Saturday, December 28, 2024

Trump lets Johnson twist in the wind

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By Katherine Tully-McManus

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

BREAKING OVERNIGHT — “Putin Apologizes but Stops Short of Taking Responsibility for Kazakhstan Crash,” by NYT’s Anatoly Kurmanaev: “The statement stopped short of attributing the crash to a Russian air-defense missile, a cause that investigators in Azerbaijan have focused on.”

MINNESOTA BLUNT— “Dean Phillips Was Right About Joe Biden. He Finds It ‘Awfully Unsatisfying,’” by Nicholas Wu for POLITICO Magazine: “[T]he retiring Minnesota Democrat said he wished he had been more successful at fixing what he says is a deeply broken Congress and that he could have delivered more for his constituents. And he made clear he was leaving Capitol Hill extraordinarily frustrated with his party. ‘We are totally devoid of leadership. We are rudderless,’ he said.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) looks on during a ceremony.

Speaker Mike Johnson has reason to be nervous that Donald Trump is letting the questions about his future swirl and possibly grow some legs. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

DROP THE MIKE? — Here’s a few of the subjects DONALD TRUMP has weighed in upon this past week: seizing the Panama Canal, the anniversary of his namesake tax cuts, SEAN HANNITY’s engagement and electing WAYNE GRETZKY the next Canadian prime minister.

One thing Trump has not posted about: electing MIKE JOHNSON as speaker of the House.

A week has now passed since Congress cleared a government funding bill that ignored Trump's central demand of Johnson — a debt ceiling increase. And with just six days until the House votes on the next speaker, Trump has been conspicuously silent on Johnson’s fate.

Why does that matter? Because a host of MAGA voices have filled the void to suggest that Johnson isn’t the right leader for the House GOP. It’s not just the debt-ceiling faceplant. It’s also the deal Johnson cut with Democrats (and later withdrew) that sent ELON MUSK and many other Trump allies into a rage.

Rep. THOMAS MASSIE, the Kentucky Republican who has already declared he won’t be voting for Johnson as speaker on Jan. 3, continues to stoke opposition online. Rep. ANDY HARRIS (R-Md.), the House Freedom Caucus chair, openly questioned Johnson’s leadership i n interviews this week.

And yesterday, a former HFC chair — Rep. SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.) — also said on Fox Business he’s “keeping [his] options open” but also gave voice to the reality of contemporary Republican politics.

“I'll tell you the one that might be able to make the difference is, quite honestly, President Trump,” Perry said. “Whoever the president backs is likely to be the speaker, regardless.”

So how to interpret Trump's silence? If Johnson is feeling optimistic, he can lean on the fact that Trump has backed him for months and if he truly wanted a change to House leadership he might have said so at any time. (Or he might have sent another message, like not inviting Johnson on a whirlwind post-election weekend or to his box at the Army-Navy football game earlier this month.)

But real students of the former “Apprentice” star know that in real life, he rarely says, “You're fired.”

Trump’s more common M.O., at least in his political life, is to let allies who have lost his favor twist in the wind until they quit of their own accord — and then slam the door behind them. (Just ask the likes of, say, REX TILLERSON and JIM MATTIS.)

So with no public show of confidence, Johnson has reason to be nervous that Trump is letting the questions about Johnson's future swirl and possibly grow some legs. A week could end up being a long time to wait if the speaker’s MAGA skeptics continue beating the drums for a possible handover of the gavel.

There is another, potentially more likely scenario at play: Trump might just enjoy the drama.

It’s a dynamic that Johnson is more than familiar with. He’s learned better than most that Trump loves to chime in late in the game. Like when a deal is already negotiated, but still fragile — as it was last week. Or when it's easy to back the winner — after they've already won.

That’s what happened earlier this year when Johnson faced an ouster bid from a fierce Trump ally, Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.). Only after Johnson fended off the effort (with Democratic help) did Trump publicly weigh in: “Mike Johnson is a good man who is trying very hard.”

This time, there’s much more at stake: Another drawn out speakership fight wouldn’t just paralyze the House, but also certification of Trump’s presidential victory and action on his governing agenda.

So don’t be surprised if Trump ultimately weighs in on Johnson’s behalf — just not on Johnson’s preferred timeline.

MORE THINGS TO KEEP AN EYE ON … 

The Mar-a-Lago check-in desk: Johnson touts his frequent communication with Trump, but we’ll be watching to see if he stops by Mar-a-Lago to make an in-person case to the president-elect. Johnson’s office did not respond to questions about any potential plans for the speaker to meet with Trump in the coming days. Trump’s team also did not respond to a request for comment on the speaker race or any plans for a meeting.

The brutal math: With Massie a firm no, any further GOP defections could put Johnson in jeopardy. Republicans are expected to have a 219-215 majority on Jan. 3, assuming former Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) sticks to his plan to skip the swearing-in. And he’s got to worry that a Trump endorsement won’t be a panacea for his political ills: Last week, 38 Republicans ignored Trump’s backing of a spending stopgap that included a debt-ceiling hike.

Team Johnson: Johnson has been largely out of sight over the past week, posting a Christmas message and voicing his support for KASH PATEL’s FBI director nomination on his X account. Some of Johnson supporters have done TV hits touting Johnson’s successes in tough circumstances and warning against the chaos of a speaker fight. We’ll see if that effort crescendos next week.

The rest of the Freedom Caucus: While the current and former HFC chairs are sowing doubt about Johnson, they aren’t outright opposing him — just staying uncommitted enough to make the speaker sweat. Watch to see if any in their ranks start making particular demands of Johnson, thus opening the same Pandora's box of promises that ultimately led to predecessor KEVIN McCARTHY’s demise.

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop me a line: ktullymcmanus@politico.com.

 

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SPEAKING OF THE DEBT CEILING — Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN issued her periodic update on the federal borrowing limit to congressional leaders yesterday, projecting it would hit “between January 14 and January 23,” per Michael Stratford. But that date isn’t the same as the infamous “X-date” — when Treasury’s “extraordinary measures” are depleted and an actual federal default occurs.

“Yellen did not say in her letter how long those extraordinary measures and Treasury’s cash reserves would forestall a default,” Stratford writes. “But in the past, it has been at least several months. Some outside estimates have projected that so-called X-date — when the government runs out of cash to cover its obligations — would not occur until sometime in the summer.”

Said Yellen: “I respectfully urge Congress to act to protect the full faith and credit of the United States.”

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

President JOE BIDEN and VP KAMALA HARRIS have nothing on their public schedules.

 

You read POLITICO for trusted reporting. Now follow every twist of the lame duck session with Inside Congress. We track the committee meetings, hallway conversations, and leadership signals that show where crucial year-end deals are heading. Subscribe now.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

The TikTok Inc. building is seen.

Donald Trump yesterday asked the Supreme Court to delay the federal law forcing the sale or closure of TikTok. | Damian Dovarganes/AP

1. TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK: Trump yesterday asked the Supreme Court to delay the federal law forcing the sale or closure of the massively popular Chinese-owned social video app, saying he wanted time to pursue a “political resolution” to the debate over its future, AP’s Haleluya Hadero and Michelle Price report: “Trump has reversed his position on the popular app, having tried to ban it during his first term in office over national security concerns. … The filings Friday come ahead of oral arguments scheduled for Jan. 10 on whether [the ban] unlawfully restricts speech in violation of the First Amendment.”

Inside the brief: “‘President Trump alone possesses the consummate dealmaking expertise, the electoral mandate, and the political will to negotiate a resolution to save the platform while addressing the national security concerns expressed by the government,’ [Trump] wrote in an amicus brief,” Brendan Bordelon writes. “The president-elect was by far the most high-profile person to weigh in on Friday, the deadline for interested parties to submit briefs to the Supreme Court as it prepares to decide the constitutionality of the law to force the sale of TikTok.”

C-suite diplomacy: “The incoming president has sent mixed signals in the past about his views on TikTok but most recently vowed to ‘save’ the platform. Trump met with TikTok’s CEO SHOU CHEW earlier this month. … Chew also spoke with Trump on Friday evening after the incoming president asked the high court to pause the ban, two people familiar with the matter told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins.”

2. HINDSIGHT IS 20/20: As Biden wraps up the final weeks of his presidency, WaPo’s Tyler Pager reports how the outgoing president has been reflecting on some of his choices during his tenure: “Biden has taken to acknowledging some strategic mistakes, both big and small. … Many of his missteps resulted from his determination to restore the age-old rules of the American presidency after Trump’s term, a determination that many of his supporters, in retrospect, consider a politically fatal error.”

Some notable reflections … “Earlier this month, in a speech on his economic legacy, Biden admitted he was “stupid’ for not putting his own name on the pandemic relief … Biden acknowledged that he had ‘screwed up’ in his June 27 debate against Trump … In private, Biden has also said he should have picked someone other than MERRICK GARLAND as attorney general, complaining about the Justice Department’s slowness under Garland in prosecuting Trump.”

3. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: The incoming administration is inheriting a troubled relationship with China — and to make matters more complex, analysts and officials believe the channels of communication with Beijing opened up by the Biden administration aren’t going to last in Trump’s White House, WSJ’s Lingling Wei reports: “Chinese officials have repeatedly tried and failed to get access to Trump’s inner circle,” ahead of his return to office. Instead of going through the traditional diplomatic channels to reach Beijing, Trump’s team “have indicated to the Chinese side that they would like to interact directly with [Chinese President XI JINPING’s] top aides—particularly CAI QI, the leader’s chief of staff … Such a proposition is a sharp departure from established ways of interacting, and one Beijing isn’t ready to accept.”

Related reads: “Forget Beijing — The House China committee is up against Trump and Elon Musk,” by Phelim Kine and Robbie Gramer … “Chinese hackers used broad telco access to geolocate millions of Americans and record phone calls,” by Rosie Perper

4. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: While Israel and Hamas trade blame over the stalemate in cease-fire talks, the White House reiterated yesterday that they believe an agreement is still achievable in Biden’s final days as president, Eric Bazail-Eimil reports. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters yesterday that the White House will try “as hard as we can to try to get a cease-fire deal in place before we leave office,” adding that talks are becoming mired in the particulars. “It is because of Hamas throwing up obstacles or refusing to move on any of these details that we are still not at a conclusion,” Kirby said.

But Israeli and U.S. officials speaking to Axios’ Barak Ravid aren’t so optimistic, calling chances of a pre-Jan. 20 deal “slim” even after Trump said there would be “hell to pay in the Middle East” if hostages aren’t released by then: “While some progress was made in Doha last week, fundamental issues are unresolved, such as whether any deal would involve an end to the war and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. One Israeli official said the negotiations did not explode but are stuck, with both parties wanting to break the logjam but unwilling to make major concessions.”

On the ground: “As Hopes Rise for Gaza Cease-Fire, Conditions There Have Worsened,” by NYT’s Aryn Baker and Abu Bakr Bashir

 

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5. WHISTLING A NEW THUNE: Incoming Senate Majority Leader JOHN THUNE has a big job ahead as he “seeks to marshal the GOP’s 53 Republicans behind the unpredictable leader in the White House,” WSJ’s Molly Ball writes in a new profile. First on his agenda is to approve Trump’s cabinet nominees: “Thune has struck an enthusiastic note, but also has been careful not to make any promises about the outcome. ‘He’s got some people, obviously, that will be more challenging and more difficult than others,’ he said. ‘But we’ll work with him to give him a fair process.’”

On pondering retirement … “It’s different than when I came into politics. That landscape, that environment, had changed in ways that probably weren’t the best suited to my style,” Thune said. “I thought about the possibility of having a shot at serving as leader … and I just felt like I should at least stay around long enough to see if that was a possibility.”

On his plan to legislate … “Thune said he sees [reconciliation] as the best way to ‘get some things done that the president and many of our candidates campaigned on’ … ‘I’m somebody from the prairie, the president’s a New Yorker. Stylistically they’re very different,’ Thune said. ‘But I think what you have to be able to do is figure out what the objectives are and if the incentives are aligned. I think we all want to get to the same place.’”

6. PEDALING INTO THE SUNSET: Congress’ unofficial “cannabis czar,” Rep. EARL BLUMENAUER (D-Ore.), is leaving Capitol Hill, creating “an uncertainty about who will fill the void on cannabis policy” right as significant changes to federal drug regulations could be in the works, Natalie Fertig reports in a dishy exit interview: “On his last day in Washington, D.C. before retiring from Congress, Blumenauer sat at a table by a big picture window in Bullfeathers, a favorite Capitol Hill watering hole. … ‘I thought it wouldn’t be this hard, take this long,’ he said about federal legalization. Despite the immense ideological strides on the Hill during Blumenauer’s tenure, there are only a few legislative wins. But he has no regrets.”

7. THE BLACK GOLD RUSH: “U.S. Shale Is Growing Old. That’s a Problem for Donald Trump’s Oil Plans,” by WSJ’s Benoît Morenne: “Wildcatters are mostly gone, replaced by more disciplined oil giants. … Meanwhile, production in most U.S. crude regions is set to decline as fields mature and sweet spots dwindle. … What this means: The oil patch is unlikely to see the kind of breakneck growth it saw in Trump’s first term, when daily crude production shot up from about nine million barrels to roughly 13 million.”

8. MEDIAWATCH: “NPR and PBS Stations Brace for Funding Battle Under Trump,” by NYT’s Benjamin Mullin and Kate Conger: “Elon Musk is gunning for public media. … NPR and PBS stations are bracing for the fight. After the election, leaders of NPR’s biggest member stations circulated a report that warned ‘it would be unwise to assume that events will play out as they have in the past,’ with regard to their federal funding.”

9. OH CANADA: “Trudeau’s top ministers at Mar-a-Lago to discuss border security,” by Mickey Djuric: “[Canadian] Finance Minister DOMINIC LeBLANC and Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY arrived Thursday in Palm Beach … They met with Commerce Secretary nominee HOWARD LUTNICK and Interior Department nominee DOUG BURGUM, as a follow-up to the dinner between the prime minister and Trump last month.” The meeting comes as Canadian PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU faces pressure “to step down as leader of the Liberal Party before Parliament returns days after Trump is inaugurated.”

 

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CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 17 funnies

Cartoon

Matt Wuerker

GREAT WEEKEND READS:

“How Putin Tapped a Well of Ethnic Hatred in Russia,” by The Atlantic’s Anna Nemtsova: “How did radical nationalists so fully infiltrate Russia’s police and politics?”

“The Toll of Cities’ Homeless Sweeps,” by ProPublica’s Asia Fields, Nicole Santa Cruz, Ruth Talbot and Maya Miller: “A record number of Americans are living outside. Cities have responded by removing encampments from public spaces, a practice commonly referred to as ‘sweeps.’”

“He knew of sex abuse allegations on campus. Now he’s university president,” by POLITICO’s Dustin Racioppi: “Monsignor Joseph Reilly was elevated to the top position at Seton Hall just three years after stepping back from leadership.”

“Indian boarding school deaths, burial sites far exceed U.S. government counts,” by WaPo’s Dana Hedgpeth, Sari Horwitz, Joyce Sohyun Lee, Andrew Ba Tran, Nilo Tabrizy and Jahi Chikwendi: “The Washington Post has found more than three times as many deaths as the U.S. government documented in its investigation of Indian boarding schools.”

“In Bomb-Scarred Cities, Risking Life and Limb to Get Civilians to Safety,” by NYT’s Tyler Hicks and Gaëlle Girbes: “The danger and hardship gets worse by the day for civilians in eastern Ukraine. Still, they resist leaving the places that have become their homes.”

“Clinging to compassion,” by WaPo’s Ruby Cramer: “In deep-red Arizona, ‘a genuinely good person’ tries not to surrender to anger and resentment.”

“Are We Rolling the Dice on Bird Flu?” by Choire Sicha for NY Mag: “We may be more equipped for another pandemic than you think. Still, cross your fingers.”

“Interpol Under Spotlight in Suspected Asylum-for-Sale Scam,” by Bloomberg’s Hugo Miller and Irina Vilcu: “A ploy that allegedly helped suspected criminals has exposed a dangerous vulnerability at the world’s crimefighting agency.”

— “He’s becoming an American soldier. First he must become a U.S. citizen,” by WaPo’s Missy Ryan and Greg Jaffe: “Sebastián Villaorduña, new to the United States from Peru, joined a military mired in a historic recruiting crisis and desperate for people just like him.”

PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — “Leading Conservative Lawyer, Touted by Trump, David Rivkin Has Died,” by Bloomberg’s Meghan Tribe: “Trump posted on Truth Social announcing Rivkin’s passing on Friday. ‘He was a great lawyer, scholar, and defender of mine,’ Trump wrote. ‘He will be greatly missed!’ … Rivkin held several positions in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations, including posts in the White House Counsel’s office and Office of the Vice President. … He also spent many years in Big Law.”

“Friedrich St. Florian, designer of World War II Memorial, dies at 91,” by WaPo’s Harrison Smith: “A dapper, soft-spoken architect who spent much of his career in academia, Mr. St. Florian was in some ways an unlikely architect of the World War II Memorial … Guided by a belief that ‘wars must be remembered, not glorified,’ Mr. St. Florian entered a national design contest for the site in 1996, with a proposal that featured a pair of rose-covered berms and curved colonnades surrounding the Rainbow Pool.”

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Sade Stanback, chief administrator at Enterprise Community Partners, and David Pittman, director of comms and regulatory affairs at the National Association of Accountable Care Organizations and a POLITICO alum, welcomed Aria Connie Pittman yesterday. She came in at 7 lbs and 1.5 oz.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. August Pfluger (R-Texas) and Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.) … NBC’s Sahil Kapur … AP’s Josh Boak … The White House’s Jake Levine Steve Castor of the House Judiciary Committee … Roll Call’s John Bennett … POLITICO’s Zach Montellaro, Han Ah-Sue, Ben Fox, Tom Frank, Shelby Webb and Erica MartinsonSusanna QuinnKevin Boyd … DOT’s Mackenzie PraytorEmil Henry Maria OlsonSeth Wimer of Brandywine Public Affairs … Shari Yost GoldDebbie WillhiteD.J. Jordan … former Reps. Spencer Bachus (R-Ala.) and Jim McDermott (D-Wash.) … Christina SevillaJacqui Bassermann of the American Red Cross … Clara Brillembourg of Foley Hoag … Christa RobinsonMichael TrujilloGabrielle Wanneh … former CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger … former Arkansas Gov. Mike BeebeMelissa Block Ed McFadden

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) … Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). Panel: Cal Thomas, Francesca Chambers, Stef Kight and Philippe Reines. Sunday special: Hanukkah at the Museum of the Bible.

NBC “Meet the Press”: special edition airing “Meet the Moment” snippets from throughout the year.

MSNBC “The Weekend”: David Hogg … North Carolina Supreme Court Associate Justice Allison Riggs.

MSNBC “Inside with Jen Psaki”: Martin O’Malley.

MSNBC “The Sunday Show”: Tia Mitchell … Melanie Campbell … Brandon Wolf … Corinne Perkins.

CBS “Face the Nation”: David Rubenstein … Leana Wen … Aditya Bhave.

ABC “This Week”: Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) … Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.). Panel: Donna Brazile, Rick Klein, Rachael Bade and Sarah Isgur.

CNN “State of the Union”: Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) … New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. Panel: Bakari Sellers, Scott Jennings, Karen Finney and Kristen Soltis Anderson.

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