Tuesday, October 6, 2020

=?utf-8?q?When to Close a Profitable Trade? =F0=9F=94=A5?=

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EarnForex.com Monthly Newsletter
October 6th, 2020

Hello traders! Welcome to the latest issue of EarnForex.com newsletter — October 2020.

In this issue of EarnForex.com newsletter, I will remind you about the most important Forex-related events of the last month and will also show you the list of the site's latest updates.

EDITORIAL: When to Close a Profitable Trade? 🔥

Closing a trade in profit is a pain point of many Forex traders. While having a mandatory stop-loss to limit the risk per trade is a standard and almost undisputed practice, setting a predetermined take-profit isn't considered obligatory. And as with exiting a trade at a loss, exiting it at a profit can be done in multiple ways and is associated with many emotional pitfalls in trading.

There several basic ways to exit a trade at a profit and you should decide which one to include into your trading plan beforehand — it isn't something that should be decided upon when you are already holding a profitable trade and have to deal with the psychological impact of it.

  • Static take-profit based on the number of pips (e.g., 100 pips) is a "newbie way" to close trades. It is based on the trader's desire to get N pips and not on the market conditions. However, even a poor plan is better than no plan at all.
  • Using technical analysis — important chart levels — to set your take-profit order is one of the obvious, and at the same time best, approaches. For example, you can set your TP to just under the next resistance level if you are buying or just above the next support level if you are selling.
  • Round numbers aren't traditional technical levels; they rather pertain to the realm of sentiment analysis. Setting your TP close to nearby round levels can be used when no apparent support and resistance levels are available.
  • Using Average True Range and its multiples for take-profit works similarly to an ATR-based stop-loss. Setting up an ATR-based take-profit effectively mirrors your expectations for the currency pair to go in your direction by a range based on the pair's previous volatility.
  • Fibonacci levels are popular for setting both SL and TP levels among traders who believe in the power of Fibonacci extensions and retracements.
  • Dynamic take-profit levels are also feasible. Basic trailing stop-loss, despite its name, can be an indispensable tool to exit with profit when dealing with an asset that you expect to be in an uptrend (or downtrend) for a long time and there are no nearby support/resistance levels to rely on. A trailing stop can also be based on the volatility measures (e.g., ATR).
  • Putting your take-profit to near a moving average (or a similar chart indicator) is another possible way to get into dynamic profit-taking with strong dependence on the immediate price action.
  • Time-based take-profit is a technique that lets you close your trade without relying on any technical or fundamental signals. This can be beneficial when there is a lot of uncertainty in the market and you have no idea which levels to use. What's important is for the actual exit time to be decided before you enter the trade.

Of course, your trading strategy can incorporate more than one of the above-mentioned profit-taking methods. The crucial thing here is to have a strict plan for exiting a profitable trade and stick to that plan.

Overview of the major currency pairs' performance in September

EUR/USD — was in a strong decline during September. It was at the maximum at 1.2010 on September 1, at its minimum at 1.1612 on September 25, finishing the month at 1.1721.

GBP/USD — declined rapidly in September but managed to recover some of the losses during the final days of the month. The highest monthly rate was at 1.3482 on September 1, while the lowest — at 1.2674 on September 23. GBP/USD finished September trading at 1.2915.

USD/JPY — posted a nearly perfect V-pattern last month. The pair rose to as high as 106.55 on September 3, reaching a bottom at 104.00 on September 21 and closing the month with the 105.44 rate.

AUD/USD — moved sideways during the first half of the month but then fell abruptly. The monthly high was at 0.7413 on September 1, the monthly low — at 0.7005 on September 25. Trading ended at 0.7159 for this currency pair.

USD/CAD — was rising steadily in September. The maximum level for this pair was 1.3420 on September 30, while the minimum — 1.2993 on September 1. The month's trading ended at 1.3315 for USD/CAD.

Fundamental background of the past month

Thanks to risk aversion on markets, the US dollar was one of the strongest currencies in September, rivaled only by the Japanese yen - another safe-haven currency. Market participants were worried about the increasing number of COVID-19 cases worldwide, though there were other reasons for the risk-off sentiment, including the upcoming US presidential election. The Federal Reserve threw a bombshell, announcing that it plans to keep interest rates at the current record low level till at least 2023.

The euro ended September mixed. The currency was often moving with the market sentiment, rising on good news and falling on bad. The currency got a short-term boost from the relatively hawkish monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank.

The Great Britain pound was the weakest currency in September due to a range of factors: the threat of a no-deal Brexit, the rising number of coronavirus cases, and prospects for negative interest rates from the Bank of England. Investors were a bit more optimistic about the trade deal between the United Kingdom and the European Union lately, though.

The Japanese yen ended last month as the strongest currency, attracting traders due to its status as a safe haven. The extremely loose monetary policy and the possibility of additional monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan did not hurt the currency much.

The Swiss franc lagged compared to the greenback and the yen, despite also being a safe currency. The insistence of the Swiss National Bank on intervening in the currency markets to prevent the franc from appreciating too much was not helping currency at all.

The Canadian dollar fell versus the US dollar and the yen last month but ended September about flat against most other major currencies. As usual, the Canadian currency was often following moves of crude oil prices, though not always. The Bank of Canada signaled that it is going to keep low interest rates and quantitative easing going until inflation reaches the 2% target.

The Australian dollar was one of the weakest currencies last month, beating only the sterling. Besides risk aversion that was dragging riskier commodity currencies down, the Aussie had its own reasons to drop, like the fact that Australia experienced its first recession in three decades and the outlook for an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia perhaps as soon as in October. Recently, analysts decided that the RBA will likely not cut rates so soon but may do so in November. On a positive side, the labor market improved in August, while economists were expecting deterioration.

The New Zealand dollar fared far better even though the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled that it is preparing for implementing negative interest rates. Easing the coronavirus-related restrictions was one of the factors helping the currency.

Turkey's central bank surprised markets by hiking interest rates by a big number. But the rally of the Turkish lira, which followed the cut, did not last long.

Gold as well as other precious metals showed a very poor performance in September due to the strong US dollar. The yellow metal erased a large chunk of its losses by the end of the month, though, as the greenback was weakening.

Interest rate changes in September
Mexico 4.50% -0.25% 4.25%
Turkey 9.75% +2.00% 11.75%

You can see the current interest rates by the world's central banks in our interest rates table.

MetaTrader indicators

One new MetaTrader indicator has been added to EarnForex.com since the last issue of the newsletter:

You can always view the previously uploaded Forex indicators.

Forex brokers

Two new Forex brokers have been added to EarnForex.com since the last issue of the newsletter:

  • TradeATF — an offshore broker registered in Belize and aimed mainly on Latin America, but doing business globally. They offer MT4 accounts with up to 1:500 leverage and $100 minimum size.
  • BlackBull Markets — an offshore Forex broker that has recently also acquired New Zealand regulation. They offer MT4 trading platform with 1:500 maximum leverage and $200 minimum account size.

You can always view our full list of Forex brokers.

Top five Forex brokers of the last month

The top five Forex brokers, as reviewed by the visitors of EarnForex.com are the following:

  1. Olymp Trade — 10
  2. SimpleFX — 10
  3. World Forex — 10
  4. XBTFX — 10
  5. VPFX — 10

To qualify for a placement in this list, a Forex broker should have at least three valid reviews. Do not forget to review your favorite broker if you have not done so already.

Forex poll

One new poll has been posted in the EarnForex blog:

You can also browse the full list of Forex polls from EarnForex.com.

Forum

Top five hot topics on EarnForex Forum in September:

  1. Calculating maximum position size based on stop-loss and stop-out level
  2. Account Protector
  3. Position Size Calculator
  4. Universal Indicator EA - Expert Advisor for any indicator
  5. HOW DO YOU CONVERT MT4 INDICATORS TO MT5?
Forex industry news

There was the following important Forex industry news since the last issue of the newsletter:

  • CFTC sued Laino Group Limited (doing business as PaxForex) for accepting and soliciting orders from US residents without being properly registered. Consequently, the FBI seized PaxForex domain.
  • CFTC ordered Gain Capital Group (the parent company of Forex.com) for supervision failures related to the clients solicited by an independent IB.
  • AxiTrader has rebranded to Axi, and Core Liquidity Markets has rebranded to CLMarkets.
Until the next newsletter issue!

That is all for the October issue of the EarnForex.com newsletter. If you have questions, comments or just want to see something else in the next monthly issue, please let us know.


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