Friday, April 5, 2024

An earthquake … in the labor market

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Apr 05, 2024 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun and Bethany Irvine

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THE CATCH-UP

President Joe Biden attends a reception celebrating Greek Independence Day in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Thursday, April 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

The latest jobs report is another labor-market boost for President Joe Biden. | Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo

JOBS DAY — The March jobs report blew past expectations today, showing that the labor market — and the economy more broadly — remains in robust health despite the Fed’s sustained higher interest rates.

U.S. employers added 303,000 new jobs last month, way above economists’ predictions of 200,000, and the unemployment rate ticked down from 3.9% to 3.8%, per the new Labor Department data. That marks 39 months in a row of hiring increases and the longest sustained period of sub-4% unemployment in several decades. In another positive indicator, the size of the labor force leapt up in March, signaling that more people are getting off the sidelines to look for employment.

The flip side of a strong labor market, of course, is that quickly rising wages can put pressure on inflation — which continues to be the predominant economic concern for many Americans. But in March, hourly wages were up 4.1% annually, the smallest such increase in three years, “which might allay any such fears,” AP’s Paul Wiseman notes.

The upshot is another very strong outlook for the U.S. economy — and a boost for President JOE BIDEN, who’s still working to yank Americans’ perceptions of the economy out of the gutter. Biden’s White House statement trumpeted “the milestone of 15 million jobs created since I took office.” It’s now looking likelier that the Fed has mostly achieved its soft landing of bringing down inflation without tanking the economy, and that we’ve “reached a healthy equilibrium in which a steady roll of commercial activity, growing employment and rising wages coexist,” NYT’s Talmon Joseph Smith reports. “This report is like the macroeconomist’s Holy Grail,” one economist tells the AP.

Paradoxically, one of the factors propping the economy up is also one of the top issues that has soured Americans on Biden: the surge of immigration, both legal and illegal, over the past couple of years. “Economists think that as immigration adds to the labor supply, job growth can remain strong without overheating the economy,” NYT’s Jeanna Smialek reports. High immigration might also help reduce deficits, Semafor’s Jordan Weissmann reports, and it helps explain why the U.S. has outstripped its peer countries in the post-pandemic recovery.

But, but, but: Inflation still remains higher than the Fed’s target — and than most people would prefer. With prices significantly elevated above their levels from just a few years ago, many Americans’ pessimism about the economy is hard to shake, CNN’s David Goldman notes.

 

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DIPPING INTO CHIPS — Using federal funding from the CHIPS and Science Act, Samsung is planning a massive semiconductor manufacturing expansion in Texas, WSJ’s Jiyoung Sohn and Asa Fitch report. Near Austin, the company intends to boost its investment to $44 billion, more than twice the previous total; it’s still talking with the Commerce Department about getting the subsidy funds. The move “adds fresh momentum to one of President Biden’s marquee domestic agendas,” especially as some other semiconductor projects have hit roadblocks.

Related read: “US, EU eye Chinese legacy chips in renewed semiconductor accord,” by Reuters’ Philip Blenkinsop

BETWEEN THE ROCK AND A HARD PLACE — DWAYNE ‘THE ROCK’ JOHNSON told Fox News’ Will Cain that he won’t make an endorsement in the presidential election. Johnson, who has one of the largest platforms in the world with his massive social media following, said he felt that backing Biden in 2020 had caused too much “division,” and that now “my goal is to bring our country together.”

Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop us a line at eokun@politico.com and birvine@politico.com.

 

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7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken attends the US-EU Trade and Technology Council in Leuven on April 5, 2024. (Photo by Johanna Geron / POOL / AFP) (Photo by JOHANNA GERON/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. will be watching to see if Israel makes good on its pledge to allow more aid into Gaza. | Johanna Geron/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

1. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israel today said it had dismissed two military officers and reprimanded others in the wake of its mistaken deadly strikes on World Central Kitchen aid workers, as fallout from the incident continues to reverberate, per Bloomberg. Speaking in Brussels, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN today said the U.S. will be watching in the next few days and weeks to see if Israel makes good on its new pledge to allow more aid into Gaza, per the NYT. And VP KAMALA HARRIS, who has reportedly become more critical in private of Israel’s actions, spoke with JOSÉ ANDRÉS, a friend of hers, after the WCK killings, NOTUS’ Jasmine Wright reports.

Family members of the hostages still held by Hamas told NBC’s Lester Holt in a group interview that they condemn the killings of civilians and aid workers, but don’t want people to forget that the hostages still need to be saved.

In one potential new move, the Biden administration is getting close to undoing a Trump-era move that forced products made in Jewish West Bank settlements to be labeled as “Made in Israel,” FT’s Felicia Schwartz reports. Though it’s not definite yet, the policy change would ensure that such goods are clearly labeled as coming from settlements. It’s “intended to increase pressure on Israel over rising settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.”

Politically, Biden may not be the only Democrat to face peril from the left over the Israel-Hamas war. Though most coverage has focused on the fallout for the presidential race, The Daily Beast’s Riley Rogerson and Reese Gorman report that progressives are warning their votes for Sens. JON TESTER (D-Mont.), JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.) and other vulnerable Democratic incumbents aren’t guaranteed, due to the senators’ support for Israel.

2. THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF DEMOCRACY: “Local election officials say the Biden administration needs to do more to keep them safe,” by NBC’s Julia Ainsley, Fiona Glisson and Ken Dilanian: “So far, help has been scarce. Fear of interfering with free speech has hindered the government’s effort to squelch false rumors, some of them spread by DONALD TRUMP. Meanwhile, local election officials receive constant threats. … [E]lection security experts say the Biden administration is actually doing less to combat disinformation than the Trump administration did.”

3. A BRIDGE TO SELL YOU: As Biden heads to Baltimore this afternoon to see where the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapsed, the House Freedom Caucus today announced its official position on emergency supplemental funding to rebuild. The group said it wouldn’t support the funding unless Biden first ends a pause on new approvals for liquefied natural gas export terminals and makes other significant concessions. (Of course, Biden appears to be going in a somewhat different direction than an emergency supplemental request.)

Action on the bridge is just one of many priorities Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER laid out in a new Dear Colleague letter previewing the next Senate work session. Schumer said he’d talked with Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and “I believe that he understands the threat of further delaying” aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The Senate will also take up the impeachment of DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS (headed for the trash can), reauthorizing FISA and the FAA, confirming nominees, and more.

Related read: “Larry Hogan burned bridges in Baltimore. Does he have a role in rebuilding one?” by The Baltimore Banner’s Julie Scharper, Jess Nocera and Emily Sullivan

 

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4. WHAT JOHN EASTMAN IS UP TO: “John Eastman wants to keep practicing law, representing Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene – and paying his own bills,” by CNN’s Katelyn Polantz: “According to a court filing this week, Eastman estimates he already owes more than $1 million to his lawyers and could face a bill of more than $3 million ‘even if he is fully exonerated’ in the Georgia election subversion case. … The filing provides a rare window into the growing legal costs for Trump’s allies and into the scope of Eastman’s legal work since he promoted false information about the 2020 vote and tried to persuade then-Vice President MIKE PENCE to block the presidential transfer of power from Trump to Joe Biden.”

5. ANECDOTE OF THE DAY: At a Republican gala in December, Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT (R-Colo.) had so much alcohol that a server refused to bring her more, and Trump’s security detail had to intervene to make her stop trying to take selfies with Trump, CNN’s Melanie Zanona reports. It’s the latest instance of Boebert’s sometimes controversial behavior — though Trump endorsed her nonetheless, and her allies “say her boisterous and loud personality can sometimes be misconstrued.”

6. WHAT SHERROD BROWN IS READING: “Bernie Moreno said an Ohio Confucius Institute closed under his watch. It didn’t,” by the Columbus Dispatch’s Haley BeMiller: “[T]he timing doesn't line up. While [BERNIE] MORENO did chair the board, his term expired three years before Cleveland State shuttered its Confucius Institute. He also held leadership positions when trustees approved university budgets that funded the program. In a statement, Moreno said he helped recruit and hire the president who ultimately chose to shut down the institute.”

7. STRUGGLING TO CONNECT: “Progressive advocacy groups face diminished digital influence,” by FWIW’s Kyle Tharp and Lucy Ritzmann: The groups have “historically played a large role in engaging and informing Democratic activists and voters on social media. Their online grassroots power, however, could be waning. These organizations’ digital influence has been significantly diminished in recent years, driven primarily by changes to Facebook’s algorithm, a decline in X/Twitter usage, and an industry-wide failure to embrace TikTok.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Marjorie Taylor Greene said this morning’s earthquake and Monday’s eclipse are evidence that “God is sending America strong signs to tell us to repent.”

Gretchen Whitmer has a new book coming out in July, “True Gretch.”

Tony Bobulinski is suing Dan Goldman for defamation.

London Breed has a new challenge on her left from Aaron Peskin.

John Paulson doesn’t think Jan. 6 was an insurrection.

IN MEMORIAM — “Richard Benedick, Negotiator of Landmark Ozone Treaty, Dies at 88,” by NYT’s Trip Gabriel: “He played a key role in securing the Montreal Protocol, an international environmental pact to protect the ozone layer by reducing the use of certain chemicals.”

SPOTTED: Rick Santorum and Lynn Friess at the Ritz-Carlton’s Saga restaurant in West End yesterday morning.

OUT AND ABOUT — The American News Women’s Club hosted a reception and awards presentation last night that honored Maureen Dowd, who was both toasted and roasted, and gave scholarships to journalism students. SPOTTED: Elisabeth Bumiller, Michael Isikoff, Claire Swift, Eleanor Clift, Sheilah Kast, Irish Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason, Jill Abramson, Carl Hulse, Ashley Parker, Kevin Dowd, Sally Quinn and Marion Steinfels.

FOR YOUR RADAR — John Arundel of Perdicus Communications was found not guilty Monday on charges of assault and strangulation in Nantucket, Massachusetts. Arundel was charged in August 2022 with misdemeanor assault and battery and felony strangulation following an incident in which a police report alleged he “pushed [a woman] down the stairs and dragged her up the stairs by her hair.” In a statement to Playbook, Arundel says he is “very pleased” with the jury’s verdict. “It was obvious from the beginning of the process that I was innocent of all charges.” A spokesperson for the Cape and Islands District Attorney’s office said they were unaware of any additional investigations or charges. Full statement

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Todd Breasseale will be a senior adviser at the VA. He currently leads the Defense Department’s Office of Information Operations Policy.

TRANSITIONS — Desiree Kennedy is joining the Biden campaign as chief operations officer in North Carolina. She previously was deputy chief of staff for Rep. Nanette Diaz Barragán (D-Calif.). … Steven Bennett is joining the Council on Foreign Relations as EVP and chief administrative officer. He most recently was an SVP at Syracuse University, and is a Brookings alum. …

… Paolo Messa is joining the National Italian American Foundation as EVP of international relations and strategic partnerships. He most recently was chairman of the board of directors of Leonardo US Corporation, and is non-resident senior fellow at the Europe Center of the Atlantic Council. … Kriti Korula is now a legislative fellow for Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.), handling health care. She previously was a legislative correspondent for Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas).

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Correction: The headline of yesterday’s Playbook PM misspelled Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s nickname.

 

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