| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | | 
VP Kamala Harris' hot streak may be coming to an end. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo | Once again, a new NYT/Siena poll is all anyone is talking about. Nate Cohn and his colleagues have published the first high-quality survey since KAMALA HARRIS replaced President JOE BIDEN on the ticket that suggests the VP’s hot streak may be coming to an end. The Times poll shows DONALD TRUMP leading Harris by 1 point — 48 percent to 47 percent — among likely voters. Like any single poll, we’ll have to wait to see if it’s validated by other research in the coming days. The debate on Tuesday could also scramble things in some new way, so we don’t want to read too much into this morning’s numbers. But Cohn, who says “the result is a bit surprising,” offers some wise analysis about why the poll may be a leading indicator of “a reversion back toward” Trump:
- Trump remains popular, with a 46 percent approval rating — which is better than where he stood in either of his last two presidential campaigns.
- Trump has the edge over Harris when voters were asked generally which candidate is better on whatever was their top issue. One caveat to this is that when voters were asked about specific issues, the results were more mixed and along the lines you would expect: Harris has an advantage on democracy (50 percent to 44 percent) and abortion (55 percent to 38 percent), and Trump has an advantage on immigration (53 percent to 42 percent) and the economy (56 percent to 40 percent).
- In what Cohn calls “one of Mr. Trump’s overlooked advantages,” the Times poll says voters see the former president as closer to the center than Harris. This has to be a bitter pill for the Harris campaign to swallow, given how much work it has done since she took over as the Democratic nominee to occupy the center and, as Cohn points out, given some prominent issues where Trump is objectively not in the mainstream, such as election denialism.
- Who is the candidate of change? One question that stuck out to us is about which candidate represents “change.” We’ve repeatedly noted that Harris, a sitting VP tied to an unpopular incumbent, has done a lot of savvy political work projecting herself as the candidate of the future. But the Times poll douses some of those flames. It finds that 25 percent of respondents see her as representing “major change,” versus 51 percent for Trump. That’s a big problem given that 61 percent of voters in this poll say they want major change.
- Finally, since Harris entered the race, the two campaigns have been locked in a race to define her. The conventional wisdom was that Harris was winning that battle. But this poll suggests otherwise. “Nearly half of voters say she’s ‘too liberal or progressive,’” Cohn writes. “A majority of voters see her as at least somewhat responsible for the problems along the border. And a majority of voters say she’s a ‘risky’ choice and ‘more of the same’ — hardly an enviable combination.”
Asked about the poll, the Harris campaign pointed to a Sept. 1 state-of-the-race memo in which campaign chair JEN O’MALLEY DILLON tried to set expectations about how close the race would be. She wrote that “we head into the final stretch of this race as the clear underdogs” and emphasized Trump’s advantages, adding that “Trump has a motivated base of support, with more support and higher favorability than he has had at any point since 2020.” She also reminded Harris supporters — whose excitement about their candidate may have outstripped her actual advantages — that margins in the race will be “razor thin,” which at the end of the day is probably the biggest takeaway from this poll. Meanwhile, a new survey of three swing states from CBS News tells the same tale, with Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania (50 percent-50 percent), Harris up 1 point in Michigan (50 percent-49 percent) and 2 points in Wisconsin (51 percent-49 percent). The Trump campaign is giddy about the NYT poll. “The honeymoon is officially over,” Trump spokesperson JASON MILLER told Playbook this morning, “and Kamala Harris has been exposed as a Radical Left individual who owns the destruction of our economy and our border.” He also added some digs about Harris’ low profile and staffing changes in her campaign: “It’s also worth noting that Kamala Harris’ original team wouldn’t have kept her in hiding or suggested she give that terrible answer to CNN saying her values have not changed. This is all coming from the [BARACK] OBAMA advisors who have layered the original Harris team — the Obama advisors don’t actually believe in Kamala Harris, and their campaign decision-making shows it.” Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Better Medicare Alliance: TRACKING THE SENIOR VOTE — Protecting Medicare tops the list in this election, according to a new bipartisan poll. Today, that means Medicare Advantage.
Medicare Advantage represents over half of the Medicare program, serving more than 33 million seniors. Seniors choose Medicare Advantage for affordable health care with better outcomes.
That’s why a supermajority of older voters agrees: Washington must keep health care affordable for seniors by standing up for Medicare Advantage. Read the results. | | | SUNDAY BEST … — Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D-Ga.) on the Georgia school shooting, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “There is no one single law that will stop all of these tragedies. In a sense, I think we have to broaden the scope of the question because, after all, we have two mass shootings a day in our country, based on the data just last year. And this does not happen everywhere in the world. The problem is that we have politicians in our country who are beholden to the gun lobby. And either based on ambition or fear, they go to work every day doing their bidding while the gun lobby lines its pockets with the blood of our children. … We’re all sitting ducks. … Politicians need to realign their values.” — NIKKI HALEY on whether she’ll campaign for Trump, on CBS’ “Face the Nation”: “He knows I’m on standby. I talked to him back in June. He’s aware that I’m ready if he ever needs me to do that. … To me, the stark contrast between a Trump and Harris administration are what led me to say … I’m going to be voting with Trump, and I’m going to speak at the convention.” — Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG on what Harris needs to do in the debate, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “The main task will be to make sure Americans understand the difference in visions and are reminded that they already agree with her on the issues that matter most to them. … But it will take almost superhuman focus and discipline to deal with Donald Trump in a debate. … The less we’re talking about him and the more we’re talking about you, the better it’s going to be for the vice president. … You can’t allow him to change the subject.” — LIZ CHENEY on her message to other anti-Trump Republicans about endorsing Harris, on ABC’s “This Week”: “Given the closeness of this election, particularly if you’re going to find yourself voting in a swing state, you’ve got to take the extra step … I would prefer to have as many people as possible out publicly making the case, but at the end of the day, you just have to wrestle with your own conscience when you’re there in the voting booth.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
| | | | A message from Better Medicare Alliance:   Seniors can’t afford policies that make their health care more expensive. They are counting on Washington to protect Medicare Advantage. Learn more. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden has nothing on his public schedule. Harris is in Pittsburgh, where she’ll have internal staff meetings and briefings.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | |  At his rally in Mosinee, Wisconsin, Donald Trump called for changes to the 25th Amendment and radical reforms in the federal government. | Scott Olson/Getty Images | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. DEMOCRACY WATCH: In some of his most explicit threats yet to upend the rule of law, Trump yesterday warned that he would jail election officials, lawyers and political operatives involved in so-called election cheating — hypothetical future crimes based on his own insistent lies about election fraud, AP’s Michael Goldberg, Scott Bauer and Jill Colvin report. “Those involved in unscrupulous behavior will be sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our Country,” Trump threatened on Truth Social. It was the latest in a history of pledges to target his political opponents for retribution in a second term. Trump made a number of other notable vows yesterday at his rally in Mosinee, Wisconsin. He said the 25th Amendment should be expanded to include removing a VP who “cover[s] up the incapacity of the president,” a clear swipe at Harris and Biden, per CNN’s Kate Sullivan and Arit John. He expanded his tariff plans, saying that any country moving away from using the U.S. dollar for trade will be slapped with 100 percent tariffs, per Bloomberg’s Stephanie Lai. And Trump laid out his plans for radically remaking the federal government, including firing disloyal civil servants, ending the Education Department and involving vaccine conspiracy theorist ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. in childhood health policies, NYT’s Michael Gold reports. 2. UP FOR DEBATE: Ahead of Tuesday’s big debate, both candidates are under significant pressure to live up to expectations. The onus is on Trump to show that he’s learned how to message effectively against Harris, and not get sidetracked, WaPo’s Dan Balz writes. But the onus is on Harris to hammer Trump on abortion, as NYT’s Michael Gold and Nicholas Nehamas report, and learn from her past mistakes — especially the 2019 debate when TULSI GABBARD attacked her, Holly Otterbein, Chris Cadelago and Elena Schneider report in an interesting piece from Philly. More debate reading: “What we can learn about Harris’s tactics from her past debate performances,” by WaPo’s Maeve Reston … “Hillary Clinton Has Advice on Debating Trump: ‘He Can Be Rattled,’” by NYT’s Reid Epstein … “Debate Will Be 90 Fateful Minutes for 2 Candidates, and One Network,” by NYT’s Michael Grynbaum 3. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: U.S. hopes for a cease-fire deal in the Israel-Hamas war are fading once again, with negotiations now “on life support” in the wake of a new Hamas demand throwing a wrench into things, WaPo’s Yasmeen Abutaleb reports. Hamas’ new “poison-pill” shift on prisoner releases comes on top of demands from Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU that had made a deal less likely, as “[n]egotiators increasingly fear that neither Israel nor Hamas is truly motivated to reach a deal.” The U.S. is now regrouping and reassessing its plans to present a take-it-or-walk-away proposal shortly. Meanwhile, the reported Israeli killing of AYSENUR EZGI EYGI, a U.S. citizen who was at a protest in the West Bank, has sparked new outrage from congressional Democrats, who called for an investigation, per Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing. Eygi’s family demanded that the U.S. open an independent probe, saying Israel couldn’t mount one impartially, per NYT’s Liam Stack and Ephrat Livni. 4. HOW HARRIS WINS: “Trump’s Problem in Michigan: a County Where Republicans Can’t Get Along,” by WSJ’s Dante Chinni and Janet Adamy in Clinton Township: “[T]he GOP effort to boost turnout in Macomb County has been slow to gear up and beset by infighting. Some local party leaders are refusing to follow the Trump campaign’s ground strategy, which relies on an app to identify persuadable voters, pledging to instead use their own approach to decide which homes to visit. Loyal Trump foot soldiers, the local leaders complain, couldn’t even start knocking on doors in August because the campaign hadn’t yet replaced printed material pegged to a rematch against President Biden.”
| | | | A message from Better Medicare Alliance:   Medicare Advantage is affordable health care for seniors, and they want Washington to protect it. | | | 5. KEYS TO THE KEYSTONE: Democrats are worried that Trump could repeat his 2020 inroads with Latino voters in Philadelphia, WSJ’s Catherine Lucey reports. Both sides are putting significant investments into turnout and persuasion efforts with heavily Latino areas in the northern part of the city. For many of those voters, and people across Pennsylvania, housing affordability has emerged as a major cost-of-living issue that could sway plenty of votes, the Boston Globe’s Jim Puzzanghera captures from Bethlehem. In the Lehigh Valley, he finds voters putting housing at the top of their list — and intrigued by proposals from both Harris and Trump. And in the Senate race, Republican DAVID McCORMICK and his allies are preparing a staggering $100 million ad campaign in the final two months — $40 million more than Democratic Sen. BOB CASEY and Democrats have on the docket, CNN’s Manu Raju and Haley Talbot report from Pen Argyl. The incoming disparity on the airwaves has Casey saying he’s the underdog in the race. 6. 2025 WATCH: “A New Jersey radio host is using his campaign for governor to defend bigotry,” by Matt Friedman: “Once a mainstream Republican figure who had twice unsuccessfully run for office, [BILL] SPADEA has become the state’s most prominent pro-Donald Trump commentator, embracing anti-vaccine rhetoric and right-wing conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. In a blue state that also has a history of electing moderate Republican governors, Spadea’s 2025 run is a test of GOP voters’ attitudes toward a far-right candidate.” 7. MARK ROBINSON IN THE SPOTLIGHT: North Carolina’s lieutenant governor and GOP gubernatorial nominee said last week that he’d ideally like for abortion restrictions to go “down to zero” weeks, though he can live with the current 12-week ban, NBC’s Yamiche Alcindor scooped. Democrats obtained the audio of his comments. It’s just the latest controversial comment from the Republican standard-bearer in a campaign between two deeply divided candidates, as NYT’s Eduardo Medina reports. Talking to more than 60 voters across the state, he finds a broad “sense that North Carolina is at a particularly consequential crossroads.” 8. BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: “Alabama congressional district redrawn to better represent Black voters sparks competitive race,” by AP’s Kim Chandler in Tuskegee: “The non-partisan Cook Political Report ranks the district as ‘likely Democrat.’ Still, both [Republican CAROLEENE] DOBSON and [Democrat SHOMARI] FIGURES believe the race is competitive. … Both candidates are lawyers under the age of 40 with young children. And both left Alabama for opportunities but have recently returned home. 9. ACCOUNTABILITY READ: “RFK Jr. made big promises to pollution victims. Some say he didn’t keep them,” by WaPo’s Peter Jamison in Rock Creek, West Virginia: “Seventeen years later, the pollution has not ended. [MARIA] GUNNOE said she has not seen Kennedy in this part of Appalachia since he showed up in 2011 to promote ‘The Last Mountain,’ an acclaimed documentary that chronicled his efforts to stop mountaintop removal mining. And majestic Coal River Mountain, which inspired the film’s title, has been blown apart in the pursuit of long-since extracted coal. Its eerily jagged remnants rise above tiny towns and hollows where the Kennedy name, once held in awe, is now sometimes spoken with bitterness.”
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Elon Musk’s PAC is starting to slam Kamala Harris with digital ads. Doug Emhoff and Josh Shapiro saw Pearl Jam in Philly. Khizr Khan endorsed Harris. George W. Bush doesn’t plan to endorse anyone. Gavin Newsom is hitting the trail again for Harris. IN MEMORIAM — Former New Hampshire first lady Nancy Sununu “held influential roles, including Project Director for the Republican Governors Association and Vice Chairman of the Republican Women’s Federal Forum. She chaired the Republican State Party in 1980 during the pivotal New Hampshire First in the Nation Presidential Primary.” Full obituary OUT AND ABOUT — MSNBC hosted its inaugural “MSNBC Live: Democracy 2024” event at the Brooklyn Academy of Music yesterday, with more than 4,000 attendees. Highlights will air in a special Saturday night. SPOTTED: Rachel Maddow, Lawrence O’Donnell, Jen Psaki, Katy Tur, Chris Hayes, Andrea Mitchell, Joy Reid, Alex Wagner, Ari Melber, Symone Sanders-Townsend, Michael Steele, Alicia Menendez, Stephanie Ruhle, Cesar Conde, Rashida Jones, Rebecca Kutler, Molly Jong-Fast, Claire McCaskill, Andrew Weissmann and Kate Shaw. — The University of Michigan and Jake Tapper hosted the launch of Alice Tapper’s new book, “Use Your Voice” ($18.99), yesterday at Comet Ping Pong. The Tappers and Prashant Mahajan had a discussion about her struggle to get the right diagnosis after getting hit by appendicitis. SPOTTED: Jennifer Tapper, Dana Bash, Chuck Todd, Kristian Denny, Karen Finney, Tammy Haddad, Pamela Brown, Kasie Hunt, Stacy Kerr, Kay Kendall, and Paige and Matt Tolmach. — West End Strategy Team celebrated its belated 10th anniversary at the Bruce Springsteen concert last night. SPOTTED: Matt Dorf, Samantha Kupferman, Shannon Craig Straw, Rachel Tardiff, Jeremy Ben-Ami, Wendy Young, Bishop Dwayne Royster, Halie Soifer, Siobhan Mueller, Mark Hetfield, and Kim and Alan Hartman. — SPOTTED last night at a party for the Human Rights Foundation’s Casey Michel’s new book, “Foreign Agents: How American Lobbyists and Lawmakers Threaten Democracy Around the World” ($30), hosted by Juleanna Glover: Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Nahal Toosi, J.P. Freire, Michael Schaffer, Phelim Kine, Christina Sevilla, Eric Felten, Alec Dent, Michael Tomasky, Ellen Knickmeyer, Denise Couture and Daniel Nasaw. TRANSITIONS — The University of Southern California’s Capital Campus has elevated Elyse Levine to executive director, and added Matt Hodge as executive director of university advancement (previously at the University of Maryland) and Sydney Walley as director of events and comms (previously at FGS Global). WEDDING — Joseph Gedeon, a national security reporter at POLITICO and author of Morning Cybersecurity, and Regina de Heer, a producer at New York Public Radio/WNYC, got married over Labor Day weekend in an Antiochian Orthodox ceremony in his hometown of Montreal. They met while living in New York and have been together for seven years, including a stint working together at WNYC. Pic, via Yvens Banatte … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) … Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho) … CNN’s Alayna Treene … Purple Strategies’ Steve McMahon … Orchestra’s Jonathan Rosen … Richard Cullen … Sharon Páez of Potomac Waves Media, Shatter and Hilltop Public Solutions … Zack Ford … POLITICO’s Jeremy White, Tara Gnewikow and Eva Lee … Alexis Marks Mosher of Apple … Gabby Deutch … Eduardo Cisneros of HHS … White House’s Lenore Cho … Charlotte Ivancic … Elodie Offord of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee … Jaime Lennon of Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger’s (D-Md.) office … Mike Danylak … Ali Pardo of the House GOP Conference … J.D. Durkin … Airlines for America’s Marli Collier … former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis … former Sen. Sam Nunn (D-Ga.) … E.W. Scripps’ Samantha Osborne Reynolds … former NEC Director Al Hubbard … NBC’s Maura Barrett … Brendan Kownacki … Michael Wasser … Curtis Ried … Jack Petocz of Gen-Z for Change Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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