| | | | |  | | By Kimberly Leonard and Kierra Frazier | BREAKING AFTER HOURS — “Anti-abortion advocates file eleventh-hour lawsuit to remove Florida abortion initiative from ballot,” reports POLITICO’s Arek Sarkissian. The lawsuit was filed by former Florida Supreme Court Justice Alan Lawson in state court on behalf of four anti-abortion advocates. It “seeks to strike a ballot initiative looking to expand abortion rights, with less than three weeks to go until the November election.” … It came just as Florida Democrats launched new ads urging voters to support the amendment, per POLITICO’s Gary Fineout . “Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party, acknowledged passing both Amendment 4 and another initiative on recreational marijuana — in addition to breaking Republicans' supermajority in the Legislature — would be a ‘huge win’ since DeSantis is staunchly opposed to both measures. ‘That’s a huge win and a huge showing that the state is not as red as everybody has been wanting to say the last two years,’ Fried said Wednesday. ‘We can walk into 2025 and say, look, we are a reason to invest in the state.’"
|  Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate. | Phelan M. Ebenhack, File/AP Photo | Good morning and welcome to Thursday. Florida congressional races have historically been among the most expensive in the country, given the state’s size and its costly media markets. But new campaign finance disclosures suggest that appears to have shifted at the candidate level as Republicans boast of a huge voter registration advantage in the state. Here are some of the highlights from the newest round of federal campaign finance reports among three key contests. The totals cover the beginning of July through the end of September. Senate race: Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell again outraised incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Scott, this time by about three to one, in a pattern that was consistent for Democrats in other key states. Mucarsel-Powell raised $15.1 million during the third quarter, the filings show, while Scott raised just over $4.9 million . Mucarsel-Powell has $4 million cash on hand while Scott has under $2 million. (The x-factor, of course, is that Scott is independently wealthy and could seed his own campaign with millions of dollars whenever he wants.) As Democrats try to save their fragile majority, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee recently announced it’s making an unspecified “multi-million dollar” TV ad buy in Florida — but also in Texas, where the Texas Tribune reported that Democratic Rep. Colin Allred raised $30.3 million during the third quarter, among the top fundraisers in the country. Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign put out a memo this week aiming to make the case for national Democrats to invest more in Florida, in part pointing to its recent TV ad spending . The memo was panned by Scott campaign spokesperson Will Hampson, who predicted it would “risk losing incumbent races across the country.” “We’ll have a big win either way,” he added. So far, Scott has contributed $15.5 million of his own money into his reelection race. That’s significantly less than the nearly $64 million he spent when he ran in 2018 against then-incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.). House District 13: GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and Democrat Whitney Fox, a former transportation official, have roughly the same amount of cash on hand, of over $800,000, at the end of the third quarter. The seat is the only one in Florida that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has on its “Red to Blue” program to flip. Fox raised nearly $1.1 million during the third quarter compared to Luna’s $951,000. House District 27: Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar’s Hispanic-majority, Miami-area district could be a competitive district under certain circumstances, but the incumbent ended this quarter with considerably more cash on hand than her Democratic opponent, Lucia Baez-Geller, a progressive Miami-Dade school board member. Salazar, who’s a former TV anchor, finished the quarter with $1.9 million cash on hand after raising more than $465,000 during the third quarter. Baez-Geller raised almost $216,000 and has under $109,000 cash on hand, and isn’t getting the same support from national Democratic groups as Fox is. WHERE’S RON? Gov. Ron DeSantis is holding a press conference in Tampa at 9:45 a.m. with Florida first lady Casey DeSantis and Florida Department of Children and Families secretary Shevaun Harris. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget in the campaign reporting that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com.
|  | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | | | 
Debris from Hurricane Helene lines a street in the Redington Beach section of St. Petersburg, Florida, on October 8, 2024, ahead of Hurricane Milton's expected landfall. | Bryan R. Smith/AFP via Getty Images | MILTON DEATH TOLL — “Inhalation death from flooded golf cart battery brings Hurricane Milton toll to 25 in Florida,” reports USA Today Network — Florida’s C.A. Bridges. “The Florida Highway Patrol reported Monday, Oct. 14, that 24 people had died in connection with the storm's statewide destruction and flooding and on Tuesday another death was announced in Charlotte County after a man died from smoke inhalation after a golf cart lithium battery exploded from storm surge flooding.” HIGH-RISK FLOOD ZONE — “Storms be damned, Florida keeps building in high-risk areas,” reports The Wall Street Journal’s Jean Eaglesham and Carl Churchill . “Florida built 77,000 new properties in high-risk flood areas since 2019, the most in the nation, according to an analysis by climate-modeling firm First Street Foundation for The Wall Street Journal. The building binge is putting the real-estate industry, and the banks that finance it, on a collision course with insurers. The new construction is one reason insurance bills for Milton and Helene are expected to be between $40 billion and $75 billion, according to ratings firm Morningstar DBRS.” 15 TORNADOES — “Tornado count in South Florida from Milton more than doubled previous record for single day,” reports Palm Beach Post’s Kimberly Miller. “While meteorologists are still gathering evidence to better assess the mayhem, the tally of 15 tornadoes more than doubles the previous record of seven in a single day. As meteorologists were forecasting the event, they initially estimated there were nine tornadoes in the seven-county region they cover from Glades County to Monroe County.” COLLABORATION — “How does a deaf sign-language interpreter communicate storm briefings? It's a team effort,” reports Jacksonville Florida Times-Union’s Mark Woods . “What you don’t see on your TV or laptop or wherever you’re watching a briefing is that this is a team effort. [Amy] Ryals isn’t hearing what the mayor is saying. Brooke Jensen is. Jensen, a certified hearing interpreter, is standing among the row of television cameras facing the stage. When the mayor or someone else speaks, Jensen signs to Ryals, who signs to viewers.”
| | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | NEXT TWIST IN SENTINEL INVESTIGATION — “FDLE probe: Rep. Carolina Amesty tried to persuade former employee to change story,” by Annie Martin of the Orlando Sentinel . “State Rep. Carolina Amesty went to the home of the man who has become the key witness in the forgery investigation against her and tried to persuade him to change his story, the man and his roommate later told state investigators. When the man, a former employee of her family’s K-12 school, refused, Amesty continued to insist that he acknowledge the authenticity of his signature on an employment document she had notarized. He declined multiple times. Finally the roommate intervened, she said, imploring Amesty to stop.”
| | CAMPAIGN MODE | | | | 
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a commercial break during a Univision town hall, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024, in Doral, Fla. | Alex Brandon/AP | TRUMP TOWN HALL IN FLORIDA — During Thursday’s Univision town hall, former President Donald “fielded questions about the economy, guns, climate change and abortion,” reports POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky . "But he kept coming back to immigration. ‘We need borders and we need honest elections,’ Trump said at one point. ‘And if we don’t have either of those two things, that’s it.’” THE PREBUTTAL — The Harris campaign held a press conference in Doral ahead of Trump’s town hall which featured emotional testimony from minors who were taken from their parents during the Trump administration’s family separation policy, reported POLITICO’s Myah Ward . The children stood in front of a backdrop that read, “Keep Families Together” and talked about their experiences being placed in foster care. “I don’t want this to happen to other kids,” one boy said. “And it’s sad to see if it’s going to happen again.” Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) also took the lectern to raise the alarm about Trump’s promises. “For Latinos who think that when Donald Trump insults immigrants or when he talks about mass deportation that you’re thinking he’s talking about somebody else — no, no — he’s talking about you,” she said. BIG AD SPEND — The Florida Democratic Party is launching a six-figure ad campaign geared toward Haitian voters in the state. The 30-second ad, dubbed “Words Shape Our Reality,” singles out Trump and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) for their false claims about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, eating pets. The ad spend is the largest Florida Democrats have allocated to a constituency in the 2024 election cycle. “When Republican leaders sow fear, hate, and division, the consequences extend far beyond just politics,” the narrator says in the ad. “Haitian Americans know firsthand how lies and misinformation can harm communities. But there is a different path — one that unites us, uplifts us.” — Kierra Frazier COMPLAINT — “Pro-abortion rights campaign sues DeSantis administration over TV ad fight,” reports POLITICO’s Arek Sarkissian . “The campaign behind a ballot initiative that seeks to expand abortion rights in Florida has filed a federal lawsuit against a state health regulator that sent warning letters to TV stations about a campaign advertisement. Lawyers for the Amendment 4 campaign, which is backed by the Floridians Protecting Freedom committee, filed a complaint Wednesday in Tallahassee federal court accusing the state Department of Health of threatening TV stations with criminal penalties in cease-and-desist letters for running an advertisement from the campaign.” LOTS OF CASH — “Abortion, weed donors make Florida ballot questions highest-funded in US,” reports Tampa Bay Times’ Ivy Nyayieka . “Supporters of the campaigns to expand abortion access and to legalize recreational marijuana have contributed more than $178 million since summer 2022. That makes them the two costliest ballot measures in the state in at least two decades, according to campaign finance research nonprofit OpenSecrets. Opponents of the campaigns have also raised more than $25 million. Still, for every dollar given in opposition, supporters have given seven.” VOTERS TAKE NOTICE — “How Harris’ campaign thinks hurricanes are influencing the campaign,” reports POLITICO’s Josh Siegel . “The destruction that two powerful hurricanes wreaked across the Southeast has driven a ‘real uptick’ in voter interest on climate change, Kamala Harris’ new climate engagement director tells POLITICO in a Q&A. … ‘Voters are seeing this extreme weather is made so much worse by climate change, and that we have two very different rooted visions on the table,’ [Camila Thorndike said.]” BLACK VOTER SUPPORT — “Senate Dems’ campaign arm launching ad campaign targeting Black voters,” reports The Hill’s Jared Gans. “An aide for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) told The Hill in an exclusive that the campaign will place ads in outlets in Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. They said the ads will promote why voters need to participate in Senate elections and encourage them to make a plan to vote.” GIVING CREDIT — “What Matt Gaetz thinks Kamala Harris is doing well,” reports POLITICO’s Betsy Woodruff Swan. “‘I have seen strong evidence of the Harris campaign building peer-to-peer voter contact networks in swing states at scale,’ [Gaetz told POLITICO]. ‘This is exactly what David Plouffe wrote about in ‘The Audacity to Win,’ and he’s doing it again.’” THREE-WAY RACE — “Pensacola's statehouse race is a three-way battle between GOP, Dem, and an independent,” reports Pensacola News Journal’s Jim Little . “Rep. Alex Andrade, R-Pensacola, is facing two challengers in the November election, Democratic candidate Haley ‘Hale’ Morrissette and non-party affiliated candidate Kim Kline. … The three-way race could lead to a unique dynamic in an otherwise solid red district. Voters have sent Andrade to Tallahassee three times before, and he is running for his fourth and final two-year term because of the House’s term limits.”
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