Friday, September 11, 2020

FX Strategy 11 Sep 2020

 
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FX Strategy 11 Sep 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NOK and AUD are the top gainers today, up 0.47% and 0.36% versus the dollar while USD and JPY are the top losers. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The US 10-year was trading at 0.684, up 0.2bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.022, flat 0.0bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.467, down -2.7bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.194, down -4.4bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading stronger today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23406.49, up 0.74%. The Hang Seng was trading at 24477.0, up 0.67%. The Kospi was trading at 2396.69, up 0.01%. In the European equities, indices were trading mixed today. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6007.65, up 0.07%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3310.25, down -0.08%. The DAX 30 was trading at 13190.85, down -0.14%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the SP500 Futures was trading at 3366.88, up 0.79%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 6011.5, down -0.06%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3307.0, down -0.24%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weaker today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 37.19, down -0.29%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 39.86, down -0.5%.

 

This morning we have already seen German August data, with Wholesale Prices YoY (Actual -2.2% v Forecast -2%), MoM (Actual -0.4% v Previous 0.5%) and Inflation Rate YoY Final (Actual 0.0% v Forecast 0.0%) and MoM Final (Actual -0.1% v Forecast -0.1%). We have also seen UK July data with Balance of Trade (Actual £1.1B v Forecast £1.2B), Construction Output YoY (Actual -12.8% v Forecast -18%), Industrial Production YoY (Actual -7.8% v Forecast -8.7%), Manufacturing Production YoY (Actual -9.4% v Forecast -10.8%) and GDP MoM (Actual 6.6% v Forecast 6.3%).

 

This morning we look forward to ECB's Schnabel and Bundesbank's Weidmann who are speaking at 08:50 GMT and 09:00 GMT respectively. ECB's Lane is speaking at 12:00 GMT also.

 

Moving into the afternoon session, we have August US data releases, with Inflation Rate YoY (Previous 1% v Forecast 1.1%), MoM (Previous 0.6% v Forecast 0.2%), Core Inflation Rate YoY (Previous 1.6% v Forecast 1.5%) and MoM (Previous 0.6% v Forecast 0.2%). This evening at 18:00 GMT the US Monthly Budget Statement for August is also released.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.1888 for 1.177
Short-term view: EURUSD MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 1.1888 and we see a dip to 1.177 enter at 1.1849. Above 1.1888 to open 1.1961

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.2872 for 1.2708
Short-term view: GBPUSD resistance comes in at 1.2872 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.2708 enter at 1.2828. Above 1.2872 to open 1.2971

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 105.97 for 106.46
Short-term view: USDJPY support comes in at 105.97 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 106.46 enter at 106.13. Below 105.97 to open 105.82

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7306 for 0.7229
Short-term view: AUDUSD MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 0.7306 and we see a dip to 0.7229 enter at 0.7285. Above 0.7306 to open 0.7354

 
 
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