| Technical Analysis of USD/JPY for January 19, 2021 2021-01-19 
Overview : 4-hour chart : The USD/JPY pair has broken resistance at the level of 103.73, which acts as support now. So, the pair has already formed minor support at 103.73. The strong support is seen at the level of 103.73 because it represents the weekly pivot. The RSI and the moving average (100) are still pointing to the upside. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 103.73. Buy above the minor support of 103.73 with a target at 104.41 (high price). The USD/JPY pair will continue to rise from the level of 104.41. Also, the level of 104.41 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the USD/JPY pair to climb from 104.41 to 104.80 today. The support is found at the level of 103.52, which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement level in the H4 time frame. On the other hand, if the pair closes below the minor support (103.52), the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 102.62. Comment: Also, the double bottom is seen at the level of 102.62. If the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: USD is in an uptrend and JPY is in a downtrend. 1-hour chart : The USD/JPY pair continues to move upwards from the level of 104.02. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 103.73, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 103.73, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/JPY pair to trade between 103.73 and 104.80. So, the support stands at 103.73, while daily resistance is found at 104.80. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 103.73. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 103.73 with the first target at the level of 104.41; and continue towards 104.80. However, if the USD/JPY pair fails to break through the resistance level of 103.73 today, the market will decline further to 102.60. 
EUR/USD analysis for January 19, 2021 2021-01-19 Hi, everyone! There is less than one day left till the inauguration of US President-elected Joe Biden. This fact raises the most important questions for both the United States and the whole world such as what America's 46th President will be and what changes to expect in the greatest world power during his presidency. As you know, the global situation largely depends on the foreign policy of the White House. This also applies to geopolitics and economics, which directly affects the global financial markets, including Forex. Another interesting fact is that US president Donald Trump will not attend Biden's inauguration. He intends to leave for his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida. Notably, the inauguration of Joe Biden as President of the United States will take place amid unprecedented security measures. Thousands of National Guard troops will patrol the streets, while the Capitol, White House and large areas around them will be fenced off. There is no even time for accusing Russian hackers of carrying out cyber-raid against the US, targeting the federal government. The main reasons for such serious security measures are the alarming situation with the spread of COVID-19 in the United States, as well as the recent storming of the US Capitol building in Washington by Donald Trump's supporters. In Europe, COVID-19 continues to spread. Britain with its new coronavirus strain records the highest coronavirus case rates. The authorities of the United Kingdom are going to ramp up its mass rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations. According to some reports, the government will begin a trial of round-the-clock injections and add more vaccination sites to increase the pace of delivery. Thus, the British authorities intend to significantly slow the spread of the deadly coronavirus. Today's macroeconomic calendar does not include statistics from the United States. However, it is full of important releases from Europe, for example, the data on ZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany and the Eurozone. Daily  Despite yesterday's continued rally of the US currency against the euro, there is another bullish reversal pattern of the candlestick analysis on the daily chart. This is a hammer with a bearish body. Importantly, the price has started to form this pattern at the strong support level of 1.2058 (brown line), where there is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level along the Fibonacci grid stretched between the levels of 1.1601-1.2349. Given the fading bearish divergence of the MACD indicator, we cannot exclude a correction in the quotes or even a resumed upward trend of the euro/dollar pair. Nevertheless, according to the weekly chart, market players are still trying to test the Gravestone Doji candlestick pattern formed two weeks ago. As stated in my previous articles, the uptrend may be resumed only after the price breaks through the strong technical level of 1.2350. Currently, the price is trading under strong pressure from sellers in this area. The bearish scenario will continue in case the price hits yesterday's low of 1.2053 and closes the daily session below this level. In this case, the euro/dollar pair is at risk of plunging into another very important technical zone of 1.2000-1.1975. In addition to the psychological level of 1.2000, there is the 38.2% Fibonacci level in this zone. H4  A correction pattern can be clearly seen on the four-hour chart. After the price touched strong support in the area of 1.2050, a doji candlestick with a small bullish body and equidistant shadows appeared. Then the price started a corrective rally. For now, this growth should be considered as corrective. That is why I have stretched the Fibonacci grid between the levels of 1.2348-1.1601. I believe that in the price zone of 1.2165-1.2178, the price may face strong resistance and then rebound in the opposite direction again. On the chart, you can see the 50-day moving average, the 38.2% Fibonacci level, as well as the highs of January 14, from where the pair fell to 1.1600. Against this background, I think that the best way to make a profit is to sell the euro/dollar pair after the quotes rise to the highlighted price area, of course, if such a rise occurs. Short positions can be considered if reversal candlestick signals appear on this and (or) hourly charts near the level of 1.2150. Taking into account the corrective nature of the pair's current rally, I think it is too late to open long positions and I recommend you refrain from them. For now, anyway. Good luck! Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on January 19, 2021 2021-01-19 Today's article on the pound/dollar currency pair will be devoted mainly to the technical component, and taking into account the recent completion of weekly trading, we will look at the corresponding timeframe. I have repeatedly noted that, in my personal opinion, the weekly chart is the strongest in terms of working out certain technical signals and determining the further direction of the price. Weekly 
Thus, following the results of trading on January 11-15, a very interesting candle with a small bullish body and quite large equidistant shadows appeared on the weekly time interval. Looking at this candle, we can conclude that market participants are currently in thought and can not decide on the further direction of the British currency. In principle, this candle can be considered a reversal, especially considering that it appeared at the very peak of the market after the unsuccessful attempts of the bulls on the pound to overcome a very strong technical level of 1.3700. I would like to emphasize that this week will be extremely important for GBP/USD, and the further direction of the exchange rate may depend on how the trading of these five days ends. For the growth to continue, players on the increase need to pass strong resistance of sellers in the area of 1.3700 and close the week higher. In this case, the "British" can continue to strengthen with the nearest targets in the area of 1.3800-1.3820. To implement a bearish scenario, it is necessary not only to update the previous weekly lows at 1.3450 but also to break through the red line of the Tenkan indicator Ichimoku. The task is not easy, however, when was everything easy and simple? Judging by the weekly chart and the shape of the last candle, it is not possible to make an unambiguous conclusion about the further direction of the price. Both scenarios have approximately equal chances of being implemented. Daily 
The strong technical level of 1.3520 has been mentioned several times before. At yesterday's trading, this mark once again demonstrated its strength and significance for market participants. Having reached the level of 1.3518 on the decline, the pair found strong support and began to recover the losses incurred before. As a result, a candle with a particularly long lower shadow and a small bearish body appeared on the daily chart. Usually, after the appearance of such candles, the quote shows growth, which is observed at the end of this review. It is necessary to note the role that the red line of the Tenkan indicator Ichimoku played as support. Yesterday's trading closed slightly above this line, and today's rise began from it. Since today no macroeconomic reports are expected for the GBP/USD currency pair that can affect the price dynamics of this instrument, I believe that trading on the pair will be influenced by technical factors, market sentiment, and information background. Moving on to the trading recommendations for GBP/USD, it is necessary to take into account that the pair have already made a long way in the north direction, so it is worth opening purchases with small targets in the area of 1.3660. But it is better to look for points for opening long positions on the pound after a minor and short-term corrective pullback to the price zone of 1.3600-1.3580. However, it is far from a fact that such a pullback will take place, the pair shows a positive attitude and is steadily strengthening. Aggressively and riskily, you can try to buy the British currency from current prices, hiding a protective stop-loss order under yesterday's lows of 1.3518, and not everyone can afford it. As for sales, the basis for opening short positions will be bearish candlestick signals under the level of 1.3700. If they appear, we sell GBP/USD with the nearest targets near 1.3600. EUR/USD: plan for the American session on January 19 (analysis of morning deals) 2021-01-19 To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to: In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.2102 and recommended buying euros from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the entry point. Good data on business sentiment in Germany and the eurozone led to a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2102, and the reverse test of this level from top to bottom, which I highlighted on the chart, led to the formation of a simply excellent entry point into long positions to grow EUR/USD in the resistance area of 1.2142, to which we are 10 points short. From the morning entry point, the euro has already risen by more than 30 points. 
Now, buyers of the euro will focus all their attention on the level of 1.2142, as when it is updated, it will be possible to observe some pause in the upward correction, which may lead to a decrease in EUR/USD in the second half of the day. Only a breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.2142, by analogy with the purchase, which I analyzed a little higher, forms an additional signal to open long positions already to update the new maximum of 1.2179, where I recommend fixing the profits. It is also important to pay attention to the level of 1.2142, as there is the upper limit of the descending price channel formed on January 7 of this year. A breakthrough in this area will lead to a change in the trend. In the scenario of a decline in the euro during the US session, it is best to consider buying only after the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2102. I recommend opening long positions immediately for a rebound from the minimum of 1.2064, based on an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to: Sellers of the euro will focus on the return of EUR/USD under the support level of 1.2102, which they missed in the first half of the day. However, before thinking about this level, it is necessary to protect the resistance of 1.2142, which the bulls came close to in the middle of the European session. Only the formation of a false breakout will form a good entry point into short positions, which will lead to a decline and a test of support of 1.2102. It will be possible to talk about the return of control by bears over the market only after a breakout and consolidation below this level, the test of which on the reverse side will quickly dump the euro at a minimum of 1.2064, where I recommend fixing the profits. If after updating the level of 1.2142, we do not see particularly active sales of the euro, then I advise you to take your time and wait for the update of the next local maximum of 1.2179, where you can open short positions immediately for a rebound in the expectation of a downward correction of 20-30 points within the day. 
Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for January 12 recorded a sharp increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones. Buyers of risky assets continue to believe in a bullish trend, especially after such a large decline in the euro earlier this year, which allows new major players to enter the market. In Europe, vaccination against the first strain of coronavirus continues, which leads to the appearance of new euro buyers on the market. The likely approval of another $ 1.9 trillion aid plan for the US economy is likely to further erode the US dollar's position. The risk of extending quarantine measures in February this year, both in Germany and in several other European countries, is a deterrent to the growth of the euro. Thus, long non-commercial positions increased from 224,832 to 228,757, while short non-commercial positions fell from 81,841 to 72,867. Due to the sharp drop in short positions, the total non-commercial net position increased to 155,890 from 143,902 a week earlier. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the resumption of the upward correction for the euro. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands In case of a decline, the average border of the indicator around 1.2095 will provide support. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Gold turns down amid dollar rally 2021-01-19 
According to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), hedge funds and gold investors have significantly reduced their bullish positions, since the strengthening of the US dollar amid rising bond yields continues to hold back gold. 
The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report indicates that FCMs had cut their speculative long positions in gold futures by 36,039, so as a result, it only totaled 131,057 contracts. At the same time, short positions increased by 2,296, hitting 52,823 contracts. "Net longs in gold fell sharply after speculators were frightened by a jump in 10-year bond yields above 1% and a stronger dollar," said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank. Now, the number of long positions is 78,234, which is 36% lower than the previous week's. Accordingly, this significant drop in speculative interest led to a sharp drop in gold prices, to below $ 1,850. Analysts believe this aggressive sell-off will continue in the market, but long-term prospects remain bullish. There are also those who see this situation as positive. According to them, while speculators liquidate their long positions, investment demand for gold has increased. "ETF investors seem to see the lower price as a good buying opportunity," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank. "ETF stocks increased by almost 17 tons on Friday, and almost all of the inflow came from the SPDR Gold Trust, which is mainly used by institutional investors. " Meanwhile, although investors are actively fleeing the gold market, the silver market seems to be holding its ground. A disaggregated report shows that silver futures fell 3,485 contracts to 69,805. At the same time, short positions rose 461 contracts to 27,861. The number of long positions now stands at 41,944 contracts, which is 8.5% below the previous week's. EUR/USD analysis for January 19 2021 - Upside movement as we expected and potential for the upside targets at 1.2170 and 1.2222 2021-01-19 Yellen to urge lawmakers to 'act big', put aside concerns on mounting debt - report Yellen is set to stress that further action is needed to prevent a longer and more painful recession now and long-term scarring of the economy later, arguing that: Neither the President-elect, nor I, propose this relief package without an appreciation for the country's debt burden. But right now, with interest rates at historic lows, the smartest thing we can do is act big. The report also adds that Yellen is to affirm the US' commitment to market-determined exchange rates, making it clear that they are not seeking a weaker dollar for competitive advantage, according to officials familiar with her hearing preparation. Most of the above has already been made known over the past two days, and you can check out more on what to expect from Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that there is the breakout of the supply trendline, which is sign that buyers took control from buyers. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities on the dips with the upside targets at 1,2170 and 1,2222. Additionally, Stochastic oscillator got the fresh bull cross, which is another sign for the upside movement. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz 
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Lean Hogs and Wheat today and on the bottom VIX and Lumber. Key Levels: Resistance: 1,2170 and 1,2222 Support level: 1,2050 Analysis of Gold for January 19,.2021 - Potential reversion to the mean towards $1.863 2021-01-19 Prior -66.5 - Expectations 61.8 vs 59.4 expected
- Prior 55.0
- Eurozone expectations 58.3
- Prior 54.4
The continued jump in the expectations component remains the standout in the report as vaccine optimism and hopes of a stronger economic reopening later in the year is fueling more positive sentiment to start the new year. This reflects the more optimistic investor sentiment as well but we'll see how well this will hold up in light of restrictions set to be prolonged further to April in all likelihood. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that there is strong rejection of the swing low at the price of $1,820, which is good sign for the further upside movement. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities with the upside targets at $1,863 and $1,922. Additionally, Stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone, which is another indication for the potential rally... 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz 
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Lean Hogs and Wheat today and on the bottom VIX and Lumber. Key Levels: Resistance: $1,863 and $1,922. Support level: $1,820
Author's today's articles: Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. Ivan Aleksandrov  Ivan Aleksandrov Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Andrey Shevchenko  Andrey Shevchenko Petar Jacimovic  Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"
Subscription's options management Theme's:
Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets
Author's :
A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
Edit data of subscription settings
Unsubscribe from the mailing list Sincerely,
Analysts Service | If you have any questions, you can make a phone call using one of the
InstaForex Toll free numbers right now:
|  | InstaForex Group is an international brand providing online trading services to the clients all over the world. InstaForex Group members include regulated companies in Europe, Russia and British Virgin Islands. This letter may contain personal information for access to your InstaForex trading account, so for the purpose of safety it is recommended to delete this data from the history. If you have received this letter by mistake, please contact InstaForex Customer Relations Department. |
No comments:
Post a Comment