| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | Presented by LG Ad Solutions | | | | | Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: A vulnerable incumbent is facing a well-funded primary challenger this week. Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) is just the latest over the span of the last month to come up against a serious primary opponent. And should his rival, Westchester County Executive George Latimer, be successful, he would be the first Democrat to be kicked out of the House this cycle.
|  Rep. Jamaal Bowman speaks during a rally at on June 22, 2024, in the Bronx. | David Dee Delgado/Getty Images | | The primary in NY-16 won’t factor much into Democrats’ plans for flipping the House, as it’s an overwhelmingly blue seat. But it’s perhaps the biggest example of divisions in the party over the war in Gaza since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. Bowman, a member of the progressive Squad who has been outspoken about his support of Palestinians amid the war, is facing millions of dollars in spending from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the deep-pocketed pro-Israel group that is backing Latimer. It’s a big bet for AIPAC, which has spent more than $14 million on TV and digital advertising on the primary through its super PAC, the United Democracy Project, according to ad tracker AdImpact. UDP is the biggest spender in the primary, which has a grand total of around $25 million in ad expenditures — making it the most expensive House primary ever (thanks in part to the district being in the pricey New York City media market). This race has been UDP’s largest investment so far this year. While the conflict in Gaza has taken center stage in Bowman’s primary, it’s far from the only dynamic at play. Bowman has garnered plenty of attention during his time in Congress, from his spats with Republicans to pleading guilty to a misdemeanor charge for pulling the fire alarm in a House office building during a government funding vote last year. Latimer is a well-known entity at home and has strong local ties. And in the final stretch of the campaign, attacks have devolved into accusations of racism and lying. Bowman still does have some notable supporters. Over the weekend, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) — another Squad member who also has a primary challenge on Tuesday but isn’t being targeted by AIPAC — rallied for him, and House Democratic leadership endorsed his reelection bid. If Bowman does lose on Tuesday, it will be a boon for the pro-Israel groups that spent heavily against the Squad, especially as they have their sights set on other vulnerable progressives later this cycle. And they did it all mostly without mentioning Israel: Instead, AIPAC has been primarily hitting Bowman for voting against the bipartisan infrastructure bill and debt limit deal, accusing him of not supporting President Joe Biden. It’s the same tactic UDP is using against Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), who is also facing an AIPAC-backed primary challenger this summer. As AIPAC’s onslaught has kicked into high gear, progressives have more explicitly attacked the group — including calling AIPAC, which isn’t necessarily well-known by the broader electorate, out by name. Bowman slammed Latimer in an ad by saying he “sold out to Republican-funded AIPAC,” and at his rally over the weekend, he criticized the group. Similarly, Bush’s opening spot references an article saying that AIPAC is “spending heavily” to beat her. Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Colorado, New York and Utah primaries and South Carolina runoffs: 1 Days until the Republican National Convention: 21 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 56 Days until the 2024 election: 134
| | | | A message from LG Ad Solutions: New study available now: 'The Big Shift: Political Edition' shares our latest survey results for how political and regional differences shape CTV viewing habits. Discover why 63% of viewers now prefer streaming over traditional TV, and which party affiliation is leading the change. The Big Shift has significant implications for how you tailor your media and messaging to reach and engage voters during the most critical phases of the cycle. Download the full report here. | | | | | GOOD GRIEF — Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) is still hanging on for his political life as election officials go through the remaining ballots from last week’s contentious primary in VA-05 against state Sen. John McGuire. As of early Monday morning, McGuire has a 0.6 percentage point lead over Good, with around 98 percent of the vote in, according to estimates from the Associated Press. If the final result is less than 1 percentage point difference, the second-place candidate can request a recount at their own expense; but if the result is less than 0.5 percent, then the state will pay for the recount. Good has already vowed to take the race to a recount — and has “begun sowing doubt about the integrity” of the election, which election officials have pushed back on, POLITICO’s Ally Mutnick and Olivia Beavers write. ANOTHER ONE — Abortion-rights supporters in Montana said they submitted enough signatures to get an initiative on the ballot that would enshrine access to the procedure in the state constitution, per the Montana Free Press’ Mara Silvers. LEGAL LOOK — Six Nevada Republicans, including state party chair Michael McDonald and other top party officials, had the fake elector charges against them dropped after a Clark County judge ruled that the county was “not the appropriate jurisdiction for the case,” The Nevada Independent’s Eric Neugeboren writes. The state attorney general said his office would appeal the ruling to the state Supreme Court.
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| | STATE OF THE UNIONS — Teamsters union General President Sean O’Brien will speak at the RNC next month — the first time a Teamsters president has spoken at the gathering. The union said it requested to appear at the DNC, as well. “Long a Democratic mainstay, the Teamsters have sought to make inroads with the GOP this election cycle,” POLITICO’s Nick Niedzwiadek writes. “The Teamsters are perhaps the most politically influential of the handful of national labor unions that have yet to endorse a presidential candidate, and O’Brien said that they intend to announce their choice sometime after this summer’s conventions.” SETTING THE STAGE — Ahead of the first presidential general election debate of the cycle between Biden and former President Donald Trump on Thursday, the president’s campaign announced plans to hold hundreds of events in battleground states “that will also serve as organizing opportunities where the campaign will identify and engage more supporters,” as well as maintain a heavy presence on the airwaves, online (including having content creators in the spin room) and on the ground across the country in Atlanta. The debate is also heavy on Trump’s mind: At a rally in deep-blue Philadelphia on Saturday, he “couldn’t stop talking about” it, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky reports. TRAIL MIX — At this weekend’s Faith & Freedom Coalition gathering of evangelicals in D.C., Trump “didn’t budge on his refusal to call for federal abortion restrictions — a top goal of some of the nation’s leading Christian conservative and anti-abortion groups,” POLITICO’s Natalie Allison and Jared Mitovich write. “Still, there was no question that Trump had the full support of his audience, despite not going as far as some of them would like on abortion restrictions.” MONEY TALKS — After May campaign finance reports released last week showed Trump closing the fundraising gap with Biden, “Democrats in recent days largely downplayed Trump’s new financial lead in the same way Trump’s allies had when Biden was running ahead in the money race — saying the president would have enough money to compete,” POLITICO’s Elena Schneider and Lauren Egan write. “But privately, several Democratic strategists and donors were reeling,” while Biden's campaign “pointed to their battleground staffing footprint, which includes 200 offices and a thousand staffers, as money well spent.” … ON THE OTHER HAND: “Trump may be raking in donations. But across the country, the mood of Republicans has dimmed, according to nearly a dozen Republican operatives, county chairs and current and former GOP officials,” POLITICO’s Adam Wren writes. “It comes amid ongoing concerns about the effect of abortion on Republican candidates. And it follows defections from Trump in the primaries and, most recently, polling that has found Trump’s conviction in his New York hush-money trial hurting him with independents.” BALLOT BATTLE — Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. filed for the ballot in Pennsylvania — a battleground that Biden won by around just 1 point in 2020. Democrats in other swing states, like Nevada, have sought to block Kennedy from the ballot out of concern that he could take votes away from Biden. The Kennedy campaign says it has collected enough signatures to qualify in 23 states, for a total of 323 electoral votes.
| | | | A message from LG Ad Solutions:   | | | | | FIRST IN SCORE — ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — Swing Left, the liberal group focused on engaging grassroots Democrats, is launching a fund that, in a first for the organization, will support abortion-rights ballot initiatives. That includes campaigns supporting such ballot measures in Arizona, Nevada and New York. The fund will also support Democrats’ Senate campaigns — Sens. Tammy Baldwin (Wis.), Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Jon Tester (Mont.) and Jacky Rosen (Nev.), and Rep. Ruben Gallego (Ariz.) — along with North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein and Democrats running for the state legislature in Pennsylvania. … RELATED: “A new coalition of abortion-rights groups is marking the second anniversary of the fall of Roe v. Wade with a pledge to spend $100 million to restore federal protections for the procedure and make it more accessible than ever before,” POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein writes. “Groups including Planned Parenthood, the ACLU and Reproductive Freedom for All are banding together to form Abortion Access Now — a national, 10-year campaign that will both prepare policies for the next time Democrats control the House, Senate and White House, and build support for those policies among lawmakers and the public.” IT’S A NO FROM ME — Democratic North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, as expected, vetoed a Republican-led bill that would change state campaign finance regulations in a way that Democrats have said could benefit Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the GOP gubernatorial nominee. Republicans have a large enough majority in the state legislature to overrule his veto. PARTY PROBLEMS — “The Colorado GOP spent nearly $20,000 in late May to help party Chairman Dave Williams in his 5th District Congressional campaign,” The Colorado Sun’s Sandra Fish writes. “That represented the largest single expense of the nearly $90,000 the party spent last month.” Williams, who’s facing a primary this week against Speaker Mike Johnson-backed Jeff Crank to succeed retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn, has faced calls to step down from his position, in part for how he has used the party platform while running for Congress.
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | | | FIRST IN SCORE — MO-AG — An internal poll conducted by Remington Research Group for Republican Will Scharf, a personal attorney for Trump, shows him trailing state Attorney General Andrew Bailey by six points in the primary, 24 percent to 18 percent, Daniel Lippman reports (784 likely primary voters, June 5-6, MoE +/- 3.6 percentage points). The numbers come as another poll from Scharf's allies at Club from Growth that was conducted by WPA Intelligence showed a less competitive race, with Bailey ahead 35 percent to 17 percent (502 primary voters, June 2-4, MoE +/- 4.4 percentage points). The pollsters that did the respective surveys are owned in full or in part by Axiom, which is running Scharf’s race. … MO-Gov — The Remington poll had state Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft leading the GOP primary for the open governor seat at 29 percent. Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe was at 21 percent, the only other candidate in double digits.
| | MT-Sen — Tester features a “life-long Republican” veteran discussing how the senator has supported veterans. NV-Sen — Rosen runs Spanish-language spots touting her work across the aisle for Nevada families. … Republican Sam Brown is also running a Spanish-language ad on his background. PA-Sen — Duty and Honor, which is affiliated with Senate Majority PAC, says that Democratic Sen. Bob Casey has worked to “defend our border.” AK-AL — Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola talks about how she’s made “fish a national issue” and worked to protect fisheries. AZ-06 — Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is hitting the air ahead of his August primary, outlining his border policies. FL-01 — Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz is up with his first spot for his reelection bid, calling primary opponent Aaron Dimmock a “raging liberal.” The ad ties Dimmock to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, whom Gaetz has had long-running beef with. The Florida lawmaker is just one of the eight Republicans who voted to strip McCarthy of the gavel who are being targeted on the former speaker’s revenge tour. NM-02 — Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez is slamming former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell, his predecessor whom he defeated in the midterms, over abortion. SC-03 — Republican Sheri Biggs is attacking runoff primary opponent Mark Burns for voting for Barack Obama, and touts her support for the Second Amendment. WA-03 — Republican Leslie Lewallen, a member of a local city council, says she decided to run for office because of the “COVID chaos.” She blames Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez for homelessness and crime in Portland and says that Joe Kent, another Republican contender who lost to Gluesenkamp Perez in 2022, “can’t stop her” and “had his chance.” WA-04 — America Leads PAC is boosting Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse’s immigration policies ahead of his August primary. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “I don’t know what your definition of continuity is, but it’s hard to keep the train moving when you keep changing the conductor.” — Mississippi Democratic Party Chair Cheikh Taylor, who was elected to a full term over the weekend after serving as interim party chair since last year when the previous chair was ousted.
| | | | A message from LG Ad Solutions: New study available now: 'The Big Shift: Political Edition' shares fresh data from our latest survey on TV viewing behaviors split by political affiliation and region. Findings revealed that 63% of viewers now favor streaming platforms over traditional TV, with some distinct differences between Democrats, Republicans and Independents. Understand the dynamics of how voters across affiliation are engaging with content on Connected TV and which types of ads resonate the most. With 66% of viewers adjusting their streaming subscriptions last year, and a clear preference for relevant advertising among the majority, the implications for political marketers are substantial. Get ready for crunch time with actionable insights to maximize your impact with the voters your campaigns want to reach. Download 'The Big Shift: Political Edition' here. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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