News: POLITICO Florida Playbook: The unbeatable Marco Rubio? — DeSantis to roll out budget — Shane Strum's exit strategy

Thursday, January 28, 2021

POLITICO Florida Playbook: The unbeatable Marco Rubio? — DeSantis to roll out budget — Shane Strum's exit strategy — Parkland parent rips Rep. Greene

Jan 28, 2021

Good Thursday morning.

The daily rundown — Between Tuesday and Wednesday, the number of Florida coronavirus cases increased by 8,408 (0.5 percent), to 1,676,171; active hospitalizations went down by 96 (1.4 percent), to 6,679; deaths rose by 160 (0.6 percent), to 25,833.

The Marco factor — Few Republicans are more loathed by Democrats than Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Many have never looked at him the same since, after helping to draft the 2013 bipartisan immigration bill, he backed away under conservative pressure. They mock him as an opportunist or a Donald Trump sycophant. With an approval rating under 50 percent, Rubio would seem ripe for a takedown in next year's election. But right now, Florida Democrats don't have much confidence they can topple him.

Steering away — The state's top Democratic prospects are instead jockeying to run for governor against Rubio's fellow Republican, Ron DeSantis. And the architecture of Trump's Florida victory in November revealed just how difficult it will be to knock off the two-term senator in a general election in the giant, expensive and red-leaning state.

'Tough to beat' — Steve Vancore, a veteran Democratic pollster and strategist, told POLITICO's Marc Caputo: "For a variety of reasons, Rubio will be tough to beat — whether because it is an off-year election, his Miami roots or his profile — that's hardly a surprise to anyone and I believe that is why there is an absence of big names lining up early."

Not me — Marc reports that the political operations of President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are trying to recruit one of two Orlando-area congresswomen — Val Demings, who was on Biden's vice-presidential shortlist, and Stephanie Murphy — to challenge Rubio, but so far they've been noncommittal, according to four sources familiar with the efforts. Other prominent Democrats with statewide profiles — from Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried to Rep. Charlie Crist, a former governor and Rubio Senate opponent — are maneuvering with the governor's mansion in mind.

— WHERE'S RON? — Gov. DeSantis will be in Tallahassee, where he will release his budget recommendations.

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TRAIL MIX

CRUSING INTO 2022? — 'What Democrat beats that guy?' Top Dems flinch from Rubio challenge," by POLITICO's Marc Caputo: The reasons for the hesitance to take on Rubio are myriad. Among the biggest issues are the astronomical cost of running a statewide Senate race in Florida to the sorry state of the state Democratic Party, which typically fares poorly in midterm elections. But none worry Democrats as much as the bilingual Cuban-American's ethnicity and his home base in Miami-Dade. The state's most populous county, Miami-Dade is where Democratic candidates need to run up the score to offset losses elsewhere in the state. And as Florida's top Hispanic politician, Rubio begins there with a critical advantage. "Any Hispanic Republican statewide messes the math up terribly for Democrats," said Eric Johnson, who advised Rubio's 2016 Democratic opponent, former Rep. Patrick Murphy. "Once a Republican starts taking a chunk of the Hispanic vote, they're almost unbeatable. And with Marco being from Miami-Dade County, it's just really difficult to get there."

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., asks a question during a Senate Foreign Relations committee hearing on the State Department's 2021 budget on Capitol Hill.

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., asks a question to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a Senate Foreign Relations committee hearing on the State Department's 2021 budget on Capitol Hill Thursday, July 30, 2020, in Washington. (Greg Nash/Pool via AP)

'IT IS ILLEGAL BEHAVIOR' — "Far right influencer charged in 2016 Clinton voter scheme," by The Associated Press' Tom Hays: "A self-styled far-right propagandist was arrested in Florida on Wednesday on charges he used social media to try to suppress votes for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election, federal prosecutors said Wednesday. A criminal complaint accused 31-year-old Douglass Mackey — known on the internet as 'Ricky Vaughn' — of anonymously conspiring with others in late 2016 to use Twitter and other social media to try to trick Clinton supporters to vote via text instead of casting an actual ballot."

... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

COMING THIS A.M. — Gov. Ron DeSantis will release his state budget recommendations on Thursday, offering a blueprint for how Florida can navigate the next year as the coronavirus pandemic continues to leave the state's economy in shambles. The recommendations, which will go to the Republican-controlled state Legislature this spring, will be closely examined since the state is grappling with a potential shortfall of at least $2 billion. GOP legislators have already warned they will likely need to enact painful budget cuts this year, while at the same time contemplating ways to raise more money, including through a college tuition hike and by making it easier for the state to collect sales taxes from online purchases. The question is whether DeSantis will endorse this approach in the proposals he presents to lawmakers. The governor's spending plan will cover the fiscal year that begins on July 1.

IN THE DEPARTURE LOUNGE? — "Shane Strum, chief of staff to Gov. Ron DeSantis, is a leading candidate to become Broward Health's next CEO," by Sun Sentinel's Skyler Swisher: "Shane Strum, chief of staff to Gov. Ron DeSantis, is a leading candidate to become the next CEO of Broward Health. The hospital system's board voted Tuesday to fast track interviews with Strum and two other finalists. Strum, a Fort Lauderdale resident, works behind the scenes in Tallahassee, but he holds one of the most powerful and important nonelected positions in state government. As chief of staff, he helps to craft DeSantis' message, oversee more than 20 state agencies and work with state legislators on key priorities. His deep South Florida ties provide local leaders with a direct line of communication with the governor's office."

25 months away from home — It's not unusual for governors to deal with turnover halfway through their term, but Strum's looming departure could be a big one for DeSantis. He has been a key part of DeSantis' leadership team, but his wife and family still live in Broward County and he has been eager to return home. Strum has kept a relentless pace while at the Capitol and is known for constantly working weekends and well into the night.

MEANWHILE — "DeSantis shakes up top staff ahead of 2021 session," by POLITICO's Matt Dixon: Gov. Ron DeSantis reshuffled some of the senior staff in his administration on Tuesday, his spokesperson Meredith Beatrice has confirmed, a move that comes as the governor prepares for his third legislative session in office. The picks: DeSantis promoted Beau Beaubien, who previously served as DeSantis' Cabinet affairs director, to the deputy chief of staff level. Beaubien has been a longtime DeSantis aide, and is one of the last remaining staffers who worked on the governor's 2018 campaign. … DeSantis has also promoted to deputy chief of staff Anna DeCerchio, who since January 2019 served as a deputy policy director in DeSantis' budget office. Prior to that, she was a legislative aide for state Rep. Paul Renner (R-Palm Coast)….DeSantis also promoted Chris Spencer to director of policy and budget after serving as "acting" budget chief for most of DeSantis' time in office.

SPEAKING OF THE BUDGET — "Lawmakers eye school funding amid Florida's K-12 enrollment 'disaster,'" by POLITICO's Andrew Atterbury: Thousands of missing students across Florida have made school funding a tempting target for state legislators grappling with a multibillion-dollar budget gap. Schools are currently receiving full funding from the Legislature regardless of their enrollment numbers, but state Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach), the education budget chief in the Florida House, warned on Wednesday that may not hold true next year. With enrollment down more than 88,000 students for 2020-21 in the state's latest projections, Fine said fully funding schools that see fewer students in the future would set a "dangerous precedent."

ALREADY ON THE MOVE — "Protest bill backed by governor, Republican lawmakers draws its own vigorous protests," by Miami Herald's Ana Ceballos: "Gov. Ron DeSantis and Republican legislative leaders are prioritizing a bill that seeks to clamp down on riots and violent protests, but the measure is quickly drawing heavy criticism from public defenders, local governments, some conservatives within the GOP and even pop superstar Ariana Grande. House Bill 1 cleared the House Criminal Justice and Public Safety Subcommittee along party lines on Wednesday, after facing sustained fire from Democrats and roughly 70 speakers during a two-hour meeting."

ARE HOUSE REPUBLICANS BODYGUARDS? — "FL Surgeon General is blocked from taking questions about the COVID crisis; lawmaker calls it a sham," by Florida Phoenix's Isaac Morgan: "Florida's top health chief has largely been silent for months about the global pandemic and other public health issues, and Wednesday was the day that he would be participating at a legislative committee meeting. As it turned out, the committee chairman wouldn't allow members to ask questions to Florida Surgeon General Scott Rivkees, causing a fiery exchange and one lawmaker calling the situation a 'sham.' 'The (Florida) House as a body, we haven't heard from the Surgeon General in 11 months since we last convened,' said State Rep. Carlos Smith, a Democrat representing part of Orange County."

ON YOUR RADAR — "State Republicans eye exceptions to minimum wage hikes," by News Service of Florida: "Less than three months after voters overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment to raise Florida's minimum wage, a Senate Republican on Wednesday filed a proposal that could lead to exceptions for some workers. The amendment, approved in the November election, will increase the minimum wage to $10 an hour on Sept. 30 and lead to annual increases until it is $15 an hour on Sept. 30, 2026. But Senate Judiciary Chairman Jeff Brandes, R-St. Petersburg, filed a proposal Wednesday that, if approved, would allow the Legislature to provide a reduced minimum wage for workers under age 21, for workers convicted of felonies, for state prisoners and for 'other hard-to-hire employees.'"

— "Anna Eskamani targets Universal Orlando tax break," by Florida Politics' Scott Powers

— "Florida Senate resolution denounces democratic socialism," by The Associated Press

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CORONAVIRUS UPDATES

ABOUT THOSE VACCINE NUMBERS — "DeSantis: COVID-19 vaccine backlog will quickly drop as more people get second shot," by Orlando Sentinel's Steven Lemongello and Richard Tribou: "Thousands of Floridians will soon receive their booster shots of the COVID-19 vaccine, which will quickly whittle away at the 1.3 million doses the state has in storage, Gov. Ron DeSantis said Wednesday. 'You're going to start to see [50,000 to] 60,000 second doses a day very soon, and that's very important,' DeSantis said at the Sun City Center Community Hall, the site of a new 'pod' site expected to vaccinate 1,000 people a day for five days. A similar site is set to open in the Solivita senior community in Osceola County on Thursday."

SEEKING HELP — "Some Black communities in Florida have no vaccine access," by The Associated Press' Terry Spencer: "The predominantly Black farming communities on Lake Okeechobee's shores are at least 25 miles (40 kilometers) from the nearest Publix supermarket — and that's a problem, as Gov. Ron DeSantis has given the chain sole distribution rights for the coronavirus vaccine in Palm Beach County. That prompted the mayors of Belle Glade, Pahokee and South Bay to send DeSantis a letter this week, asking him to expand the county's distribution network as it will be impossible for many senior residents of these low-income towns to get their shots. Some say that is a problem in poor communities statewide."

INTO THE LIGHT — "Biden COVID team releases 'previously hidden' Florida report," by Orlando Sentinel Kate Santich : "The new White House COVID-19 team released its first 'previously hidden' state profiles Wednesday, showing Florida's coronavirus infection rate fell 19% last week but deaths continued to climb. The state profiles were previously shared by the Trump administration's coronavirus task force only with state officials, and most states, including Florida, never released them to the public. The Orlando Sentinel had to file a lawsuit against Gov. Ron DeSantis in December to force the disclosure of the information."

'THEY DESERVE THIS PROTECTION' — "COVID-19 protections sought for Florida workers," by News Service of Florida's Christine Sexton: "As the Republican-led Legislature moves quickly to provide broad COVID-19 liability limits for businesses, some lawmakers say additional protections should be provided for "essential" and front-line employees showing up for work. Members of House and Senate panels have expressed concerns that workers who allege they contracted COVID-19 on the job aren't getting workers' compensation benefits."

— "Tampa Mayor Jane Castor will issue outdoor mask order for Super Bowl 55," by Tampa Bay Times' Charlie Frago

— "Florida man guilty of laundering stolen COVID relief funds," by Associated Press

— "Palm Beach County can enforce mask mandate, court rules," by Sun Sentinel's Rafael Olmeda

— "Fire captain accused of stealing vaccine turns himself in," by Associated Press

THE GUNSHINE STATE

CONFRONTATIONS — "'She is going to confront her lies': Parkland parent rips Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene," by POLITICO's Gary Fineout: A video of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene confronting David Hogg, a gun control activist and Parkland shooting survivor, years ago surfaced online Wednesday, fueling a new wave of outrage over the Georgia Republican's history of questioning a dark chapter in Florida that left 17 dead. Greene, in the video, which was apparently filmed just weeks after the 2018 Parkland shooting, calls Hogg a "coward" because he walks away from her and complains Hogg was able to meet with senators. "He had 30 appointments where he went around and got to talk to senators. I got to talk to none," Greene said, adding "Guess what? I'm a gun owner. I'm an American citizen. And I have nothing. But this guy with his George Soros funding and his major liberal funding has got everything."

'She is a fraud' — Fred Guttenberg, whose daughter was one of the victims in the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, put up the video on Twitter as part of his campaign to highlight [Rep. Marjorie Taylor] Greene's positions on the issue. "She is going to confront her lies," he said in a phone interview on Wednesday. "She is a fraud. She has no place being the halls of Congress. I do intend to bring her evidence of my daughter's murder."

DATELINE D.C.

UNIFIED AGAINST MADURO — A bipartisan coalition in Congress led by Rep. Michael Waltz is targeting Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro. Waltz on Thursday will introduce legislation to prohibit government contracting with persons that have business operations with the Maduro regime. Among the co-sponsors on the bill are Florida Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Mario Diaz-Balart, Alcee Hastings, Carlos Gimenez, Maria Salazar, Bill Posey and Matt Gaetz. "The U.S. must use every means necessary to strip any funding mechanisms that helps bolster the illegitimate and corrupt Maduro socialist regime," Waltz said in a statement about the bill. "This bipartisan legislation sets the roadmap for other countries to follow in hopes of restoring freedom and prosperity for the people of Venezuela."

Expanding restrictions — Wasserman Schultz said that "doing business with a criminal and murderous Maduro regime will only prolong the pain inflicted on the Venezuelan people. American taxpayer money should never further the reign of this narco-terrorist, directly or indirectly." Florida is home to a large number of Venezuelan exiles, primarily in South Florida. In one of his final acts as president, Donald Trump offered Venezuelans protection from deportation. There are already sanctions in place against American companies that do business with Venezuela, but Waltz's bill — the "Banning Operations and Leases with Illegitimate Authoritarian Regime Act," or the BOLIVAR Act — prohibits the head of an executive agency from entering into a contract for the procurement of goods or services with any company, including foreign companies, that has business operations with the Maduro regime. Waltz previously secured a similar provision for the Defense Department.

TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP

'I DON'T RECALL ANY OF THIS' — "Exclusive: Proud Boys leader was 'prolific' informer for law enforcement," by Reuters Aram Roston: "Enrique Tarrio, the leader of the Proud Boys extremist group, has a past as an informer for federal and local law enforcement, repeatedly working undercover for investigators after he was arrested in 2012, according to a former prosecutor and a transcript of a 2014 federal court proceeding obtained by Reuters. In the Miami hearing, a federal prosecutor, a Federal Bureau of Investigation agent and Tarrio's own lawyer described his undercover work and said he had helped authorities prosecute more than a dozen people in various cases involving drugs, gambling and human smuggling. Tarrio, in an interview with Reuters Tuesday, denied working undercover or cooperating in cases against others. 'I don't know any of this,' he said, when asked about the transcript. 'I don't recall any of this.'"

— "Melania Trump hires staff and establishes post-White House office," by CNN's Kate Bennett

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

PROBE — "FDLE to investigate Osceola deputy who body slammed Liberty High student," by Cristobal Reyes and Jeff Weiner: "The Florida Department of Law Enforcement is going to investigate the incident in which an Osceola County deputy sheriff was videotaped body-slamming a student at Liberty High School to the ground, Sheriff Marco López told reporters Wednesday morning. López said Deputy Ethan Fournier would be on paid administrative leave while the investigation is pending. The name of the student, who is Black, has not been released because she is a minor."

ODDS, ENDS, AND FLORIDA MEN

MOVING ON — "'He should not be honored': Thrasher agrees to anti-racism group's call to strike Roberts, Eppes," by Tallahassee Democrat's Byron Dobson: "Francis W. Eppes' name will no longer be affiliated with the building housing the College of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Florida State University, FSU President John Thrasher said Tuesday. And the university again will seek approval from the Florida Legislature to remove former Florida Supreme Court Chief Justice B.K. Roberts's name from the main academic building at the College of Law. Thrasher on Tuesday responded to several recommendations forwarded to him in December by the 30-member President's Task Force on Anti-Racism, Equity and Inclusion."

BIRTHDAYS: Reginald Darby, vice president of programs at Millennial Action Project

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