Friday, February 12, 2021

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Gold prices are falling even amid high demand for bullion coins
2021-02-12

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Gold prices are dropping even amid high demand for bullion coins. Former director of the US Mint said it is because of the current financial crisis. In fact, last week, the US Mint announced that due to strong demand, it is still rationing its sales of silver coins, while at the same time distributing gold and platinum coins to authorized prospective buyers.

Edmund Moy, former director of the US Mint (from 2006 to 2011), said that such rationing happened during the last financial crisis.

"This happened for the first time during my tenure. We found out that several things came together. First, with the financial crisis, demand for gold and silver bullion coins has skyrocketed. But the problem is that demand exceeded supply, " Moy said.

This time, in addition to issues in the supply chain, there are also COVID-related issues where people get sick and production stops.

"With all these disruptions and high demand for gold in a time of inflation and economic uncertainty, I'm not surprised that the US Mint has rationed every possible supply," Moy said. "Right now, demand for investment coins is "off the charts", which is very surprising since the US Mint is already producing supply, in an addition to what is already on the market."

But despite such strong demand, gold prices are still consolidating and cannot consistently surpass $ 1,850.

"The last time demand was so high was during the financial crisis. People panicked and bought gold so prices went up. And because of that, the government started introducing both fiscal and monetary stimulus. After that, gold corrected by about 20-30%. Then, over the next three years, gold began to rally until it set a new record of $ 1,925 in 2011. After that, gold did not decline until it became clear that the economic recovery would be slow, which removed the uncertainty. The Fed also had time to absorb all the excess liquidity before it triggered inflation, " Moy explained.

If you draw a parallel between previous events and the present, a similar pattern emerges. When the pandemic hit, demand and gold prices rose sharply, thereby resulting to new all-time highs. Then, when the government began injecting fiscal and monetary stimulus into the economy, prices corrected.

"If gold follows the same pattern as it did during the financial crisis, we will see a price increase, at least until economic uncertainty and fear of inflation subside," Moy said.

"Gold will set new all-time highs above the August 2020 high before falling," he added.

Moy also noted that several options are at play here, pointing out that Wall Street is overpricing the recovery and underestimating the risk of inflation.

One of the reasons why gold is consolidating is because the market sees a quick economic recovery.

To this, Moy said, "the only reason the US government was able to print so much money while not having significant inflation is because the recovery hasn't really started yet."

"Demand has not caught up with supply, therefore, retailers cannot charge higher prices. The scenario will change if the economy recovers. Aside from that, with all these stimulating dollars, Fed interest rates will skyrocket, but inflation will not stop. It will be faster than the Fed anticipated, which will help gold break out of its trading range," he added.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for February 12, 2021
2021-02-12

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Overview :

The AUD/USD pair climbed from 0.7694 to 0.7773 and closed at the price of 0.7731. But, today we note that the market opens above the level of 0.7694. Please, note that the resistance stands at the levels of 0.7773 and 0.78000 in the daily time frame.

In the longer term, the strong resistance at 0.7830, see also the long-term declining trendline from last year 2020) continues to represent a major hurdle.

Therefore, right now the first descending impulse is forming the first one; the market is being corrected from the area of 0.7694/0.7700 in coming hours.

In our opinion, the AUD/USD pair may grow up to test 0.7694 from above and then form the second ascending impulse with a target at 0.7773 to test the daily top again.

If the trend is able to close above the level of 0.7773, the price will rise into the bullish market in order to go further towards the strong resistance levels of at 0.7800 and 0.7830.

However, the level of 0.7669 will form a double bottom which represents the major support level today. In the the H1time frame, the pair will probably go down because a downward trend is still strong and the RSI is still signaling that the trend is downward.

Conclusion

The depicted support level of 0.7700 acted as an important key level offering a valid buy entry. So, buy above the 0.7700 level with the targets of 0.7773, 0.7800, and 0.7830 today. Conversely, stop loss should be placed below the low reached near the second support (0.7644).

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 12, 2021
2021-02-12

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Overview :

The GBP/USD pair is trading sideways in the nearest term between 1.3750 and 1.3824.

Immediate support is seen around 1.3750. Besides, a clear break below that area could lead the price to the neutral zone in the nearest term testing 1.3715 or lower around 1.3565 in order to form a double bottom on the one-hour chart.

Today, we expect the GBP/USD pair is keeping its bearish momentum bottomed at 1.3780. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 1.3750.

Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3824. The daily pivot point also stands at 1.3750; for that the level of 1.3750 will act as a minor support in coming hours. If the trend is not able to break that area, it could lead the price to the bearish zone in the short run testing 1.3750 - 1.3715.

Moreover, any downside pullback from the price of 1.3865 now is normal, because on the whole we remain bearish at present.

Accordingly, in small time frames the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.3865 is not broken.

Thereupon, it would be wise to sell below the level of at 1.3865 with the primary target at 1.3750. Then, the GBP/USD pair will continue towards the second target at 1.3680 (a new target is around 1.3636).

However, stop loss has always been in consideration. Thus, it will be useful to set it above the R3 of 1.3900.

Alternative scenario:

The breakdown of 1.3824 will allow the pair to go further up to the levels of 1.3865 and 1.3900.

EUR/USD analysis for February 12 2021 - Strong downside on the EUR and potential for the test of downside target at 1.2055
2021-02-12
Japan health minister says aim to give official approval to Pfizer vaccine as early as Sunday

But confirms that the government panel of experts has already given consent to approve the Pfizer vaccine today

This fits with the story reported by NHK earlier here, which is not much of a surprise considering recent developments and the vaccine narrative in Japan.

The government has said that they are planning to begin the vaccine rollout some time this month - as early as mid-February potentially - so this keeps with that "promi

Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that sellers are in control and that there is the downside pressure.

Key Levels:

Resistance: 1,2150

Support levels: 1,2055,1,1955

Analysis of Gold for February 12,.2021 - Strong downsside momentum and potential for bigger drop towards $1.785
2021-02-12
EU's von der Leyen: Recovery fund may start to be dispensed by middle of the year

It only took them about a year since the pandemic to get this settled

The €672.5 billion recovery fund got the go-ahead from parliament yesterday and has been signed today. As much as von der Leyen says that they are going to move "swiftly" with this, waiting another few months before the initial funds are disbursed is quite typical when it comes to the EU trying to sort its political undertakings.

Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that our analysis from yesterday is progressing good and we got the strong downside pressure.

Key Levels:

Resistance: $1,845

Support level: $1,785





Author's today's articles:

Andrey Shevchenko

Andrey Shevchenko

Mourad El Keddani

Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy.

Petar Jacimovic

Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"


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Theme's:
Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets
Author's :
A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda

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