| | | | | |  | | By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver | Presented by |  | | PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Money will not publish on Monday, Jan. 18. We'll be back on our normal schedule on Tuesday, Jan. 19. Editor's Note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services' morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 6 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. | | | Frustration with corporate America grows — We wrote Thursday about Wall Street and corporate America more broadly backing away from taking any position on whether President Trump should be convicted in the Senate right now or after the inauguration. We got tons of response from people both inside big companies and outside calling this a major failure and making the case that CEOs and business groups should simply make a firm stand that Trumpism must be directly crushed. Economist Andrew Busch : "I find it incredibly disappointing that leaders in finance only want to shut their eyes, turn their backs and walk away from what has happened … This is not what leaders do. They engage, they listen and they seek the truth to help those in need. … "Writing letters is nice and I do like that many have shut down their donations to politicians. It's a positive step, to be sure, but they need to stay active." And one banker inside one of the most powerful firms on the Street emailed : "The primary beneficiaries of the rule of law – those who arguably earn more and live better lifestyles – don't want to be bothered to stand up publicly for the rule of law? … "What would their reaction be if a mob, whipped into a frenzy over months and years by a demagogue, attacked a corporate headquarters … rather than a government building next time? Am guessing it wouldn't be along the lines of 'move on.'" Biden goes big (and detailed) on vaccines and stimulus — As expected, President-elect Biden's team put out a highly detailed memo and fact sheet on their plan for a nearly $2 trillion package to speed and streamline vaccine distribution, provide aid to state and local governments, boost jobless benefits, fight child poverty, add $1,400 more in direct checks (to get to $2,000) and aid minority owned and other small business crushed especially hard by Covid-19. This package will not be enacted in its entirety. Conservatives will have significant issues with elements of the plan. But some significant version of it is likely to become law. And a substantial (though hopefully brief) debate over the details will be a wonky tonic for so many of us desperate for meaty arguments over policies critical to the repair of a staggered nation. Welcome back to normal. Maybe? GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — MM is off Monday in honor of the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday. See you back here Tuesday, one day before the official end of Trump's presidency. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver. | | A message from Independent Community Bankers of America: Community bankers welcome the 117th Congress: The new Congress is closely divided at a time of historic challenge and opportunity, but it need not be gridlocked. Accounting for more than 3.5 million Paycheck Protection Program loans, community banks have been financial first responders amid the coronavirus pandemic. ICBA offers a bipartisan legislative agenda with common-sense reforms to continue moving our nation forward. Learn more | | | | | | BIDEN'S ECONOMIC DILEMMA VS. OBAMA'S — Via POLITICO Nightly: "Twelve years ago, when Barack Obama was inaugurated as president, the country was shedding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month. Just four months earlier Lehman Brothers had collapsed. Other major financial institutions were on the brink of failure. Housing prices had plummeted nationwide for the first time in decades, and millions of homeowners were underwater on their mortgages. "On Wednesday Biden will inherit another collapsing economy: one that is also bleeding jobs. But this time is different, Ben White told Renu today. The country's economic woes during the past year stem from an outside menace, not an existential threat to the foundation of finance like the one Obama faced in 2008. "Watch to see if Ben can hash out the differences between the two economic crises in three minutes or less." SPOILER ALERT — I won this round. And I didn't cheat! Though I threatened to do so. I even finished fairly early so Renu had to ask me another question. HUGE ECON DATA DUMP TODAY — Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson: "Today brings a huge wall of data, which probably will just reinforce what we already know about the state of the economy at the turn of the year. "We're expecting to see yet more solid growth in manufacturing output and upbeat industrial sentiment, but the core retail sales numbers will look anemic. … The manufacturing rebound is not yet complete, but monthly production is now closing-in on the pre-Covid level … But the data as currently estimated make it clear that simply returning to the pre-Covid level of output is not enough to restore the labor market to its former health" IMPEACHMENT TRIAL COULD CRASH BIDEN AGENDA — Our Burgess Everett and Andrew Desiderio: "Trump's impeachment trial is set to collide directly with … Biden's inauguration. And there may be little anyone can do about it. Absent the consent of all 100 senators, Trump's trial for 'incitement of insurrection' will start at 1 p.m. on Jan. 20 — just an hour after … Biden is sworn into office … "And only the same consent from the entire Senate will allow the chamber to create two tracks: One to confirm Biden's Cabinet and pass his legislative agenda, and another for Trump's impeachment trial. … Given that many Republicans oppose impeachment or think it's not even constitutional once Trump has left office, it could be tough to get the cooperation Biden needs in order to handle a trial alongside Cabinet confirmations and begin work on a new coronavirus stimulus bill" SPEAKING OF THE INAUGURATION — Our Tyler Pager and Olivia Beavers scooped: "A rehearsal for … Biden's inauguration scheduled for Sunday has been postponed because of security concerns, according to two people with knowledge of the decision. "Top lawmakers and Homeland Security officials have been alarmed about the rising threats around the inauguration, and the FBI warned this weekend of armed protests in all 50 states. The rehearsal is now planned for Monday, the people said." | | | | A NEW YEAR, A NEW CONGRESS, A NEW HUDDLE: It was an ugly and heartbreaking week inside the Capitol, particularly for all of those who work on the Hill. How are lawmakers planning to move forward? How will security change? How will a new Senate majority impact the legislative agenda? With so much at stake, our new Huddle author Olivia Beavers brings you the most important news and critical insight from Capitol Hill with help from POLITICO's deeply sourced Congress team. Subscribe to Huddle, the essential guide to understanding Congress. It has never been more important. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | TRUMP ADMIN MOVES LATE ON FOSSIL FUEL AND OTHER LOANS — Our Lorraine Woellert, Victoria Guida: "The Trump administration … said big banks can't deny loans to entire industries including fossil fuel companies and private prisons, ignoring criticism from lenders, investors, consumer groups, Democrats and some conservatives. "The rule, issued by acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks on his last day in office, was finalized at lightning speed as the Trump administration winds down, and its critics widely expect the Biden administration or congressional Democrats to render it void." BANKS AND INSURERS TO GO BIG ON CLIMATE CHANGE — Our Zachary Warmbrodt: "Some of the country's biggest banking and insurance trade groups are poised to pledge trillions of dollars in financing to fight climate change in a move that could give them greater clout in the debate as Democrats step up scrutiny of Wall Street's role in global warming. "The organizations described their 'clear mandate' on climate finance in an unreleased and yet-to-be finalized report that they've been assembling since … Biden secured the presidency. The document, obtained by POLITICO, endorses the goals of the Paris climate agreement, more standardized disclosure of climate risks and the establishment of robust pricing of carbon through federally regulated markets." | | | |   | | | | | | LATE DROP IN BIG TECH STOCKS PULLS INDEXES LOWER — AP's Stan Choe, Damian J. Troise and Alex Veiga: "Wall Street capped a day of listless trading Thursday with a late-afternoon pullback led by technology companies that left the major stock indexes in the red. The S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent. "The benchmark index, which had been up by 0.4 percent, was weighed down by losses in Apple, Microsoft and other huge tech companies even though most of the stocks in the index rose. Those losses outweighed gains in banks, industrials and other sectors." CHINESE INVESTORS POUR BILLIONS INTO STOCKS ON U.S. BLACKLIST — WSJ's Chong Koh Ping and Joanne Chiu: "Investors from mainland China have spent billions of dollars buying beaten-down shares in Hong Kong-listed companies subject to a U.S. government blacklist. "Buyers using a trading link known as Stock Connect have bought the equivalent of a net $15.8 billion in Hong Kong shares in the first nine trading days of this year, according to Wind, with a heavy concentration on stocks targeted by the U.S." | | A message from the Independent Community Bankers of America: Community bankers and ICBA offer a bipartisan agenda: Community bankers welcome the 117th Congress at a time of historic challenge and opportunity. While the new Congress is closely divided, it need not be gridlocked. Employing more than 700,000 Americans across nearly 50,000 locations with a presence in every congressional district, community banks have a track record of working with both parties to craft pragmatic solutions grounded in consensus. ICBA's bipartisan legislative agenda for the 117th Congress offers common-sense policy reforms that will continue our economic recovery in urban, suburban, and rural communities nationwide. Learn more | | | | | | BIDEN PANDEMIC STIMULUS PLAN TO PUMP $1.9T INTO ECONOMY — Reuters: "President-elect Joe Biden will unveil a stimulus proposal on Thursday designed to jump-start the economy during the coronavirus pandemic and help minority communities with around $1.9 trillion in aid. The stimulus package has a price tag of around $1.9 trillion, the New York Times reported, and includes a commitment for $1,400 stimulus checks, according to a source familiar with the proposal." And Wall Street's a fan — Reuters' David Randall: "A proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief stimulus package from President-elect Joe Biden may prove a double-edged sword for investors, sustaining optimism for further economic revival while raising worries over how the United States will pay for it all. "The stimulus package, reported by the New York Times to total $1.9 trillion, is expected to be formally announced late on Thursday. It has been widely anticipated by Wall Street and has helped lift the broad S&P 500 index nearly 3 percent in the week since Democratic challengers won both of Georgia's U.S. Senate seats, giving Democrats full control of Congress." BANKS EXPECTING A MESSY EARNINGS QUARTER — WSJ's Orla McCaffrey: "2020 was a whiplash kind of year for U.S. banks. When the firms start reporting fourth-quarter earnings this week, investors will want to know if they should expect another. The spring and summer of 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic first started to ravage the U.S. economy, looked bad for banks. "Profits plunged as they set aside money for bad loans. So did their stock prices. But by the fall, things had improved. Strong mortgage demand, healthy trading revenue and an economy kept afloat by generous government stimulus helped insulate the banks from a worst-case scenario." A YEAR AFTER COVID BEGAN, CHINA'S ECONOMY IS BEATING THE WORLD — Bloomberg's Tom Hancock and Enda Curran: "China's economic ascent is accelerating barely a year after its first coronavirus lockdowns, as its success in controlling Covid-19 allows it to boost its share of global trade and investment. "The world's second-largest economy is set on Monday to report gross domestic product increased 2.1 percent in 2020, the only major economy to have avoided a contraction, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists." | | | | KEEP UP WITH THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WITH TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: It was a dark week in American history, and a new administration will have to pick up the pieces. Transition Playbook brings you inside the last days of this crucial transfer of power, tracking the latest from President-elect Biden and his growing administration. Written for political insiders, this scoop-filled newsletter breaks big news and analyzes the appointments, people, and the emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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