It's been yet another great year for the Communiqué model portfolios. As the year winds down, we're sitting on gains of as much as 114% and 122% in our Oxford Trading Portfolio, 319% and 389% in our Ten-Baggers of Tomorrow Portfolio, 748% and 812% in our Gone Fishin' Portfolio, and 648% and 927% in our Oxford All-Star Portfolio. I foresee another great year ahead in 2025... but with a twist. In 2024, we've enjoyed dozens of realized and unrealized gains, primarily in large cap technology shares. I expect technology - a major source of competitive advantage in every industry today - to continue to do well in 2025. But the biggest gains should come from small firms - and particularly those that will profit the most from the incoming Trump administration and its deregulatory policies. This month, we'll focus on a company that is upgrading, expanding, and repairing the nation's aging power grid. The firm will save millions of dollars in reduced compliance costs, faster project timelines, and increased U.S. manufacturing activity. Top-line growth is already on fire. Sales are growing at a 60% annual rate. The firm's order backlog is 1.5 times its trailing 12-month revenue. And I expect earnings to soar at least 50% higher in 2025. For all these reasons, this stock is the newest addition to our Oxford Trading Portfolio. Sights Set on Small Caps Before we look ahead to 2025, it seems only fair to look back and see what we were predicting a year ago. In that Forecast Issue, I focused on "Eight Megatrends for 2024 and Beyond" that would give us multiple ways to profit in the months and years ahead. Those megatrends were artificial intelligence, genomics, embedded intelligence, robotics, edge computing, renewable energy, cybersecurity, and smart agriculture. These are all areas where we will continue to invest in the future. After all, we've gotten off to a promising start. In addition to all the double- and triple-digit gains we're currently sitting on in the Oxford Trading Portfolio, we locked in profits this year of 19% in Cameco, 24% in Applied Materials, 26% in Teradyne, 48% in Lyft, 53% in Permian Resources, 47% in Merck, and 122% in Novo Nordisk. We had some losses too, of course. But we had far more winners than losers. And our gains were much bigger than our losses. Our profit in Novo Nordisk alone, for example, was twice as big as all the losses in the portfolio this year - combined! I expect 2025 to be another banner year for us... especially with our new concentration on smaller companies. Why should small caps outperform in 2025? For starters, the valuation gap between small and large cap stocks has reached historic levels. You might think this is due to weak fundamentals in small caps. But that's not the case at all. Over the past few years, as investors piled into large cap and even megacap companies - like the so-called Magnificent Seven - the price-to-earnings multiples on these stocks soared, along with their share prices. But markets are cyclical. And small companies - which are also growing rapidly - are likely to play catch-up, driving their share prices dramatically higher in 2025. Big corporations also tend to be multinationals that derive a significant percentage of their sales and earnings from overseas operations. Small companies, by comparison, are more domestically oriented and therefore less affected by weak overseas growth. They are also less likely to be hurt by trade wars that might result from Trump's planned tariffs. Equity markets have already broadened since the election, with small caps outperforming large caps. And this trend should continue in 2025. Not only do I expect the small cap Russell 2000 to substantially outperform the large cap S&P 500, but individual small companies - as the biggest beneficiaries of the new Trump administration's policies - should outperform both indexes. That's why I'm particularly bullish on this month's recommendation. If you'd like to see Alex's pick for this month, go here to learn how to join The Oxford Communiqué. Good investing, Alex |
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