Wall Street is obsessing over the potential economic policy staffing of a Trump administration 2.0. Will it operate like the free-market-oriented old guard of the GOP or be the domain of the ascendant populists? Former President Donald Trump’s pick for vice president may present a big clue. At the moment, it looks like the GOP’s new breed of economic thinkers may have the edge, with Sens. J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio and Tom Cotton reportedly on the shortlist to be Trump’s running mate. Each has been taking swings at conservative orthodoxy around markets and free trade and has shown a willingness to question Wall Street’s role in the economy. It may be good politics in helping expand the GOP’s appeal to more diverse working-class voters. The trio is closely aligned with the think tank American Compass, which has been working to reorient conservatism so that it takes a more skeptical approach toward globalization and financialization while focusing to a greater degree on workers. Having Vance, Rubio or Cotton on the ticket would potentially amplify the agenda. “It speaks to the momentum that this kind of work has within the party, within the conservative movement, that these are the people you see ending up on the shortlist,” American Compass executive director Oren Cass told MM. “To some extent, there’s an alignment with Trump’s own thinking. But there’s also the reality that the people who are the future of the party as everybody understands it are people who think this way.” Vance, Rubio and Cotton have different approaches to overhauling the party's approach to the economy. Vance, a venture capitalist who rose to fame with his memoir about working-class Ohio, has probably been the most provocative of the three. The close Trump ally has teamed up with Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Dick Durbin on legislation challenging big banks and with Sen. Sherrod Brown on rail industry safeguards. He made headlines earlier this year when he said FTC Chair Lina Khan is the “best person” in the Biden administration, a hard break from corporate leaders who despise her antitrust crusade. Rubio, who faced off against Trump in the 2016 presidential primary, has focused on workers in a number of his recent legislative efforts. He’s also trying to nudge Republicans to embrace industrial policy, in a bid to boost national security and the economic prospects for individual Americans. He’s called out Wall Street’s ties to China, including a direct warning to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. “I grew up in that era where the market was always the answer, and I still believe in the market, I still believe that generally, the market outcome is the right outcome,” Rubio said in a conversation with Cass last year. “The challenge has to be now, what do you do when the market outcome and the national interest are in conflict? Because the market says it is more efficient to make medicine in China, to basically make anything in China, but it’s not in our national interest. And it’s certainly not in our national interest to create these pockets of despair as well in America.” Cotton has supported raising the minimum wage in combination with efforts to combat illegal immigration, and he’s leading legislation that would have the government help pay to train workers who don’t go to college. Like Vance and Rubio, he’s found spots to challenge corporate leaders. He's scolded executives for seeking help from Republicans in regulatory clashes with Democrats while their companies take positions at odds with conservatives. Cotton has warned that libertarian ideas “often falter in a world of borders,” and so the U.S. should do more to restrict investment in China and encourage the reshoring of U.S. factories. In a conversation with Cass last year, he outlined why Republicans should care about a potential working-class coalition. “It’s a healthy thing from a policy standpoint because, as we’ve been discussing here, most Americans don’t have college educations,” he said. “Politically it’s a good thing as well because that’s a majority.” Trump will be the dominating force on his ticket no matter who his VP pick is. But Cass sees the potential for a big impact if someone like Vance, Rubio or Cotton is tapped. The senators would bring focus to the issues while Trump might not be as concentrated on policy. They would also bring along their networks of staff and policymakers (plus American Compass). It’s a tone that might need to be approached with care as Trump looks to close a fundraising gap with Biden by hitting up big donors in the business world. “The fact that, regardless of what happens with Trump or in this election, these are the folks who are sort of setting the direction of things going forward just underscores that Wall Street is going to come under a lot more scrutiny and be a lot less central to the right-of-center coalition,” Cass said. It’s Thursday – Send tips to me at zwarmbrodt@politico.com and to Sam at ssutton@politico.com.
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