| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Nahal Toosi | |  Administration officials are weighing plans to declare the atrocities in Sudan as a genocide and issue a raft of new sanctions on a Sudanese militia vying for power in the war, officials familiar with the matter tell NatSec Daily. | Luis Tato/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Paul McLeary, Phelim Kine, Connor O’Brien and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The Biden administration is launching an eleventh-hour push to address the devastating civil war in Sudan that has spiraled into one of the world’s worst ongoing humanitarian crises. Administration officials are weighing plans to declare the atrocities in Sudan as a genocide and issue a raft of new sanctions on a Sudanese militia vying for power in the war, four current and former officials familiar with the matter tell NatSec Daily. This includes sanctions on the chief of the so-called Rapid Support Forces militia, MOHAMED HAMDAN “HEMEDTI” DAGALO and other RSF enterprises. The United States has accused both the Sudanese armed forces and RSF of war crimes, and accused the RSF of ethnic cleansing. Other officials and experts outside the administration are pushing for the Biden team to appoint a senior career U.S. Agency for International Development official to oversee the continued flow of U.S. and international aid into the war-stricken country as Washington prepares for a change of power between JOE BIDEN and DONALD TRUMP’s administrations. These officials were granted anonymity to discuss internal policy deliberations freely. The push comes as Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN travels to New York on Thursday for a high-level U.N. meeting on Sudan. Ahead of the U.N. meeting, U.S. officials pushed to establish new humanitarian corridors into hard-hit areas of Sudan, including Khartoum, the country’s capital. Taken together, these measures reflect a final push by the Biden team to nudge forward progress on ending the Sudanese civil war after multiple rounds of failed peace talks and mounting pressure from U.S. lawmakers and humanitarian groups to do more during their final month in office. Though it receives a fraction of the public attention or humanitarian relief funding that the wars in the Middle East or Ukraine get, the conflict in Sudan has pushed millions of people to the brink of famine. It has also become a geopolitical powder keg, with foreign powers including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, the UAE and Russia all vying for influence among the warring parties while prolonging and worsening the war. The Biden administration has faced sharp criticism from lawmakers like Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the incoming chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, for not yet doing enough to hold the drivers of the Sudanese civil war accountable. Human rights organizations have rebuked the Biden administration for not publicly holding to account the United Arab Emirates for its role in the conflict as well. The UAE, a key U.S. partner in the Middle East, has been widely accused of funding and arming the RSF as it carries out a campaign of mass murder and rape across Sudan. “The United States needs to do more. And the UAE needs to stop fueling the fire there,” Sen. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.), the outgoing chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told NatSec Daily. CAMERON HUDSON, an expert on U.S.-Africa ties with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said any final acts by the Biden administration on Sudan could “free Trump from having to make those decisions” and empower lawmakers who focus on the conflict to “use this as fuel to keep pushing Trump to continue U.S. leadership on Sudan.” “Any momentum that can come from this is a good thing if it can carry over into the next administration,” he said. A genocide or renewed atrocities determination is seen as an important political tool to mobilize the international community’s attention to a crisis. Two officials said the State Department was still deliberating on a genocide declaration, which requires intense internal legal and technical reviews, and it remains unclear whether Blinken would endorse such a measure. U.N. experts have already warned that the conflict in Sudan increasingly resembles genocide. The State Department declined to comment specifically on the matter, saying it doesn’t publicly discuss sanctions or new determinations in advance. It said it is pushing for an immediate cessation of hostilities and the opening of humanitarian corridors into Sudan to reach the country’s most vulnerable civilians. The White House National Security Council declined to comment.
| | | MORE NUKES FOR CHINA: China appears likely to have 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2030, the Pentagon says, our own PAUL MCLEARY reports. The communist-led country and U.S. rival has added at least 100 nuclear warheads to its stockpile over the past year and now has more than 600 in its inventory. The figures are contained in an annual report the Pentagon sends to Congress about Beijing’s military ambitions. The numbers could raise the already high pressure on U.S. officials to push Beijing to engage in arms control talks. The Biden administration persuaded China to commence a dialogue on nuclear nonproliferation last year, but Beijing suspended those talks in July in response to a U.S. arms sale to Taiwan. A Defense Department official who briefed reporters on the data said China appears to have a wider focus on developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles “in numbers and greater survivability to improve their nuclear-capable missile forces.” Beijing also is “showing some interest in developing a new conventional ICBM that could strike Hawaii, Alaska and the continental United States.” UNDERSEA CABLE GUYS: The Department of Homeland Security rolled out a plan today aimed at bolstering the security of undersea telecommunication cables, which are vulnerable to attack by China and Russia, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. DHS and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency hope to boost the security of the undersea cable network through measures including improving communication between relevant government agencies and the private firms that own those cables. The goal is to create a mechanism that will allow the government to work with those firms “to secure and repair subsea cable systems in a variety of crises,” CHRISTA BRZOZOWSKI, assistant secretary for trade and economic security, said at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event. Concerns about the safety of undersea cables are growing worldwide. A task force of Danish, Swedish and Lithuanian investigators is probing the potential deliberate cutting of two undersea fiber-optic cables last month by the Chinese cargo vessel Yi Peng 3. ‘TICKING TIME BOMB’: The turbulence in Syria has prompted fears that thousands of detained Islamic State fighters and their families could break out of makeshift prisons in the country, Robbie and Paul report. The detainees are being watched over by U.S.-backed Kurdish forces. The prisons were supposed to be temporary, but the fighters’ home countries have refused to take them back. The collapse of the Syrian regime, and Turkey’s subsequent attacks on the Kurdish forces, are fueling concerns that the security around the detention centers could fray, allowing an outbreak. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130 | | TENSE ABOUT TULSI: Eight Republican senators aren’t sure if they can support TULSI GABBARD for the role of director of national intelligence, ANDREA SHALAL and GRAM SLATTERY of Reuters report, citing unnamed sources including people in Trump’s orbit. The former congressmember from Hawaii apparently struggled to answer some difficult questions during meetings on the Hill. There also are concerns about her lack of experience for the job, as well as her connections with fallen Syrian dictator BASHAR AL-ASSAD. Gabbard’s nomination has been troubled from the start due to some of her past positions, including skepticism about Assad’s crimes and alleged echoing of Russian propaganda. But Trump has yet to indicate whether he’ll withdraw his support for her.
| | DOUBTING THE ROUTER: U.S. officials are investigating a popular Chinese-made home internet router and may ban it over national security concerns, The Wall Street Journal’s HEATHER SOMERVILLE, DUSTIN VOLZ AND ARUNA VISWANATHA report. The Defense, Commerce and Justice Departments are among those looking into TP-Link. The device is a bestseller with some 65 percent of the American router market for homes and small businesses; the Defense Department and other federal agencies also use it. A decision on a ban will likely fall to the incoming Trump administration.
| | | THE MOD QUAD: Coast guard forces of the Quad nations — the U.S., Japan, Australia and India — plan to hold their first joint training exercise next month, Nikkei-Asia reported Wednesday, citing unnamed Japanese Foreign Ministry officials. The exercises are set to occur in waters around Japan and are expected to be followed in March by joint exercises of U.S., Japanese and Philippine naval forces. While officials rarely openly say so, such exercises are meant to send a reminder to China that the U.S. and its allies are increasingly coordinating and remain wary of Beijing’s maritime maneuvers.
| | NDAA ON ITS WAY: Annual defense policy legislation is headed to Biden’s desk after the Senate approved that measure in a wide bipartisan vote today, despite concerns over language that restricts gender-affirming care for transgender youth, our colleague CONNOR O'BRIEN reports (for Pros!). The 85-14 vote contrasted with the House last week, where most Democrats opposed the compromise bill over the GOP-backed provision. The National Defense Authorization Act is also one of the few major bills, along with a stopgap to keep the government open into the new year, likely to clear before Trump's return to office. GOP negotiators dropped a variety of culture war fights on Pentagon policies, including issues related to diversity and inclusion and abortion, which Trump could address head-on without Congress. And Trump will also inherit a debate over whether to boost the defense budget beyond the $895 billion lawmakers endorsed in the NDAA. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — TACKLING VIOLENCE IN WESTERN HEMISPHERE: Sens. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) and THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) are introducing legislation to target the root causes of gender-based violence, including femicide, sex trafficking and labor trafficking in the Western Hemisphere, according to an advanced copy of the bill obtained by NatSec Daily. Gender-based violence is a major challenge in the Western Hemisphere. Kaine and Tillis’ bill is aimed at boosting support for U.S. foreign assistance and diplomatic programs in the region. This includes strengthening the State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development’s collaboration with these governments’ law enforcement agencies, and boosting U.S. funding to the United Nations trust fund to end violence against women. | | | FORMER DIPLOMAT SPEAKS OUT: MIKE CASEY has lashed out at U.S. Middle East policy after resigning from the State Department following his work monitoring humanitarian issues in Gaza. Casey resigned from the State Department in July but is now speaking out publicly for the first time about why he resigned, in an interview with the Guardian’s JOSEPH GEDEON. He characterized the Biden administration’s approach to the Gaza crisis as a systematic failure in U.S. foreign policy. “I got so tired of writing about dead kids,” he said. “Just constantly having to prove to Washington that these children actually died and then watching nothing happen.”
| | | | — HERSCHEL WALKER, former football star and failed Senate candidate, is Trump’s nominee for U.S. ambassador to the Bahamas. Trump also has selected NICOLE MCGRAW, an art collector and philanthropist, for ambassador to Croatia. — COLBY CARRIER is now head of Aetherflux, D.C., leading the company’s government relations, regulatory strategy and business development. He previously was head of operations at Anduril.
| | — ANDREA KENDALL-TAYLOR and MICHAEL KOFMAN, Foreign Affairs: Putin’s point of no return — DANIEL DREZNER, Drezner’s World: What if everyone is at their breaking point? — PETER BEAUMONT, MALAK TANTESH and KAAMIL AHMED, The Guardian: ‘Everything is gone;’ How Israeli forces destroyed Jabaliya refugee camp — AZAM AHMED, The New York Times: The once booming drug town going bust under Taliban rule
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: The Future of Democracy and Human Rights in American Foreign Policy — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1 p.m.: In Conversation with Jon Finer: Recent Developments in the Biden Administration's WMD Policies Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, whom we demand to engage in arms control talks. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who always helps us counter Rosie’s nuclear ambitions. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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