Axios Sports Special: Super Bowl LV preview

1 big thing: 🏆 Pandemic-style Super Bowl | Friday, February 05, 2021

Open in app View in browser     Axios Sports By Kendall Baker ·Feb 05, 2021 🏈 Happy Friday! Let's preview the Super Bowl. Today's word count: 1,838 words (7 minutes).     1 big thing: 🏆 Pandemic-style Super Bowl Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   Super Bowl LV will be the most-watched TV broadcast of 2021, bringing roughly 100 million Americans together for a few hours of unity and entertainment. Why it matters: All Super Bowls are culturally important, but this year's "Big Game," more than any before it, will offer a reflection of the country. American citizens, and even those watching from abroad, will gauge the national state of affairs by what they see on the broadcast. "The game represents an odd chance for an American makeover — a new year, a new administration, a new outlook," writes NYT's John Branch. The big picture: When the Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV in Miami, "social distancing" was not even a term. 369 days later, it is our way of life — and will be on full display in Tampa, where there will be more cardboard cutouts (30,000) than fans (25,000). Upon entry into Raymond James Stadium, each fan will be given a face mask, an item that was foreign to us a year ago, yet is now an important member of the wallet-keys-phone checklist before leaving the house. What to watch: The pregame festivities will be subdued, setting the tone for a four-hour broadcast in which the NFL and CBS must find a delicate balance between pure "escapism" and the reality of the moment. Three honorary captains — a nurse, teacher and a Marine veteran — will take part in the coin toss. Amanda Gorman, fresh off her star turn at President Biden's inauguration, will recite an original poem. The national anthem, a duet by Jazmine Sullivan and Eric Church, will be preceded by a performance of "America the Beautiful" by H.E.R. The bottom line: Super Bowl LV will be a restrained spectacle, but there's still potential for plenty of magic, starting with the dream QB matchup of Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Game details: Time: 6:30pm ET Network: CBS Announcers: Jim Nantz and Tony Romo Weather forecast: 73°F, 56% chance of rain     2. 🏈 Matchup: On one side of the ball... Note: *Sammy Watkins, Vita Vea and Jordan Whitehead are all banged up but expected to play. Table: Michelle McGhee/Axios The Chiefs are the poster child for "passing the eye test" (emphasis on passing), Axios' Jeff Tracy writes. Yes, but: While everything stems from Patrick Mahomes' singular talent, Andy Reid and OC Eric Bieniemy's evolving strategy can't be overlooked. 40.5% of Mahomes' passes resulted in first downs this season (up from 36.5% in 2019), likely thanks to the decision to cut down on deep balls. Last year, Kansas City completed a league-high 18 passes of 40+ yards; this year, that fell to just eight, but they scored on six of them and led the league with 69 passes of 20+ yards. This more balanced attack, using the very real deep threat to open up the middle of the field for Travis Kelce and slot receivers, paid big dividends. What they're saying: "Everyone fits the system because the system is built to include everyone," writes The Ringer's Kevin Clark. "From a GM standpoint, you don't have to get pigeonholed into wondering if this guy is a good fit for what we do. If we like the guy, and we like the skill set, Coach will figure out a way to highlight it." — Chiefs GM Brett Veach On defense ... the Bucs are as well-equipped as anyone to stop the juggernaut they're facing, with a trio of reclamation projects — Ndamukong Suh, Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul — forming the league's most fearsome pass rush. In the NFC title game, Packers star OT David Bakhtiari's absence opened the door for five Bucs sacks. How many can they rack up with Chiefs star OT Eric Fisher similarly out? Go deeper: 20 stats to know (For The Win)     3. 🏈 Matchup: On the other side of the ball... Note: *Antonio Brown missed the NFC Championship with a knee injury, but was a full participant in Thursday's practice. Table: Michelle McGhee/Axios "No risk it, no biscuit," Bruce Arians' catchy coaching philosophy that could be loosely translated to "go big or go home," is proving rather successful when implemented by the right personnel, Jeff writes. Tom Brady, like 2019 Bucs QB Jameis Winston, led the league in intended air yards (total air yards on all passes, complete or not) and threw the second most touchdowns. But while Winston's 2019 interception rate was by far the NFL's worst (4.8%), Brady limited the damage such a freewheeling strategy is prone to yield (2%). Though 12 picks are Brady's most since 2011, he also cracked 40 TD for just the second time ever, liberated by a new system and armed with the best receiving corps of his career. What to watch: Penalties, or more specifically, Tampa Bay's ability to draw them. Bucs' opponents were charged with 24 pass interference penalties during the regular season, the highest total since at least 1985. "If pass interference were a person, it would be the Buccaneers' sixth most productive receiver, contributing more yardage to their passing game than tight end Cameron Brate." — Mike Tanier, NYT On defense ... pressuring Brady is of paramount importance, as his 84.3 QBR this year without seeing pressure was fifth best, but his 6.4 QBR (!!!) under pressure ranked 30th. Here, the Chiefs do have matchup advantages, as stud linemen Chris Jones and Frank Clark could bully the Bucs' guard duo of Ali Marpet and Aaron Stinnie, who both rank near the bottom in pass-block win rate. Go deeper: All 55 Super Bowl QB matchups, ranked (WashPost)     A message from Axios How to navigate COVID-19's impact on the markets     Axios markets editor Dion Rabouin provides the latest economic news and crucial insights every weekday in Axios Markets. In turbulent times, Dion puts a sharp lens on the shifting worlds of the global markets. Subscribe for free     4. 😷 Meet the players who opted out Clockwise from top left: Damien Williams, Brad Seaton, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Lucas Niang. Photos: Getty Images   66 players opted out of the NFL season because of the pandemic. Four of them play for the Chiefs and Bucs. These are their stories, Jeff writes. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (RG, Chiefs): The 2014 sixth-round pick was one of six Chiefs to play every offensive snap in Super Bowl LIV. Why he opted out: He was the first NFL player to formally opt out, choosing instead to put his medical degree to use, working at a long-term-care facility near his native Montreal. "If I am to take risks," he wrote in his opt-out statement, "I will do it caring for patients." Damien Williams (RB, Chiefs): From 2014 undrafted free agent to Super Bowl star. His line in last year's game (133 total yards, 2 TD) was as good as anyone's. Why he opted out: After his mother was diagnosed with Stage 4 cancer, he decided being by her side was more important than anything else. "My mom is my rock, my everything, so during a hard time like this, I think I should be next to her every step." Brad Seaton (OT, Bucs): The 2017 seventh-round pick, and the lone Bucs opt out, has bounced around the league but has yet to play a snap in his NFL career. Why he opted out: "While I love the sport and know I will miss all aspects of being part of this year's team, I ultimately decided to put the health and safety of my family first," he wrote. Lucas Niang (OL, Chiefs): The rookie third-rounder out of TCU was unlikely to start this year, but was seen as a possible future replacement for veteran tackle Eric Fisher ... who's missing the Super Bowl with an Achilles injury. Why he opted out: He never provided specifics, but he of course never had to. Of note: He was one of five rookies, but the only drafted one, to opt out. Go deeper: Whatever happened to the players that opted out? (ESPN)     5. 🏟 55 in a row: The streak continues Don Crisman at his home in Kennebunk, Maine. Photo: Gregory Rec/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images Don Crisman went to the first Super Bowl, back before they called it a Super Bowl and tickets cost $12. He hasn't missed one since. The pandemic put his streak in jeopardy, and as recently as last month, Crisman didn't think he'd be able to make it 55 for 55. But after a call from the NFL and a vaccine shot, Crisman will be in Tampa on Sunday — along with some Super Bowl-loving friends. Meet the clubs... The "Never Miss a Super Bowl Club" began with Crisman and four others. Membership has been fluid over the years, with some people dying and others recruiting friends. Currently, there are three members — and they're all in Tampa. Don Crisman, 84 (Kennebunk, Maine) Gregory Eaton, 81 (Lansing, Michigan) Tom Henschel, 79 (Pittsburgh) L to R: Harvey Rothenberg, Lew Rapaport, Sylvan Schefler. At bottom: Al Schragis (deceased). Not pictured: Larry McDonald. Courtesy: Sylvan Schefler The "Super Bowl Five" is now a group of four after the 2018 death of charter member Al Schragis. Only two will be in attendance on Sunday, as one member chose not to travel and another contracted COVID-19 last week. Sylvan Schefler, 82 (New York) Harvey Rothenberg, 87 (Boca Raton, Florida) What they're saying: "It's a story about friendship," Schefler told USA Today. "It's really not a story — yes, it's the Super Bowl, a big game, the raison d'etre — but it's about friendship." Of note: Rothenberg has had both of his vaccine shots. Crisman, Eaton and Schefler have had their first shots. Henschel said he won't get vaccinated.     6. 🎉 Women making history (and growing the game) Sarah Thomas. Photo: Wesley Hitt/Getty Images   Sarah Thomas will become the first female official to work the Super Bowl on Sunday, while the Bucs' sideline will have two female coaches: Lori Locust, assistant defensive line coach Maral Javadifar, assistant strength and conditioning coach "I never set out to be the first. But knowing the impact I'm having on not just on my daughter, but young girls and women everywhere ... When I get on that field and take it all in, I'm probably going to get a little teary-eyed." — Thomas ICYMI ... Nike and the NFL announced a new $5 million grant initiative dedicated to growing girls flag football at U.S. high schools. State athletic associations that either already offer girls flag football or launch a program this year will receive $100,000 worth of Nike products. Only six states currently sanction high school flag football for girls: Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and New York. The big picture: There are 1 million fewer high school female athletes than male athletes, mainly due to football. Nike is looking to help close that gap. P.S. ... While Thomas is making history, she's also part of a trend of more women officiating at the top levels of men's sports.     7. 💵 Betting lines Data: American Gaming Association; Cartogram: Axios Visuals The Super Bowl is one of the biggest sports betting events of the year, and 20 states plus Washington, D.C. currently offer legal opportunities to place wagers. For the rest of America, there's always the thriving offshore market. Lines: Spread: KC -3.0 Over/Under: 56 Moneyline: KC -165 (bet $165 to win $100); TB +145 (bet $100 to win $145) Go deeper: "Mattress Mack" places $3.46 million wager on Bucs at +3.5 (ESPN)     Bonus: 💵 Prop bet challenge Table: Michelle McGhee/Axios How to play: A correct answer is worth a point. Most points wins. Tiebreaker is there if you need it. Take a screenshot, share with friends and compete against your watch party!     8. ⚡️ Lightning round Photo: Kevin Mazur/Getty Images for TW   🎶 The Weeknd will perform on a stage set up in the stands in an attempt to limit contact with players and coaches. His act may, however, include a brief interlude on the field, per NYT. 🇺🇸 Joe Biden's first one-on-one interview as president will be conducted by CBS' Norah O'Donnell and will air sometime in the 4pm ET hour on Sunday. 📺 Jim Nantz could be a free agent this summer and ESPN is reportedly lurking. Nantz is seeking a similar contract to the 10-season, $180 million deal Tony Romo signed, per the New York Post. 🐓 The chicken industry will go through ~1.4 billion wings this weekend, up 2% from last year, WashPost reports. 🏀⚾️🏈 Good read: In high school, football was seen as Patrick Mahomes' third-best sport, behind basketball and baseball. "He's incorporated three sports into one," his father told WSJ (subscription).     9. 🍺 Advertising trivia Giphy Bud Light (56) and Budweiser (39) have aired the most Super Bowl ads of any brand this century. Question: What three brands round out the top five? Hint: Drink, food, car. Answer at the bottom.     10. 1 stocks thing: 📈 The S&P loves Tampa Reproduced from LPL Financial; Chart: Axios Visuals Equity investors with no dog in the fight should cheer for the Buccaneers, as the team has historically delivered the best S&P 500 returns after winning the Super Bowl, Axios' Dion Rabouin writes.     A message from Axios How to navigate COVID-19's impact on the markets     Axios markets editor Dion Rabouin provides the latest economic news and crucial insights every weekday in Axios Markets. In turbulent times, Dion puts a sharp lens on the shifting worlds of the global markets. Subscribe for free   Enjoy the game, Kendall "Dilly Dilly!" Baker Trivia answer: Pepsi (25), Doritos (24), Hyundai (22) Invite friends to follow Axios Sports Use your personal link to track how many readers you bring into the community You currently have 00 referrals. 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