| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | WHAT YOUR MEDIA FRIENDS ARE TEXTING ABOUT — The Economist’s James Bennet is out with a very buzzy, nearly 17,000-word piece on the culture war roiling his former employer, the New York Times. A couple of choice lines:
- “The Times’s problem has metastasised from liberal bias to illiberal bias, from an inclination to favour one side of the national debate to an impulse to shut debate down altogether.”
- “The reality is that the Times is becoming the publication through which America’s progressive elite talks to itself about an America that does not really exist." Much, much more at the link
MOMENTUM SHIFT? — The House and Senate are set to leave town today until Jan. 8 without a Ukraine-border deal in hand, but there were further signs of life for bipartisan talks last night, Burgess Everett reports: “Sens. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) and JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.) met [on Wednesday] for roughly two hours with leadership aides and top Biden administration officials, including Department of Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS. “Murphy indicated talks are moving in a positive direction after stalling out earlier this month. … ‘There’s still no reason we can’t finish this by the time we wrap up for the year.’” Today’s big question: Will the Senate stay or will the Senate go? Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER filed cloture last night on two nominees, suggesting he’ll keep members in Washington until tomorrow at least.
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President Joe Biden speaks in the Rose Garden on April 8, 2021. | Andrew Harnik/AP | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: INSIDE THE POLITICS OF A BORDER DEAL — The Biden White House’s justification for engaging in U.S.-Mexico border negotiations with Republicans in return for a new tranche of Ukraine aid has sounded something like this: Democracy and our national security is at stake. Stopping Russia now means avoiding a direct confrontation with Moscow — possibly another world war. But there’s a simpler, albeit more callous, reason: The politics of a border pivot are good for President JOE BIDEN. At least that’s the central finding of a recent poll commissioned by Blueprint, a new public opinion research firm backed by megadonor REID HOFFMAN with the aim of delivering tough talk to Democrats in order to secure Biden’s re-election. The study, shared with Playbook exclusively, found that:
- Voters align more with DONALD TRUMP than Biden on immigration, asylum and the border: 56% of voters said Biden is “far more” or “somewhat more” liberal than they are on the matter — with a majority of independents saying Biden is “far more liberal” than them. Forty-four percent of voters said Trump is close to their views. Only 25% said the same of Biden.
- More than half of respondents (52%) said they want the U.S. to reduce the number of refugees and asylum seekers it takes in, and a similar amount (53%) said they want a higher bar for granting asylum and refugee status. By contrast, only 17% want to allow in more refugees, and 14% said rules for granting asylum should be looser.
- A majority of voters (55%, including 63% of independents) prefer a deal that ties foreign aid to stricter border security to one that doesn’t address the border at all.
“The current Ukraine and Israel aid negotiations offer Biden an opportunity to positively realign voter perceptions of his immigration policy.” EVAN ROTH SMITH, Blueprint’s head pollster, said in a statement. “Self-identified Democrats and independents both support a deal by an 8-point margin. These are the voters we need to win elections, and Biden would disappoint far more of them through inaction than he'd alienate through a well-structured deal on the border and foreign aid.” See full results here The advice to hug the center at the expense of the base has proven fruitful for Democratic presidents in the past. Party elders still recall how President BILL CLINTON passed welfare reform and a crime bill before his re-election, giving him a boost with independents and swing voters. But not everyone agrees that such a strategy will work — the 1990s, after all, were a long time ago. ON THE LEFT: In recent days, the administration has suggested to Republicans that in exchange for Ukraine aid, they’re open to (1) making it harder for migrants to seek asylum, and (2) making it easier for the government to expel them — major potential concessions that already have the left in a tizzy. Progressives, immigration advocates and Latino lawmakers are complaining that the White House is engaging in talks about the border at all, and warn that they won’t support any crackdown that resembles Trump’s immigration policies. “I’m an absolute no on any bill that’s going to change asylum status or remove parole,” Rep. DELIA RAMIREZ (D-Ill.) told our colleagues Jennifer Haberkorn, Burgess Everett and Nicholas Wu. “We shouldn’t be scapegoating immigrant lives over our supplemental.” But it’s not just vote count that should concern Biden: Progressives warn that the appearance that he’s selling out migrants in exchange for Ukraine aid will alienate the Democratic base and hurt him in his reelection bid. As we reported yesterday, the progressive group Immigration Hub warned the White House that “extreme concessions on immigration” would have “immense and detrimental consequences on critical battleground voters, including Latinos, Independents and the base.” So far, the White House seems more sympathetic with those calculating that a deal will help politically more than it will hurt Biden. And Biden allies argue that it seems unlikely their supporters will ultimately turn on the president when Trump, abortion rights and health care are also on the ballot. ON THE RIGHT: The politics of a bipartisan border deal have also given some Republicans pause. Some wonder if they should cut a border deal when polling consistently shows that immigration is the most toxic issue on the campaign trail for Biden. Why take that off the table as an attack on him in 2024? Some think the talk of a deal ultimately will not amount to much. Rep. SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.) told Playbook that there’s no way Biden will be willing to swallow the kind of concessions Republicans are demanding. “I'm not worried because I'm not going to make a deal that's going to be terrible — and I don't think he's going to be willing to make a deal that I will accept,” the former Freedom Caucus chairman said. But others aren’t so sure. Several Republicans acknowledged to Playbook that they do think an immigration deal could help Biden in 2024. Yet at the same time, backing border fortifications, they argue, is as fundamental to being a Republican as being anti-abortion. “I’m not even gonna worry about that — it's too important for the state of Texas and for this country,” border hawk Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) said when asked about a deal helping Biden in 2024. “We’ve got to stop the flow. …. Secure the border. If that helps Biden politically, so be it.” Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. WAKE UP, READ PLAYBOOK — We have an exciting update for Playbook readers: Starting Dec. 18, all Playbook subscribers will also receive Playbook PM every Monday through Friday. As a member of the Playbook community, you will get a double dose of scoops, storylines and analysis every weekday as we enter a newsy election year. No need to take action: You will receive your first PM edition on the 18th if you aren’t subscribed already. Thank you for being a part of the Playbook community. CHRISTMAS IN MOSCOW — “In Annual News Conference, Putin Says His War Aims Have Not Changed,” by NYT’s Valerie Hopkins and Anton Troianovski: “The deadlock over military aid for Ukraine in the U.S. Congress has made [VLADIMIR] PUTIN’s long-term bet that his country will outlast adversaries appear more realistic … ‘They’re getting everything as freebies,’ Mr. Putin told the news conference, referring to Western arms deliveries to Ukraine. ‘But these freebies can run out at some point, and it looks like they’re already starting to run out.’” DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — Speaking to POLITICO’s “Power Play” podcast, ALEXANDER YUI, Taiwan’s new top diplomat in Washington and former envoy to the EU, says the U.S. and its allies must “not look the other way” in the face of potential aggression from China. Listen here
| | | | A message from Google: American Airlines uses Google AI to help reduce the climate impact of contrails. A collaboration between American, Google Research and Breakthrough Energy is demonstrating that AI can be used to help avoid forming contrails, which account for roughly 35% of aviation’s global warming impact. Learn more. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate is in. The House will meet at 9 a.m. with last votes expected at 3 p.m. 3 things to watch …
- The Senate cleared the annual National Defense Authorization Act on a 87-13 vote yesterday, and now it’s the only thing standing between the House and three weeks of holiday recess. It’s going to pass today — almost certainly, anyway — but keep an eye on how big the conservative backlash is to the omission of culture war amendments dealing with transgender health care and drag shows, as well as the inclusion of a temporary extension for the surveillance program known as Section 702.
- The House’s party-line vote formally authorizing an impeachment inquiry yesterday puts lawmakers on a glide path toward an actual impeachment, if history is any guide. But the timeline is in question. House GOP leaders are eyeing a late-January go/no-go decision, Jordain Carney writes, but the choice might be dictated by math more so than evidence: The three-seat Republican majority will shrink from resignations before then, making near-total unanimity essential.
- Today is the 11th anniversary of the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, which left 20 first-graders and six teachers dead in Connecticut and sparked a new push for federal gun control laws that has yet to be consummated. House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES and his Democratic colleagues will mark the anniversary with an event on the House steps later this morning.
At the White House Biden will deliver remarks on prescription drug pricing at the National Institutes of Health in the afternoon. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and JOHN KIRBY will brief at 1 p.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will host a holiday reception in the morning.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
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VP Kamala Harris speaks at the COP28 Climate Conference in Dubai on Dec. 2. | Sean Gallup/Getty Images | HARRIS PRESSES WHITE HOUSE ON GAZA — As the Biden administration measures its response to the Israel-Hamas war, Harris has been telling colleagues that she wants the White House — including President Biden — to show more concern for the Palestinian civilians and humanitarian damage in Gaza, Eugene and Holly Otterbein report this morning. “In internal conversations about the war in Gaza, Harris has argued that it is time to start making ‘day after’ plans for how to handle the wreckage of the war once the fighting ends, one senior administration official said.” One source said Harris believes the United States should be “tougher” on Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. She has also called for being “more forceful at seeking a long-term peace and two-state solution.” “Harris’ private push … underscores the delicacy of the tight political partnership that Harris has developed with Biden, despite some longstanding differences in perspective.” More top reads:
- Family members of American hostages held by Hamas spoke with Biden yesterday in a lengthy meeting, which the relatives later said “strengthened their faith in the administration’s efforts to bring their loved ones home,” Adam Cancryn writes.
- National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN traveled to Saudi Arabia yesterday, where he met with Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN to discuss the crisis in Gaza, Adam also reports. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN is set to travel to the Middle East next week for his second trip to the region since Hamas’ October attack. More from Lara Seligman
TRUMP CARDS
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Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis speaks during a news conference at the Fulton County Government building in Atlanta, Georgia. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | WHAT WILLIS IS TALKING ABOUT — Fulton County DA FANI WILLIS sat down with the AP for an exclusive interview this week, where she “declined to say whether she or her team has been in touch with U.S. Justice Department special counsel JACK SMITH, who has filed federal charges in an election interference case against Trump in Washington,” Kate Brumback writes from Atlanta. “She also raised the possibility that more of Trump’s 18 co-defendants in the Georgia case could take plea deals, further paring down the number who could go on trial with him.” More top reads:
- The civil fraud trial against Trump in Manhattan saw its last witness take the stand yesterday but the verdict in the trial is still at least a month away, as the proceedings pause for a break. Closing arguments in the case are scheduled for Jan. 11. More from Erica Orden in New York
| | | | A message brought to you by Google: American Airlines shows verifiable contrail avoidance is possible with Google AI. Contrails have a surprisingly large impact on our climate, but American Airlines is finding that AI can make verifiable contrail avoidance possible. They teamed up with Google Research and Breakthrough Energy - who brought together huge amounts of data—like satellite imagery, weather, and flight path data—and used AI to develop contrail forecast maps to test if pilots can avoid creating contrails. “We put the tool in the pilot’s hand and then we can determine either to climb a little higher or to descend a little lower,” says Capt. John Dudley, Managing Director of Flight Operations. Read more about how AI is improving sustainability. | | | ALL POLITICS
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COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber and John Kerry, U.S. special presidential envoy for climate, pose for photos at the end of the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit on Wednesday in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. | Kamran Jebreili /AP | COP TO IT — The end of the COP28 summit offers a chance to take stock of how the White House’s climate agenda is landing with just under a year to go until the election. Biden made ample pledges on the 2020 trail that attracted young climate-minded activists to support him. But ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the pandemic-driven economic disruptions scrambled global energy markets, those ideas have been challenged as the administration adopted a softer tone toward the oil and gas industry. However, while the RNC has been quick to assert the COP28 outcomes reflected “Biden’s anti-U.S. energy agenda,” experts on public sentiment see little evidence the global agreement in Dubai will shift many Americans’ opinions in next year’s presidential contest, our colleagues Ben Lefebvre and Catherine Morehouse report. The nitty gritty: “The 2 days that salvaged a climate deal,” by Karl Mathiesen, Sara Schonhardt, Zia Weise and Zack Colman in Dubai: “The rescue effort included multiple attempts by U.S. special climate envoy JOHN KERRY and other American officials to reach out directly to the Saudis, eventually settling on text in which continued fossil fuel use would be acceptable as a middle step toward a cleaner future.” POLL POSITION — A new Bloomberg and Morning Consult poll out this morning has bad news for Biden when it comes to young voters: “A plurality of Generation Z swing-state voters — those born in 1997 or later — say Biden is not doing enough to address the burden of student-loan payments, even after he erased $127 billion in such debt in initiatives that are widely thought to be aimed at locking in that key demographic.” More tough results: Biden now trails Trump by 5 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup across the seven swing states polled: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. See the full poll CONGRESS THE HUNTER GATHERING — How exactly did HUNTER BIDEN pull off the surprise news conference outside the Capitol yesterday? With a little help from Rep. ERIC SWALWELL. The California Democrat told our colleagues Betsy Woodruff Swan and Jordain Carney that he reserved the “Senate Swamp” space for the president’s son for both personal and political reasons. IVORY TOWERS — The House yesterday voted 303-126 to approve a measure condemning antisemitism on college campuses and urging Harvard President CLAUDINE GAY and MIT President SALLY KORNBLUTH to resign their posts following their intensely scrutinized testimony last week. More from Katherine Tully-McManus Related read: “Education Dept. Is Investigating Six More Colleges Over Campus Discrimination,” by NYT’s Zach Montague and Tracey Tully PAST LIVES — “Revealed: House speaker did little to fight toxic ‘burn pit’ his father campaigned against,” by The Guardian’s Oliver Laughland in Shreveport, Louisiana and Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Washington FIVE ON IT — “5 ways New York Democrats could reshape the race for the House,” by Bill Mahoney in Albany POLICY CORNER FED UP — The Fed yesterday held steady on interest rates, offering a sign that the inflation fight may be cooling down and indicating that the central bank is likely done raising interest rates, our colleague Victoria Guida writes. “Fed policymakers even went as far as penciling in three rate cuts for 2024.” Related read: “Is Jerome Powell’s Fed Pulling Off a Soft Landing?” by NYT’s Jenna Smialek 2024 WATCH THE TRUMP EFFECT — Trump’s recent comments that he would only be a dictator on Day One if he returns to the White House don’t seem to be souring many of his supporters, WaPo’s Marianne LeVine and Isaac Arnsdorf report from Coralville, Iowa. “Many of Trump’s supporters here, in an area where the former president held a campaign event Wednesday evening, said they appreciated his comments and did not take them to be a literal declaration of an intent to govern as a dictator.” HOW IT’S PLAYING — “GOP presidential hopefuls grapple with Texas abortion case,” by Olivia Alafriz
| | | | POLITICO AT CES® 2024: We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Paul Ryan called Donald Trump an “authoritarian narcissist.” Kari Lake was spotted at a campaign event with Jenna Ryan, who went to prison for her involvement at the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the British Embassy’s “Shed Bar” holiday press bash hosted by comms director Ed Roman and head of media Millie Clark on Tuesday night: Sabrina Singh, Sean Savett, Dean Lieberman, Francesca Chambers, Sara Cook, Emily Goodin, Olivia Beavers, Katherine Doyle, Felicia Schwartz, Rich Edson, Vivian Salama, Abigail Williams, Meridith McGraw, Tom Rogan, Natalie Allison, Nahal Toosi, Alex Ward, Gordon Lubold, Jennifer Hansler, James Franey, Fraser Jackson, Adam Green, Andrea Shalal, Adam Taylor and Michael Crowley. — The Motion Picture Association with Neon and the ACLU hosted a screening of Ava DuVernay’s new film, “Origin,” based on Isabel Wilkerson’s book “Caste.” CNN’s Laura Coates hosted a conversation with DuVernay after the screening. SPOTTED: Myles Frost, Charles Rivkin, Kristin McIntosh, Urmila Venugopalan, Phylicia Rashad, LaToya Foster, John Gibson, Emily Lenzner, Gail MacKinnon, Hope Goins, Stephen Leach, Bob Barnett and Rita Braver. MEDIA MOVE — Randy Lemmerman is rejoining the NYT as senior staff editor in the Washington bureau. He currently is night editor at POLITICO. The announcement FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service is announcing its Spring 2024 fellows: Laura Barrón-López, Machalagh Carr, Val Demings, Dan Lamothe, Deanne Millison and Marc Short. — The DCCC is bringing on a raft of new regional press secretaries: Ellie Dougherty, Lauryn Fanguen, Dan Gottlieb, Aidan Johnson, José Muñoz (who will be Hispanic press secretary) and Mallory Payne. Dougherty previously was a regional press secretary at the DNC. Fanguen previously was a comms manager at Planned Parenthood. Gottlieb previously was senior comms adviser for the Democratic Party of Georgia. Johnson previously was deputy comms director of campaigns at American Bridge 21st Century. Muñoz previously was deputy comms director for United We Dream. Payne previously was deputy comms director for Nevada Coordinated Campaign. NSC ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Laura Daniels is starting at the NSC as a director for Western Europe. She most recently served as special assistant to State Department counselor Derek Chollet, where she had the Europe and legislative affairs portfolios. TRANSITIONS — Hilary Braseth will be executive director of OpenSecrets. She most recently was a public service fellow at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and is an Aspen Institute alum. … Katrina Bishop is now senior director of strategic comms for the American Seed Trade Association. She previously was public affairs director at the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. … Adam Broder is now SVP for external affairs at the Federation of American Hospitals. He most recently was managing director in the public affairs practice at FTI Consulting. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former FBI Director James Comey … John Ullyot of Brighton Strategy Group … Rob Placek … Chuck Rocha … Raffi Williams … Henry R. Muñoz … CNN’s Abigail Crutchfield … POLITICO’s Beth Belton and Ilona Chebotareva … Aubrey Quinn … Sloane Speakman … Elizabeth Wenk of Burness … Cindy Chetti of the National Multifamily Housing Council … Suzanne Wrasse … American Council of Engineering Companies’ Allison Schneider … Stephanie Allen of the SEC … Pierce Wiegard … Matt Duss of the Center for International Policy … Kirsten Powers … Auston Anderson … Ted Frank … Kyra Jennings … Purple Strategies’ Tom Egan … R. Emmett Tyrrell Jr. (8-0) … BrabenderCox’s Matt Beynon … Kristin King … Lindy Li … Morning Consult’s Ellisa Brown … Jake Schneider of the RNC … Avik Roy … International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers’ Danielle Eckert … Kimberly Hunt … Schuyler Ebersol Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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