| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | JUST IN — “BRUSSELS (AP) — The leaders of the 27 European Union countries sealed a deal Thursday to provide Ukraine with a new 50-billion-euro ($54 billion) support package despite Hungary’s weeks of threats to veto the move.” TALKER — ROBERTA KAPLAN, one of the lead attorneys for E. JEAN CARROLL, speaks to Ankush Khardori for POLITICO Mag: “She Cross-Examined Trump and Won. Prosecutors May Want to Take Note.” TAX BILL COMETH — Last night, the House passed a $78 billion tax package that expands the child tax credit (a priority for many Democrats) while restoring a trio of tax breaks for businesses (a priority for many Republicans). If that sounds like an odd moment of bipartisanship, it is: The bill passed 357-70, with the “no” votes coming from a coterie of progressives on the left and conservatives on the right. More from Benjamin Guggenheim The bill now heads to the Senate, where key Republican senators are indicating strong opposition to several aspects of the deal — including the politics. Sen. CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa) said the quiet part out loud to Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig: “I think passing a tax bill that makes the president look good mailing out checks before the election, means he could be reelected and then we won’t extend the 2017 tax cuts.” (That’s not actually true, as Zeballos-Roig previously debunked.)
|  Donald Trump’s constellation of political committees spent more than they raised in 2023. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | FILING FRENZY — If you haven’t checked your calendar app yet this morning, it’s Feb. 1 in an election year. And for true political obsessives, that means one thing: The FEC filing deadline has passed, and we can now pop the hood of every federal campaign and political action committee and test the machinery driving the 2024 election. Here’s what you should know … DONALD TRUMP’S BURN RATE: Trump’s constellation of political committees spent more than they raised in 2023. Why? Two words: legal bills. “Two of Donald Trump’s political action committees spent an astonishing $29 million in legal consulting and legal fees in the second half of last year, leaving only $5 million in his leadership PAC’s coffers,” our Meridith McGraw and Jessica Piper report. “In total, the former president spent roughly $50 million in donor funds on legal expenses over the course of 2023. All told his web of committees, in aggregate, spent roughly $210 million during the 2023 calendar year while raising a bit shy of $200 million over the same period.” BIDEN’S GOOD, BUT NOT GREAT, QUARTER: In aggregate, committees affiliated with President JOE BIDEN (i.e. his campaign, affiliated committees and the DNC) raised $97.1 million in Q4 of 2023, and began 2024 with $117.4 million in cash on hand. That’s less than Trump had at this stage in 2020. But it’s a healthier financial position than Trump in 2024. RFK’S STRANGE BEDFELLOWS: TIMOTHY MELLON, an heir to the Mellon banking dynasty, donated $10 million to ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.’s American Values 2024 super PAC this fall — atop the $5 million he gave earlier in 2023. That a Mellon would have fondness for a Kennedy is not in itself shocking — the two monied families have connections charting back generations. But what is worth some thought is the fact that, as Reuters’ Alexandra Ulmer and Jason Lange note, Mellon is also a major donor to Trump, having contributed $15 million to the MAGA Inc. super PAC during 2023. With polls showing that Kennedy might siphon votes from Biden to Trump’s benefit, it’s enough to raise some real questions about the motivation behind the money. THE RACE FOR THE SENATE: — Arizona: KARI LAKE “ended 2023 with relatively little money in the bank,” write Madison Fernandez, Jessica Piper and Ally Mutnick. “She raised $2 million in the roughly 11 weeks after she entered the race, but she quickly spent nearly half that haul. That left her starting 2024 with a little over $1 million in the bank — and $308,000 in debt.” That cash-on-hand figure is anemic compared to independent Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (almost $11 million) and Democratic Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO (almost $7 million). Related read: Lake is set to headline a campaign fundraiser tomorrow hosted by two wealthy QAnon supporters, according to our colleague Daniel Lippman. The invitation … The backstory on the donors — California: “Baseball star Steve Garvey raises $600,000 in California Senate race,” by Lara Korte: “Garvey … did not contribute any of his own money to his campaign, according to federal election filings.” — Michigan: Democratic Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN raised $2.8 million in Q4 and began the year with roughly $6 million on hand — “out-raising her opponents by millions of dollars,” writes the Detroit News’ Melissa Nann Burke. Republicans MIKE ROGERS and SANDY PENSLER each have about $1 million on hand, and former Rep. PETER MEIJER had just under $400,000 on hand. — New Jersey: Indicted Democratic Sen. BOB MENENDEZ “raised just shy of $16,000 in the last three months of 2023 — and refunded all of it,” report Hailey Fuchs and Dustin Racioppi. Meanwhile, first lady TAMMY MURPHY raised $3.2 million in Q4, “nearly doubling the amount her chief rival for the Democratic nomination, Rep. ANDY KIM,” putting the two challengers on more or less equal footing as 2024 began, writes Katherine Dailey. Breaking it all down: “Biden’s money machine, Trump’s legal bills and other takeaways from the 2024 money race,” by Steven Shepard and Jessica Piper Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Instagram: Parents should be able to decide which apps are right for their teens.
Apps can teach teens skills or ignite their creativity. But with access to so many apps, parents should have a say in which ones their teens download.
That’s why Instagram wants to work with Congress to require parental approval wherever teens under 16 download apps.
Learn more. | | | ABOUT LAST NIGHT — Yesterday evening, the Washington Press Club Foundation held its 78th annual congressional dinner, honoring JANET HOOK with its lifetime achievement award, ELISABETH BUMILLER with its “crystal candlestick” award for editorial leadership and NICK GRUBE and TAL KOPAN for excellence in regional reporting on Congress. And then it was on to the jokes. Well, kinda. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER started things off strong enough with some Catskillian zingers before House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES mostly skipped the comedy in favor of an extended “Game of Thrones” riff. Rep. BLAKE MOORE (R-Utah) then earned a few chuckles in introducing GOP headliner Rep. LISA McCLAIN (R-Mich.), whose material, to be kind, did not match her madcap energy. Let’s just say that if you understood McClain’s five-minute-long swimming analogy for governing in the majority versus serving in the minority, you are more than welcome to write in and explain it to us. The laughs-per-second champion, in fact, was the pol who didn’t show: a flu-bound Sen. TINA SMITH (D-Minn.), who delivered a minute-long video greeting full of Minnesota Shade: “I would feel terrible if I showed up and got everybody sick. The only way it would have worked is if everybody had agreed to get up and leave the room when I started talking. You know, kind of like a DEAN PHILLIPS rally.” “Poor Dean,” she added, “he took a real beating in New Hampshire, but he’s staying on the ballot for South Carolina because you can’t spell Dean Phillips with only one L.” Other laugh lines … Schumer, on the Senate border talks: “Leader [MITCH] McCONNELL and I have been working very hard to move negotiations forward and keep the spirit of bipartisanship alive. I guess you could say I’ve got 99 problems, but Mitch ain’t one.” Jeffries, on his first year as party leader: “I had to ask the question, what exactly have I gotten myself into? Then I looked on the bright side — I could be [Speaker] MIKE JOHNSON.” Moore, on optics: “I voted for the tax package in a tuxedo tonight. Honestly, I can’t think of anything more swampy than that.” McClain, describing Congress: “It’s simple … just exactly like being back in high school. … You had the outcast clique … the weirdos. … We got those same people in Congress, they’re called the Freedom Caucus.” SPOTTED at the POLITICO-hosted afterparty: Reps. Rudy Yakym (R-Ind.), Scott Peters (D-Calif.), Kat Cammack (R-Fla.), Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), Garret Graves (R-La.), Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), Sean Casten (D-Ill.) and Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), Joe Schatz, Burgess Everett, Kate Irby, Elana Schor, Daniella Diaz, Eleanor Mueller, Jordain Carney, Nicholas Wu, Ursula Perano, Olivia Beavers, Manu Raju, Sahil Kapur, Jason Dick, Christie Stephenson, Harry Dunn, Igor Bobic, Arthur Delaney, Paul Kane, Connor O’Brien, Sam Brodey, Emma Dumain, Matt Fuller, Matt Corridoni, Jon Tamari, Al Weaver, Lisa Mascaro, JP Freire and Kelsey Snell. Pics SMART READ — “On the margin, political factors favor Trump’s candidacy, while economic factors favor Biden’s.” That’s the one-sentence TL;DR from the new 2024 election model from Moody’s Analytics. We recommend reading the whole thing — economists and authors MARK ZANDI, BRENDAN LACERDA and JUSTIN BEGLEY project a narrow Biden win, but go deep on the economic and political variables at play. A few highlights that stood out to us: (1) They believe that the election “will likely be determined in Pennsylvania”; (2) “All else equal, if gas prices surge back close to $4 per gallon, Trump will win”; (3) they see North Carolina flipping to Biden and Arizona flipping to Trump; and (4) if the third-party vote share increases by one standard deviation, it flips the election to Trump, all else equal.
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House will meet at 9 a.m., with last votes expected by 3 p.m. Jeffries will hold his weekly press conference at 11 a.m. The Senate is in. 3 things to watch …
- As Congress continues to hem and haw over border talks, Sen. JAMES LANKFORD is facing a make-or-break moment as the lead GOP negotiator, Burgess Everett, Ursula Perano and Anthony Adragna write: “Lankford himself is becoming a target, facing criticism from Republicans back in Oklahoma and public — if indirect — skepticism of his deal-making acumen from many conservatives whom he's usually aligned with.”
- With homeownership out of reach for many Americans, the issue of housing affordability is getting more attention in Congress than at any time in years, our colleagues Eleanor Mueller and Katy O’Donnell report. “Republicans and Democrats in the House and Senate are pushing dozens of bills to address the problem, covering everything from expanding a key rural housing program to providing tax credits to lower-income first-time homebuyers.”
- JAMES BIDEN, the president’s younger brother, has agreed to appear for a private interview with the House Oversight Committee on Feb. 21, the panel announced yesterday That’s “just days before the president’s son HUNTER BIDEN will be deposed in private by the Republican-run committee, which has been investigating the Biden family’s overseas finances for the past year,” AP’s Farnoush Amiri writes.
At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning before traveling to the Capitol to attend the National Prayer Breakfast. In the afternoon, Biden will travel to the Detroit metro area, where he is scheduled to participate in a campaign event. Biden will head to New Castle, Delaware, in the evening. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and JOHN KIRBY will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to Michigan. VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive briefings and conduct internal meetings with staff.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | CONGRESS
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Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is trying to move Democrats on the Israel-Hamas war. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | BERN NOTICE — Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) sits down with N.Y. Mag’s Gabriel Debenedetti for a frank conversation about his efforts to move the Biden administration and his Democratic colleagues on calling for a cease-fire in the Israel-Gaza war. “Sanders is mostly sympathetic to Biden, a stance he’s maintained throughout the past three years, as he’s balanced being a team player and a progressive agitator with the president’s ear. “He’s also tried signaling that he’s being a political realist when he speaks up now. ‘They are feeling more and more political pressure, trust me. They’re feeling it,’ he told me.” Sanders continued, offering his thoughts on what Biden will need to do for reelection: “They’re going to have to listen to the Democratic base, which is quite broad. I’m not just talking about young people, I’m not just talking about progressives. And they’re going to have to be rethinking their policies and telling [Israeli PM BENJAMIN] NETANYAHU that this will not continue.” More top reads:
- How we got here: “How Cori Bush’s private security payments prompted a criminal investigation,” by the Washington Examiner’s Gabe Kaminsky, with this interesting nugget: “‘The [Office of Congressional Ethics] investigation was completed a number of months ago,’ OCE spokesman WILLIAM BEAMAN told the Washington Examiner, noting he has ‘no idea’ what the Justice Department is specifically investigating. ‘Could be quite different from the scope of our investigation.’”
ALL POLITICS
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GOP House candidate Mazi Pilip has declined to say whether she even voted for Donald Trump in 2020. | Adam Gray/Getty Images | SPECIAL TREATMENT — Democrats are expected to make Trump the boogeyman in a host of congressional races across the country this year as they try to take back the House. But in the early test of each party’s 2024 mettle, the former president is nowhere to be found. In the special election for New York’s 3rd Congressional District to replace ousted Rep. GEORGE SANTOS, Republicans have thus far tried to ignore the frontrunning Trump. In fact, GOP candidate MAZI PILIP has declined to say whether she even voted for Trump in 2020 and said only that she will back the GOP nominee this year, Emily Ngo reports from New York. Dem candidate TOM SUOZZI, meanwhile explained the lack of presidential posturing this way: “He’s not very popular. Neither is Biden. And you know what? The race really is about me versus Mazi Pilip.” Meanwhile: The Congressional Leadership Fund, a Johnson-aligned super PAC, is pouring more cash into the race, preparing to spend $2.6 million on TV ads to aid Pilip in the final two weeks of the race, Ally Mutnick reports. More top reads:
- Senate Leadership Fund, the McConnell-aligned super PAC, “funded a PAC that spent $895,000 on ads in the West Virginia GOP Senate primary” boosting the frontrunner, Gov. JIM JUSTICE, The Messenger’s Matt Holt scooped yesterday (before the site shuttered). The spending, Holt reports, “was an offensive play to ensure that [Democratic Sen. JOE] MANCHIN didn’t make a last-second reversal and decide to get back into the race.”
- Sen. SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio), one of the top targets for Republicans in their bid to flip the Senate, is placing his first TV ad of the cycle starting today, per Medium Buying.
2024 WATCH ANOTHER BORDER DIVIDE — Trump met with Teamsters President SEAN O’BRIEN and other officials yesterday for a closely watched meeting as the former president and Biden jockey for the influential union org’s endorsement — and from the reports on both sides, it seems like Trump may have an uphill battle. Trump and O’Brien sharply disagreed over closing the southern border, they said in dueling news conferences following the roughly hourlong interview, Brittany Gibson reports. More from Trump: During his presser, Trump also weighed in for the first time on the planned sale of U.S. Steel to a Japanese company, saying he would ax the deal. “I would block it instantaneously. Absolutely,” Trump said. “We saved the steel industry. Now, U.S. Steel is being bought by Japan. So terrible.” More from Gavin Bade and Brittany
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Biden administration officials negotiating on the Israel-Hamas war are now “pushing for a cease-fire deal that could stop the war in Gaza long enough to stall Israel’s military momentum and potentially set the stage for a more lasting truce,” WSJ’s Summer Said, Jared Malsin and Gordon Lubold report. A draft agreement for the latest pause would see a six-week cease-fire with “subsequent phases” of stoppage as well. “U.S. negotiators, led by Central Intelligence Agency Director WILLIAM BURNS, argue that it would be difficult for Israel to resume the war at its current intensity after a long pause.” The view from Foggy Bottom: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN has “asked the State Department to conduct a review and present policy options on possible U.S. and international recognition of a Palestinian state after the war in Gaza,” Axios’ Barak Ravid reports. “While U.S. officials say there has been no policy change, the fact the State Department is even considering such options signals a shift in thinking within the Biden administration on possible Palestinian statehood recognition, which is highly sensitive both internationally and domestically.” MEDIAWATCH
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The Messenger founder Jimmy Finkelstein said the outlet's shutdown would be “effective immediately.” | Evan Agostini/AP Photo | THE DAY THEY SHOT THE MESSENGER — The Messenger officially shut down yesterday, ending weeks of speculation about the fledgling news startup’s future and putting another swath of journalists out of jobs, capping off what has been one of the most grim months for the state of journalism in recent memory. In announcing the news, founder JIMMY FINKELSTEIN said the shutdown would be “effective immediately,” telling staff that the decision was “truly the last thing I wanted, and I am deeply sorry.” Indeed, the cutoff was swift: By the evening, The Messenger’s website was inaccessible, leaving staff with no digital footprint of their work for the publication. Inside the newsroom: “Several sources told The Daily Beast that in the immediate moments after the news was first reported by the [New York] Times, employees still had not been informed that The Messenger was shutting down. ‘I am not in the loop. Trying to find out now,’ editor-in-chief DAN WAKEFORD wrote in the site’s general Slack at 3:57 p.m. ET. Moments after that message was sent, sources added, the site’s Slack was taken down,” The Daily Beast’s Justin Baragona reports. The dire situation: “Over eight painful and humiliating months, The Messenger spent around $43 million, generated a mere $3 million in annual revenue, and, by the end of 2023, had less than $1 million in cash on hand. Needless to say, this was well short of the necessary cash to sustain its $5-million-a-month burn rate,” Puck’s Dylan Byers writes. The big picture: “By closing less than a year after it launched, The Messenger will now be one of the biggest busts in the annals of online news. And its collapse is the most substantial blow in recent months to the news industry, which is reeling from an unrelenting series of cutbacks,” NYT’s Benjamin Mullin writes. THE ECONOMY FED UP — The Fed yesterday held interest rates steady and indicated that the decision of when it will lower rates again may not come for a while, Victoria Guida reports. “The central bank’s policy-setting committee said it doesn’t expect to lower rates ‘until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.’ Fed Chair JEROME POWELL went even further in his press conference, saying it was unlikely that the committee would reach that level of confidence by March.”
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | John Podesta is taking John Kerry’s post. Rich McCormick took his workout to, uh, new heights at the Capitol yesterday. Liz Cheney thinks Taylor Swift is a “national treasure.” SPOTTED: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in the self-checkout line at Safeway yesterday. Pic PLAYBOOK REAL ESTATE SECTION — “Dianne Feinstein’s Longtime Washington, D.C., Home Hits the Market,” by WSJ’s E.B. Solomont OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a fifth-anniversary celebration for the For Country Caucus at Hawk n Dove yesterday evening: Reps. Jake Ellzey (R-Texas), Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Steve Womack (R-Ark.), Jim Baird (R-Ind.), Zach Nunn (R-Iowa), Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), Scott Franklin (R-Fla.), Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), Don Davis (D-N.C.), Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.) and Morgan Luttrell (R-Texas). — SPOTTED celebrating Craft founder Brian Donahue’s birthday at Balos on Tuesday night: John Bozzella, Steve Caldeira, Rhonda Bentz, Carolyn Cawley, Elizabeth Baker Keffer, Marie Sylla Dixon, Andrew Powaleny, Lou Hayden, Steve Clemons, Peter Cherukuri, Betsy Fischer Martin, David O’Brien and Matt Hendrickson. TRANSITIONS — Christine Wilson is now a senior adviser in Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer’s antitrust practice. She most recently was an FTC commissioner. … Mary Jane Truemper is now campaign manager for Dan Frei, who has launched a primary challenge to Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.). She’s been active in Nebraska GOP politics and previously managed Bacon’s 2018 campaign. … Lucas Stockslader is now associate VP at Precision. He previously was director of research operations at Morning Consult. … … SMI is adding Nick Vance as a director and Jason Mello as a senior adviser. Vance most recently was a professional staff member for the House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee. Mello is a retired Air Force colonel and former president of Firefly Aerospace. … David Mann is returning to Holland & Knight as a senior policy adviser. He most recently was VP of external affairs at Oberon Fuels. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) … Marc Elias of Elias Law Group … Fred Barnes … Ali Dukakis … ABC’s Jordyn Phelps … Adrian Carrasquillo … Crossroads Strategies’ Mat Lapinski … Rachel Walker … Matt Moon of Narrative Strategies … David Barnhart … Miguel Ayala of Rep. Steven Horsford’s (D-Nev.) office … Aria Kovalovich … Natalie Cucchiara of Lot Sixteen … Michael Frias … The Intercept’s Ken Klippenstein … Tara McGowan … Visa’s Kayla Primes … Jason Russell … Meaghan Burdick of 14th Street Strategies … CBS’ Alana Anyse … NBC’s Catherine Kim … Chase Adams of the National Pork Producers Council … Alexa Kissinger … AIPAC’s Tara Brown … Bloomberg’s Michelle Jamrisko … POLITICO’s Gabrielle Harrington, Lara Priluck, Sean Jennings, Taran McLaughlin and Taylor Joiner … Lauren Pickett … State Department’s Gray Barrett … Gavin Wilde … Ciara Rascona of Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s office … Jake Siewert … BGR Group’s Anna Sullivan … Senate Working Group’s James Kimmey Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from Instagram: Parents should be able to decide which apps are right for their teens.
Giving parents a say in which apps are right for their teens helps them support their teens in having a positive experience online.
That’s why Instagram wants to work with Congress to require parental approval wherever teens under 16 download apps.
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