Tuesday, August 18, 2020

FX Strategy 18 Aug 2020

 
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FX Strategy 18 Aug 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, JPY and AUD are the top gainers today, up 0.55% and 0.52% versus the dollar while USD and SEK are the top losers. In the rates market, global yields were trading weak today. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.04, down -0.6bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.214, down -2.9bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.452, down -3.3bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.669, down -4.0bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Hang Seng was trading at 25347.34, up 0.65%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23096.75, down -0.83%. In the European equities, indices were trading firm today. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6127.44, up 0.61%. The DAX 30 was trading at 12920.66, up 0.15%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3305.85, up 0.02%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, FTSE100 Futures was trading at 6115.3, up 0.57%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3378.88, up 0.52%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3304.0, flat 0.0%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading stronger today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 42.48, up 1.12%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 45.07, up 0.6%.

 

Today we have already had the RMBA Meeting Minutes that were released at 01:30 GMT. This morning we are relatively light on economic data releases with only ECB's Guindos and Fed's Brainard speaking both at 08:00 GMT. Moving into the afternoon session, we have July US data with Housing Starts MoM for July (Previous 17.3% v Forecast 2.3%) and Building Permits MoM (Previous 3.5% v Forecast 2.8%) at 12:30 GMT. PPI MoM and YoY releases from Russia follow at 13:00 GMT.

 

Later this evening we have Japan Balance of Trade (Previous YEN268.8B v Forecast YEN-120B) for July, Exports YoY (Previous -26.2% v Consensus -21%) and Imports YoY (Previous -14.4% v Consensus -22.8%) for July also. We will also have Machinery Orders MoM (Previous 1.7% v Forecast 2.5%) and Machinery Orders YoY (Previous -16.3% v Forecast -17%) for June, all being released at 23:50 GMT.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1825 for 1.1894
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.1825 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.1894 enter at 1.1848. Below 1.1825 to open 1.1799

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.3136 for 1.3042
Short-term view: GBPUSD MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 1.3136 and we see a dip to 1.3042 enter at 1.3105. Above 1.3136 to open 1.3187

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 106.34 for 105.73
Short-term view: USDJPY resistance comes in at 106.34 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 105.73 enter at 106.14. Above 106.34 to open 106.69

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7188 for 0.7232
Short-term view: AUDUSD support comes in at 0.7188 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 0.7232 enter at 0.7203. Below 0.7188 to open 0.716

 
 
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