| GBP/USD. February 10. COT report. The British pound continues to accelerate 2021-02-10 GBP/USD – 1H. 
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair continued the growth process during the past day and turned out to be around the level of 1.3820 by this morning. The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop in the direction of the level of 127.2% (1.3744) Closing the pair above the level of 1.3820 will increase the chances of further growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.3895). The upward trend corridor characterizes the current mood of traders as "bullish". Meanwhile, the British economy is not feeling any optimism at the moment. I said earlier that the UK's GDP will lose 1-2% in the fourth quarter. The country continues to operate "lockdown", continues the process of vaccination of the population. And although Britain is far ahead of the rest of the European Union in terms of the latest indicator, the British economy is in a deplorable state after Brexit. The Bank of England is on the verge of a new cut in the key rate but has not yet decided to do so. The Labor Party believes that it is necessary now to extend the duration of government funding programs that help businesses and citizens overcome the consequences of the pandemic. The current aid programs are valid until March 3, and new aid programs must be already in effect on March 4, and not as they are now in the United States - Democrats and Republicans have not been able to agree on the amount of financial assistance for their economy for six months. Therefore, British politicians are calling on the British Finance Minister Rishi Sunak to start developing new aid packages now. All this suggests that the British economy is keeping afloat, but without the help of the state and the central bank, it can sink. But all these facts do not pay any attention to bull traders. The British dollar continues the growth process, which is most likely caused by the fall of the dollar. GBP/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a close over the rectangle that displayed the sideways corridor of the last few weeks. Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3977) through the intermediate level of 1.3850. Today, the divergence is not observed in any of the indicators. I recommend paying more attention to the hourly chart, where there is a trend corridor. GBP/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), which still allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084) GBP/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: On Tuesday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US were empty. The influence of the information background was absent. News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom: US - consumer price index (13:30 GMT). UK - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech (17:00 GMT). US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (19:00 GMT). On February 10, there will be speeches by Andrew Bailey and Jerome Powell, as well as an important report on inflation in the United States. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
The latest COT report from February 2 for the British was much more "calm" than for the Europeans. During the reporting week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 5.5 thousand long contracts and only 2 hundred fewer short-contracts. Thus, the mood of the major players, according to the COT report, has not changed. Speculators continue to maintain a very restrained "bullish" mood, which can not be said by the behavior of the Briton itself, which continues to remain very high and does not show any signs of having a desire to start falling. Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to buy the British dollar at the close above the level of 1.3744 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3820. These trades can be held now, and the second (1.3895) is added to the first target (in the case of closing above 1.3820). It is recommended to sell the pound sterling when closing quotes on the hourly chart under the trend corridor with targets of 1.3744 and 1.3698. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD. February 10. COT report. The trial of Donald Trump has begun. The Senate approved the impeachment procedure of the former president. 2021-02-10 EUR/USD – 1H. 
On February 9, the EUR/USD pair continued the growth process all day, having made a consolidation above the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2104) on the new Fibo grid, stretched along the segment of the fall in quotes in January and early February. Thus, after the January losses, the euro currency has recovered by 40% or a little more. And given the nature of the news coming from the US, demand for the US dollar may remain low in the near future. The dollar index is also falling, for the third day in a row. Therefore, I can make a clear conclusion: the dollar is falling, and the euro is not growing. There are two main topics in the US right now. The first is the approval by the US Senate of a $ 1.9 trillion economic aid package, and it seems that there will be no problems with this since both houses of Congress and the president can pass this bill without the help of Republicans. The second is the proceedings in the Senate that began yesterday concerning the impeachment of Donald Trump, who has already left the post of president of the country. Many experts and analysts believe that impeachment will not be announced, since it will take 67 votes of senators to approve this decision. Moreover, there is no special sense in this – Trump is no longer president. However, yesterday it turned out that the Senate could still impeach Trump. At least 56 senators out of 100 voted that the impeachment procedure is legal and constitutional. 6 Republicans voted "for" this decision. Also, Trump's defense in this case looks rather weak. For example, the speech of his main defender in the Senate, Bruce Castor, caused a lot of criticism yesterday, including the former president himself. Also, some sources close to the Senate and Trump report that it is very difficult for the former president to find good lawyers since no one wants to work with him. Thus, Trump's hope is only for 34 Republican senators. If the 34 Republicans in the Senate vote against impeachment, Trump will be saved. EUR/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes completed a close above the descending trend line, so the mood of traders changed to "bullish". Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the level of 1.2204. Today, the divergence is not observed in any of the indicators. EUR/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor, which turned out to be false. Therefore, at the moment, the pair has performed a reversal in favor of the euro and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496). EUR/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On February 9, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States were empty. The influence of the information background on this day was absent. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (13:00 GMT). US - consumer price index (13:30 GMT). US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (19:00 GMT). On February 10, ECB and Fed Presidents Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell will speak, and a fairly important report on inflation in the United States will be released. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
Last Friday, another COT report was released. And I must say that he was very surprised. Let me remind you that the European currency has been losing ground over the past week. Therefore, the weakening of the "bullish" mood in the category of "Non-commercial" traders is quite understandable. However, speculators at the end of the reporting week closed as many as 23 thousand long contracts and at the same time increased 11 thousand short-contracts. Thus, their mood became more "bearish". Nevertheless, the growth of the euro currency quotes last Friday and earlier this week indicates that speculators may have rushed with a massive sell-off of the euro. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to buy the euro currency with the targets of 1.2151 and 1.2197 on the hourly chart when closing quotes above the descending trend line on the 4-hour chart. Now, these positions can be maintained. It is not recommended to open sales today, although an important information background may lead to a certain drop in the pair. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 10. COT reports. Euro continues to rise, bulls aim to surpass next resistance at 1.2129 2021-02-10 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: I paid attention to the 1.2087 level in my morning forecast and advised you to make decisions on entering the market. On the 5 minute chart, I have highlighted the area where the level was surpassed, however, to move into long positions, the reverse test of 1.2087 did not take place in the first half of the day and everything had to be shifted to the US session. Closer to the middle of trading, the bears made several unsuccessful attempts to break through support at 1.2087, which led to creating a signal to open long positions in sustaining the upward trend. As a result, the movement was more than 30 points. However, it was only possible to wait for the 1.2129 target level to be tested in today;s Asian session. 
Important data on inflation in Germany will be released this morning. Recently, German reports have been helping the euro rise, so the emphasis should be placed on this indicator. There will be similar data on the US economy in the afternoon, but we will talk about them later. Also do not forget about the speech of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Euro buyers will focus on the breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2129. Testing this level from top to bottom (similar to yesterday's purchase, which I analyzed above) creates an excellent signal to open long positions in the euro in order to push it to a high of 1.2175, where I recommend taking profits. Resistance at 1.2220 will still be a target. If we receive a disappointing report on the European economy during the European session, as well as a downward correction in EUR/USD, then buyers will need to focus on protecting the support at 1.2087, where the moving averages pass, playing on the side of the bulls. Forming a false breakout there creates a good entry point into long positions, counting on sustaining the pair's upward correction. If buyers are not active at this level, I recommend holding back from long positions until the low of 1.2047 has been tested, from where you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction by 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: I recommend opening short positions this morning against the upward trend, but only in case a false breakout forms in the resistance area of 1.2129, which will generate a signal to sell the euro. Weak data on the euro area and Lagarde's speech on the topic of a slower recovery of the European economy will likely weigh on EUR/USD during morning trading. This will allow the bears to return EUR/USD to the support area of 1.2087, as the pair's succeeding direction depends on whether the price will surpass this level. A breakout and being able to test this level from the bottom up will create a new entry point for short positions, which will push EUR/USD to a low in the area of 1.2047, where I recommend taking profits. The 1.2003 level will be a succeeding target. If we continue to observe an upward trend from the euro in the first half of the day, and the bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.2129, then it is best to postpone short positions until a new high at 1.2175 has been tested, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound in order to pull it down by 20-25 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.2220. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 2 revealed a sharp rise in short positions and a reduction in long positions, which reflects the pair's downward correction in late January and early February this year. Weak fundamentals for the eurozone economy and lower economic estimates from the European Central Bank limit the euro's growth potential, so does the fact that vaccinations in the eurozone will proceed at a slower pace than expected. All of this will lead to a double recession in the European economy in early 2021, but it is unlikely to seriously affect the medium-term prospects for the EUR/USD recovery. Therefore, with each significant downward correction, the demand for the euro will only increase, and the lower the rate, the more attractive it will be for investors. The prospect of canceling quarantine will clearly keep the market positive in the future. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions fell from 238,099 to 216,887, while short non-commercial positions rose from 72,755 to 79,884. Due to the sharp decline in long positions, the total non-commercial net position fell to 137,003 against 165,344 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.2067 against 1.2142. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates continued growth in the euro in the short term. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper level of the indicator in the 1.2129 area will lead to a new wave of euro growth. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2087 area. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 10. COT reports. Bulls brace to surpass next annual high (1.3825), clearing the way to the 1.3879 area 2021-02-10 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: The British pound spent the whole day in a narrow horizontal channel, and so a breakout of resistance at 1.3791 was formed only by the end of the US session. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened there. We can see that it was not possible to wait for a good signal to enter the market from the 1.3791 level, since it was smeared, and entering long positions at the very end of the day while counting on the Asian market is not the best decision. Therefore, I decided to stay out of the market. 
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak today, and if he continues to ignore the topic of negative interest rates, then the pound will continue to grow further. The initial target will be resistance at 1.3825, since the pair's succeeding growth depends on it. A breakout and consolidation above this level, along with being able to test it from top to bottom can create an excellent buy signal in sustaining the bull market, which will hit a number of stop orders of major sellers and result in a sharp rise in GBP/USD towards a high of 1.3879, where I recommend taking profits. More persistent buyers will be waiting for an update of resistance at 1.3918. If the pound is under pressure following Bailey's speech, then forming a false breakout in the 1.3791area will be a signal to open new long positions. The moving averages, playing on the side of the buyers of the pound, are also located there. If traders are not active in the 1.3791 area, then it would be best to wait for a larger downward correction to the support area of 1.3757 and buy the pound there immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: Bears will try to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3825. This scenario will limit the pound's growth potential and create a new signal for short positions. An equally important task is to regain control of support at 1.3791, which they missed yesterday at the end of the US session. We can expect the pound to be under pressure if Bailey raises the topic of negative interest rates, leaving the possibility of their introduction in the future, once necessary. In this case, the pair might settle below 1.3791. Testing this level from the bottom up creates a good signal to sell GBP/USD in order to renew support at 1.3757, where I recommend taking profits. The succeeding target will be the low of 1.3721. If GBP/USD does not rapidly fall even after a false breakout is formed in the resistance area of 1.3825, then it is best not to rush to sell, but wait for a new wave of growth in order for the pound to reach a high of 1.3879, from which you can open short positions immediately on a rebound, counting on a downward correction in 20-25 points within a day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.3918. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for February 2 revealed an increase in both long and short positions. This time there were more buyers, which led to an increase in the positive delta. The bulls' desperate attempts to surpass annual highs will lead to success sooner or later, so buyers do not lose hope that the bullish trend will continue in February. Each major decline in the pound prompts major players to raise long positions in anticipation of a more active GBP/USD recovery in the future. Long non-commercial positions rose from 47,360 to 53,658. At the same time, short non-commercial positions increased from 39,395 to 44,042, which prevented bears from taking control of the market. As a result of this, the non-commercial net position rose to the level of 9,616 against 7,965 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3675 against 1.3676. The fact that the bulls held their positions at such a high volatility within the week, once again suggests that the pair is clearly set to overcome annual highs. I recommend betting on the pound's succeeding growth. The demand for the pound will only increase as quarantine measures are lifted, which are expected to be phased out in February this year. The support for the population and the labor market, which will be announced in March, will also have a positive effect on the pound's rate. All the talk about negative interest rates from the Bank of England was postponed indefinitely last week, which allows the pound to spread its wings. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a further recovery in the pair. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.3825 area will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.3757. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 02/10/21 2021-02-10 Yesterday, the pair moved up, almost tested the upper limit of the Bollinger line indicator of 1.3835 (black dotted line) and closed the daily candle at 1.3812. Today, the price will try to continue moving up according to the economic calendar news, it is expected at 17.00 UTC (pound) and 13.30, 15.30, 17.30, 19.00 UTC (dollar). Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.3812 (the close of yesterday's daily candle) to reach the pullback level of 85.4% at 1.3944 (yellow dotted line). In case of testing this level, there will be an upward movement with the target of 1.4377 (daily candle from 104/17/2018). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis – up - Fibonacci Levels – up - Volumes – up - Candle Analysis – down - Trend Analysis – up - Bollinger Bands – up - Weekly Schedule – up General Conclusion: Today, the price will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.3812 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) to reach the pullback level of 85.4% at 1.3944 (yellow dotted line). In case of testing this level, there will be an upward movement with the target of 1.4377 (daily candle from 04/17/2018). An unlikely scenario: the price will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.3812 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) in order to reach the upper limit of the Bollinger line indicator of 1.3866 (the black dotted line). In case of testing this level, there will be a work going down with the target of 1.3717-13 average EMA (yellow thin line). EUR/USD. US dollar fails to find a leverage 2021-02-10 The US dollar continues to lose its position. The markets are entirely optimistic and this is not good for the US currency, which enjoys being a protective instrument. The dollar index is slowly but surely heading towards the bottom of the 90th figure, after it stayed at two-month highs (91.52) last week. On one hand, the 90.00 mark is a reliable support level, but on the other hand, it acts as a signal for traders. If the dollar bulls fail to hold the currency above this target, then the downward trend will most likely occur. As an example, the dollar index plunged into the area of the 89th mark for several days in early January. And so, the buyers of EUR/USD took advantage of this, who updated the two and a half year high, reaching the level of 1.2350. However, the pair was slightly higher relative to the current position (at the base of the 22nd figure) before this upward breakthrough. Comparing it to now, the essence of it does not change: as soon as the dollar index falls below the 90.00 mark, the US dollar will fall under a wave of sales. It is noteworthy that this scenario is becoming extremely likely. 
Why is the dollar weakening? In my opinion, there are two possible arguments that can be considered. First, the market was clearly rushing to the optimistic conclusion that the US economy will recover at a faster pace, even though the recent macroeconomic releases suggest otherwise. And it's not just about the January Nonfarm, which reflected the weakness of the US labor market. Some other reports also turned out to be much worse than forecasts. For example, US retail sales data (with exception of car sales), was released in the "red" zone. The indicator declined to -1.4%, which was the weakest result since April last year. All other components of the January release were also below zero, reflecting the decline in American consumer activity. We can also recall the production ISM, which fell from 60.5 to 58.7, with a forecasted growth of 60.8 points. In other words, investors were clearly in a hurry to conclude that the Fed may begin to wind down its stimulus programs at the end of this year. Similar rumors were spread in the market earlier this year, providing background support for the greenback. At the moment, this trump card has lost its power due to disappointing statistics. Moreover, during today's speech (19:00 Universal time), Jerome Powell may increase the pressure on the dollar by voicing "dovish" rhetoric, in the form of allowing the expansion of QE. Second, we have the decline in anti-risk sentiment. The corporate reporting season coincided with political issues over the passage of a large-scale bill to provide additional assistance to the US economy. The commotion in the stock market (key indexes updated multi-month lows) allowed dollar bulls to feel confident: the US dollar was in demand as a protective tool. However, we are seeing a similar situation today. The US stock market is showing strong growth, reacting to positive news flow. In particular, representatives of the World Health Organization noted a slowdown in the global spread of COVID-19 this week. In this context, the market also drew attention to the news that Johnson & Johnson has applied for emergency use of its single-dose vaccine against COVID-19. Investors also reacted to the preliminary victory of the Democrats in Congress: they managed to pass a budget resolution that will allow the approval of the almost 2 trillion "American Rescue Plan" by a simple majority – both in the House of Representatives and in the Senate. In anticipation of large-scale fiscal incentives, traders' interest in risky assets has largely increased. However, contrary to this, the US dollar continues to weaken amid a decline in anti-risk sentiment, weak macroeconomic reports and Fed's "dovish" rhetoric. In addition, several experts believe that the adoption of a fiscal stimulus package will accelerate the growth of the current account deficit in the United States and put additional pressure on the national currency. At the same time, the market completely ignored the political hype around Trump's impeachment process. At the close of the US trading session on Tuesday, the US Senate voted in favor of the constitutionality of the impeachment process (and six party members of the former head of the White House also supported the procedure). The trial will last several days if the parties do not call witnesses. This means that by the end of this week, the Senate can make their verdict on Trump. However, the market has completely disregard this topic, especially since the likely result of the vote is known in advance: the majority of Republican senators will not support the charges brought against the former US president. 
In this case, the dollar bulls still can not find an edge to turn the situation in their favor. If the inflation data disappoints today, and Jerome Powell allows QE to expand, the US dollar index may decline below the key level of 90.00, reflecting the weakness of the US dollar. In this case, the buyers of the EUR/USD pair will resume their upward trend. There are two resistance levels on the range: 1.2150 (Kijun-sen line on the daily TF) and 1.2200 (upper line of the Bollinger Bands, which coincides with the upper border of the Kumo cloud on the same time frame). Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 10 2021-02-10 
Global incidence has increased, but despite that, it is clear that the COVID-19 pandemic is ending. In fact, the number of new cases both in US and Europe has decreased significantly, dropping to three times lower than the recorded peaks. At the same time, the pace of vaccination is accelerating, albeit little by little. More than 10% of the population has been vaccinated, although this is clearly not enough to prevent a new wave of the pandemic. 
EUR/USD, H4 chart Pressure on the euro has finally eased. To date, the currency is trading above the key average (thick blue line in the picture above). Continued growth is now expected. Open long positions from 1.2060 to 1.2010. The US will release its latest inflation report today, and it may influence market dynamics and sentiment. Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 10, 2021 2021-02-10 The US dollar failed to defeat the sellers yesterday. Therefore, it will most likely continue to weaken against the euro and the pound sterling. The only data that was released in the economic calendar was the open vacancies in the United States, where the forecasted decline was from 6 527 thousand to 6 500 thousand. But instead of that, it grew by 6 646 thousand, which is considered a positive factor for a further decline in the unemployment rate. However, the market did not make a reaction to the flow of statistical data. What happened on the trading chart? The EUR/USD pair expectedly continued to rise in the direction of 1.2130/1.2150, which should lower the volume of long positions (buy positions) in the long-term. It is fair to note that the quote found a pivot point at 1.1950 last Friday, where the correctional movement of the high of the medium-term stopped, causing a pullback. The GBP/USD pair continues to update the high of the mid-term upward trend, regardless of the pound's high overboughtness. In this situation, there is speculative interest, since otherwise, the technical correction should begin now. In fact, the pound is growing faster than its competitors and is already moving around the high of 2018, albeit the resulting problems within the UK. 
Trading recommendations on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for February 10, 2021 The inflation data in the United States will be published today. It is expected to rise from 1.4% to 1.5%, which may positively affect the value of the US dollar. 13:30 Universal time - Inflation data If we analyze the current trading chart of the EUR/USD, it can be seen that the quote moves within the area of 1.2130/1.2150, which may negatively affect buyers in the future, leading to a reduction in the volume of long positions and a reversal of the quote in the direction of 1.2050/1.2000. An alternative scenario of the market development considers the retention of the quote on the ascending path, where the coordinates of 1.2130/1.2190 can be used as the borders of the lateral oscillation. It should be noted that euro's recovery relative to the corrective move 1.2349 ---> 1.1950 will be actively discussed after the price is held above the level of 1.2200 for a four-hour period. 
As for the current trading chart of the GBP/USD, one can observe that the quote slowed down the growth around the level of 1.3830, forming a local pullback. For another upturn to occur, speculators need to break through the level of 1.3850, which will open the way towards the direction of 1.2900-1.2950. The pound is very overheated, and so, it is suggested to be extremely careful with long positions, since a technical correction may possibly occur soon. 
EUR/USD and GBP/USD: WHO denied the origin of the coronavirus from the laboratory. Euro and Pound continue to gain strength against the weak US dollar 2021-02-10 The European currency continued to rise against the US dollar after the pressure that was caused by the publication of details of the plan to help the US economy, which is promoted by the Democrats. Good indicators for the growth of German exports also appealed to buyers of risky assets, which led to the breakdown of a fairly large resistance level of 1.2085.  To put it simply, Joe Biden's new bill is affecting all economic and social spheres, from education to financial services and the labor market. The new project provides for a $1,400 payment to individuals with a total annual income of up to $75,000, or to couples earning less than $150,000 for two. Eligibility for the payments will depend on income for 2019 or 2020. The account also provides $1,400 for dependent adults and children. Also, the unemployment benefits will be increased. The bill provides for an increase in the weekly federal benefit from $300 to $400. The payments will be valid until the end of August 2021. Benefits for the self-employed will also be expanded. As for the additional benefits, the new president Joe Biden recently announced that he is preparing a package of measures to reduce tax payments to families with children. The decision to increase child benefit payments was also supported by a number of representatives of the Republican Party. From a technical point of view, the further growth of EUR/USD may continue, at least until the trading instrument is above the support level of 1.2085. In this scenario, we can safely count on a larger movement of the pair up to a new high in the area of 1.2130. A break of this range will easily bring back the EUR/USD to the area of 1.2175, where the bullish momentum will slow down very much. If the euro returns to the level of 1.2085, the pressure on the pair will seriously increase, which will necessarily lead to a downward correction to the area of the minimum of 1.2050 or even lower, to the base of the 20th figure, where buyers of risky assets will again actively declare themselves.  ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech did not provide strong support for the euro, but it concerned a rather important point of maintaining monetary policy at the same level. Lagarde said that the continued increase in the number of COVID-19 infections, the mutation of the virus, and strict isolation measures pose a significant risk to the economic activity of the eurozone, which has already been at a fairly weak level since November 2020. Speaking in the European Parliament, Lagarde also noted that it is now more important than ever that monetary and fiscal policy continue to work hand in hand, as this is crucial to support the economic recovery in 2021. Although the outlook for growth is very uncertain, the ECB chief noted that the start of the vaccination campaign in the euro zone allows us to see the light at the end of the tunnel. A more active phase of economic growth is expected as quarantine measures are lifted and the number of coronavirus infections begins to decline. A good support of financial conditions at this moment will be more useful than ever. On the topic of Covid-19, the World Health Organization, which is currently working in China, said that the coronavirus was most likely transmitted to humans through an animal or through frozen animal products. WHO rejected the theory that the virus appeared as a result of a leak from the laboratory. WHO spokesman Peter Ben Embarek noted that no further research is needed to investigate the theory of a virus leak. This theory was put forward by former US President Donald Trump and some other high-ranking officials. According to Ben Embarek, it seems that the virus somehow got to the Huanan market in Wuhan, where the first human infections occurred. A team of specialists is now working to establish the exact circumstances of the virus entry: either it happened through an animal or through food. Frozen wild animals are considered food products. Returning to the figures, it is worth mentioning the report of the Bank of France, according to which the volume of French production in January 2021 was about 5% below the pre-crisis level. The bank warned that all future forecasts are subject to high uncertainty and depend on the further development of the pandemic. Despite the fact that the industry business confidence index remained stable at 97.5 in January, managers predict a slight slowdown in February. Activity in the service sector will also continue to slow in February.  As noted before, the Destatis report on German exports supported the euro, as, despite the quarantine restrictions, the indicator increased in December 2020. Demand is observed from China and the United States, which allows us to give a positive forecast for the beginning of 2021. According to the data, exports increased by 0.1% from November 2020, after an increase of 2.3%. Economists had forecast a fall of 1.0%. Imports fell 0.1% after rising 5.4% in November. The trade surplus in December was almost unchanged at 16 billion euros. On an annualized basis, exports increased by 2.7%, offsetting a 1.2% drop in November 2020. Apparently, Germany's good export line helped the country avoid a contraction in the 4th quarter of last year, but the long-term outlook remains uncertain. Exports to China increased by 11.6%, and to the United States by 8.4%. As for other fundamental data, Italian industrial production declined in December 2020 and did not coincide with economists' forecasts. According to statistics bureau Istat, industrial production fell by 0.2% in December after falling by 1.4% in November. Economists had expected an increase of 0.3%. On an annualized basis, industrial output fell 2.0% in December after falling 4.2% in November.  GBP As the British pound pushes near another one-year high, news has emerged that the UK government will not publish an effective assessment of the trade agreement with the European Union, despite producing similar reviews of other major trade deals it signed last year. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's spokesman Jamie Davis said a detailed forecast was presented last year, along with the pros and cons of a Brexit trade agreement. No one will provide any other confirmation of the correctness of the decision. Based on the terms of the contract, the transaction was beneficial to one and the other party. The UK managed to maintain access to the EU market even though it had to make concessions in the fishing industry. Yes, with the arrival of January 1, the UK's trade with the EU has sunk significantly and is suffering from higher costs and expenses, as well as delays in deliveries and reduced freight traffic. However, new economic relations will eventually be established. This, according to the Office for Fiscal Policy in the UK, in the long term will lead to an increase in gross domestic product by 4%.  As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, buyers are now looking at the resistance at the base of the 38th figure, the breakthrough of which will certainly lead to a test of new highs in the area of 1.3840 and 1.3880. It will be possible to talk about the return of pressure on the trading instrument only after the bears regain control of the level of 1.3750. In this scenario, it will be possible to observe a repeated decline of the pair to the lows of 1.3720 and 1.3680. Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for February 10, 2021 2021-02-10 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has made a new swing high at the level of 1.3826 and keeps going up since the supply zone had been broken. The momentum on the H4 time frame chart is strong and positive, but the market conditions had hit the extremely overbought levels already. Please notice, that only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.3779 would open the road towards the next target seen at the level of 1.3889, so the bulls can't stop at the current market levels. The level of 1.3757 and 1.3739 will now act as an intraday technical support. There is no indication of the trend reversal so far. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4004 WR2 - 1.3871 WR1 - 1.3816 Weekly Pivot - 1.3685 WS1 - 1.3620 WS2 - 1.3497 WS3 - 1.3434 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and the trigger for this trend was the breakout above the level or 1.3518 on the weekly time frame chart. The recent top was made at the level of 1.3756 and this was the higher close in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for February 10, 2021 2021-02-10 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has broken above all of the Fibonacci levels now and keeps going up. The bulls has broken above the short-term trend line resistance and the next target for bulls is the supply zone located between the levels of 1.2154 - 1.2178. The intraday technical support is located at 1.2088 level now. Please notice, the momentum on the H4 time frame chart is strong and positive and market is picking up from the oversold conditions, which support the short-term bullish outlook for this pair. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2314 WR2 - 1.2227 WR1 - 1.2130 Weekly Pivot - 1.2038 WS1 - 1.1949 WS2 - 1.1857 WS3 - 1.1765 Trading Recommendations: Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. 
Simplified wave analysis and forecast of GBP/USD and USD/JPY for February 10 2021-02-10 GBP/USD Analysis: The upward momentum of the British pound led the quotes of the British pound to the area of a large-scale reversal zone. The width of the zone in 3 price figures allows the price to complete the structure of its current wave. There are no signals of an imminent change of course on the chart yet. Forecast: In the coming day, the upward trend of the movement is expected to end and the transition to a sideways drift is expected. After creating conditions for a change of direction, you can wait for the price to move down. The beginning of the decline is likely at the end of the day or tomorrow. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 1.3850/1.3880 Support: - 1.3740/1.3710 Recommendations: Due to the limited potential of the expected growth, buying the pound today may be risky. It is recommended to wait for the appearance of reversal signals to search for selling points of the pair. 
USD/JPY Analysis: The dominant direction of the Japanese yen major is set by the descending wave algorithm of March 26 last year. In the wave structure, the correction section is nearing completion. The price decline that began the day before yesterday has a reversal potential and may be the beginning of a new wave of the main trend. Forecast: In the next trading sessions, the end of the downward course of movement, a reversal, and the beginning of price growth is expected. The upper limit of the expected daily range is shown by the resistance zone. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 105.10/105.40 Support: - 104.40/104.10 Recommendations: Today, yen trading is limited to intraday trading. Selling the pair will be possible after a clear reversal signal appears on the chart. When buying, it is better to reduce the trading lot. 
Explanation: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The solid background of the arrows shows the formed structure, and the dotted line shows the expected movements. Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time! Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 10, 2021 2021-02-10  Overview : The market opened above the daily resistance (105.08). It continued to move downwards from the level of 105.08 to the bottom around 104.49. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 105.08 followed by 105.78, while daily support 1 is seen at 104.19. The USD/JPY pair broke support which turned to strong resistance at 105.08. Right now, the pair is trading below this level. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the support (105.08) which is expected to act as major resistance today. This would suggest a bearish market because the moving average (100) is still in a negative area and does not show any signs of a trend reversal at the moment. Amid the previous events, the USD/JPY pair is still moving between the levels of 105.08 and 102.61, so we expect a range of 247 pips in coming days. Therefore, the major resistance can be found at 105.08 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 104.19. If the trend breaks the minor support at 103.36, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 102.61 in order to test the daily support 2. On upside : The RSI is still calling for a strong bullish market as well as the current price is also above thespot of 104.19. Therefore, it will be advantageous to buy above the current level of 104.19 with the first target at 105.08 in order to retest the weekly resistance 1. From this point, if the pair closes above the weekly resistance 1 of 105.08 on the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair may resume its movement to 105.78 to form a new double top. Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay below the area of 103.36/102.61cthis week. Forex forecast 02/10/2021 on EUR/USD, SP500, Dow Jones, DAX and Crude Oil from Sebastian Seliga 2021-02-10 Let's take a look at the technical picture of EUR/USD, SP500, Dow Jones, DAX and Crude Oil at the daily time frame chart
Author's today's articles: Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko Mihail Makarov  - Vladislav Tukhmenev  Vladislav graduated from Moscow State University of Technologiy and Management. He entered the forex market in early 2008. Vladislav is a professional trader, analyst, and manager. He applies a whole gamut of analysis – technical, graphical, mathematical, fundamental, and candlestick analysis. Moreover, he forecasts the market movements using his own methods based on the chaos theory. Vladimir took part in development of trading systems devoted to fractal analysis. In his free time, Vladimir blogs about exchange markets. Hobbies: active leisure, sporting shooting, cars, design, and marketing. "I do not dream only of becoming the best in my field. I also dream about those who I will take with me along the way up." Pavel Vlasov  No data Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Vyacheslav Ognev  Vyacheslav was born on August 24, 1971. In 1993, he graduated from Urals State University of Economics in the Russian city of Ekaterinburg holding a degree in Commerce and Economics of Trade. In 2007, he started concentrating on the Russian stock market, trading stocks on the RTS Stock Exchange and futures contracts on FORTS. Since 2008 he has been engaged in analyzing Forex market and trading currencies. He is an author of a simplified wave analysis method. He has also developed a trading strategy. At present, Vyacheslav is a co-author of training materials on two web portals dedicated to Forex trading education. Interests: fitness, F1 "Experience is the best of schoolmasters, only the school fees are heavy." - Thomas Carlyle Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy.
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A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
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