Thanks to risk aversion on markets, the US dollar was one of the strongest currencies in September, rivaled only by the Japanese yen - another safe-haven currency. Market participants were worried about the increasing number of COVID-19 cases worldwide, though there were other reasons for the risk-off sentiment, including the upcoming US presidential election. The Federal Reserve threw a bombshell, announcing that it plans to keep interest rates at the current record low level till at least 2023. The euro ended September mixed. The currency was often moving with the market sentiment, rising on good news and falling on bad. The currency got a short-term boost from the relatively hawkish monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank. The Great Britain pound was the weakest currency in September due to a range of factors: the threat of a no-deal Brexit, the rising number of coronavirus cases, and prospects for negative interest rates from the Bank of England. Investors were a bit more optimistic about the trade deal between the United Kingdom and the European Union lately, though. The Japanese yen ended last month as the strongest currency, attracting traders due to its status as a safe haven. The extremely loose monetary policy and the possibility of additional monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan did not hurt the currency much. The Swiss franc lagged compared to the greenback and the yen, despite also being a safe currency. The insistence of the Swiss National Bank on intervening in the currency markets to prevent the franc from appreciating too much was not helping currency at all. The Canadian dollar fell versus the US dollar and the yen last month but ended September about flat against most other major currencies. As usual, the Canadian currency was often following moves of crude oil prices, though not always. The Bank of Canada signaled that it is going to keep low interest rates and quantitative easing going until inflation reaches the 2% target. The Australian dollar was one of the weakest currencies last month, beating only the sterling. Besides risk aversion that was dragging riskier commodity currencies down, the Aussie had its own reasons to drop, like the fact that Australia experienced its first recession in three decades and the outlook for an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia perhaps as soon as in October. Recently, analysts decided that the RBA will likely not cut rates so soon but may do so in November. On a positive side, the labor market improved in August, while economists were expecting deterioration. The New Zealand dollar fared far better even though the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled that it is preparing for implementing negative interest rates. Easing the coronavirus-related restrictions was one of the factors helping the currency. Turkey's central bank surprised markets by hiking interest rates by a big number. But the rally of the Turkish lira, which followed the cut, did not last long. Gold as well as other precious metals showed a very poor performance in September due to the strong US dollar. The yellow metal erased a large chunk of its losses by the end of the month, though, as the greenback was weakening. |
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