Monday, June 24, 2024

How banks are feeding the private debt boom

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Jun 24, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Sam Sutton

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QUICK FIX

Banks and private debt firms are often cast as competitors. But even competitors can be friends with benefits.

A growing number of U.S. banks are shedding loan book risk by purchasing credit derivatives from hedge funds, private equity firms and asset managers that are key players in private debt. These transactions — known as synthetic risk transfers — do just what their name implies: They transfer risk from heavily regulated banks to private debt firms that aren’t subject to the same level of scrutiny.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing. In certain circumstances, it “takes risk that's highly concentrated in a specific institution and spreads it out over a lot of investors,” Brian Graham, a partner at Klaros Group, told MM. That can provide a bank with more flexibility to lend or expand.

But these transactions are also indicative of how the U.S. has pushed “more and more activity — even aside from synthetic risk transfers — out of the banking system to non-bank players,” said Graham, who leads the firm’s strategy, finance, capital, M&A, partnerships and stakeholder engagement practices. “Those are direct results of choices we've made about the cost burdens and constraints we're going to put on banks.”

“We have visibility into banks,” he added. “We don't have visibility into these [private debt] entities, quite often. And all the things that are designed to be shock absorbers for the banking system … they don't exist for those guys.”

The lack of visibility into private debt has been a long-standing concern for top regulators like SEC Chair Gary Gensler and outgoing FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg. The growing popularity of synthetic risk transfer strategies at domestic institutions will only lead to more questions about the interconnections between banks and opaque private investment firms.

Synthetic risk transfers have been a common investment product in Europe for some time. A growing number of U.S. institutions began relying on the strategy last year after the Federal Reserve issued guidance that clarified how risk transfers could provide relief from bank capital requirements.

They function a lot like insurance. The banks pay investment firms to absorb unexpected losses on nonperforming loans. The investment firms post collateral to cover any defaults.

The benefit to the bank is that it allows it to reduce risk without having to sell loan assets that, in the current rate environment, would likely be marked as a loss. It also provides an avenue for larger regional banks to come into compliance with the Fed’s capital requirement proposal (h/t to Matt Wirz at The Wall Street Journal).

Private debt firms like synthetic risk transfers because it’s a lucrative and fast-growing market. BlackRock’s private debt team believes that there will soon be “rapid growth in volume as a result of regulatory changes and increasing comfort among bank issuers and institutional buyers.”

As the market grows, expect regulators to get more questions about how these products work and their potential risks. Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) has already sent up flares to the Fed airing his concerns.

They make banks (and government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) “look better capitalized than they are,” Mark Calabria, the former director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, told MM. “Show me examples of this that aren't connected to regulatory arbitrage.”

IT’S MONDAY — When in doubt, your MM host will nod and say “arbitrage” if a source is describing a trade he doesn’t fully understand. If you’d like to explain things to me in the simplest terms, send tips and suggestions to ssutton@politico.com or on Signal at 925.216.7576.

 

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Driving the Week

Monday … San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at a Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California and the San Francisco Press Club event at 2 p.m. …

Tuesday … Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman will speak at a Policy Exchange and Nexus Strategic Communications event on U.S. monetary policy and bank capital reforms at 7 a.m. … The Consumer Confidence Index is out at 10 a.m. …Fed Gov. Lisa Cook will speak at an Economic Club of New York luncheon at noon … White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein will speak at a Brookings Institution event on Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Economic Survey of the United States at 2:30 p.m. …

Wednesday … HUD Inspector General Rae Oliver Davis and FHFA Inspector General Brian Tomney will testify at a House Financial Services subcommittee hearing at 10 a.m. … House Financial Services will hold a subcommittee hearing on bank stress tests at 2 p.m. …

Thursday … First-quarter GDP estimate will be revised at 8:30 a.m. … House Financial Services will hold a subcommittee hearing on the role of the Export-Import Bank in regard to economic competition with China at 10 a.m. … House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee holds a hearing on Gensler’s equity market structure reforms at 2 p.m. … President Joe Biden and Former President Donald Trump will debate at 9 p.m.

Friday … Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will deliver a speech in Paris at 6 a.m. … The Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE) for May will be released at 8:30 a.m. … Bowman will participate virtually in a discussion at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute Leadership Council Conference at noon …

Courting Corporate America — Trump has been pivoting on policy as he races to get the backing of top executives at key U.S. companies, Meridith McGraw, Adam Wren, Natalie Allison and Adam Cancryn report. At a Business Roundtable confab earlier this month, he “told the group that ‘we need brilliant people’ in this country, according to one of the attendees, who was granted anonymity to describe a private meeting. And when he talked about finding ways to keep American-educated talent at home, some top CEOs, like Apple’s Tim Cook, were seen nodding their heads … There is also plainly a pattern of Trump aligning his political stances with the views of wealthy donors and business interests.”

— He then used an appearance on the popular “All-In Podcast” — which is co-hosted by David Sacks, one of his biggest supporters in Silicon Valley — to state his belief that foreign nationals who graduate from U.S. colleges and universities should “automatically” be granted a green card.

— He also used two speeches this week to float the concept of a UFC-style fighting league composed of migrants, saying “they’re ‘nasty, mean’ and ‘tough people’ who could beat the country’s top fighters,” Natalie and Jared Mitovich report.

— Meanwhile, the Biden campaign has deployed Vice President Kamala Harris to shore up support on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg’s Akayla Gardner. She reportedly met regularly with executives including Visa Chief Executive Officer Ryan McInerney, Teneo Chairwoman Ursula Burns and former American Express Chief Executive Officer Ken Chenault.

— The FT: “US millionaires support Joe Biden’s plan to tax super-wealthy, poll shows

Outbound out — Treasury on Friday issued a long-awaited proposed rule to restrict American investment in Chinese semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technology, and artificial intelligence, Doug Palmer reports.

The Economy

Tips for making small talk with your Gen Z colleagues — The Washington Post’s Abha Bhattarai and Federica Cocco: “Move over, millennials. There’s a new generation being walloped by the economy. Generation Z has been disproportionately pummeled by rising prices, higher housing costs, larger student loan balances and more overall debt than the millennials before them.”

You want a PCE of May? — The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to show that inflation cooled in May. That could set the stage for rate cuts later this year, Bloomberg’s Vince Golle and Craig Stirling report.

If you can’t trust campaign talking points, what can you trust? — The NYT’s Linda Qiu fact-checked Biden and Trump’s respective claims about the economy. It turns out “both candidates misrepresented inflation.”

Regulatory Corner

Big banks dinged — Regulators at the Fed and FDIC said they found weaknesses in the living wills that were submitted by Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase last year, Michael Stratford reports.

New industrial bank — The FDIC approved the creation of a new industrial bank for the first time during the Biden administration, Michael reports. Those charters are an exception to typical divisions between banking and other commerce.

Toxic — The FDIC is overhauling how it handles employee harassment and discrimination complaints, creating two new independent offices to address workplace issues, according to Michael.

FHFA — The FHFA announced the approval of a Freddie Mac pilot program to purchase certain single-family closed-end second mortgages, Katy O’Donnell reports. The plan has drawn opposition from Republicans, who say it would encourage “equity-stripping” and increase the risk of foreclosure if home prices decline.

 

JOIN US ON 6/26 FOR A TALK ON AMERICA’S SUPPLY CHAIN: From the energy grid to defense factories, America’s critical sites and services are a national priority. Keeping them up and running means staying ahead of the threat and protecting the supply chains that feed into them. POLITICO will convene U.S. leaders from agencies, Congress and the industry on June 26 to discuss the latest challenges and solutions for protecting the supply lines into America’s critical infrastructure. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
 

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