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The best broker in Asia www.instaforex.com Daily analysts mail subscription Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 15, 2021 2021-01-15 EUR/JPY failed to hold above key-support at 125.97 indicating that red wave iii completed early at 127.48 and red wave iv towards 125.72 is now in motion. Once the correction is complete a new impulsive rally higher to 129.06 remains expected in red wave v. That said, we need to be aware of the alternate count that only sees the rally to 127.48 as red sub-wave i/ and a much larger wave pattern is unfolding. Under this scenario support at 125.72 should be broken and so should support at 125.14. If a break below this support is seen, then the alternate count described above, will become the preferred count. R3: 127.48 R2: 126.98 R1: 126.54 Pivot: 125.97 S1: 125.70 S2: 125.36 S3: 125.14 Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 126.25 and we will close our long position here at 125.97 for a 28 pips loss. We will re-buy EUR at 125.75. EUR/USD: plan for the European session on January 15. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Powell calmed the markets, while the dollar remained in a horizontal channel against the euro 2021-01-15 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: Apart from yesterday's signal to buy the euro, which I analyzed in detail in my forecast, nothing else was interesting. I focused on the 1.2138 level and recommended making decisions from it when the pair drops to this range. The 5-minute chart shows that when the 1.2138 level was initially tested, the bulls coped with the task and did not let the pair fall below this range, the second false breakout became an excellent signal to enter long positions. The movement was around 30 points. The pair returned to support at 1.2138 during the US session, afterwards the quote fell below it. However, I never got a signal to sell the euro. The first support level has changed and today euro buyers need to think of a way to protect the 1.2144 area in the morning, from which the whole movement began yesterday. It is best to open longs from it if a false breakout is created (similar to the entry point that I analyzed above), which can appear after the eurozone report is released. If the bears continue to pull down the euro, and it is not active around the 1.2144 level, I recommend not to rush to buy, but to wait until the low at 1.2113 has been updated, which surfaced yesterday afternoon. Forming a false breakout there creates a good entry point into longs. It is best to buy EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from the low of 1.2042, counting on an upward correction of 20-30 points within the day. An equally important task for the bulls is to regain control over the 1.2179 level, which can stop the downward trend and result in creating an upward correction for the pair. Being able to surpass and test the 1.2179 level from top to bottom will lead to creating a signal to open new longs in order for EUR/USD to rise to the resistance area of 1.2220. Buyers will still aim for a high of 1.2281, where I recommend taking profits. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: Euro sellers will focus on being able to settle below support at 1.2144. A breakout and a test of this level from the bottom up will create a new signal to open short positions and open a direct road to yesterday's low of 1.2113, where I recommend taking profits. Succeeding targets are 1.2080 and 1.2042, but such an active fall will only be possible if we receive very weak reports on the eurozone's foreign trade balance and inflation in Italy and Spain. An equally important task for the bears is to protect resistance at 1.2179. If EUR/USD recovers, forming a false breakout there creates a signal to open shorts in order to sustain the downward trend. If sellers are not active after resistance at 1.2179 has been tested, then it is best to refuse to sell, since buyers may try to regain control of the market. In this case, you can take a closer look at shorts only when resistance has been updated at 1.2220, or sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from the high of 1.2281, counting on a downward correction of 20-30 points within the day. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for January 5 recorded an increase in both long and short positions. Buyers of risky assets continue to believe in a bullish trend despite the euro's decline earlier this year, which will make it possible for new major players to enter the market. News on the ongoing vaccinations against the first strain of coronavirus in Europe will also support euro buyers. Pressure on the euro will come from isolation measures and quarantines in several European countries. Thus, long non-commercial positions rose from 222,443 to 224,832, while short non-commercial positions jumped from 78,541 to 81,841. Due to the larger increase in short positions, the total non-commercial net position decreased from 143,902 to 142,991 weeks earlier. The insignificant change in the delta at the beginning of the year is unlikely to indicate a change in the tactics of euro buyers, who count on bringing back the single currency's growth after the abolition of quarantine measures in the EU countries. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates some uncertainty with the pair's succeeding direction. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case the euro falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2125 area. A breakout of the upper border around 1.2179 will lead to forming a new wave of EUR/USD growth. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. GBP/USD: plan for the European session on January 15. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pound is marking time, but buyers still thinking of surpassing the 37th figure 2021-01-15 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Yesterday there was not a single normal signal to enter the market. After the 1.3649 level turned out to be vague, the pair did not test any of the other areas. The only emphasis could be placed on the 1.3701 resistance update that occurred after Jerome Powell's speech, but it was difficult to come up with something there, since the test took place at the end of the US session, and the prospects for moving even further were very small. This morning the entire focus will be on fundamental data on the UK economy. The report on GDP and changes in industrial production may weigh on the British pound. But if the indicators turn out to be better than economists' forecasts, one can count on surpassing the annual highs, which is where trade is being conducted now. The bulls hope to settle above this year's high at 1.3701, which could result in removing a number of stop orders. This scenario will push the pound to a larger upward trend in the area of 1.3750 and 1.3803, where I recommend taking profit. If there are no active purchases after updating the high of 1.3701, it is better not to rush with long positions. A more optimal scenario would be a downward correction of GBP/USD to the support area of 1.3661, where a false breakout creates a signal to enter the market. If bulls are not active, I recommend postponing long positions until a larger support at 1.3624, which appeared yesterday morning, has been updated. You can buy the pound from this level immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 30-40 points within the day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The pressure on the British pound will depend on fundamental reports, and how active sellers are at this year's highs. The bears will try to prevent GBP/USD from rising above the resistance of 1.3701, and forming a false breakout there in the first half of the day will be a signal to open short positions, counting on a downward correction to the area of intermediate support at 1.3661, where the moving averages play on the side of the pound buyers. Sellers have the important task of being able to settle below this range, testing it from the bottom up creates a convenient entry point for short positions, which will quickly pull down GBP/USD to a low of 1.3624, where I recommend taking profits. If bears ignore resistance at 1.3701, then it is best to postpone short positions until highs are renewed in the 1.3750 area, or to sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the resistance at 1.3803, counting on a downward correction of 30-40 points within the day. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for January 5 recorded a slight decline in interest in the British pound, but this does not affect the overall picture. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 37,550 to 35,526. At the same time, short non-commercial positions remained practically unchanged and only increased from 31,518 to 31,861. As a result, the non-commercial net position, although it decreased, remained positive and reached 3,665 against 6,032 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders continue to bet on the strengthening of the pound, even in the face of the new Covid-19 strain, for which there is no vaccine yet. The demand for the pound is limited by quarantine measures in the UK, which will sooner or later be canceled after the infection stabilizes. Additional stimulus from the Bank of England, which economists will soon talk about, may also somewhat smooth out the upward trend in the pound. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out just above the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to take control of the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.3705 area will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.3625. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for January 15, 2021 2021-01-15 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has made a new swing low under the long term trend line support. The level of 1.2111 is the new low, so if this level is clearly violated, then the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2088 and 1.2060. The zone between the levels of 1.2154 - 1.2177 will now act as the supply zone. The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for Euro. The larger time frame trend remains up. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2446 WR2 - 1.2395 WR1 - 1.2293 Weekly Pivot - 1.2204 WS1 - 1.2134 WS2 - 1.2082 WS3 - 1.1981 Trading Recommendations: Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. The market made the Falling Wedge trend reversal pattern around the levels of 1.2200 - 1.2300 and now the corrective cycle might have started. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for January 15, 2021 2021-01-15 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair had tested the recent swing high located at the level of 1.3698, but no breakout higher occurred so far. The market has made a pull back towards the technical support seen at the level of 1.3624 and since then the Cable keeps consolidate in a narrow trading zone between the levels of 1.3624 - 1.3708. In a case of a deeper pull-back, the next technical support is seen at the level of 1.3533. The market conditions are overbought, but the weekly time frame trend remains up. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.3811 WR2 - 1.3757 WR1 - 1.3642 Weekly Pivot - 1.3588 WS1 - 1.3474 WS2 - 1.3415 WS3 - 1.3307 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and the trigger for this trend was the breakout above the level or 1.3518 on the weekly time frame chart. The recent top was made at the level of 1.3702. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. Indicator analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair on January 15, 2021 2021-01-15 Yesterday, while moving down, the pair broke off from the 8 average EMA 1.3611 (blue thin line) and began to move up, testing the upper fractal1.3702 (red dotted line). As per the economic calendar, news is expected at 13.30 UTC (dollar). Today, the price may start moving down. Trend analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market from the level of 1.3683 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to start moving down with the target of 1.3596 - 13 average EMA (yellow thin line). When this line is reached, the price may continue to move down with the target of 1.3553 - 21 average EMA (black thin line). Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - down Fibonacci levels - down Volumes - down Candlestick analysis - down Trend analysis - up Bollinger bands - up Weekly chart - down General conclusion: Today, the price from the level of 1.3683 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to start moving down with the target of 1.3596 - 13 average EMA (yellow thin line). When this line is reached, the price may continue to move down with the target of 1.3553 - 21 average EMA (black thin line). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.3683 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price will try to continue moving down with the target of 1.3625 - 8 average EMA (blue thin line). Upon reaching this line, it is possible to work up to the target of 1.3708 - the upper fractal (red dashed line). Trading plan for EUR/USD on January 15 2021-01-15 COVID-19 is not retreating. Until now, both the US and global incidences are at record highs. Aside from that, the pace of vaccination has slowed. Therefore, Germany has decided to tighten its quarantine measures. EUR/USD: Open long positions from 1.2180. As for shorts, there is no good level for it yet. GBP/USD. January 15. COT report. The UK is closing its borders due to the Brazilian strain of coronavirus. 2021-01-15 GBP/USD – 1H. According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound from the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3625), a reversal in favor of the British currency and an increase to the level of 1.3698. However, this level was followed by a rebound with a reversal in favor of the US currency. Traders can now expect a return to the level of 1.3625. Meanwhile, in the UK, the third wave of coronavirus is slowly waning, although the number of new cases is still very high. In recent days - under 50 thousand new cases every day. At the same time, the country's authorities began to sound the alarm about a new Brazilian strain of coronavirus, which has already begun to spread across the planet in the same way as the British strain did before. Last night, Britain officially closed air services to South America, as well as to Portugal, to prevent the spread of the Brazilian COVID. Also yesterday, the World Health Organization (WHO) held an emergency meeting, which was dedicated to new strains of coronavirus. WHO officials warned earlier that there could be many more new mutations in the world. The reason is that the virus is spreading too fast all over the planet. It also became known that humanity is unlikely to achieve collective immunity in 2021. Many health experts report that although several COVID vaccines have been developed recently, it will take a very long time to vaccinate 7 billion people, or at least most of the world's population. There is also an acute issue of the cost of the vaccine since not all segments of the population and countries can afford to buy a vaccine. GBP/USD – 4H. On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair made a return to the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3701) after rebounding from it earlier. A new rebound of quotes from this level will again work in favor of the US currency and some fall in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3481). But it is more likely that the pair's quotes will close above the level of 127.2%, which will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 161.8% (1.3977). GBP/USD - Daily. On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). Only the closing of the pair below the level of 100.0% will work in favor of a further fall in quotes. GBP/USD - Weekly. On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed above the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: There were no important economic reports in the UK on Thursday. In America, only a report on applications for unemployment benefits was released, which theoretically could support the Briton. News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom: UK - change in GDP (07:00 GMT). UK - change in industrial production (07:00 GMT). US - retail trade volume change (13:30 GMT). US - change in industrial production (14:15 GMT). USA - consumer sentiment Index from the University of Michigan (15"00 GMT). On January 15, the UK has already released reports on GDP (slightly better than expected) and industrial production (worse than expected). Traders did not pay attention to this data. COT( Commitments of Traders) report: The latest COT report from January 5 showed the same minimal activity of major players as in the case of the euro currency. During the New Year's week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 1,028 long contracts and 1,111 short contracts. That is, almost an equal number. Thus, I cannot conclude that during the reporting week, the mood of speculators became more "bullish" or more "bearish". Judging by the total number of open contracts in this category, the mood remains more "bullish". However, on December 1, the situation was exactly the opposite, and the pound sterling was growing even then. In general, there are no strong changes in the mood of major players. GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders: It is recommended to buy the British dollar now when the quotes rebound from the level of 100.0% (1.3625) on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3698 and 1.3744. Or in the case of a close above the level of 1.3698 with targets of 1.3744 and 1.3820. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling at the close of quotes under the level of 1.3625 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3522. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD. January 15. COT report. The speeches of Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell this week had no effect 2021-01-15 EUR/USD – 1H. The EUR/USD pair performed a new fall on January 14, followed by a reversal in favor of the EU currency and new growth. All this occurred within the corrective levels of 76.4% and 100.0%. At the moment, the pair's quotes are again in the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.2131). A rebound of the pair's rate from this level will again work in favor of the European currency, and a close below it will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 127.2% (1.2072). The most high-profile event of the day was the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. However, judging by the fact that the activity of traders yesterday was not excessive and there were no sharp and strong movements in the evening, we can conclude that Powell said a few really important things. His speech was also not announced as global, it was just an interview with a professor at Princeton University. And in this interview, Powell noted that soft monetary policy will continue until the results are visible and the goals are achieved. The Fed chairman also said that an increase in interest rates will not happen very soon, and the economy is still too far from pre-crisis levels. That's all Powell said about monetary policy. Not surprisingly, traders did not react to this information, which they already knew and which was obvious. There is no new news about the impeachment of Donald Trump. EUR / USD – 4H. On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes closed under the upward trend line. Thus, the decline in quotes continues in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). The pair's rebound from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.2353). The emerging bullish divergence can also work in favor of the beginning of the pair's growth. EUR/USD – Daily. On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair began the process of returning to the corrective level of 323.6% (1.2079). The pair's rebound from this level will work in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 423.6% (1.2496). Closing below it will increase the chances of a further drop in quotes to the lower border of the upward trend corridor. EUR/USD – Weekly. On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On January 14, the US released a report on applications for unemployment benefits, which turned out to be significantly worse than traders' expectations. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: US - retail trade volume change (13:30 GMT). US - change in industrial production (14:15 GMT). US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (15:00 GMT). On January 15, reports on retail trade and industrial production will be released in America. If the changes are significant, then the reaction of traders to them is not excluded. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: The activity of major players in the New Year's week was very weak. The "Non-commercial" category of traders, according to the latest COT report of January 5, opened 2,072 long contracts and 3,078 short contracts. That is, approximately the same amount. The same applies to the "Commercial" category of traders and the total number of open long and short contracts. First, these figures are very low, and second, without a serious bias in any direction. Simply put, speculators in the New Year rested and celebrated more than they made transactions in the foreign exchange market. Thus, there are no special changes following the results of the next week. The mood of traders remains "bullish". A couple of months ago, the beginnings of a new downward trend appeared, however, the weakness of the dollar did not allow this option to be realized. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations to traders: On Thursday, I recommend buying the euro currency with targets of 1.2182 and 1.2214 on the hourly chart, if the rebound from the level of 100.0% (1.2131) is made. New sales of the pair can be opened with a target of 1.2072 at the repeated closing of quotes under the level of 100.0% (1.2131) on the hourly chart. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Wave analysis of GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY for January 15 2021-01-15 GBP/USD Analysis: As a result of a prolonged uptrend, the pound sterling reached the lower limit of a powerful potential reversal zone. The last unfinished section of the trend started on December 21. In its structure, the first parts (A-B) are formed, the final part (C) is developing. Before edging higher, the price needs to enter the correctional phase. Forecast: Today the pair is expected to complete the pullback that has been lasting for two days. It is most likely a sideways movement between the nearest oncoming zones. By the end of the day, the pair may try to break through the resistance zone. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 1.3700/1.3730 Support: - 1.3620/1.3590 Recommendations: To open short deals on the pound sterling is risky today. It is recommended to refrain from entering the market during the correction and look for buy signals. USD/JPY Analysis: The wave, which is relevant for the short-term scale of the Japanese yen chart, began on November 9 last year. Since the middle of last month, a counter correction has been developing. Its structure looks complete. The bearish section, which started on January 11, has a reversal potential. It can be the beginning of a new wave. Analysis: In the current day, the pair is expected to continue the sideways movement that began the day before yesterday. After the pressure on the support zone, you can expect a reversal and rise to the resistance zone. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 104.10/104.40 Support: - 103.50/103.20 Recommendations: Trading the yen today is possible only within the sessions, with a reduced lot. Ir is recommended to open long deals on the pair. EUR/JPY Analysis: The trajectory of the short-term trend of the euro-yen pair is set by the rising wave from May 7 last year. The final part (C) is formed in the wave structure. Within its framework, a complex horizontal correction has been developing in the last six weeks. The price is at the lower edge of a strong potential reversal zone. Forecast: Today, a downward movement is expected, up to the full completion of the current wave. At the end of the day, you can wait for the beginning of a new rise. If the pair rises, a short-term breakthrough of the lower support border is possible. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 126.20/126.50 Support: - 125.50/125.20 Recommendations: Today it is recommended to open short deals in the cross-market with s smaller lot within the sessions. It is necessary to take into account the limited potential of the downward movement. There have been no signals for long deals yet. Explanation: In simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The background of the arrows demonstrates the formed structure; the dotted ones show the expected movements. Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the instrument's movements in time! Forex forecast 01/15/2021 on EUR/GBP, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, Gold and USDX from Sebastian Seliga 2021-01-15 Let's take a look at the technical picture of EUR/GBP, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, Gold and USDX at the daily time frame chart before the key economic data from the US are released. Trading recommendations for starters on GBP/USD and EUR/USD for January 15, 2021 2021-01-15 The US dollar continued to strengthen against its competitors yesterday. Perhaps, the impulse for action is the minutes of the European Central Bank's December meeting, where members of the governing council agreed that the asset purchase program should be expanded, but without naming the exact volumes. In terms of statistics, weekly data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits was published during the start of the US trading session. Their volume was predicted to decline, but as a result, a quite impressive growth was recorded. Volume of initial applications rose by 181 thousand – from 784 thousand to 965 thousand. Volume of repeated applications rose by 199 thousand – from 5,072 thousand to 5,271 thousand. The market did not react immediately, but the volume of dollar positions began to actively decline after an hour the above-mentioned statistics were published. What happened on the trading charts? The EUR/USD pair declined around 9:00 Universal time, locally breaking through the pivot point of 1.2130. However, the downward movement slowed down after the publication of negative statistics in the US labor market and so, the quote returned to the area of 1.2130/1.2175 again. The total volume of fluctuation was slightly more than 60 points. The GBP/USD pair returned to the area of the local high of the mid-term upward trend of 1.3690/1.3705, where a natural decline in the volume of long positions (buy positions) was observed. This led to a stagnation-pull back. The local upward trend coincides with the time of release of negative statistics in the US. The total volume of fluctuation was slightly above 90 points. Trading recommendations on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for January 15, 2021 A lot of UK statistics has already been published today. The monthly GDP data for November slowed down by -2.6%, against the worse forecast of -5.7%. At the same time, the volume of industrial production reflects a slowdown in the decline – from -5.8% to -4.7%, with a forecast of -4.2%. However, the pound hardly reacted during the time of publication of the statistics. In the afternoon, the publication of data on US retail sales can be expected, where a neutral level of 0% is forecast for December. For example, November's volume of retail sales fell by -1.1%, and so, the neutral level can be regarded as a positive factor. According to the trading chart of EUR/USD, price fluctuations within the lower limit of the sideways range of 1.2130/1.2175 is seen. Based on the recent breakdown of the level of 1.2130, the downward interest is still relevant in the market. It is advised to carefully monitor the behavior of the price within the range of 1.2110/1.2130, since holding the quote at these levels can open the way to the levels of 1.2070 - 1.2000. As for the trading chart of GBP/USD, it can be seen that there is a pullback from the resistance area of 1.3690/1.3705. In case of a regular repetition associated with this area, a decline to at least 1.3615 can be expected. Now, if the price is held below the level of 1.3600, further decline can continue to the level of 1.3500. An alternative scenario of market development will be considered if the price is held above the level of 1.3710 in a four-hour time frame, which will lead to further formation of a mid-term trend. EUR/USD: Biden shares plans of introducing new economic stimulus for the US. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell has refuted claims of prematurely curtailing the bond purchase program. Germany tightens quarantine measures. 2021-01-15 Markets were mixed yesterday over consequential statements from the United States. In particular, Powell's speech that refutes the rumors of prematurely curtailing the bond purchase program has pacified investors, but Joe Biden's announcement regarding a new $ 1.9 trillion-worth of economic stimulus has pulled demand for the dollar down. At the same time, things are not very good in the EU. Germany, because of the persistent rise of COVID-19 cases in the country, has decided to tighten its quarantine measures. Yesterday, Jerome Powell nipped talks of prematurely curtailing the Fed's massive bond buying program. He said that "now is not the time" for such speculation, and that they "need to be very careful when discussing the asset purchase program." Powell added that cutting off stimulus programs too early would deliver more negative impact for the economy than a later decision. These statements were a response to the call of some Fed officials over curtailing stimulus programs that were introduced in 2013. According to them, a strong economic recovery after the pandemic could lead to a reduction in bond purchases at the end of this year. And in addition, there is an upcoming stimulus package proposed by the Democrats, which will slightly relieve the burden on the Federal Reserve. But during his speech, Powell firmly said that the economy was still far from its goals. He also mentioned what happened seven years ago, when the markets were shaken by the Fed's decision and the yield on Treasury bonds soared. According to him, such rash decisions will certainly not be used in the future. Powell also added that as the economy recovers, Fed officials need to be more careful in their words. In any case, following its meeting last month, the Fed decided to continue keeping the monthly volume of bond purchases at $ 120 billion. Now, for the new stimulus plan from President-elect Joe Biden, the government will prepare an amount of $ 1.9 trillion, and it will go to the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, as well as to support the US economy. The plan includes a wave of new spending, that is, a $ 2,000 increase in direct payments to households, an increase in unemployment benefits and an increase in financial support for state and local governments. A significant chunk of money will also go towards expanding vaccination and coronavirus testing programs, and there is also a proposal to raise the minimum wage. Many became ecstatic on this news, as they believe that it is simply necessary amid the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there are also those who see that it will only deliver negative impact on the US dollar, as such massive injection of money may cause the economy to undergo a crisis the same as that of 2008-2009. In any case, the latest data on the US labor suggests that more decisive action is needed. The latest report from the US Department of Labor said initial jobless claims have jumped by 181,000, thereby reaching a total of 965,000. This growth was the fastest observed since the end of March 2020, when the number of jobless claims jumped by 3.56 million at once. The Economists expected the figure to rise by only 8,000 and total by 795,000. Meanwhile, today, data on US retail sales will be published. It is expected to show a slight contraction for the data for December, as the surge in coronavirus last month has brought new restrictions and reduced economic activity. Economists forecast that the report will point to a slight decline in retail sales compared to November, despite the fact that e-commerce, at that time, was booming. But for the subsequent reports, the figures are expected to improve gradually, mainly due to the start of mass vaccinations. The situation is also quite bad in the EU. Yesterday, because of the persistent rise of COVID-19 infections in the country, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has decided to tighten quarantine restrictions. To add to that, the new strain of coronavirus has started to spread in the EU, so as a result, Merkel has scheduled a meeting with regional leaders to discuss additional restrictions. The new restrictions could include a curfew, complete closures of all schools and the cancellation of public transportation. This issue will be discussed at the meeting on January 20. Until that moment, the European currency will clearly remain under pressure against the US dollar. But at the moment, the technical picture of EUR/USD has not changed much. Trading continues in a sideways channel, and the attempts of euro bears on bringing the quote below monthly lows was unsuccessful. Now, they have to push the euro below 1.2140 in order to see a sharp drop towards 1.2110, 1.2080 and 1.2040. But if the bulls manage to raise the quote to 1.2180, EUR/USD could climb towards 1.2220 and 1.2280. Make money Deposit funds Author's today's articles: Torben Melsted Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets. Maxim Magdalinin In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis.  Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Sergey Belyaev Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Mihail Makarov - Grigory Sokolov Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Vyacheslav Ognev Vyacheslav was born on August 24, 1971. In 1993, he graduated from Urals State University of Economics in the Russian city of Ekaterinburg holding a degree in Commerce and Economics of Trade. In 2007, he started concentrating on the Russian stock market, trading stocks on the RTS Stock Exchange and futures contracts on FORTS. Since 2008 he has been engaged in analyzing Forex market and trading currencies. He is an author of a simplified wave analysis method. He has also developed a trading strategy. At present, Vyacheslav is a co-author of training materials on two web portals dedicated to Forex trading education. Interests: fitness, F1 "Experience is the best of schoolmasters, only the school fees are heavy." - Thomas Carlyle Vladislav Tukhmenev Vladislav graduated from Moscow State University of Technologiy and Management. He entered the forex market in early 2008. Vladislav is a professional trader, analyst, and manager. He applies a whole gamut of analysis – technical, graphical, mathematical, fundamental, and candlestick analysis. Moreover, he forecasts the market movements using his own methods based on the chaos theory. Vladimir took part in development of trading systems devoted to fractal analysis. In his free time, Vladimir blogs about exchange markets. Hobbies: active leisure, sporting shooting, cars, design, and marketing. "I do not dream only of becoming the best in my field. I also dream about those who I will take with me along the way up." Pavel Vlasov No data Subscription's options management Theme's: Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets Author's : A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda Edit data of subscription settings Unsubscribe from the mailing list Sincerely, Analysts Service If you have any questions, you can make a phone call using one of the InstaForex Toll free numbers right now: 1 866 8000 719 0 8000 51 88 99 0 800 898 548 1 800 882 528 001 803 017 910 0 800 500 329 822 140 799 8 800 080 5553 Other countries +7 (499) 7042343, +7 (812) 4580351 E-mail: support@instaforex.com InstaForex Group is an international brand providing online trading services to the clients all over the world. 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