| EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 23. COT reports. Bulls seized the moment, euro continues to rise. Aim for 1.2181 2021-02-23 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: The bulls coped with their task in continuing the upward trend despite the fact that they also failed to enter the market in the afternoon, not allowing the bears to create a downward correction pair earlier this week. The only signal that formed during the US session was a sell from the 1.2167 level. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart. It shows how after updating resistance at 1.2167, a rollback by 15 points to the downside had occurred. In my afternoon forecast, I advised you to open short positions in that level. The chart also shows that after surpassing resistance at 1.2143, it was not possible to wait for this level to be tested from top to bottom, and therefore I was forced to miss the signal. Before talking about the prospects for the EUR/USD movement, let's see what happened in the futures market and how the Commitment of Traders (COT) positions changed. The COT report for February 16 revealed that there were no significant changes in the positions of large players, which once again indicates the temporary equilibrium of the pair before a new wave of growth this spring. The major decline from the previous week was won back, and this confirms the theory that the demand for the US dollar continues to decrease among investors. Therefore, a more correct approach to the market is to buy the euro for the medium term. A good factor for the euro would be the moment when European countries begin to actively roll back quarantine and isolation measures, and the services sector will start working in full force again, which will lead to an improved economic outlook and also strengthen the EUR/USD pair. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose from 220,943 to 222,895, while short non-commercial positions rose from 80,721 to 82,899. As a result, the total non-commercial net position slightly narrowed after rising to 140,006 from 140,222. The weekly closing price was 1.2132 against 1.2052 a week earlier, which indicates the presence of buyers in the market. 
It is necessary to pay attention to today's reports on eurozone inflation, where a growth in this indicator will result in strengthening the euro. However, this will happen provided that the consumer price index turns out to be much higher than economists' forecast. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak in the afternoon and report on the US consumer confidence indicator, but more on that later. In case EUR/USD grows further in the first half of the day, buyers will focus on surpassing and being able to settle above resistance at 1.2181. Testing this area from top to bottom creates an excellent signal to open long positions in euros in hopes to rise towards the high of 1.2220, where I recommend taking profits. Bulls will further aim for resistance at 1.2260. The euro might be under pressure if buyers are not active during the European session. In this case, the bulls will need to focus on protecting support at 1.2136, slightly above which are the moving averages playing on the side of the euro buyers. Forming a false breakout in that area creates a good entry point into long positions in hopes to continue the upward trend. If bulls are not active at this level, then I recommend holding back from long positions until the test of the low of 1.2093, from where you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction by 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: I recommend opening short positions against the upward trend in the morning only in case of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2181, which will generate a signal to sell the euro. Returning to the area under the 1.2136 level and testing it from the bottom up creates a convenient point for entering the market. A disappointing inflation report could increase the pressure on the euro. Its divergence from forecasts will significantly affect the market and will result in bringing back large sellers to the market. Testing the 1.2136 level from the bottom up creates an excellent entry point to sell, and in this scenario, the next important task is to return EUR/USD to the support area of 1.2093, as the pair's succeeding direction depends on whether the pair manages to go beyond it. Surpassing this level will lead to a reversal of the upward trend. If we continue to observe an upward trend in the first half of the day, and the bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.2181, then it is best to hold back from opening short positions until the test of a new high at 1.2220, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound while aiming to pull it down by 20-25 points within a day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.2260. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bulls' attempt to continue the pair's upward correction. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.2190 area will lead to a new wave of growth of the euro. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2115 area. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD. February 23. COT report. Boris Johnson: The UK will completely come out of quarantine on June 21. 2021-02-23 GBP/USD – 1H. 
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes continue the growth process and closed yesterday above the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.4063). Thus, the growth process can now be continued in the direction of the level of 1.4190. The upward trend corridor continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bullish". Closing the pair's rate under this corridor will work in favor of the US dollar and start falling towards the levels of 1.3895 and 1.3820. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has unveiled a plan to get the country out of quarantine. According to this plan, by June 21, all restrictions on social contacts will be lifted, and the country will slowly return to its usual life. Boris Johnson said that the plan consists of four stages of lifting the existing restrictions. From March 8, all schools in England will be open and walking in public places will be allowed. From March 29, small companies will be allowed to gather in the open air. From April 12, all shops, hairdressers, gyms, and fitness clubs will open. From May 17, large companies will be allowed to gather in the open air, and in bars and restaurants – companies of up to 6 people. Cinemas, hotels, museums, and stadiums with restrictions on the number of spectators will resume their work. From June 21, it is planned to lift all bans and restrictions. Johnson clarified that at each stage, decisions will be made based on data on the number of cases, and not just based on dates. Traders are also interested in information about whether the UK government will support businesses and households after the previous support program expires in March. If not, the country is predicted to experience severe unemployment. Just this morning, the unemployment report for December will be released, which is expected to increase to 5.1%. GBP/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair closed above the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3979), which increases the probability of further growth towards the next level of 1.4126. The upward trend line still keeps traders' mood bullish. However, now no one has any doubts that the trend is bullish. The consolidation of the exchange rate above the level of 1.4126 will allow us to expect continued growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 200.0% (1.4287). GBP/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed an increase to the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). A rebound from this level will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of 1.3513. Closing the pair above 127.2% will increase the chances of continuing growth in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812). GBP/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: On Monday, the US and UK calendars did not contain any interesting entries. Thus, there was no information background, however, the Briton continued to grow steadily. News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom: UK - change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits (07:00 GMT). UK - unemployment rate (07:00 GMT). UK - change in the level of average earnings (07:00 GMT). US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (15:00 GMT). On February 23, the calendars of economic events in the United Kingdom and the United States contain a sufficient amount of important information. Special attention should be paid to the unemployment report and Jerome Powell's speech. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
The latest COT report from February 16 on the British pound was extremely boring, as was the report on the euro. During the reporting week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 369 long contracts and closed 3,308 short contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators has become more "bullish", which further increases the chances of the British dollar continuing to grow. In general, during the reporting week, almost an equal number of long and short contracts were opened by all players. Nevertheless, despite the small changes, the pound continues a strong and long process of growth. Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to buy the British dollar in case of closing above the level of 1.3979 on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.4126. I recommend keeping these deals open for now. I recommend selling the pound sterling when the quotes are fixed under the uptrend corridor on the hourly chart with the targets of 1.3895 and 1.3820. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD. February 23. COT report. The IMF considers last year the worst in peacetime. 2021-02-23 EUR/USD – 1H. 
On February 22, the EUR/USD pair continued the growth process and completed a close above the downward trend line. Thus, the mood of traders is now characterized as "bullish", and the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 61.8% (1.2197). The information background on Monday was quite weak. No economic reports were released, however, there was a speech by Christine Lagarde in the European Parliament. The ECB chairwoman said that the PEPP emergency program continues to support all sectors of the economy, maintaining a good level of funding in times of a pandemic. But the IMF and its head Kristalina Georgieva just noted in an interview the actions of the European Central Bank and its head Christine Lagarde. Georgieva noted that the IMF provided more than $ 105 billion in funding to 85 countries during the pandemic. Georgieva said that 2020 was the worst year in peacetime, however, "it could have been much worse". She noted that the timely response to the pandemic and the crisis on the part of Christine Lagarde allowed us to avoid a much more negative scenario. She pointed to the ECB's three trillion euro program to save jobs and help households. The IMF also forecasts global economic growth of 5.5 % in 2021, and the growth of the European Union - by 4.2%. The European currency, meanwhile, is again in demand among traders. The pound is also growing. Thus, it is better to say that the US currency has again come under pressure from traders. Thus, the long-term upward trends that are visible on the older charts are preserved. EUR/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes, after rebounding from the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027) and the formation of a bullish divergence at the CCI indicator, continue the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.2204. The rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and some fall in the direction of 1.2027. Closing the pair's rate above the level of 1.2204 will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.2353). EUR/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed the second breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor and also false. Therefore, at the moment, the pair still retains the chances of continuing the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496). Closing under the corridor will allow you to count on a long drop in quotes. EUR/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On February 22, Christine Lagarde gave a speech in the European Union, however, there were no interesting economic events in America. In general, the information background was very weak yesterday. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: EU - index of consumer prices (10:00 GMT). US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (15:00 GMT). On February 23, an important inflation report will be released in the European Union, and Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech in the United States. Thus, today the information background promises to be much stronger than yesterday. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
Last Friday, the next COT report was released and for the second week in a row, it turns out to be very calm. If a week earlier the "Non-commercial" category of traders increased long contracts and got rid of short contracts, but in small quantities, then in the last week they increased both long and short contracts, but in even smaller quantities. A total of 2,537 long contracts and 1,284 short contracts were opened. Thus, the mood of the major players became only slightly more "bullish". On the other hand, it has not become more "bearish", which means that the prospects for the European currency remain wonderful. In general, during the last reporting week, more short contracts were opened, but we are more interested in the data on the group of speculators. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders: Sales of the pair are recommended when closing quotes under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2046. It was recommended to buy the pair in the case of closing quotes above the trend line on the hourly chart with targets of 1.2151 and 1.2197. The first of them has already been achieved. Now we are waiting for the second one. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for February 23, 2021 2021-02-23 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has hit the level of 1.4085 which is the current swing high and the upper channel boundary level. Some kind of correction or pull-back is being expected due to the extremely overbought market conditions, so please keep an eye on the intraday technical support seen at 1.4034 and the local technical support located at the level of 1.3982 - 1.3965. Any violation of this level will open the road towards the next technical support seen at the level of 1.3889. The higher time frame trend is still up and the current correction is only an internal corrective cycle inside of the up trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4313 WR2 - 1.4176 WR1 - 1.4112 Weekly Pivot - 1.3970 WS1 - 1.3906 WS2 - 1.3764 WS3 - 1.3698 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4050 and this was the higher close in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 23. COT reports. Pound breaks through new highs amid easing UK quarantine restrictions 2021-02-23 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Several excellent signals to enter the market were formed yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break them down. I drew attention to the 1.3983 level in my morning forecast and advised you to open long positions from it, subject to forming a false breakout, which happened. You can clearly see how the bears are trying to move below 1.3983, but nothing happened. Then, on the next attempt, sellers could not even reach the 1.3983 level, which creates an excellent entry point for those who decided to wait and did not have time to enter on the first signal. As a result: the movement was around 50 points. We fell short of reaching the 1.4047 target level by literally 5 points. Buyers managed to surpass and settle above 1.4047 during the US session, afterwards this level was tested from top to bottom, which created an excellent entry point for continuing the bullish trend. And although we did not reach the target level, the upward movement was more than 35 points, where it was also possible to make good money. Before examining the technical picture of the pound, let's take a look at what happened in the futures market. The pound remained in demand even despite a slight reduction in long positions. The positive detail increased on the larger reduction in short positions. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 16 revealed a reduction in both long and short commercial positions. Despite this, the bulls break through to new highs each time, taking advantage of the good news on vaccinations in the UK and good fundamentals, indicating economic growth even during the lockdown. The news that the UK will resort to easing quarantine measures in March will further fuel investors' interest in the pound. Long non-commercial positions fell from 60,513 to 60,269. At the same time, short non-commercial positions fell from 39,395 to 38,102, which kept the market bullish. As a result, the non-commercial net position rose to 22,167 from 21,118 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3914 against 1.3745. Any downward corrections with an immediate buy-back of the pound once again proves the presence of large players in the market. Constant updating of local highs and consolidation on them will further contribute to the bullish trend that we have been observing since the beginning of February this year. 
As for the technical forecast, the initial task is to break through and settle above the resistance level of 1.4117, to which pound buyers should get close to in the morning. Testing this level from top to bottom creates an additional signal to open long positions in continuing the upward trend, which will open a direct road to the area of the new annual high of 1.4186, where I recommend taking profits. The 1.4241 level will be a distant target, however, we can't reach it without good fundamental reports. In the event of a downward correction in GBP/USD this morning, then it is best not to rush into long positions, but to wait for a false breakout in the support area of 1.4047, where the moving averages pass, playing on the side of the bulls. If buyers are not active, then I recommend waiting for the 1.3983 low to be tested and buy the pound from there on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 20-30 points within the day. The lower border of the current upward trend is also located there. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The UK will release a report on the unemployment rate, which is unlikely to significantly affect the pair, since we will not know the real figures until the government programs to support the economy and the labor market are curtailed. Therefore, you need to be very careful when trading against a bullish trend. Forming a false breakout in the 1.4117 area will return the pressure to the pair and result in forming a small downward correction in the first half of the day. An equally important task for the bears is to regain control over support at 1.4047. However, this will happen only with a significant deterioration in the UK labor market. Therefore, a breakout and being able to test this level from the bottom up creates an entry point into short positions in hopes to pull down GBP/USD to the area of a low of 1.3983, where I recommend taking profits. The 1.3927 level will be a distant target. In case the pair grows during the European session and bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.4117, I recommend not to rush to sell, but to wait for an update of the 1.4186 high. You can open short positions from there immediately on a rebound, counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day. The next big resistance is seen at 1.4241. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the pound's succeeding growth in the short term. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.4105 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the average border of the indicator in the 1.4010 area. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for February 23, 2021 2021-02-23 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of 1.2177 and it tries to break through the supply zone. The last attempt to break through this zone was a failure, so bulls need to break through if they want to continue the up trend towards 1.2284, which is the next target for them. The intraday support is seen at the level of 1.2163, 1.2154 and 1.2144 and the next technical support is seen at 1.2088. Any violation of the old 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2035 will invalidate the bullish scenario. The weekly time frame trend is still up and intact. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2336 WR2 - 1.2251 WR1 - 1.2185 Weekly Pivot - 1.2101 WS1 - 1.2042 WS2 - 1.1960 WS3 - 1.1894 Trading Recommendations: Any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken, because since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. Any violation of the level of 1.2175 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. 
Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 23. COVID-19, vaccination and Powell's speech in Congress. 2021-02-23 
Global incidence has stabilized below 300,000, which is significantly lower than the 800,000 recorded from December to January. The largest progress is in the United States, having listed around 60,000 new cases, from 300,000 before. Britain also saw a huge decrease in incidents, from 50,000 to 10,000. Did the widespread vaccination cause this? Unfortunately, no. Only US and UK have made good progress in vaccination, being able to vaccinate 15-20% of the population. In the rest of the world, no more than 3% of the population has been vaccinated. Therefore, it is possible that the decline we are seeing right now is only seasonal, and a new wave of incidents will arise again in spring. 
EUR/USD: Euro gave a signal for growth yesterday, but stopped. It seems that the market is waiting for the Fed's statements in the Congress later. In fact, even if the pound has skyrocketed already, the euro remains trading in a range. Open long positions from 1.2145 to 1.2089. Indicator analysis. Daily review of the EUR/USD currency pair for February 23, 2021 2021-02-23 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market from the level of 1.2156 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to continue moving upwards with the target of 1.2234 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). After testing this level, the price can continue to work upward with the target of 1.2274 - the 85.4% retracement level (yellow dashed line). 
Figure: 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- Volumes - up;
- Candlestick analysis - down;
- Trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - up;
- Weekly chart - up.
General conclusion: Today, the price from the level of 1.2156 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to move upwards with the target of 1.2234 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). After testing this level, the price can continue to work upward with the target of 1.2274 - the 85.4% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Unlikely scenario: the price from the level of 1.2156 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to move upwards with the target of 1.2172 - the resistance level (blue bold line). After testing this level, the price can continue to work downward with the target of 1.2063 - the 38.2% retracement level (red dotted line). Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 2/23/21 2021-02-23 Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.4060 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.4201 at the upper limit of the Bollinger Line indicator (the black dotted line). When testing this level, it is possible to continue going up with the target of 1.4285 at the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis – up - Fibonacci Levels – up - Volumes – up - Candle Analysis – down - Trend Analysis - up - Bollinger Bands – up - Weekly Schedule - up General Conclusion: Today, the price will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.4060 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.4201 at the upper limit of the Bollinger Line indicator (the black dotted line). When testing this level, it is possible to continue going up with the target of 1.4285 at the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.4060 (the close of yesterday's daily candle), the average EMA (blue thin line) will try to start moving down with the target of 1.3962-8. When testing this level, it is possible to go down with the target of 1.3841-21 average EMA (black thin line). EUR/USD. Powell's speech in Congress, euro's strength, and general risk appetite 2021-02-23 During the Asian session, the US dollar index passed a significant psychologically level of 90.00, after staying in the 89th mark for the first time in seven weeks. The index continuously shows a strong downward trend since February 17, when the indicator reached its local high at around 90.94. Ever since, the US dollar has been an outsider in the currency market, while risky and commodity assets are in high demand. It also includes the Euro currency which has its own reasons to strengthen. This fundamental background allows EUR/USD buyers to sharply move towards the level of 1.22, although in a gradual pace. Technically speaking, any hindrances to reach this target are not visible. Here, the nearest resistance is set at 1.2205, from which the upper border of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart coincides with the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The fundamental factors also favor the further growth of the price, but with one condition: The Fed should help the weakening USD. 
Today, Jerome Powell will start his two-day speech in the US Congress. He will first submit a semi-annual report on monetary policy to the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, and to the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee the next day. His speech will begin at approximately 15:00 (Universal time), although the main theme of his report will likely be released ahead of time. Considering the importance of today's event, it is quite risky to open any orders for the EUR/USD pair (both for sell/buy). This is because Jerome Powell can affect the fundamental outlook, allowing the US dollar to correct after a multi-day decline. At the same time, the Fed Chairman is not expected to deliver "hawkish" rhetoric, providing support to the national currency. However, there is a risk that the market will interpret Powell's rhetoric in its own way, making individual conclusions. For example, if the Fed's tone of speech will be quite optimistic, primarily regarding the US economic recovery pace in the second half of the year, then the market will come back talking about the fact that the Fed curtail QE earlier than expected. But, we don't know yet if Powell will mention it in his speech. Theoretically, his speech is expected to be not surprising, which is in line with his previous speeches. He recently stated that January's real unemployment rate was near to 10%, against the reported 6.3%, while the weak dynamics of growth in the number of employed remains disappointing. According to him, labor market could take years to recover, but the Fed is determined to reach its employment target. Powell did not specify what the regulator's "determination" would be, but it is clear that all such steps will be associated with further easing of monetary policy parameters. It is possible that he will specify his intentions during his speech to Congress today. But another option is more likely – the head of the US regulator will limit himself again to patiently stimulating the monetary policy, which is primarily important for the recovery process. In this case, the market reaction may be restrained: the US dollar will continue to decline, and the EUR/USD pair will approach the level of 1.22. On another note, the US consumer confidence indicator will also be published today. Last month, it showed an increase after declining for three consecutive months. Experts believe that it will continue its upward trend this month, rising to the level of 90.2 points. However, if it moves in the "red" area again, then the US dollar may come under additional pressure. As for Europe, the macroeconomic reports still favors the Euro currency. In particular, the German IFO business environment indicator published yesterday repeated the upward trajectory of the previously published reports from ZEW and PMI. There is clearly a general sense of optimism in the market, which is primarily associated with the growing process of vaccination against COVID-19. Also recently, the media began to talk about the effectiveness of vaccines. Israel is considered in this context, where 4 million of the 9 have already received the first dose of the drug, and almost 3 million have received both doses. According to the latest data from the Israeli Ministry of Health, vaccination prevents death from COVID-19 by 98.9%, and also prevents hospitalization by 95%. 
Therefore, the general risk appetite is pushing the EUR/USD pair, while positive macroeconomic reports (IFO, ZEW, PMI) provide additional support to the euro amid a weakening USD. If Powell's speech does not inspire the dollar bulls today, the pair will test the limits of the 1.22 level this week. In this case, it is recommended to open long positions based on the results of Fed's speech, especially on the downward recessions of EUR/USD pair, with the first target set at 1.2200. The breakdown of this target will open the way to the next resistance level 1.2290 (upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the monthly chart). Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for February 23, 2021 2021-02-23  Overview : The GBP/USD pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 1.3886 yesterday. The level of 1.3886 coincides with 61.8% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as major support today. Since the trend is above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. From this point, the GBP/USD pair is continuing in a bullish trend from the new support of 61.8% Fibonacci - 1.3886. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to move between 1.3886 and 1.4257. On the H1 chart, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.4183 and 1.4257. Also, it should be noticed that, the level of 1.3886 represents the daily pivot point. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 1.3886 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 1.4100. If the trend breaks the support at 1.4100 (first resistance) the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.4183 in order to test the daily resistance 2. Also, it should be noticed that the double top is set at 1.4085. Additionally, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. This would suggest a bearish market because the moving average (100) is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs at the moment. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.4183, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 1.4257. However, stop loss is to be placed below the level of 1.3825. Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for February 23, 2021 2021-02-23  Overview : The EUR/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.2137. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.2137, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.2137, which coincides with the 78% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.2137 and 1.2200. So, the support stands at 1.2169, while daily resistance is found at 1.2200 . Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.2200. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.2200 with the first target at the level of 1.2250; and continue towards 1.2300. However, if the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.2200 today, the market will decline further to 1.2023. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the EUR/USD pair is still moving between 1.2023 and 1.2300 in coming hours. Forex forecast 02/23/2021 on GBP/USD, SP500, Dow Jones, DAX and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga 2021-02-23 Let's take a look at the technical picture of GBP/USD, SP500, Dow Jones, DAX and Bitcoin at the daily time frame chart.
Author's today's articles: Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Mihail Makarov  - Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy.
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