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The best broker in Asia www.instaforex.com Daily analysts mail subscription Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 12, 2021 2021-02-12 EUR/JPY has tested the S/H/S bottom neckline at 127.09 multiple times, which often is followed by a violent break above the neckline and rush higher to the next upside target of 129.06. We still need a clear break above the neckline resistance at 127.09 to activate the bottom-formation. Support is seen at 126.70 and then at 126.43. R3: 128.25 R2: 127.72 R1: 127.50 Pivot: 127.09 S1: 126.70 S2: 126.43 S3: 125.92 Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 125.85 with our stop placed at 126.05 GBP/USD. February 12. COT report. How will the UK GDP report affect the rate of the British dollar? 2021-02-12 GBP/USD – 1H. According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and closed under an upward trend corridor. Thus, the mood of traders is now characterized as "bearish", and the fall in quotes can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3744). In recent days, there have been several important speeches, in particular by Jerome Powell and Andrew Bailey. However, in general, they did not affect the mood of traders in any way. Today, on Friday, perhaps the most important report of this week will be released – UK GDP for the fourth quarter. I would like to note at once that this is not the final value of GDP for this quarter, but an intermediate one. That is, the next time it may be different from the current one. However, in recent months, many traders and analysts have argued about how bad the British economy is feeling because of two "lockdowns" this winter. According to forecasts, GDP will grow by 0.5%, and if this figure is confirmed, it will be just a great result that can support the pound again. However, now this figure still looks too optimistic. And the final estimate of GDP is projected in the negative area, which is two. Thus, the reaction of traders can be very restrained today. Also in the UK, a fairly important indicator of industrial production will be released, which may also grow by 0.5% in December. Thus, the growth may be small in both reports, but all the same height. GBP/USD – 4H. On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the level of 1.3850 and a rebound from it. This rebound allows traders to expect a slight drop in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.3701). Closing the pair's rate above the level of 1.3850 will increase the probability of further growth towards the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.3977). GBP/USD – Daily. On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), which still allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). GBP/USD – Weekly. On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: On Thursday, the calendar of economic events in the UK was empty. In the US – only the report on applications for unemployment benefits. There was practically no information background. News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom: UK - change in GDP (07:00 GMT). UK - change in industrial production (07:00 GMT). US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (15:00 GMT). On February 12, there will be very important statistics in the UK, and in the US - almost an empty calendar of events again. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: The latest COT report from February 2 for the British was much more "calm" than for the Europeans. During the reporting week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 5.5 thousand long contracts and only 2 hundred fewer short-contracts. Thus, the mood of the major players, according to the COT report, has not changed. Speculators continue to maintain a very restrained "bullish" mood, which can not be said by the behavior of the Briton itself, which continues to remain very high and does not show any signs of having a desire to start falling. Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to buy the British dollar at the close above the level of 1.3820 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3895. However, the pair have left the limits of the ascending corridor, so it is not recommended to buy it now. It was recommended to sell the pound sterling at the closing of quotes on the hourly chart under the trend corridor with targets of 1.3744 and 1.3698. These transactions can be supported today. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD. February 12. COT report. The forecasts of the European Commission are disappointing 2021-02-12 EUR/USD – 1H. The EUR/USD pair continued the growth process on February 11, however, the rebound from the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2151) worked in favor of the US currency and began to fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.2104). The consolidation of quotes under the level of 1.2104 will allow traders to count on the continuation of the fall in the direction of the next level of 23.6% (1.2046). There were very few interesting news and events during the past day. By and large, traders have "depicted" this lack of important information on the chart. The activity was minimal. But there was something. The European Commission has updated its GDP and inflation forecasts for the current and next years. Let me remind you that the last time the commission provided its forecasts was in November last year, and then it assumed that economic growth in 2021 would be 4.2%. According to new data, the European economy will grow by 3.8% this year, and by the same amount next year. The European Commission also reported that the average annual inflation in 2021 will be no more than 1.4%, and next year - about 1.3%. As you can see, these figures are far from ideal, and the European Central Bank has repeatedly stated that it will not start raising the rate until inflation returns to the level of 2% or higher. Thus, Europe still faces a long road to recovery, which will depend on many factors, as Christine Lagarde said a day earlier. The ECB chairwoman believes that serious efforts will be required from the governments of all 27 EU countries, from private businesses, and EU citizens themselves. Lagarde insists that the 750 billion euro economic recovery fund be approved as soon as possible, and also calls on governments to spend more and invest in the economy. Against the background of this not very optimistic information, a pullback of the euro/dollar pair down may follow. EUR/USD – 4H. On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes completed a close above the descending trend line, so the mood of traders changed to "bullish". Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the level of 1.2204. However, it is on this chart that you can see how weak the pair's movement is now. Today, the divergence is not observed in any of the indicators. EUR/USD – Daily. On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor, which turned out to be false. Therefore, at the moment, the pair has performed a reversal in favor of the euro and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496). EUR/USD – Weekly. On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On February 11, the US released a report on applications for unemployment benefits, which turned out to be slightly better than traders' expectations. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (15:00 GMT). On February 12, one report on the US consumer sentiment index will be released. We can say that the information background will be absent today. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: Last Friday, another COT report was released. Let me remind you that the European currency has been losing ground over the past week. Therefore, the weakening of the "bullish" mood in the category of "Non-commercial" traders is quite understandable. However, speculators at the end of the reporting week closed as many as 23 thousand long contracts and at the same time increased 11 thousand short-contracts. Thus, their mood became more "bearish". Nevertheless, the growth of the euro currency quotes last Friday and at the beginning of this week indicates that speculators may have rushed with a massive sell-off of the euro. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to buy the euro currency with the targets of 1.2151 and 1.2197 on the hourly chart when closing quotes above the descending trend line on the 4-hour chart. The first goal is achieved. The second is to overcome the level of 1.2151. I do not recommend opening sales today. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Why doesn't the euro continue to grow? When to expect the strengthening of the US dollar? A good UK GDP is unlikely to help the pound 2021-02-12 Considering the scarcity of fundamental data, the corresponding reaction of currency traders was not long in coming. The EUR/USD pair spent the second day in a narrow side channel, and the volatility did not go beyond 40 points, which is quite small, especially given that buyers of risky assets expect the continued strengthening of the trading instrument. EUR/USD and the reasons for the side channel Weak demand for the euro at current highs is directly related to the lack of guidance on where to move next. The idea of a quick coronavirus vaccination is no longer pushing the markets up, as the speed of its implementation was not as fast as many thought. There are no new and necessary statements from central banks, and purchases of the euro at current highs can lead to new verbal interventions in the European currency market, as it was in January this year, which caused an instant drop in the EUR/USD pair. Quarantine measures are still in effect, and so far no one is in a hurry to talk about their cancellation. All this ties the hands of traders and forces them to take a wait-and-see position. On the other hand, the US dollar is also not needed by anyone. Even if we take as a basis the growth of the US economy, which will be clearly faster than the growth rate of the European one, huge financial injections of trillions of dollars stop traders from buying the dollar, since the current policy of the Democrats is clearly aimed at maximizing the injection of money into the economy under any pretext. Yesterday, the US Congressional Budget Office released a report that provides a forecast for the US budget deficit this year. It will be clearly larger than predicted, precisely for the reasons I mentioned above. According to the data, the U.S. budget deficit is projected to be $2.26 trillion this fiscal year, which ends in September 2021. The initial forecast was $1.81 trillion. Last year, the deficit was $3.13 trillion, the largest since World War II. The agency's forecast for the deficit over the next 10 years was more optimistic: the cumulative gap from 2021 to 2030 is expected to be $345 billion less than the previous forecast. It is worth noting that the current forecast considers only the stimulus package for the US economy, which was adopted under Donald Trump in the amount of $900 billion in December 2020. It does not take into account Joe Biden's latest $1.9 trillion proposal, which will further inflate the "books." The report also shows that the increase in the minimum wage is directly related to the loss of jobs, and the checks issued in December have not yet led to an increase in spending by consumers, who are more inclined to save than to rash spending. Apparently, the above report can become quite a weighty argument for Republicans, who can use it to block Joe Biden's new $1.9 trillion proposal. Donald Trump - impeachment Yesterday, the speech of Democrats continued, accusing Donald Trump of provoking the deadly attack on the US Capitol, putting his vice president in danger, and then expressing solidarity with the rioters. For the past two days, all the evidence from the Democrats has been that Trump deliberately ordered his supporters to attack the Capitol through the slogans: "fight like hell" and "act by completely different rules." The arguments were also supported by the testimony of the rioters themselves, some of whom said that they acted on Trump's orders. As for Trump's defense, she went on to invoke the First Amendment action that can be imposed on Trump's speech at the White House on the day of the Capitol attack. Democrats clearly disagree with this position. Joe Biden and COVID-19 Current US President Joe Biden is not particularly concerned about the proceedings. During his speech yesterday, Biden promised that by the end of the summer, the United States will have enough of the COVID-19 vaccine to vaccinate 300 million Americans. Biden also visited the Viral Pathogenesis Laboratory where the COVID-19 vaccine, manufactured by Moderna, was developed. So far, more than 26 million vaccinations have been given in the first three weeks of Joe Biden's tenure as president. One of Biden's campaign promises was to actively oppose the coronavirus. The current US president also announced yesterday that the US has received contractual commitments from Moderna and Pfizer to deliver 600 million doses of the vaccine by the end of July, which is a month earlier than originally expected. As for yesterday's figures, attention was drawn to a report from the US Department of Labor, which recorded a decrease in applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. According to the data, for the week ending February 6, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to 793,000, which is 19,000 less than the previous week's revised level of 812,000. Economists had expected the number of referrals to fall to 757,000. The moving average also fell to 823,000, down 33,500 from the previous week's revised average. The measures taken by the US authorities to support the labor market are bearing fruit, but they are not enough, as the further reduction in the number of new applications for unemployment benefits will occur more slowly. The report on housing prices in the United States was ignored by traders. Low mortgage interest rates for such a long period of time have led to the highest prices and the fastest growth rates in history. The median price of a single-family home rose 14.9% to $ 315,000 in the fourth quarter of 2020 - the biggest increase since 1990. As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the bulls are targeting a large resistance level in the area of 1.2150. Only a break in this range will provide the market with an influx of new major players betting on further strengthening of the euro in the short term. The target will be a fresh high of 1.2190, the breakout of which opens a direct road to 1.2230. In the case of a decline in the trading instrument, I advise you to count on support in the area of 1.2110, but a larger level is visible only in the area of 1.2070, where the bulls will try to build the lower border of the ascending price channel from February 4. Quarterly data on UK GDP, industrial production and foreign trade will draw attention this morning. The UK economy is forecast to have grown by 0.5% in Q4, after growing by 16% in Q3. Industrial output is expected to grow by 0.5%, and the UK's trade deficit in December will be 15 billion pounds, compared with a deficit of 16.01 billion pounds in the previous month. As for the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair, the clear focus of buyers will be to protect the support of 1.3785. If the bulls manage to keep the trading instrument above this level after the GDP data, they can expect a return to the resistance of 1.3820, and then an update to the annual maximum of 1.3870, which they failed to get beyond yesterday. A break of 1.3785 will increase the pressure on the pair. In this case, the nearest major support levels will be seen in the area of 1.3730 and 1.3680. EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 12. COT reports. High was updated, but less hope for euro growth. Bears aim to surpass 1.2110 2021-02-12 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: Yesterday, I did not wait for a normal signal for entering the market, since volatility is very low and it is quite difficult to trade. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. Restoring yesterday's weekly high after going beyond the 1.2139 level confused all the cards. Selling on a bull market was a rather risky business in this case, and returning to the 1.2139 level did not lead to forming a convenient entry point for short positions. Important fundamental data will not be released in the morning, so it is possible that the pair will continue to trade in a horizontal channel. The fact that the bulls failed to surpass yesterday's new high has kept the market on their side, but bears are still hoping to surpass support at 1.2110. By the way, the levels have slightly changed, but the general concept for trading remains the same. If EUR/USD grows in the first half of the day, buyers will be focused on a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2149. Testing this area from top to bottom creates an excellent signal to open long positions in euros as we aim to rise to a high of 1.2187, where I recommend taking profits. Resistance at 1.2220 is still a target. The euro might be under pressure if buyers are not active during the European session. In this case, the bulls will need to focus on protecting support at 1.2110, just above which the moving averages pass. Forming a false breakout in that area creates a good entry point into long positions as we expect to continue the upward trend. If buyers are not active at this level, I recommend postponing long positions until a low like 1.2069 has been tested, from where you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction by 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: I recommend opening short positions against the upward trend this morning, but only in case a false breakout forms in the resistance area of 1.2149, which will generate a signal to sell the euro. Returning to the area below 1.2149 and being able to test it from the bottom up creates a convenient point for entering the market. There is no need to rely on eurozone fundamental reports since they are not available today. An equally important task for sellers will be to return EUR/USD to the support area of 1.2110, as the pair's succeeding direction depends on whether the price will be able to surpass this level. A breakout and being able to test this level from the bottom up will create a new entry point for short positions, which will push EUR/USD to a low in the area of 1.2069, where I recommend taking profits. The 1.2035 level will be a succeeding target. If we continue to observe an upward trend from the euro in the first half of the day, and the bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.2149, then it is best to postpone short positions until a new high at 1.2187 has been tested, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound in order to pull it down by 20-25 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.2220. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 2 revealed a sharp rise in short positions and a reduction in long positions, which reflects the pair's downward correction in late January and early February this year. Weak fundamentals for the eurozone economy and lower economic estimates from the European Central Bank limit the euro's growth potential, so does the fact that vaccinations in the eurozone will proceed at a slower pace than expected. All of this will lead to a double recession in the European economy in early 2021, but it is unlikely to seriously affect the medium-term prospects for the EUR/USD recovery. Therefore, with each significant downward correction, the demand for the euro will only increase, and the lower the rate, the more attractive it will be for investors. The prospect of canceling quarantine will clearly keep the market positive in the future. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions fell from 238,099 to 216,887, while short non-commercial positions rose from 72,755 to 79,884. Due to the sharp decline in long positions, the total non-commercial net position fell to 137,003 against 165,344 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.2067 against 1.2142. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market, or forming a downward correction. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands Volatility is very low, which does not provide signals to enter the market. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 12. COT reports. Buyers of the pound expect good GDP figures for the 4th quarter of 2020. Bears aim to surpass 1.3783 2021-02-12 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Several signals to enter the market were created yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5 minute chart and break it down. Even in my afternoon forecast, I drew attention to forming a signal to open long positions from the 1.3820 level. Testing this range from top to bottom after forming a false breakout was an excellent entry point into long positions. We did not reach the target value of 1.3862, but the upward movement was more than 30 points. The bears managed to settle below the 1.3820 level towards the end of the US session, which led to forming a signal to open short positions, which was realized in today's Asian session. There are a lot of important fundamental statistics on the state of the UK economy today. The GDP report is the most important. We can expect the pound to rise if the indicators turn out to be better than economists' forecasts, which will restore confidence on the future of the British economy. Forming a false breakout and protecting support at 1.3783 will be the initial task of buyers in the first half of the day. You can open long positions in this scenario, expecting the price to return to the resistance of 1.3820, where the moving averages pass, playing on the side of the pound sellers. It is possible to speak about the resumption of the bull market only after a breakout and when the pair settles above 1.3820, which will return GBP/USD to the area of the annual high in the 1.3862 area, where I recommend taking profit. In case buyers are not active in the 1.3783 area, then it would be best to postpone long positions until a more recent low at 1.3732 has been tested, from which you can open long positions immediately on a rebound with a correction of 25-30 points within the day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: Bears will try to settle below support at 1.3783, which they missed earlier this week. However, the downward correction for the pair will only continue if this level is tested from the bottom up, which creates a good signal to open short positions. A weaker report on UK GDP growth rates in the fourth quarter of 2020 may serve as a catalyst for the pound's decline. This will lead to a new wave of decline for GBP/USD with an exit to the low of 1.3732, where I recommend taking profits. A further target will be the 1.3680 area, but it will not be so easy to reach it. In case the pound grows in the first half of the day after the economic data is released, then I recommend considering short positions only after a false breakout is formed in the resistance area of 1.3820. Lack of activity in that area can lead to a significant strengthening of the pair. Therefore, I recommend selling GBP/USD immediately to rebound from a high of 1.3862, counting on a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for February 2 revealed an increase in both long and short positions. This time there were more buyers, which led to an increase in the positive delta. The bulls' desperate attempts to surpass annual highs will lead to success sooner or later, so buyers do not lose hope that the bullish trend will continue in February. Each major decline in the pound prompts major players to raise long positions in anticipation of a more active GBP/USD recovery in the future. Long non-commercial positions rose from 47,360 to 53,658. At the same time, short non-commercial positions increased from 39,395 to 44,042, which prevented bears from taking control of the market. As a result of this, the non-commercial net position rose to the level of 9,616 against 7,965 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3675 against 1.3676. The fact that the bulls held their positions at such a high volatility within the week, once again suggests that the pair is clearly set to overcome annual highs. I recommend betting on the pound's succeeding growth. The demand for the pound will only increase as quarantine measures are lifted, which are expected to be phased out in February this year. The support for the population and the labor market, which will be announced in March, will also have a positive effect on the pound's rate. All the talk about negative interest rates from the Bank of England was postponed indefinitely last week, which allows the pound to spread its wings. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the pair is still under pressure. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A break of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.3783 area will increase the pressure on the pound. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.3840. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Gold: non-gold 2021 growth slowdown will bring 2021-02-12 According to a number of analysts, the current year will not be the most successful for the yellow metal. It will be rich in ups and downs in relation to Gold, but experts do not expect a sharp increase in its price. A day earlier, on Thursday evening, February 11, the price of the precious metal fell slightly after active growth during four trading sessions. As a result, the price of the April Gold futures on the Comex exchange fell by 0.17% to $ 1839 per 1 troy ounce. Since gold has steadily risen in price over the past four days, adding 2.9% on its growth today, slightly corrected. Today, the "sunny" metal is trading near $ 1,822, trying to maintain its own positions. This morning, experts recorded a slight decline in gold (by 0.24%). Its downtrend is due to a slight strengthening of the greenback. This week, the precious metal was supported by the weakening of the USD caused by expectations regarding the adoption of stimulus measures in the United States necessary to support the national economy. Experts do not rule out that at the end of the week, gold will rise in price after a two-week subsidence. However, even a slight strengthening of the USD on the last day of the trading week is negative for Gold quotes. Most experts agree that the coming year is very difficult and ambiguous for the entire precious metals market. According to a number of analysts, over the past year, gold has already shown strong growth, and we should not expect a repeat. In 2020, the yellow metal fulfilled its function, protecting investors as much as possible and preserving their capital. An important role in shaping the dynamics of gold was played by the so-called "plan to save America", implemented by Joe Biden with the help of cash injections. It implies a strong inflow of dollar liquidity to the financial markets and a rise in the price of precious metals, primarily Gold. However, the price of gold depends on the dynamics of the dollar. In case of further weakening of the greenback, the growth of the "solar" metal will increase, and vice versa. According to preliminary estimates, this year the price of the precious metal will remain in the range of $2000 per 1 troy ounce. However, many currency strategists do not agree that gold has almost exhausted its growth potential. Some of them expect the precious metal to rise not in 2021, but in the next two or three years. According to Stephen Innes, an analyst at Axi, the "solar" metal will help the monetary policy of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell this year. In his opinion, the analyst relies on the words of the head of the Federal Reserve, who claims that the US economy will not remain without support, and the rise in interest rates is not needed now. Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair on February 12, 2021 2021-02-12 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Friday, the market from the level of 1.2130 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will move upwards and try to reach the resistance level of 1.2177 (blue bold line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to continue working up with the target of 1.2234 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - up Fibonacci levels - up Volumes - up Candlestick analysis - down Trend analysis - up Bollinger bands - up Weekly chart - up General conclusion: Today, the price from the level of 1.2130 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will move upwards and try to reach the resistance level of 1.2177 (blue bold line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to continue working up with the target of 1.2234 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Alternative scenario: the price from the level of 1.2130 (closing yesterday's daily candle) will move down and try to reach the historical support level of 1.2073 (blue dotted line). When testing this level, the continuation of the lower work is possible with the target of 1.2014 - the support line (white thin line), from which an upward work is possible. Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 12, 2021 2021-02-12 The market continued to accumulate trading forces yesterday, which indicated that there will be sharp price changes soon. The economic calendar included weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, which shows a decrease, but at the same time an increase in their number. Volume of initial applications declined from 812 thousand to 793 thousand, against the forecasted 757 thousand. It is worth considering that the previous data was revised in favor of growth from 779 thousand to 812 thousand. Volume of repeated applications declined from 4 690 thousand to 4 545 thousand, against the expected 4 490 thousand. The previous data was revised in favor of growth from 4 592 thousand to 4 690 thousand. The market did not practically react. Apparently, the value of the US dollar is strengthening against its competitors, but the changes were so insignificant that most traders failed to notice them. What happened on the trading chart? The EUR/USD pair moved to the consolidation stage within the borders of 1.2112/1.2144 after breaking through the interaction area of trading forces of 1.2130/1.2150. Thus, market participants are kept in a narrow range for more than 47 hours. This type of market movement is interpreted as a cumulative process, which ultimately leads to a sharp acceleration by the time a particular border breaks down. The GBP/USD pair entered the pullback stage, whose scale is only 80 points, after it found variable resistance above in the form of price coordinate of 1.3865. The pound's high level of overboughtness increases the risks of a massive correction in case that the speculative interest in the market changes. Trading recommendations on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for February 12, 2021 Today, the UK's GDP for the fourth quarter has already been published. The rate of economic decline slowed down from -8.7% to -7.8%. In quarterly terms, growth was 1%, while 0.5% was expected. In turn, the volume of industrial production in December amounted to + 0.2%, while expecting + 0.5%. The data seems to be positive, but the pound remains unwavering in the pullback direction. Analyzing the current chart of GBP/USD, it can be seen that the pullback stage led us to the level of 1.3786, which is good for developing the correction. However, there is a high level of instability of interest in short positions, which can lead to a reversal and another update of the local trend high. Analyzing the current chart of EUR/USD, the quote is still following the range of 1.2112/1.2144, accumulating trading forces before accelerating. The trading tactics regarding the break down of a particular border in the range remains the same. - Buying a pair is recommended if the price is kept above the level of 1.2155, with the prospect of moving to 1.2185. - Selling a pair is recommended if the price is kept below the level of 1.2110, with the prospect of moving to 1.2090-1.2070. Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 12. Euro is trading upwards. 2021-02-12 To date, global incidence continues to decrease, thereby confirming the idea that the COVID-19 pandemic is ending. In fact, the number of new cases in both US and Europe has decreased significantly, dropping to much lower figures than the recorded peaks. However, vaccination cannot be the reason of the decline. In the most prosperous and large countries, no more than 12% of the population were vaccinated. Obviously, the situation is due to a seasonal decline (in the pandemic), as was the case in the summer of 2020. EUR / USD: euro is consolidating below the week's highs. An upward breakout is very likely. Open long positions from 1.2060 to 1.2010 Longs may also be set from the blue average (highlighted in the chart). Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 02/12/21 2021-02-12 Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market will try to continue moving down from the level of 1.3812 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.3740-13 average EMA (yellow thin line). When this line is reached, the price may continue to move down with the target of 1.3625 at the support line (the red bold line). Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis – down - Fibonacci levels – down - Volumes – down - Candle Analysis – down - Trend Analysis – down - Bollinger Bands – down - Weekly Chart – down General conclusion: Today, the price will try to continue moving down from the level of 1.3812 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.3740-13 average EMA (yellow thin line). When this line is reached, the price may continue to move down with the target of 1.3625 at the support line (the red bold line). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.3812 (the close of yesterday's daily candle), the average EMA (yellow thin line) will try to continue moving down with the target of 1.3740 – 13. When this line is reached, the price may start moving up with the upper fractal target at 1.3865 (red dotted line). Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for February 12, 2021 2021-02-12 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has made a new swing high at the level of 1.3865, but the Pin Bar candlestick made at the top of the rally was an indication of a pull-back. The bears took the control of the market and pushed the price towards the level of 1.3779, which is the key technical support level. Moreover, the price had broken below the short-term trend line support (marked orange on the chart) as well. The momentum on the H4 time frame chart is neutral and pointing down and the market conditions had hit the extremely overbought levels already, so some kind of consolidation or pull-back might take some time. Please notice, that only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.3779 would open the road towards the next target seen at the level of 1.3889, so the bulls can't stop at the current market levels. The level of 1.3757 and 1.3739 will now act as an intraday technical support. There is no indication of the trend reversal so far. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4004 WR2 - 1.3871 WR1 - 1.3816 Weekly Pivot - 1.3685 WS1 - 1.3620 WS2 - 1.3497 WS3 - 1.3434 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and the trigger for this trend was the breakout above the level or 1.3518 on the weekly time frame chart. The recent top was made at the level of 1.3756 and this was the higher close in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for February 12, 2021 2021-02-12 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has fallen out of the acceleration channel and is approaching the trend line support (around the level of 1.2095). The bears has broken below the intraday support and the next target for them is located at the level of 1.2088 and 1.2074 (38% Fibonacci retracement). Please notice, the momentum on the H4 time frame chart is strong and positive, but the market in now in overbought levels, which support the short-term bearish outlook for this pair. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2314 WR2 - 1.2227 WR1 - 1.2130 Weekly Pivot - 1.2038 WS1 - 1.1949 WS2 - 1.1857 WS3 - 1.1765 Trading Recommendations: Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. Forex forecast 02/12/2021 on GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP from Sebastian Seliga 2021-02-12 Let's take a look at the technical picture of GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP after the GDP data from the United Kingdom had been revealed. Make money Deposit funds Author's today's articles: Torben Melsted Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets. Grigory Sokolov Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Pavel Vlasov No data Maxim Magdalinin In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. l Kolesnikova text Sergey Belyaev Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Vladislav Tukhmenev Vladislav graduated from Moscow State University of Technologiy and Management. He entered the forex market in early 2008. Vladislav is a professional trader, analyst, and manager. He applies a whole gamut of analysis – technical, graphical, mathematical, fundamental, and candlestick analysis. Moreover, he forecasts the market movements using his own methods based on the chaos theory. Vladimir took part in development of trading systems devoted to fractal analysis. In his free time, Vladimir blogs about exchange markets. Hobbies: active leisure, sporting shooting, cars, design, and marketing. "I do not dream only of becoming the best in my field. I also dream about those who I will take with me along the way up." Mihail Makarov - Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis.  Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Subscription's options management Theme's: Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets Author's : A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda Edit data of subscription settings Unsubscribe from the mailing list Sincerely, Analysts Service If you have any questions, you can make a phone call using one of the InstaForex Toll free numbers right now: 1 866 8000 719 0 8000 51 88 99 0 800 898 548 1 800 882 528 001 803 017 910 0 800 500 329 822 140 799 8 800 080 5553 Other countries +7 (499) 7042343, +7 (812) 4580351 E-mail: support@instaforex.com InstaForex Group is an international brand providing online trading services to the clients all over the world. 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