| | | | |  | | By Melanie Mason, Jeremy B. White, Dustin Gardiner and Lara Korte | Presented by Californians for Energy Independence | | 
Los Angeles City Councilman Kevin de León. | Jay L. Clendenin/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images | THE BUZZ — LA LA LAND: Los Angeles City Council member Kevin de León’s political career was pronounced all but dead in 2022, after he was ensnared in the offensive leaked audio tape scandal that upended City Hall. De León refused to resign despite intense pressure, and now, roughly 16 months later, voters finally get to render their judgment on his reelection bid. Despite the raw emotion and vitriol De León still stirs up, there’s a real chance he’ll make it into the top two. That’s one of the most intriguing storylines we’ll be watching out of California’s biggest city on Tuesday night. And there are other local races that could be close contests or harbingers for bigger battles in November. Here’s a City of Angels primary primer: KDL’S REDEMPTION TOUR Still in a state of quasi-exile at City Hall, where he is barred from committee posts, De León has been able to put in plenty of face time in his district, trusting that old-fashioned retail politics matters more than the cold shoulder from political insiders. He’s got a committed base of supporters who have stuck with him. And most importantly, he faces a fractured field of challengers who have mostly taken it easy on the embattled incumbent. The fiercest jabs against the sitting councilmember have come from Assemblymember Miguel Santiago, a one-time friend and ally who leads the fundraising pack and is papering the district with mailers highlighting the negative headlines that have dogged De León since the controversy broke. A low-turnout election and a diffuse anti-KDL vote could be all the incumbent needs to make it past the primary. But a one-on-one matchup in November is another matter entirely. LAW AND ORDER Facing a similar dynamic is Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón, who may be the most endangered incumbent in the entire county — a stark reversal of fortune after the top prosecutor toppled incumbent Jackie Lacey in 2020 in a signal victory for a national movement toward lighter sentencing and police accountability. Rising concerns about crime and his plummeting approval rating have placed Gascón in deep peril. That vulnerability explains why a dozen people are running — and raising millions of dollars — to replace him. Ex-Republican and former attorney general candidate Nathan Hochman has outraised a pack that includes deputy DAs Eric Siddall, Jonathan Hatami and Maria Lopez; former federal prosecutor Jeff Chemerinsky; and Judges Craig Mitchell and Debra Archuleta. Polls suggest Gascón will get through that teeming field and into the general. But a huge bloc of undecided voters injects more uncertainty. “These are not nobodies,” USC politics Professor Christian Grose said of the challengers. “To me that suggests Gascon is in trouble, certainly for the general and likely for the primary.” IDEOLOGICAL TESTS Los Angeles Councilmember Nithya Raman won her first term the same year as Gascón. Together, those wins were seen as a sign of the ascendant progressive movement in the city. But just like Gascón, Raman faces pushback to her approach and a fierce reelection battle. Her main competitor, Deputy City Attorney Ethan Weaver, has run to Raman’s right on issues such as homelessness and crime, and he’s gotten a swell of outside support from major players such as the firefighters’ union. Races in LA city and county can be won outright in the primary with the majority of votes, so the contest could be settled if either got above 50 percent — though a third competitor in the race, Lev Baronian, could make it difficult for any contender to hit that threshold. One City Hall contest just has two candidates, and therefore will be settled in the primary: the race between incumbent Councilmember John Lee and his Democratic challenger, Serena Oberstein. Lee is the only non-Democrat still sitting on council (formerly a Republican, he’s now registered as no party preference). Democrats now outnumber Republicans in this slice of the West Valley, which had long been the most conservative part of the city. Still, the power of incumbency has been a boon to Lee, who has benefited from more than $1 million in independent expenditure groups boosting his campaign. GOOD MORNING. Happy Friday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. Now you can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts now. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte. WHERE’S GAVIN? Hitting the campaign trail ahead of Tuesday's primary election, encouraging voters to support Proposition 1 (mental-health spending) and Democratic candidates. Newsom will be in Palm Springs today, followed by Los Angeles on Saturday and San Francisco on Monday.
| | | | A message from Californians for Energy Independence: As California transitions to a lower carbon economy, we should continue to produce the oil and gas we still need in-state, where it meets world-class environmental standards and our communities can benefit from the revenues. But instead, California energy policies are shutting down in-state oil production faster than we can build adequate replacement energy - increasing our dependence on more costly imported oil. Get the facts on California Energy Policies | | | |  | CAMPAIGN YEAR | | |  Clockwise from top left: California senate candidates Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, Steve Garvey and Barbara Lee. | Francis Chung/POLITICO; Richard Vogel/AP (bottom right) | ‘STATISTICAL TIE’ — Republican baseball star Steve Garvey and Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and are battling for first place in the latest poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, just released this morning. The poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found that 27 percent of likely voters favored Garvey, followed by Schiff at 25 percent, Rep. Katie Porter at 19 percent, and Rep. Barbara Lee at 8 percent. In what is shaping up to be a historically low-turnout primary election, poll director Mark DiCamillo said Garvey and Schiff are now polling “in a statistical tie.” The large increase in Garvey’s voter support occurred in the last six weeks, DiCamillo writes, by consolidating Republican and conservative voters. A major part of his appeal to primary voters relates to the perception that he will be tougher on the immigration problem than other candidates. Nearly all of his supporters, 94 percent, said that factor was very important. Schiff has also spent millions in TV, digital and mail ads featuring Garvey, apparently aimed at Republicans, describing him as a threat to Democrats’ control of Congress. In a two-way matchup, the poll found Schiff would start with a significant lead over Garvey, 53 percent to 38 percent, with 9 percent undecided — whereas a runoff between Schiff and Porter would start out tied. The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish from Feb. 22 to 27 and captured both Californians who have already voted or are likely to vote on Tuesday. Among those who had already cast a ballot, 35 percent supported Schiff, compared to 28 percent for Garvey and 20 percent for Porter.
|  State Sen. Susan Rubio. | AFP via Getty Images | FAMILIAR TACTIC — Democrats running for an open House seat in the Los Angeles suburbs are apparently taking a page out of the Senate candidate playbook: using Republican opponents like vote-splitting wrecking balls. Former Rep. Gil Cisneros seemingly tried to box out his top Democratic rival, state Sen. Susan Rubio, with a mailer to Republican voters highlighting the major GOP candidate in the primary, Daniel Martinez — calling him “too close to Trump” and noting his opposition to gun restrictions and abortion. Rubio countered with a mass text message to voters, promoting a lesser-known Republican candidate in the crowded primary race. It’s clear why Rubio is worried: Polling from Cisneros’ camp shows he has the edge after spending more than $4.3 million of his own lottery fortune on the race for retiring Rep. Grace Napolitano's seat. But Rubio is locked in a tight contest with Martinez for the second spot and a chance to advance to the November election.
| | | | CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So, we have something cool for you: our California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | CITY BY THE BAY | | | | 
San Francisco Mayor London Breed, right, walks with Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin. | AP | NOT SO FAST — San Francisco Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin said he has warmed to the idea of running for mayor, but he’s nowhere near taking the plunge. A San Francisco Chronicle story published Thursday evening cited sources close to Peskin who said he was in, but he called the idea presumptuous. “I have not decided to jump in, but I’m definitely thinking about it,” he said. Still, Peskin’s testing the waters in a race where close observers believe there’s a clear lane for a progressive to compete given Mayor London Breed and her two major challengers — former interim Mayor Mark Farrell and Levi Strauss heir and nonprofit executive Daniel Lurie — are all moderate-leaning Democrats. “You don’t need to be a political scientist to see that that lane is open and not occupied,” Peskin said. But the longtime supervisor, who’s termed out at the end of this year, said he’s debating whether he’s ready to retire after decades in city politics. He has until mid-June to make a decision. | | | | A message from Californians for Energy Independence:   | | | | | UNDER THE DOME | | |  California Gov. Gavin Newsom after signing a fast-food bill minimum wage bill on Sept. 28. | AP | GETTING TOASTY — Panera Bread is actually not exempt from last year’s law increasing minimum wage for fast food workers, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office said Thursday, disputing a Bloomberg News report that the governor had pushed a carveout for bakeries at the behest of political donor and former high school classmate Greg Flynn. As our colleague Jeremy B. White reports, the administration said an exemption for restaurants that produce their own bread on premises doesn’t apply to the Panera restaurant chain. “The Governor never met with Flynn about this bill and this story is absurd,” spokesperson Alex Stack said in a statement. “Our legal team has reviewed and it appears Panera is not exempt from the law.” The highly-contentious, highly-negotiated fast food bill does contain a carveout for establishments that operate a bakery that produces and sells bread on site as a standalone item. | | | | On the ground in Albany. Get critical policy news and analysis inside New York State. Track how power brokers are driving change across legislation and budget and impacting lobbying efforts. Learn more. | | | | | | | TOP TALKERS | | — Steve Garvey’s former teammates, Dusty Baker and Dave Stewart, are among five former major leaguers to recently endorse Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee. (Los Angeles Times) — A dangerous blizzard continues to wallop Tahoe and parts of the Sierra Nevada, bringing gusts of up to 110-mph and up to 12 feet of snow at the highest peaks. Conditions were expected to continue to worsen Friday. (Los Angeles Times) — Downtown San Francisco’s half-empty Westfield mall will be renamed the Emporium Centre San Francisco, a nod to the first department store on the West Coast. It’s part of an effort to revive the mall with events, new branding and art. (San Francisco Chronicle)
| | | | A message from Californians for Energy Independence: California faces a $68 billion deficit, a rising cost of living, and has some of the highest gas prices in the country. Now, California energy policies could make matters worse.
That’s because California is shutting down in-state oil and gas production before we have adequate replacement power. That forces our state to spend $25 billion a year importing more costly oil to meet our needs - sending billions that could be supporting California’s economy out of state instead. These energy policies threaten California’s access to reliable energy, while increasing our gas and utility prices.
As California transitions to a lower carbon economy, we should continue to produce the oil and gas we still need in-state, where it meets world-class environmental standards and our communities can benefit from the revenues - rather than increase our dependence on more costly imported oil.
Get the facts on California Energy Policies | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | SPOTTED: BOCA BIRTHDAY — Rep. Adam Schiff wished his 96-year-old father, Ed Schiff, a happy birthday in an X post Thursday. “Hope your day is as relaxed as we were when this photo was taken on Thanksgiving a couple years ago,” Schiff tweeted along with a pic of the duo passed out in reclining chairs. He also quipped that his dad was only 24 in leap years. Happy belated birthday, Boca Eddie! TRANSITIONS — Mike Madrid, a veteran Republican strategist who co-founded The Lincoln Project, will serve as a senior fellow this spring and fall at UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology. He will work on the school’s “Red County, Blue County, Orange County” project and host its video and podcast series. “The balance of power in this country will be determined by the demographics that play an outsized role in Orange County,” Madrid said. BIRTHDAYS — Nigel Duara ... Joshua Marin-Mora, field representative for Assemblymember Rick Chavez Zbur… (was Thursday): Assemblymember Vince Fong … state Sen. Catherine Blakespear … CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here. Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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