Wednesday, December 9, 2020

POLITICO Playbook: ‘It’s tight’

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POLITICO Playbook

By Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman

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DRIVING THE DAY

WE'RE GOING TO GET TO COVID relief talks in a few seconds, but we want to take a quick moment to dwell on this: HOUSE DEMOCRATS are going to begin the 117th Congress with a razor-thin majority that could leave the chamber effectively ungovernable.

PRESIDENT-ELECT JOE BIDEN'S DECISION to put Rep. MARCIA FUDGE (D-Ohio) in the Cabinet as HUD secretary gives Speaker NANCY PELOSI a 220-seat majority -- just a five-seat edge over House Republicans, and a two-vote cushion to get bills through the chamber.

THAT'S INCREDIBLY, INCREDIBLY tight. If you are one who believes Covid relief needs to happen in the first quarter of the year, then it's going to need to be a negotiated bill between PELOSI and KEVIN MCCARTHY, the House GOP leader -- among others. MCCARTHY, by the way, is seeing his power grow rapidly after two years during which he was effectively ignored.

220 IS THE SMALLEST MAJORITY since 2001, when Republicans maintained incredible party discipline with a similarly sized majority. In those days, they had TOM DELAY and earmarks to keep things in line -- and they never lost a vote. This included lots of screaming.

THIS IS THE SMALLEST DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY we could find since 1893. There will be special elections to fill FUDGE'S and Rep. CEDRIC RICHMOND'S (D-La.) seats, and then the Dem majority will grow once again. But special elections take time.

WE CAUGHT UP WITH FUDGE on Tuesday night, and asked her about leaving Dems a bit thin, and whether she personally thinks about it, or if she views it as someone else's problem.

"IT'S TIGHT," FUDGE told us, standing feet from the House floor. "Certainly I do think about it because I'm a part of this team, and I support this caucus. … Certainly I'm in a safe district. Whoever would come here would be a part of this team as well so that gives me some comfort. I just have to hope that we can hold together long enough to make sure that something like that would happen if I should leave. Because right now, CEDRIC is gone and so we're down one, his seat will be a safe seat as well. So we're just hopeful that if this works out the way we would like it to -- that it'll be OK."

CONFIDENCE-INSPIRING, HUH?

SO, ONTO COVID RELIEF … ON TUESDAY NIGHT, the administration offered PELOSI and Senate Minority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER a $916 BILLION Covid relief bill. The bill is broadly similar to the bipartisan "908 coalition" package: It includes $160 billion for state and local, $150 billion for direct checks ($600 per person), $320 billion for the Paycheck Protection Program, $30 billion for airlines and $16 billion for vaccine and testing. There are no enhanced unemployment benefits, which is raising the hackles of Democrats, but it extends expiring provisions.

SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL and MCCARTHY were read into MNUCHIN'S offer, and MCCARTHY voiced support for it Tuesday evening. MCCONNELL earlier Tuesday offered to drop state and local and liability -- the big sticking points -- to try to get a deal.

BUT NO DICE. SCHUMER and PELOSI have put all their stock in the bipartisan negotiations, which, at this point, are still chugging along. They have suggested that's where people should focus their efforts. They said it was "progress" that Treasury Secretary STEVEN MNUCHIN reentered the negotiation, but said the unemployment benefits were "unacceptable." They want the bipartisan talks to be center stage.

BUT COME ON: There are just 9 DAYS until Dec. 18 -- when Congress wants to leave for the year. Isn't it time to wrap up the bipartisan talks -- which have not produced legislative text yet! -- use what they've done as a menu from which the leadership can choose and put PELOSI and MCCONNELL at the table to negotiate? Time is running out. People need help.

Good Wednesday morning. 22 DAYS until the end of 2020. 42 DAYS until inauguration.

POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL … This week's survey asked this: "During the final month of President Trump's time in office, do you expect him to use his powers to pardon those who have committed federal crimes mostly for the good of the country? Or mostly for his own benefit?" 23% said for the good of the country, and 55% said for his own benefit.

-- BTW: 64% say marijuana should be legal at the federal level, and just 25% say it shouldn't. 66% say they support the House's recent vote to legalize marijuana.

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CHOOSE YOUR NEWS … NYT'S PETER BAKER: "Two Presidents, Two Messages, One Killer Virus": "One president all but declared victory over the pandemic, hailing new vaccines as a 'medical miracle' and congratulating himself for doing what 'nobody has ever seen before.' The next president declared the pandemic deadlier than ever, calling it a 'mass casualty' event that is leaving 'a gaping hole' in America with more misery to come. …

"Rarely has there been a single hour on a single day that saw such discordant messages emanating from Washington in a time of national crisis. In the middle of a transition of power that has already proved more unsettling than any in more than a century, the departing and incoming presidents on Tuesday offered the American people vastly divergent assessments of the state of their union."

DOOR CLOSING FOR TRUMP: "Supreme Court denies Trump allies' bid to overturn Pennsylvania election results," by WaPo's Robert Barnes and Elise Viebeck: "The Supreme Court on Tuesday denied a last-minute attempt by President Trump's allies to overturn the election results in Pennsylvania, a blow to the president's continuing efforts to reverse his loss to Democrat Joe Biden.

"The court's brief order denying a requested injunction provided no reasoning, nor did it note any dissenting votes. It was the first request to delay or overturn the results of last month's presidential election to reach the court, and it appears that Justice Amy Coney Barrett, Trump's latest nominee, took part in the case.

"The lawsuit was part of a blizzard of litigation and personal interventions Trump and his lawyers have waged to overturn victories by Biden in a handful of key states. But time is running out, and the electoral college is scheduled to meet in less than a week." WaPo

-- BUT! … 27 HOUSE REPUBLICANS have signed a letter asking TRUMP to ask A.G. BILL BARR to appoint a special counsel to investigate allegations of voter fraud. The letter, organized by Texas Rep. Lance Gooden

-- AND THIS HAPPENED! SARAH FERRIS, HEATHER CAYGLE and MELANIE ZANONA: "GOP leaders block measure affirming Biden as president-elect"

WORTH WATCHING -- "Republicans plot their first and last Trump rebellion," by Burgess Everett and Andrew Desiderio: "Trump's grip over his party has never been seriously challenged in the Congress, despite four years of hand-wringing over his erratic foreign policy, hard-line tariff regime and scattershot approach to legislation. Trump hasn't had a single veto overridden, with Republicans loath to directly confront such a wildly popular figure among the GOP base, though they have tanked some of his nominees and tried to influence him behind the scenes.

"But now at the ebb of his power and in the waning days of his presidency, Trump has met his match in defense hawks and the annual defense bill. It has passed 59 years in a row, and even loyal Trump supporters are looking past his Twitter attacks and plotting a rebellion against a president who often seeks vengeance against those who break with him. And they're acting like it's no big deal."

THE LATEST ON THE VACCINE -- "U.S. could face months of vaccine shortages amid global competition," by Sarah Owermohle: "The United States could be heading for a vaccine cliff this spring, with shortages forcing hundreds of millions of Americans to wait for shots amid intense global competition for limited doses.

"The Trump administration has bought 100 million doses each of vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, but the U.S. is unlikely to get additional doses anytime soon because of strong international demand. And both vaccines require two doses per person, effectively halving the already scarce supply.

"Trump administration officials insisted Tuesday that most American adults can be vaccinated by May. But despite President Donald Trump's attempt to compel vaccine sales to the U.S. by executive order, most Americans' best hope of getting a shot by spring or early summer may rest on vaccines that have not yet been proven to work — such as the doses being developed by Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca."

-- NYT: "Blunders Eroded U.S. Confidence in Early Vaccine Front-Runner," by Rebecca Robbins, Sharon LaFraniere, Noah Weiland, David Kirkpatrick and Benjamin Mueller: "Federal officials and public health experts viewed AstraZeneca's vaccine, which is less expensive and easier to store for long periods than some rival vaccines, as a leading candidate to help bring a swift end to the pandemic.

"AstraZeneca officials repeatedly said they hoped to roll out their vaccine in the United States as early as October. Today, though, AstraZeneca hasn't even finished enrolling people in its U.S. clinical trial. A key reason: The trial was grounded for nearly seven weeks because the company was slow to provide the F.D.A. with evidence that the vaccine was not associated with neurological symptoms that had appeared in two clinical-trial participants, according to the people with knowledge of the discussions."

MEANWHILE … "U.S. virus deaths hit record levels with the holidays ahead," by AP's Lisa Marie Pane and Rachel La Corte

 

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MORE TRANSITION NEWS … VILSACK BACK AT AG -- "Vilsack chosen as Biden's Agriculture secretary," by Tyler Pager, Helena Bottemiller Evich, Liz Crampton and Megan Cassella: "President-elect Joe Biden has selected Tom Vilsack as Agriculture secretary, according to three people familiar with the decision. Vilsack, who served as Agriculture secretary for eight years under the Obama administration, was a top rural and agriculture policy adviser during Biden's presidential campaign. He's also a former governor of Iowa and was a top contender to be Hillary Clinton's running mate in 2016.

"One person familiar with Biden's thinking said Vilsack's previous experience running the department was instrumental in the decision because the president-elect wanted someone who could immediately tackle the hunger and farm crises that have been exacerbated by the pandemic. This person added Biden was impressed by Vilsack's tenure as the head of the department."

-- ON THE DEFENSE FRONT -- BRYAN BENDER and LARA SELIGMAN: "'How will he be able to shift gears?': Questions swirl over Austin's limited experience": "If President-elect Joe Biden is expecting senators to focus on the historic nature of his nominee to lead the Pentagon, he might be in for a rude shock.

"Retired Gen. Lloyd Austin, an imposing West Point graduate and devout Catholic, is expected to face tough questions about his views on numerous pressing global issues, from China to climate change, that go well beyond the military realm and with which he has far less experience and little public record. Senators at his confirmation hearing will likely also grill him about his tenure as the top commander in the Middle East and his business ties in civilian life.

"And while confirming him as America's first Black secretary of Defense would make history, Biden's choice of Austin has already set off more hand-wringing than any other Biden pick — much of it focused on the fact that he will require another waiver from Congress, just four years after it reluctantly gave one to Jim Mattis, another recently retired general tapped to run the Department of Defense." NYT's Eric Lipton, Ken Vogel and Michael LaForgia on Austin and Raytheon

-- "Michèle Flournoy Again Finds Her Shot at the Top Pentagon Job Elusive," by NYT's Jennifer Steinhauer: "Michèle A. Flournoy, an experienced military policymaker and mentor to scores of women in national security, may now be remembered as the first female secretary of defense who wasn't. Three times."

SPY INTRIGUE … "Rep. Swalwell says Trump criticism behind spy story," by John Bresnahan: "Following a report that linked him to an alleged Chinese spy, Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell suggested the information was leaked to hurt him because of his frequent and loud criticism of President Donald Trump.

"Axios reported Monday that Swalwell was among a group of prominent Bay Area Democrats targeted by a Chinese national named Fang Fang or Christina Fang, allegedly an operative for China's Ministry of State Security, the country's premier intelligence organization. Fang first interacted with Swalwell — now a member of the House Intelligence Committee — when he served on the Dublin City Council in California. Swalwell defeated longtime Democratic incumbent Pete Stark in 2012, a stunning upset that made the young pol a star member of the incoming freshman class.

"By 2014, Fang was reportedly bundling donor checks for Swalwell's reelection campaign, according to Axios. Fang also helped place an intern in Swalwell's office. In 2015, U.S. intelligence officials, who had been monitoring Fang's activities, became concerned about her ties to Swalwell and provided a 'defensive briefing' to the California Democrat, Axios reported. Swalwell immediately cut off all contact with Fang, and he is not suspected of any improper actions in his dealings with her." POLITICO

TRUMP'S WEDNESDAY -- The president has no public events scheduled. VP MIKE PENCE will travel to Cape Canaveral, Fla., where he will meet with members of the 45th Space Wing and chair the eighth meeting of the National Space Council before returning to Washington.

 

JOIN TODAY - BATTLING INFORMATION CHAOS IN A PUBLIC HEALTH CRISIS: The extraordinary pace which scientists, doctors, epidemiologists, and hospital staff are working to fully understand the coronavirus can sometimes lead to the wrong information getting published and more accurate information being buried. Join POLITICO for a virtual deep-dive conversation on strategies for improving the flow of accurate and timely findings during a public health crisis. Tune in and hear the executive conversation between POLITICO CEO Patrick Steel and Surescripts CEO Tom Skelton. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

First lady Melania Trump

PHOTO DU JOUR: First lady Melania Trump visits with children as she participates in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve's Toys for Tots Drive at Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling in Washington, on Tuesday, Dec. 8. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo

TROUBLE FOR TERRY? -- "Terry McAuliffe wants to be governor again. Women: Not so fast," by Sabrina Rodríguez and Maya King: "Terry McAuliffe has long signaled he wants his old job back as Virginia governor. But a slew of political groups focused on women and Black voters have a message before he jumps in the race: It's not your time.

"McAuliffe's run -- he is planning to announce on Wednesday, POLITICO confirmed — has rankled a number of groups across the commonwealth and country. They argue he shouldn't be trying to reclaim the post he vacated three years ago when there are already two Black female candidates in the field— state Sen. Jennifer McClellan and state Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy. 'We've never elected a Black woman governor in this country's history,' said Glynda Carr, CEO of the Higher Heights PAC, which supports Black women running for political office.

"'And frankly, you've got two candidates that voters have an opportunity to elect at the office that both come from different qualifications, experiences, but particularly lived experiences as Black women. … I think voters are going to take a real hard look at the opportunity to do that.'"

DON JR.'S GEORGIA CAMPAIGN, via Fox News

VALLEY TALK -- "State, federal suits against Facebook expected as tech antitrust fight escalates," by Leah Nylen: "New York and dozens of other states are poised to sue Facebook for alleged antitrust violations as early as Wednesday, in a major escalation of a growing bipartisan fight to rein in the wealth and power of Silicon Valley's giants, a person familiar with the case told POLITICO.

"The suit, which could lead to the first court-ordered breakup of a major U.S. company in decades, is expected to allege that the world's largest social network sought to keep its monopoly by buying up potential rivals such as WhatsApp and Instagram before they could gain a foothold, two other people informed about the case said, requesting anonymity because the case is not yet public. It would also accuse Facebook of undercutting other competitors by restricting their access to its data.

"A Facebook spokesperson declined to comment. The person familiar with the states' planned lawsuit said it could also be pushed back to Thursday."

-- WSJ: "Elon Musk Moves to Texas, Takes Jab at Silicon Valley," by Heather Sommerville

 

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MEDIAWATCH -- "VOA Director Forced Aside In Drive To Embed Trump Loyalists Before Biden Era," by NPR's David Folkenflik: "U.S. Agency for Global Media CEO Michael Pack is intending to name as VOA director Robert Reilly, an ally who briefly served in the job under President George W. Bush nearly two decades ago. …

"Pack informed acting director Elez Biberaj of his ouster at his routinely scheduled noon meeting. Biberaj will return to his prior job as head of the Eurasia desk, one of six large regions covered by the global network, rather than resigning or retiring. … Reilly is a former State Department official and author. He has written critically of Islam and gay rights, the latter in a 2015 book titled 'Making Gay Okay: How Rationalizing Homosexual Behavior Is Changing Everything.'" NPR

-- "STAT News plans major expansion following banner year," by Axios' Sara Fischer: "The health, medicine and science outlet brought in over $10 million in revenue this year — up about 66% from last year, executives tell Axios. It plans to increase staff by roughly 40% next year to help launch new data products, events and custom reports. … It went from roughly 1.5 million monthly uniques prior to the pandemic to 23 million in March. Traffic is now at a steady 6 million monthly uniques over the past few months."

WEDNESDAY LISTEN -- In the latest episode of POLITICO's "GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS" podcast, hosts Luiza Savage and Ryan Heath talk to world leaders about how to secure critical minerals without creating new environmental problems. Listen and subscribe

 

TRACK THE TRANSITION & NEW ADMINISTRATION HEADING INTO 2021: President-elect Biden is pushing full steam ahead on putting together his Cabinet and White House staff. These appointments and staffing decisions send clear-cut signals about Biden's priorities. What do these signals foretell? Transition Playbook is the definitive guide to one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history. Written for political insiders, it tracks the appointments, people, and the emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com.

SPOTTED at the portrait unveiling for former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke at DOI headquarters Tuesday night ( pic of the portrait): Interior Secretary David Bernhardt, HUD Secretary Ben Carson and Candy Carson, Kate MacGregor, Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), Scott Hommel, Tommy Hicks, Heather Swift, Faith Vander Voort, Ben Goldey and Cole Rojewski.

SPOTTED at the Business Council for International Understanding's annual Dwight D. Eisenhower Global Awards virtual gala, where they honored Henry Kravis with the Eisenhower Global Citizenship Award on Tuesday night: George W. Bush, Arianna Huffington, Mike Bloomberg, Cindy McCain, Alex Gorsky, Susan Eisenhower …

… World Bank President David Malpass, U.S. Ambassador to Italy Lewis Eisenberg, Henry Kissinger, Jane Fraser, David Petraeus, Mukesh Ambani, Andrew Liveris, Tony Elumelu, Kenneth L. Davis, Peter Tichansky, Noor Sugrue, Amina Mohammed, Deborah Borda, Lim Chow Kiat, Farouk Bastaki, Ratan Tata, Nelson Cunningham and David Eberts.

TRANSITIONS -- Tommy Mattocks will be comms director for Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.). He most recently has been press secretary for the House Agriculture Committee. … Jay Payne, Charlie Liebschutz and Jon Reedy have been promoted to partner at GOP media firm SRCPmedia.

ENGAGED -- Hayley D'Antuono, deputy assistant to the president and director of operations to the office of the first lady, and Beau Harrison, deputy assistant to the president for operations, got engaged Nov. 30 on the West Colonnade of the White House. They met on her first day at the White House in March 2017. Pic Another pic

-- Michael Blume, manager of government and industry affairs at the American Forest and Paper Association, and Madison Larson, real estate appraiser for the city of Alexandria, got engaged at Martin's Tavern in Georgetown at the "Proposal Booth" where JFK proposed to Jackie. Pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Ariel Wiegard, federal government relations lead at Syngenta, and Pierce Wiegard, counsel for Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), on Thursday welcomed Henry Ulysses Crosby Wiegard, who goes by Ulysses. Pic

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Samantha Tubman, manager of special projects in the office of the president at the Obama Foundation. A trend she thinks doesn't get enough attention: "Climate change. Yes, it gets coverage, but this pandemic has shown us that unless we prepare and deal with issues ahead of time, we suffer consequences beyond our imagination. Until climate change and all of its potential impacts are top of mind for more people, it's not getting enough attention." Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) is 54 … Rep. Pete Olson (R-Texas) is 58 … former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle is 73 … James Pindell, Boston Globe political reporter … Brian McGuire, policy director at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck … Tamara Cofman Wittes is 51 … Alexandra DeSanctis, National Review staff writer … Shoshana Weissmann … Neal Wolin, CEO of Brunswick Group, is 59 … Terry Moran, senior national correspondent for ABC News, is 61 … Veronique Rodman … Jonathan Wald, SVP of programming and development at MSNBC … Cris Turner, VP and head of global government and public affairs at Micron Technology … Kyle Roberts … Ryan Whalen of Bloomberg Philanthropies … Aniela Butler … Megan Devlin, comms and marketing director for the Meridian International Center (h/t Ben Chang) … Karen Harbert, president and CEO of the American Gas Association … Eric Wachter, director at Finsbury, is 42 (h/t wife Miriam Fischer Wachter) …

… Andrew Ricci, principal at Riccon Strategic Communications … Emily Kopp … Shira Almeleh, director of comms for Morning Consult (h/t Olivia Petersen) … Tricia Enright, comms director for Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) (h/t Jon Haber) … Dave Boundy … Wisconsin first lady Kathy Evers … Robert Kraig … Ken Walsh (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) … Kelsey Gorman, COO of Miller Strategies … former Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant is 66 … former Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin is 66 … Dennis Plane, professor of politics at Juniata College … former European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker … John E. Smith … Scott Schloegel … former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-Texas) is 74 … Jeff Smith is 47 … Anne Campbell Dudro … Laena Fallon … Kathryn Cameron Porter … Fernando Lujan … Ryan King … Richard Allen Smith … Graham Wilson … Rhett Dawson … Eric Garcia … Don McDowell … Dawn Wilson … Derrick Johnson … Richard Wachtel is 38 … Rick Horten is 52 … Josh Katcher … Dan Greenberg is 55

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