Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Axios Generate: The grid's new climate — India's coal future — Europe's electric trucks

1 big thing: The changing climate for U.S. power | Wednesday, February 17, 2021
 
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By Ben Geman ·Feb 17, 2021

Good morning. Today's Smart Brevity count is 1,082 words, 4 minutes.

🛢️ "Total U.S. oil production has plunged by one-third — the most ever — as an unprecedented cold blast freezes well operations across the central U.S." (Bloomberg)

🎧 I joined the "Axios Today" podcast to discuss the Texas electricity crisis. Listen here.

🎶 And at this moment in 1984, Culture Club was #1 on the Billboard singles charts with today's intro tune...

 
 
1 big thing: The changing climate for U.S. power
Illustration of a glass lightning bolt with cracks in it.

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

 

The crisis gripping Texas' power grid is very different from California's fiery emergencies in recent years, but there's connective tissue there: Electricity grids and infrastructure need to be better equipped for a changing climate or they can have deadly consequences.

Driving the news: Texas is reeling after a bitter blast of Arctic air and a related demand surge led to widespread outages, causing millions of customers to lose power that as of this morning is only partially restored.

What they're saying: "This crisis is illustrating the need for our energy systems to be more resilient to extreme weather," Rice University energy expert Daniel Cohan tells Axios.

The big picture: Climate change is creating new challenges in the form of both extreme heat and polar vortex events that push Arctic air southward. Severe weather puts new strains on infrastructure while increasing demand for heating and cooling — making grid planning and resource allocation harder.

  • In California, hotter temperatures push up consumption and are a threat multiplier for wildfires.
  • Extreme heat and stronger storms are a big problem in Texas, even though the current woes occurring during the cold snap are front and center.

But, but, but: This excellent New York Times piece on the climate-grid nexus — and the planning problems it poses — captures why some nuance is needed on what's happening in Texas.

  • It notes that cold extremes in Texas are becoming less common.
  • "But some climate scientists have also suggested that global warming could, paradoxically, bring more unusually fierce winter storms," they report.
  • However, the piece also notes that some experts aren't certain that polar vortex disruptions are happening more, "making it even trickier for electricity planners to anticipate the dangers ahead."

What we're watching: One question going forward is whether this disaster will lead to major changes in the way the Texas power grid is regulated or operated — and how the crisis is spilling into national energy debates.

  • Texas Gov. Greg Abbott yesterday called for an investigation into the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state's grid operator.
  • Meanwhile, Politico explores the political dimensions of the crisis and also asks whether it "could be a boon to Biden's proposal to spend huge sums of money to harden the nation's electric grid as it connects giant wind and solar power plants to cities and states thousands of miles away."

The intrigue: The state, unlike large swaths of the country, does not have a "capacity market" that compensates power generators for commitments of future supplies — even if it remains idle.

  • Texas has an "energy-only" market that aims to have reserve capacity but relies heavily on market forces, which let prices soar during high demand periods.

Go deeper: This Twitter thread has plenty of expert voices discussing the topic.

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2. Where it stands: The Texas power crisis
Photo of truck with lights on driving through a neighborhood without power

Power outage in McKinney, Texas, on Feb. 16. Photo: Cooper Neill/Bloomberg via Getty Images

 

Ok let's turn to why the situation is so bad in Texas, and the reason is ... there are many reasons.

  • The Wall Street Journal notes that the extreme cold affected "nearly every major category of electricity producer, from wind to natural gas to even nuclear power," and coal too.
  • "But a shortage of natural gas also appears to have played a role. Texas gas wells froze up, limiting supply of the fuel and driving market prices sky-high."
  • Bloomberg reports that regulators have let Texas power plant operators "leave their pipes, valves and pressure gauges exposed," which is a big problem in extreme cold.
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3. India's coal demand may have peaked
Reproduced from Ember; Chart: Axios Visuals

Wait, what? Did coal demand for power in India, where energy demand is surging, already stop growing forever? A new report says it's possible.

Driving the news: The clean energy think tank Ember finds India's coal demand may have peaked in 2018 and might never fully return from further declines during the pandemic.

  • That would be a break with projections that India's coal thirst will keep rising for a long time as the growing nation's overall energy demand surges.
  • For instance, the International Energy Agency's "stated policies" scenario — which models current and announced policies — sees coal generation rising over this decade.

But, but, but: A lot more renewables are needed to keep coal-fired power from rising. "Peaking of coal-fired generation is contingent on India meeting its wind and solar generation targets," Ember's report states, adding India's not on pace.

Why it matters: India is the world's 3rd-largest carbon emitter. IEA projects that it will see the biggest increase in energy demand of any country over the next 20 years.

  • Fuels used to meet that demand will influence the world's success — or failure — at stemming emissions.

The bottom line: "As India recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic shock, the choices it makes for its power sector can make or break its coal-to-clean electricity transition in the next decade," the report concludes.

Go deeper: India's energy surge makes it pivotal for the climate

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A message from ExxonMobil

ExxonMobil sets emission reduction plans for 2025
 
 

As part of our ongoing commitment to help mitigate the risks of climate change, we have plans that are expected to reduce our absolute upstream greenhouse gas emissions by an estimated 30%. It's something we're working on every day. Learn more about the details of our plan to reduce our emissions.

 
 
4. Breaking: Pipeline and carbon deals

Hydrocarbons: "Energy Transfer LP announced Wednesday an agreement to buy Enable Midstream Partners LP in a stock deal valued at $7.2 billion." (MarketWatch)

SPACs: "Carbon-negative products maker Origin Materials said on Wednesday it has agreed to go public through a merger with blank-check firm Artius Acquisition Inc, in a deal that values the equity of the combined entity at $1.8 billion." (Reuters)

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5. Proterra enters European truck markets
Photo of the Volta Zero urban freight vehicle.

Photo of the Volta Zero urban freight vehicle. Courtesy of Proterra

 

These are busy days for the California-based electric vehicle tech company Proterra, which is soon to go public as part of the SPAC-wave sweeping the sector.

Driving the news: This morning the European company Volta Trucks announced that Proterra will supply batteries for its "Volta Zero" urban freight delivery vehicle.

Why it matters: European carbon rules are making the continent an attractive market for electrified transport of various stripes.

  • The announcement also marks Proterra's entry into European truck markets, the companies said.

How it works: The Volta Zero, the companies said, is "purpose-built, full-electric 16-tonne commercial vehicle designed specifically for inner city freight distribution."

  • Proterra's battery system will give it roughly 125 miles of range per charge, the announcement states.

What's next: Volta claims it's capable of a pretty quick production ramp up.

  • They said the vehicle will begin customer testing late this year, with "tens of thousands of trucks expected on the roads soon after series production starts around 12 months later."

Catch up fast: Proterra, founded in the mid-2000s, made its name as an electric bus maker but has moved into battery systems, charging infrastructure and more — even working in the heavy construction equipment space.

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6. Catch up fast: Ford, WTO, BlackRock

Electric vehicles: "In plans announced Wednesday morning, Ford said its entire passenger vehicle range in Europe would be 'zero-emissions capable, all-electric or plug-in hybrid' by the middle of 2026, with a 'completely all-electric' offering by 2030." (CNBC)

Trade: "Climate leaders are celebrating the election of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as director-general of the World Trade Organization on a platform of reform, while experts caution her influence will be limited in the member-led forum." (Climate Home News)

Finance: "BlackRock Inc. gave company directors more specifics on what it's looking for in their plans to slow global warming, warning that it could vote against those who don't meet its standards." (Bloomberg)

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A message from ExxonMobil

ExxonMobil sets emission reduction plans for 2025
 
 

As part of our ongoing commitment to help mitigate the risks of climate change, we have plans that are expected to reduce our absolute upstream greenhouse gas emissions by an estimated 30%. It's something we're working on every day. Learn more about the details of our plan to reduce our emissions.

 
 

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