Tuesday, September 29, 2020

FX Strategy 29 Sep 2020

 
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FX Strategy 29 Sep 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, AUD and GBP are the top gainers today, up 0.17% and 0.12% versus the dollar while NOK and JPY are the top losers, down -0.13% and -0.13% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.017, up 0.1bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.198, down -0.1bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.656, down -0.2bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.533, down -0.8bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23539.1, up 0.12%. The Kospi was trading at 2327.89, up 0.86%. The Hang Seng was trading at 23208.0, down -1.14%. In the European equities, indices were trading weaker today. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3207.29, down -0.49%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5908.7, down -0.32%. The DAX 30 was trading at 12786.05, down -0.66%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the SP500 Futures was trading at 3343.88, down -0.06%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3198.0, down -0.62%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5879.3, down -0.58%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading mixed today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 42.53, up 0.24%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 40.24, down -0.89%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, this morning we have already seen September Consumer Confidence from France (Actual 95 v Forecast 92). We have also had September data released from Spain with Retail Sales MoM (Actual 1.8% v Forecast -0.7%) and YoY (Actual -2.4% v Forecast -4.6%) alongside Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Actual 0.2% v Forecast 0.3%) and YoY Prel (Actual -0.4% v Forecast -0.2%). This morning at 08:30 GMT we expect UK Mortgage Approvals (Previous 66.3K v Forecast 69K) and Mortgage Lending (Previous £2.7B v Forecast £3.0B). Then at 09:00 GMT we look forward to Euro-Area Economic Sentiment (Previous 87.7 v Forecast 88.5). Bundesbank's Mauderer is then speaking at 10:00 GMT followed by Spanish Business Confidence at 10:30 GMT (Previous -9.8 v Forecast -14).

 

This afternoon at 12:30 GMT Canadian PPI data for August is released with MoM (Previous 0.7% v Forecast 0.2%) and YoY (Previous -2.3% v Forecast -2.3%) alongside US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv for August (Previous -0.3% v Forecast -0.2%). US CB Consumer Confidence for September is due at 14:00 GMT (Previous 84.8 v Forecast 88.5) with Fed's Williams speaking at 17:00 GMT.Later this evening we expect August data releases from Japan with Retail Sales MoM (Previous -3.3% v Forecast 0.2%) and YoY (Previous -2.8% v Forecast -2%).

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1653 for 1.1719
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.1653 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.1719 enter at 1.1675. Below 1.1653 to open 1.1627

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.2745 for 1.2924
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.2745 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.2924 enter at 1.2804. Below 1.2745 to open 1.2659

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 105.92 for 105.28
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 105.92 and we see a dip to 105.28 enter at 105.71. Above 105.92 to open 106.15

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7059 for 0.7104
Short-term view: AUDUSD support comes in at 0.7059 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 0.7104 enter at 0.7074. Below 0.7059 to open 0.7042

 
 
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