Tuesday, October 6, 2020

FX Strategy 06 Oct 2020

 
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FX Strategy 06 Oct 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NOK and GBP are the top gainers today, up 0.22% and 0.19% versus the dollar while AUD and NZD are the top losers, down -0.22% and -0.11% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.292, up 1.0bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.032, up 0.2bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.507, down -0.4bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.765, down -1.3bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading stronger today. The Hang Seng was trading at 23951.0, up 0.77%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23433.73, up 0.52%. The Kospi was trading at 2365.9, up 0.34%. In the European equities, indices were trading mixed today. The DAX 30 was trading at 12846.3, up 0.14%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3224.75, up 0.14%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5938.73, down -0.07%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the SP500 Futures was trading at 3395.5, up 0.07%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3216.0, up 0.06%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5907.8, down -0.25%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading stronger today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 39.58, up 0.92%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 41.64, up 0.85%.

 

In terms of economic data, we have already had Australian Balance of Trade for August (Actual A$2.643B v Forecast A$5B) plus the RBA Interest Rate Decision, as expected rates were kept at 0.25%. Earlier today we have also seen German Factory Orders MoM for August (Actual 4.5% v Forecast 2.3%) and Construction PMI data from the Euro Area, France, Germany, Italy and the UK. ECB's President Lagarde is speaking this morning from 08:35 GMT.

 

Looking forward to this afternoon, we start at 12:30 GMT with Canadian (Previous C$-2.4B v Forecast C$-2.1B) and US (Previous $-63B v Forecast $-66.5B) Balance of Trade for August. ECB's President Lagarde is again speaking at 13:00 GMT alongside the data release for the Russian Inflation Rate YoY for September (Previous 3.6% v Forecast 3.6%). US JOLT's Job Openings for August is then released at 14:00 GMT (Previous 6.618M v Consensus 6.685M). Fed Chair Powell, ECB's Lane, Fed's Harker and Fed's Kaplan are then speaking at 14:40 GMT, 15:30 GMT, 16:00 GMT and 22:00 GMT respectively and completes today's economic data releases.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1762 for 1.1819
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.1762 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.1819 enter at 1.1781. Below 1.1762 to open 1.1727

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.2958 for 1.305
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.2958 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.305 enter at 1.2988. Below 1.2958 to open 1.2924

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 105.42 for 105.93
Short-term view: USDJPY support comes in at 105.42 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 105.93 enter at 105.59. Below 105.42 to open 105.09

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7177 for 0.714
Short-term view: AUDUSD MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 0.7177 and we see a dip to 0.714 enter at 0.7165. Above 0.7177 to open 0.7197

 
 
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