Monday, September 28, 2020

FX Strategy 28 Sep 2020

 
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FX Strategy 28 Sep 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, AUD and NOK are the top gainers today, up 0.26% and 0.21% versus the dollar while EUR and CAD are the top losers, down -0.05% and -0.03% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.016, up 1.1bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.664, up 0.8bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.524, up 0.1bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.19, flat 0.0bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading stronger today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23511.62, up 1.32%. The Hang Seng was trading at 23414.0, up 0.77%. The Kospi was trading at 2308.08, up 1.29%. In the European equities, indices were trading stronger today. The DAX 30 was trading at 12669.6, up 1.61%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5919.74, up 1.32%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3179.47, up 1.35%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5892.2, up 1.55%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3168.0, up 1.57%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3309.0, up 0.66%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading mixed today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 42.05, up 0.31%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 39.88, down -0.92%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, today we have South African PPI for August with MoM (Previous 1.2% v Forecast 0.7%) and YoY (Previous 1.9% v Forecast 2.1%) at 09:30 GMT, then we expect ECB's Schnabel who is speaking at 09:45 GMT. At 11:00 GMT there will be the release of Mexican data for August, with the Unemployment Rate for August (Currently 5.7%) and Balance of Trade (Previous $5.799B v Forecast $5.9B). The BCB Focus Market Readout will follow 11:30 GMT.

 

This afternoon we have two speakers at 13:30 GMT, ECB's Schnabel is speaking again alongside Bundesbank's Mauderer. ECB's President Lagarde is speaking slightly later at 13:45 GMT. US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for September follows at 14:30 GMT (Previous 8.0 v Forecast 5.0). Later in the session, Fed's Mester is speaking at 18:00 GMT, followed at 21:00 GMT with South Korean Business Confidence for September (Previous 66 v Forecast 61).

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.16 for 1.1673
Short-term view: EURUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.16 and we see a rise to 1.1673 enter at 1.1624. Below 1.16 to open 1.157

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.2746 for 1.2805
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.2746 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.2805 enter at 1.2765. Below 1.2746 to open 1.2687

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 105.77 for 105.04
Short-term view: USDJPY resistance comes in at 105.77 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 105.04 enter at 105.53. Above 105.77 to open 105.97

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7076 for 0.6995
Short-term view: AUDUSD MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 0.7076 and we see a dip to 0.6995 enter at 0.7049. Above 0.7076 to open 0.7122

 
 
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