Friday, September 25, 2020

FX Strategy 25 Sep 2020

 
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FX Strategy 25 Sep 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NZD and AUD are the top gainers today, up 0.46% and 0.28% versus the dollar while NOK and SEK are the top losers, down -0.23% and -0.08% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The US 10-year was trading at 0.669, up 0.1bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.007, up 0.1bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.51, down -0.4bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.203, down -0.7bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23204.62, up 0.51%. The Kospi was trading at 2278.79, up 0.27%. The Hang Seng was trading at 23218.0, down -0.4%. In the European equities, indices were trading weaker today. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5819.95, down -0.05%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3144.85, down -0.47%. The DAX 30 was trading at 12567.75, down -0.31%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the SP500 Futures was trading at 3240.62, up 0.08%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5795.0, down -0.03%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3136.0, down -0.35%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading stronger today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 42.02, up 0.19%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 40.36, up 0.12%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, we have already had UK Public Sector Net Borrowing data for August (Actual £-35.2B v Forecast £-34.4B) and August's PPI YoY for Spain (Actual -3.5B v Forecast -4.3B). Looking forward to the morning session, at 08:00 GMT we have September Italian data with Business Confidence (Previous 86.1 v Forecast 87.5) and Consumer Confidence (Previous 100.8 v Forecast 100.5). At 10:00 GMT we have French Unemployment Benefit Claims for August (Previous -172.2K v Forecast -36K) and Mexican Economic Activity YoY for July (Previous -13.2% v Forecast -9.5%) at 11:00 GMT.

 

Looking forward to the afternoon session, at 12:30 GMT we have US Durable Goods MoM (Previous 11.2% v Forecast 2%), US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transport MoM (Previous 2.4% v Forecast 1.2%) and US Durable Goods Orders ex Defence MoM (Previous 9.9% v Forecast 2.4%). Fed's Williams is also speaking twice today, firstly at 13:00 GMT and then again at 19:10 GMT.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1636 for 1.1696
Short-term view: EURUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.1636 and we see a rise to 1.1696 enter at 1.1656. Below 1.1636 to open 1.1601

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.2739 for 1.283
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.2739 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.283 enter at 1.2769. Below 1.2739 to open 1.2696

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 105.06 for 105.56
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 105.06 and we see a rise to 105.56 enter at 105.22. Below 105.06 to open 104.91

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7082 for 0.7049
Short-term view: AUDUSD MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 0.7082 and we see a dip to 0.7049 enter at 0.7071. Above 0.7082 to open 0.7118

 
 
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