Axios Generate: Renewables' COVID-19 resistance — Beltway energy deal close — A driverless electric stagecoach

1 big thing: Renewables are fighting off the pandemic | Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Open in app View in browser   Presented By General Motors   Generate By Ben Geman ·Dec 15, 2020 Welcome back! Today's Smart Brevity count: 1,386 words, 5 minutes. 🛸And today marks 45 years since Parliament released the funk classic "Mothership Connection," so they'll blast off with today's intro tune...     1 big thing: Renewables are fighting off the pandemic Screenshot of data via Wood Mackenzie's U.S. Solar Market Insight report New data released this morning shows that total U.S. solar installations will reach a new record this year. Why it matters: It's one of several recent signs that the trajectory of the renewables sector has been less hampered by COVID-19 than initially feared. Driving the news: The U.S. saw 3.8 gigawatts of new installed capacity in the third quarter, mostly coming from utility-scale projects. Full-year additions are expected to exceed 19 GW, per the consultancy Wood Mackenzie (see the chart above). What they're saying: "As quarterly volumes demonstrate more resilience to pandemic impacts than originally anticipated — with a faster-than-expected recovery for distributed solar — our outlook for the year has increased since last quarter," notes the analysis released with the Solar Energy Industries Association. Where it stands: The report notes that utility-scale projects were only "minimally" affected by pandemic-related construction delays. But the residential market has been on a roller coaster as lockdowns and other forces caused installations to crater earlier in the year. In California, the biggest market, installations fell 23% in the second quarter but rose 15% in Q3. New York was even more dramatic, falling 73% from Q1 to Q2 and then rebounding by 156% in Q3, the report notes. Greentech Media (which Wood Mackenzie owns) has more. The big picture: Separately, a new International Energy Agency analysis of global electricity markets finds that while global electricity demand is falling 2% this year due to the pandemic, renewable power generation rose around 7%. "Long-term contracts, priority access to the grid and sustained installation of new plants are all underpinning strong growth in renewable electricity production," the report released yesterday finds. IEA also said that installations of new global renewable generating capacity will reach a new record this year. Yes, but: As Generate readers know, the global energy mix — in both electricity and elsewhere — is not changing quickly enough to put the world on a path toward sustained emissions cuts consistent with Paris Agreement goals. And that brings me to yet a third report or at least part of it. Last week the research firm BloombergNEF released its big annual Climatescope analysis of global clean energy investment trends in emerging markets. I won't even try to capture the whole thing here, but one finding of note today: "Pandemic-related disruptions now appear to be giving investors pause and slowing emerging markets clean energy investment flows."     2. Oil forecast highlights the long road back from COVID-19 Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   The latest IEA analysis of oil markets provides a window into how long it will take for life to return to normal despite the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines. Driving the news: This morning the agency slightly trimmed its 2021 oil demand outlook even further. Its monthly report now sees oil consumption next year climbing 5.7 million barrels per day compared to 2020 levels. That's a lot! But consider that demand plunged by an unprecedented 8.8 million barrels per day this year, per their latest data. The big picture: The biggest reason 2021 demand will still be way lower than 2019 has to do with air travel remaining way below pre-pandemic levels. But more broadly, the year-to-year comparison doesn't capture the slow ramp up. Why it matters: Oil supply and demand data are always closely watched by traders, but in the pandemic era, they're also a proxy for the status of restrictions and the return to old ways — or lack thereof. What they're saying: "[I]t will be several months before we reach a critical mass of vaccinated, economically active people and thus see an impact on oil demand," the agency said. Here's more on why it expects 2021 oil consumption to recover just two-thirds of the amount lost in 2020: Growth in road fuel will be strong and almost reach 2019 levels. Jet fuel comes back more slowly as restrictions remain until vaccines are widely available. Also, older people will remain cautious, while the economic hit means less money to spend on air travel overall, and business travel will be hit by cost-cutting and online meetings.     3. Beltway energy deal may be at hand (really) Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   All kinds of strange things can happen in a lame-duck session — ahead of a White House transition no less — and apparently a bipartisan energy deal is among them. Driving the news: Per multiple reports (like this Washington Examiner piece) and some of my own sourcing, lawmakers are closing in on an agreement on a package that would be attached to an omnibus spending deal moving through Congress. Why it matters: One major provision is an apparent deal on phasing down the use of hydrofluorocarbons, a very potent greenhouse gas used in refrigeration, air-conditioning and other applications. "We have made very good progress towards an agreement on HFC reduction," Sen. Chuck Schumer, the top Senate Democrat, said on the chamber's floor yesterday. He said it would be the "single biggest victory in the fight against climate change to pass this body in a decade." The big picture: Per a draft I saw and several reports, the overall measure contains a suite of provisions authorizing finance and overhaul of Energy Department programs to boost innovation and deployment of carbon removal tech, energy storage, renewables, nuclear and more. Here's a snippet of a detailed E&E News piece this morning: "In total, the bill would authorize $35.2 billion in research spending over the next decade. That includes more than a dozen demonstration projects on advanced nuclear reactors, energy storage and carbon capture technologies." Yes, but: Bipartisan energy deals come around extremely rarely, so let's see if this actually happens. Roll Call reported last night that "House Democratic leadership had not delivered an official blessing of the energy deal" and that the situation is "fluid."     A message from General Motors A new STEM-based video series for future engineers     General Motors is helping students around the world learn STEM online. Here's how: A video series called Electrifying Engineering, where kids can learn electric vehicle technology. See how this will help enable GM's vision of a world with Zero Crashes, Zero Emissions and Zero Congestion.     4. Zoox unveils a modern driverless stagecoach Zoox robotaxi in San Francisco. Photo: Zoox   Axios' Joann Muller reports...Amazon-backed Zoox has unveiled an autonomous electric vehicle with no steering wheel that might one day be summoned with a ride-hailing app. Why it matters: The reveal yesterday is an important milestone for Zoox, which has ambitious plans to launch an urban robotaxi service using purpose-built vehicles designed and built in-house. Those efforts received a boost in June when Amazon acquired the six-year-old startup for a reported $1.2 billion. Details: At 12 feet long, the compact vehicle features carriage-style seating, with up to four passengers facing each other on two benches. It can travel in either direction, with motors at each end and four-wheel steering to enable maneuvering in tight spaces. The 133 kWh battery is capable of operating 16 hours between charges. The vehicle features a combination of sensors, including cameras, radar, and lidar to obtain a 270-degree field of view on all four corners. What to watch: No word yet on when Zoox plans to launch its app-based ride-hailing service or how Amazon might employ the technology for delivery.     5. Exxon vows emissions curbs amid growing pressure ICYMI, ExxonMobil unveiled new targets on Monday for reining in greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years. Why it matters: Exxon and Chevron are the two most powerful U.S. based multinational oil giants and face increasing pressure from activists and investors to take stronger steps on climate. Driving the news: Exxon said it would cut the greenhouse gas intensity — that is, emissions per unit of output — from its oil-and-gas exploration and production operations by 15%-20% by 2025 compared to 2016 levels. The company vowed a 40%-50% cut to the intensity of its emissions of the highly potent greenhouse gas methane. Exxon also pledged a steep drop in the practice of flaring — or burning — natural gas at its operations by 2025 and an end to "routine flaring" by 2030. Of note: Intensity targets are not a measure of absolute emissions, and it's not clear how much those might fall under the new plan. CEO Darren Woods said there would be "meaningful near-term emission reductions." Yes, but: Andrew Logan of the sustainable investment advocacy group Ceres, said Exxon is still lagging in the climate space. "There are some things to like in here, particularly around the flaring and methane commitments, but overall this is underwhelming and fails to address ExxonMobil's main source of risk — its product emissions," he said. Go deeper     6. Catch up fast: Offshore wind, climate, EVs Renewables: "Japan plans to install as much as 45 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind power by 2040, the country's industry ministry said on Wednesday as the government aims to reduce emissions and meet a target to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050." (Reuters) Finance: "After a disappointing lack of new climate finance pledges at an ambition summit on Saturday, the UK is planning to bring donor countries and vulnerable nations together at a conference in March." (Climate Home News) Electric cars: "Mercedes-Benz has further detailed the expansion of its all electric EQ sub-brand with the announcement of six models all due to be launched by 2022." (Autocar)     A message from General Motors These videos are preparing kids to be future engineers     Using everyday items, kids can recreate STEM projects in the comfort of their homes. Here's how: Electrifying Engineering, a series of online videos from GM, is helping students learn about electric car motors, autonomous vehicle sensors, electric car charging and more. Get started.     Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Suite 1300, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: