. And Google is looking to give free ad space to public health authorities.

— "If Work Is Going Remote, Why Is Big Tech Still Building?" by Wired's Gregory Barber: "A surprising element of the pandemic is the endurance of tech's real estate ambitions. … It comes down, in large part, to simple math: Silicon Valley's giants are growing too fast to loosen their grip on physical space—even if, in some cases, they might want to."

CANNABIS COUNTRY

— "Medical marijuana retail workers move to head of vaccine line, ahead of teachers," by the OC Register's Teri Sforza: "'Medical marijuana is legal in California and a lot of vulnerable people rely on it while undergoing chemo and/or dealing with other medical issues,' said Lisa Pinedo of Santa Ana, a member of the Safe Places OC Facebook group. 'That would put the workers up there with pharmacists.'"

MIXTAPE

— "Captain pleads not guilty to manslaughter in boat fire," by the AP's Stefanie Dazio and Brian Melley.

— " Another child bitten by coyote in Moraga, police say," by the SF Chronicle's Jessica Flores.

— "Garbage truck driver arrested in California Sandalwood fire that killed two people," by NBC's Minyvonne Burke.

— " 'The Black voice of Sacramento': How KDEE brings a new sound to community radio," by the Sac Bee's Marcus D. Smith.

— "UCLA student from Costa Mesa arrested, suspected of role in Capitol riot," by the OC Register's Eric Licas and Jonah Valdez.

TRANSITIONS

— Sam Mahood is leaving the Secretary of State's office and following his former boss, Sen. Alex Padilla, to D.C., where Mahood will be a special projects and communications adviser.

BIRTHDAYS

Yitzi Weiner … Ashley Berrang … Frederick Hill of FTI Consulting … Google's Will Hayworth

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