Tuesday, December 1, 2020

How Biden fell in love with Yellen — Tanden the top target — Powell: Tough months ahead

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By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

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Quick Fix

How Biden fell in love with YellenVia Megan Casella and me with much help: "In the end, … it was Yellen's unrivaled experience, along with her perceived ability to win support across the political spectrum, that made her a top contender within the campaign and transition as far back as the summer, even as others — including Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard and Roger Ferguson, a former vice chair at the central bank who leads investment manager TIAA — drew most of the speculation.

"Above anything else, the president-elect wants to fill senior roles with trusted and well-known advisers and to avoid any shocking surprises, several Biden transition advisers said. The entire theme of the transition is one of calmness and predictability, providing a strong counterpoint to the wild ride of the last four years."

Sneak peek: More on the left and Brian Deese — In this afternoon's POLITICO "The Long Game" newsletter I write a bit more about whey some on the highly progressive left are agitating about Brian Deese for NEC Director under Biden:

"The 42 year-old has, to many on the left, been a big disappointment. Some progressives say he wasn't aggressive enough on the environment when he served as Obama's deputy director of the NEC and later at the Office of Management and Budget. Then there's BlackRock."

Sign up for "The Long Game" here and read the whole thing this afternoon.

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING — Happy Tuesday! Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

 

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Driving the Day

At 10:00 a.m., Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testify before Senate Banking about the CARES Act. Much focus likely to center on Treasury cancelling certain Fed emergency facilities …

The Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution and the Peterson Institute for International Economics are hosting an event … from 3:00-5:00 PM EST on "Fiscal policy advice for Joe Biden and Congress." Agenda.

TANDEN BECOMES THE TARGET — As we noted before, CAP's Neera Tanden was clearly slated to be the Biden nominee drawing the most fire, given her high-profile Twitter presence.

Get smart on this: Tanden is up for the fight, people close to her say, and remains determined that Republicans not get to pick Biden's Cabinet. She could provide some quality confirmation hearing TV, given her brains and command of policy minutiae. At the same time, Biden-world would be tossing out some read meat for Republicans to nosh on while getting the rest of their picks through.

TOUGH ROAD AHEAD — Our Burgess Everett, Caitlin Emma, and Theodoric Meyer: "The easiest way … Tanden to win confirmation as … Biden's budget director is for Democrats to take the Senate in January. Otherwise, she faces a perilous path to winning a majority vote in the chamber.

"A prolific Twitter user and swaggering political combatant, the president of the Center for American Progress represents the first real test of Biden's sway among Republicans. Tanden quickly received strong backing from progressives … But provided Republicans can win one of two Senate seats in a pair of Georgia runoffs, Tanden will need at least some GOP support to be confirmed."

SANDERS BACKERS NOT SO HAPPY — Our Holly Otterbein: "Progressives have been able to live with most of … Biden's Cabinet picks. But to many of Sen. Bernie Sanders' staunchest supporters, Biden's decision to tap Hillary Clinton loyalist Neera Tanden to lead the Office of Management and Budget is just too much — the equivalent of rubbing salt in the wound.

"To former Sanders staffers and allies, Tanden is one of the Democratic elites who helped sink his 2016 campaign behind the scenes, not to mention a union-buster, a threat to Social Security, a hippie-puncher who constantly picks fights with the left, and much more."

SBA TO REVEAL BUSINESSES THAT TOOK EMERGENCY AID — Our Zachary Warmbrodt: "The Trump administration on Tuesday will disclose the identities of millions of business owners who took emergency loans during the Covid-19 pandemic, in a legal victory for news organizations and transparency advocates who sued to obtain the information.

"The Small Business Administration told POLITICO that the agency will comply with a recent court order requiring it to release the names of borrowers and loan amounts under the Paycheck Protection Program and the Economic Injury Disaster loan program. The data, which the SBA will release on its website, will cover loans of $150,000 or less issued as of Nov. 24."

 

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Markets

STOCKS SLIP, BUT S&P 500 STILL COMES OUT ON TOP — AP's Stan Choe, Damian J. Troise and Alex Veiga: "Stocks pulled back slightly from their record levels Monday as Wall Street put a quiet coda on one of its most rocking months in decades.

"The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, but the benchmark index still clocked a surge of 10.8% for November, its biggest monthly gain since April, as investors latch onto hopes that the economy will get closer to normal next year as coronavirus vaccines begin to be distributed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has far less impact on 401(k) accounts than the S&P 500 does, had its best month since 1987."

And Dow held on for its best month in over three decades — WSJ's Joe Wallace and Akane Otani: "The market's momentum faded on the final trading day of November, with all three major indexes ending lower. But those losses didn't chip away much from stocks' performance for the month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 12%, marking its best month since January 1987."

SOME WALL STREET DEMS ARE SITTING OUT GEORGIA SENATE RACES — Bloomberg's Bill Allison and Sonali Basak: "As deep-pocketed Democrats on Wall Street celebrate the ouster of President Donald Trump, some are privately showing little appetite for backing the party's remaining skirmishes in Georgia.

"Employees of securities and investment firms poured about $77 million into President-elect Joe Biden's campaign and the super-PACs supporting him, more than quadruple what they steered toward Trump. But the pair of Democrats facing runoff elections in Georgia against Republican senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler on Jan. 5 are unlikely to see such lopsided support — even with control of the chamber at stake."

 

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Fly Around

BIDEN'S ECONOMIC PICKS SUGGEST FOCUS ON WORKERS, INCOME INEQUALITY — NYT's Jim Tankersley, Jeanna Smialek and Alan Rappeport: "President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. formally announced his top economic advisers on Monday, choosing a team that is stocked with champions of organized labor and marginalized workers, signaling an early focus on efforts to speed and spread the gains of the recovery from the pandemic recession.

"The selections build on a pledge Mr. Biden made to business groups two weeks ago, when he said labor unions would have "increased power" in his administration. They suggest that Mr. Biden's team will be focused initially on increased federal spending to reduce unemployment and an expanded safety net to cushion households that have continued to suffer as the virus persists and the recovery slows."

FED EXTENDS FOUR EMERGENCY LENDING PROGRAMS — WSJ's Nick Timiraos: "The Federal Reserve on Monday said it had extended through next March four backstop lending programs that helped to stabilize short-term funding markets when the coronavirus pandemic hit this past spring. The extensions were widely expected and don't apply to any of the lending programs that the Treasury Department earlier this month said it would not renew."

POWELL: 'CHALLENGING' MONTHS UNTIL VACCINE CLEARS PRODUCTION — Reuters: "A slowing recovery and a surging pandemic mean the United States is entering a "challenging" few months, with the potential deployment of a vaccine still facing the hurdles of production and mass distribution before its impact on the economy becomes clear, Fed chair Jerome Powell said on Monday.

"'The rise in new COVID-19 cases, both here and abroad, is concerning and could prove challenging for the next few months,' Powell said in remarks prepared for delivery to a congressional hearing on Tuesday morning."

 

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FED'S BARKIN: ECONOMY HOLDING UP AMID VIRUS RESURGENCE — Bloomberg's Steve Matthews: "The U.S. economy seems to be holding up despite a surge in Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations, clouding the case for more monetary stimulus, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said.

'''It's hard to find a huge drop in the real-time data,' Barkin told reporters Monday in a press briefing before a University of South Carolina virtual speech. 'I'm thinking about credit-card spending which I get to see every week. It really hasn't taken a step back yet.'"

BANKS URGED TO STOP USING LIBOR ON NEW LOANS BY END OF 2021 — WSJ's Andrew Ackerman: "U.S. regulators on Monday pressed banks to stop using the London interbank offered rate on new transactions by the end of 2021 while backing a plan to allow many existing transactions to mature before Libor fully winds down in June 2023.

"The moves amount to the strongest and clearest guidance yet from regulators about the risks to banks for writing new contracts based on Libor, an interest-rate benchmark that global policy makers moved to scrap after concluding it was balky and prone to manipulation."

HOUSING, MANUFACTURING DATA SUGGEST ECONOMIC RECOVERY SLOWING — Reuters' Lucia Mutikani: "Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes fell for a second straight month in October as an acute shortage of properties pushed up prices, though the housing market remains supported by record low mortgage rates. Other data on Monday showed activity at factories in the Midwest and Texas slowing this month, likely as a nationwide resurgence in new COVID-19 infections curbed new orders and disrupted production."

 

NEXT WEEK - DON'T MISS THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT 2020: POLITICO will feature a special edition Future Pulse newsletter at the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators determined to confront and conquer the most significant health challenges. Covid-19 has exposed weaknesses across our health systems, particularly in the treatment of our most vulnerable communities, driving the focus of the 2020 conference on the converging crises of public health, economic insecurity, and social justice. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage from December 7–9.

 
 
 

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