Monday, August 26, 2024

The New Enemies of the American Dream

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AN OXFORD CLUB PUBLICATION

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THE SHORTEST WAY TO A RICH LIFE

The New Enemies of the American Dream

Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club

Alexander Green

The American Dream has long been a major element of our national identity.

Most of us grew up with the belief that anyone, regardless of their background, can achieve success, prosperity, and upward mobility through hard work and determination.

Yes, everyone encounters luck, both good and bad. (And some have considerably more of one than the other.)

But the United States offers its citizens the opportunity to rise as far as their talents and persistence will take them.

Yet a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll showed that only 27% of Americans believe the dream - defined as "if you work hard, you'll get ahead" - still holds true.

Eighteen perecent said it was "never true."

This astonishes me.

Yes, our country faces many serious problems and challenges here and abroad. Yet we have seen astonishing progress over the last several decades.

The American public has never been less racist, sexist, or homophobic than it is today.

We live in the most prosperous country in the world, one that attracts millions of immigrants - both legal and illegal - each year.

Human longevity has never been greater. Educational attainment has never been higher. Household incomes and net wealth are at record levels.

Yet three out of four of my fellow countrymen believe the American Dream doesn't exist.

Why not?

It turns out that there are several enemies of the American Dream. And their influence is pervasive.

These groups are squashing - indeed destroying - the fervent hopes and dreams of millions of Americans.

For some, the damage they do is incidental. Others do it deliberately, because they have an agenda.

They have a product or service to sell... or a donation to solicit... or a political candidate to elect.

Regardless of whether they do it intentionally or unwittingly, these groups make it far less likely that you'll achieve your most important financial goals.

That's why I like to call them out. That way you can recognize their arguments for what they are: garbage.

Garbage that clutters your mind, spoils your mood, lessens your motivation, and makes it far less likely that you will live your version of the dream.

Let's consider a few of the enemies here, starting with the public education system.

It's bad enough that Americans graduate from high school without the most basic financial literacy.

Polls show that most high school graduates cannot calculate compound interest, don't understand IRAs or 401(k)s, and can't evaluate the pros and cons of fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate mortgages.

(Many of their teachers don't understand either, which is a big part of the problem.)

Moreover, as parents were shocked to learn during the COVID-19 lockdowns, some teachers routinely describe the U.S. as a fatally flawed and grossly unequal nation where the little guy doesn't stand a chance.

The rich just get richer while the poor get poorer.

Not true. (I'll have more to say about this mischaracterization in a future column.)

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Another group that routinely steps on the American dream is the mainstream media.

A negativity bias runs through its news coverage. Good news is glossed over or unreported, while bad news - and its ramifications - are repeated ad nauseum.

No wonder polls routinely show that only a quarter of Americans believe the country is on the right track.

(This number remains almost constant through expansions and recessions and under both Democrat and Republican administrations.)

Why is media coverage so negative? Because that's where the money is.

Media companies prosper based on the size of their audience.

And since human beings are hard-wired to be on a continual lookout for potential threats and dangers, the media pile them on (both real and imagined).

It's not that the things the media reports aren't true. It's that they are regularly taken out of context and delivered without a counterbalancing perspective.

(Mitigating factors make a story less sensational. And the less sensational a piece is, the less likely it is to be viewed, heard, liked, or shared.)

If the mainstream media is unduly negative, social media - which helps put every idiot in touch with every other idiot - is even worse.

With no reputation to protect, no integrity to uphold, and no credibility to safeguard, "stuff" from various sources circulates based on algorithms that have nothing to do with truthfulness.

It's the negativity bias of cable news or supermarket tabloids... on steroids.

I should also call out the doom-mongers in my own industry, financial newsletter publishing.

There are editors and marketers who take all the bad news in the media and then hype it up to the most absurd conclusions imaginable.

Why? Because it sells, year in and year out.

After all, you are going to lose everythintg you've worked for your whole life unless you take Joe's Blow's letter and learn how to protect yourself from the coming currency collapse, stock market crash, economic Armageddon, and/or Greater Depression that lies dead ahead!

Most of these guys - they do tend to be "guys," not women - have been saying much the same thing not just for years but decades.

Their reasons get a regular update to reflect the new scary headlines... but the dystopian conclusions remain the same.

Because fear sells.

Or, as one perma-bear editor told me over dinner one night, "My job is selling gloom and doom to grumpy old men."

That means that if you've reached a certain age... and you have a pessimistic outlook... and you've bought a frightening story about the prospects for the financial markets... you might be getting played like a fine Stradivarius.

Sadly, that only makes it less likely that your financial goals will be met.

These aren't the only enemies of the American Dream, of course.

There are two other groups that occupy the far ends of the spectrum: intellectuals and politicians.

We'll consider their motivations - and their negative impact on your dreams - in my next column.

Good investing,

Alex

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