Tuesday, December 8, 2020

☕️ Ikea says Farväl

The only publication more popular than the Bible...
December 08, 2020 View Online | Sign Up

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Sing it with us: "It's the most wonderful time of the year..."

No, we're not talking about snow forts or the Pentatonix Christmas album; we're talking about the Brew's MacBook Pro giveaway, which is back at long last. Here's how it works: 

  • When you share the Brew today using your unique referral link, you get entered into a raffle to win a MacBook Pro.
  • If you win a computer, we'll select someone you referred to win one, too. And the more you share, the better chance you have (1 referral = 1 ticket).

Share to win.

MARKETS

NASDAQ

12,519.95

+ 0.45%

S&P

3,691.96

- 0.19%

DOW

30,069.79

- 0.49%

GOLD

1,866.40

+ 1.43%

10-YR

0.926%

- 4.40 bps

OIL

45.63

- 1.36%

*As of market close

  • Markets: a relatively uneventful day. The Nasdaq hit a record thanks to a push from Big Tech, but energy stocks fell. 
  • Covid-19 update: The U.S. is now averaging about the same number of coronavirus-related deaths per day as during the first wave in April—around 2,200. The UK will administer a Covid-19 vaccine today for the first time, though the first 800,000 doses will go to select groups. 

COMMODITIES

Back to the Futures

An illustration of a red gumball vending machine filled with water in front of a light purple background. A small puddle has leaked out at its base.

Francis Scialabba

Looking for a liquid investment? As of yesterday, you can buy a futures contract for 3.3 million gallons of water on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Quick detour to Finance 101

Well, maybe 301. If you buy a commodity or security in a spot market, i.e., a physical or cash market, you purchase that thing for immediate delivery. California's spot water market is worth ~$1.1 billion. 

If you buy a futures contract, you agree to purchase the asset at a predetermined price on a future date. Investors can buy futures contracts for commodities (like crude oil and wheat), foreign currency exchanges, precious metals, stocks, or bonds. 

California farmers could use the help

California is the country's largest water market by a magnitude of four, but its water supply is less consistent than a container of strawberries in January. The state is regularly hit by droughts, which can send affected farmers, utilities, and cities to the spot market—where prices are likely rising.

The new water futures, which are tied to a California water index, are supposed to help with risk management. Investors hope that locking in prices will let buyers hedge (insure) against price fluctuations, especially during months when droughts and other factors strain supply. 

Why now?

Investors can buy futures contracts for everything from fresh bacon to Burgundy wine, but the commoditization of an element critical to daily life is worrying to some observers—especially as water access becomes more strained.

"Climate change, droughts, population growth, and pollution are likely to make water scarcity issues and pricing a hot topic for years to come," RBC Capital Markets Managing Director Deane Dray told Bloomberg

  • Over 2 billion people already live in countries with high water stress, a number the UN sees as only getting bigger.

Bottom line: While these water futures are a first, climate change could spur more innovation around securing access to scarce resources. 

        

AUTO

Uber Passes the Baton

Yesterday, Uber announced the sale of its Advanced Technologies Group (ATG) to Aurora Innovations. Don't let the drab name fool you: ATG was Uber's big bet on a fleet of self-driving vehicles. 

Why Uber is letting go: 

  1. Self-driving cars are expensive. The division burned through ~$500 million annually and was set to run out of cash next year.
  2. The pandemic walloped ride hailing. Not that Uber posted a profitable quarter before Covid, but recent challenges have forced it to put some moonshot projects on the chopping block. Uber is reportedly unloading its air taxi division too. 

Who is Aurora? 

It's a young Silicon Valley startup working on self-driving semis and taxis that was founded by Chris Urmson, who LinkedIn cofounder Reid Hoffman called the "Henry Ford of autonomous vehicles." 

  • As part of the deal, Uber will invest $400 million in Aurora and CEO Dara Khosrowshahi will join the board. It'll also eventually use Aurora's self-driving cars in its service. 

Big picture: Several self-driving startups have downsized or closed shop during the pandemic. Experts predict more consolidation ahead. 

+ Want more autonomous vehicle news? Subscribe to Emerging Tech Brew.

        

MUSIC

So, Bob, How Does It Feel?

Bob Dylan

Giphy

Yesterday, cultural icon/harmonica player Bob Dylan sold his entire catalog of more than 600+ songs to the Universal Music Publishing Group. The grand total? More than $300 million, according to the New York Times (the actual terms weren't disclosed).

Why it matters: Dylan is one of the most famous artists of all time, and his catalog is considered a priceless treasure of the music canon. It's especially shiny from a biz perspective because of the royalties generated when other artists cover Dylan's music—which they tend to do...often. His songs have been recorded more than 6,000 times.

  • A few more Dylan stats before we move on: He's sold more than 125 million records globally and was the first songwriter to win the Nobel Prize for Literature.
  • Most impressively, he did it all without TikTok. 

The times they are a-changin': With recorded music revenues back on the rise thanks to streaming, artist catalogs have become a hot investment target. Fleetwood Mac singer Stevie Nicks just sold a majority stake in her own songwriting catalog, which was valued at around $100 million.

        

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TRADE

In November, Everything Was Made in China

If international trade were a middle school lunch table, China just ended up with everyone's pudding cups. In November, China posted its biggest month for exports on record, and its trade surplus—the amount by which exports exceed imports—topped $75 billion.

The massive trade surplus can be traced back to a familiar suspect: the pandemic. China's exports of medical equipment and WFH-related electronic goods have soared while two of its main trade partners, the U.S. and EU, struggle to contain the virus. 

  • Shipments to the U.S. specifically are up 46% from the same period last year, resulting in a $37.3 billion surplus. But analysts say that a vaccine could lead to a more balanced equation once the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders again.

Zoom out: The U.S-China trade deficit is closely watched because one of President Trump's main economic goals was to reduce the imbalance by slapping tariffs on Chinese goods. President-elect Joe Biden said he wouldn't immediately unwind those tariffs when he gets to the White House.

        

RETAIL

Ikea Says Farväl to Famous Catalog

Hand reaching for Ikea catalogs

Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images

While Nicolas Sparks is proof that books can make you cry, turns out catalogs can bring on the waterworks, too. Yesterday, Ikea made the "emotional but rational" decision to discontinue its iconic furniture catalog after a 70-year run.

The backstory: A mainstay of coffee tables everywhere, the notoriously thick lookbook is said to be the most widely distributed publication in the world—even more than the Bible. At its peak, Ikea produced 200 million copies in 32 different languages.

But the Bible doesn't compete with e-commerce. Online sales (up 45% last year) have become increasingly important to Ikea's business, and customers just weren't using the paper catalog as much as they used to. 

Bottom line: Online furniture sales have been a pandemic winner for retailers like Wayfair and Amazon, so Ikea's decision to focus on its digital operations makes business sense. Just don't get rid of the meatballs. 

+ While we're here: If you're feeling nostalgic, visit the digital Ikea museum to leaf through decades of past catalog issues.  

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • The World Economic Forum's summit, typically held in Davos, Switzerland, is being moved to Singapore and taking place in May. 
  • Kodak stock gained nearly 60% after the WSJ reported a watchdog found no shenanigans in the government's loan to the company to produce drug ingredients. That loan was halted in August.
  • More than 110,000 U.S. restaurants have closed for the long-term or permanently, per the National Restaurant Association. New York City could shut down indoor dining soon as well. 
  • Applications to medical schools are up 18% over last year, per the Association of American Medical Colleges. It's being called the "Fauci Effect." 
  • Stitch Fix turned a surprise profit last quarter even as the broader apparel industry faltered. The stock exploded nearly 35% after the announcement.
  • A marketing stunt, but we'll bite: KFC is airing a "mini-movie" on Lifetime called A Recipe for Seduction

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GIVEAWAY

How to Win a Free Laptop

Giveaway meme

Neal Freyman

The Brew's legendary MacBook Pro giveaway is back. When you share the Brew today, you'll have a chance to win a brand new MacBook Pro for you and someone who signs up to the newsletter using your referral link.

  • Each time you refer someone to Morning Brew, you'll get a ticket entered into the raffle. 1 referral = 1 ticket.

How to start: Click the share button below to grab your unique referral link. Then, tell everyone you know that they can 1) read business news that makes you smile even during a pandemic and 2) have a chance to win a new computer.

Insider tips: We wrote about six popular methods readers have used to rack up referrals. So if you're not sure where to start on your sharing journey, make sure you consult this document.

Share to Win

BREW'S BETS

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Tech Tip Tuesday: This cuffing season, The Engadget pod covered some tech etiquette for dating, relationships, and breakups—especially when romance is more remote than ever. 

Learn from the best: The Profile is a digestible newsletter featuring stories on the most successful people and companies. Check it out—it's a Brew Crew favorite.

Listen up: On our podcast, Business Casual, we asked two experts about the ramifications of Big Tech's copycat culture: 1) Platformer News Founder Casey Newton explains how imitation stifles innovation and 2) Sonos CEO Patrick Spence describes the legal issues of knocking off ideas like Stories.

*This is sponsored advertising content. See important Masterworks information.

GAMES

The Name Game

You might know that Bob Dylan wasn't actually born with the name Bob Dylan—he was originally Robert Allen Zimmerman. In the spirit of changing your name to boost your star power, we'll give you a list of musicians' birth names and you have to identify their stage names.

  • Ex. Marshall Bruce Mathers III = Eminem
  1. Austin Richard Post 
  2. Belcalis Marlenis Almánzar 
  3. Peter Gene Hernandez 
  4. Chaim Witz 
  5. Stefani Joanne Angelina Germanotta 

SHARE THE BREW

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Hey! Do you read Morning Brew? It's an awesome daily newsletter that covers the must-read business news in 5 minutes. They're running a giveaway today so if you sign up using my link, we're both entered to win a MacBook Pro. Sign up here—it's free: morningbrew.com/daily/r/?kid=8386977e

Share to Win

ANSWERS

  1. Austin Richard Post = Post Malone
  2. Belcalis Marlenis Almánzar = Cardi B
  3. Peter Gene Hernandez = Bruno Mars
  4. Chaim Witz = Gene Simmons 
  5. Stefani Joanne Angelina Germanotta = Lady Gaga
              

Written by Alex Hickey, Toby Howell, and Neal Freyman

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