| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade | Presented by The U.S. Chamber of Commerce | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  Donald Trump's legal issues are one of the biggest question marks hanging over the new year. | Scott Olson/Getty Images | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | It’s finally here: the last day of a long, wild year in politics. And now, we can all look forward to a very quiet, calm year that could (1) see a rematch of the last presidential election, (2) find the Supreme Court deciding if a former president should be tossed off state ballots for being an insurrectionist, (3) feature that same former president prosecuted on nearly 100 charges and (4) witness the current president get impeached for unknown reasons. It’ll be a super easy year, y’all. The year-end, year-opening vibe is nicely captured by a headline in the Wall Street Journal: “Republicans Have a Great Chance to Retake the Senate in 2024* ” Pay attention to that asterisk: “ *But they did in 2022, too — abortion access, economy and [DONALD] TRUMP’s legal troubles are seen as unpredictable factors.” Let’s look at those three “unpredictable factors” … ABORTION ACCESS — WSJ’s Molly Ball has a whip-smart read on how supporters of abortion rights have recently shifted the language they use and enjoyed wild electoral success. (Out: “choice.” In: “freedom.”) “‘Talking about this in the context of values really widens our support,’ said [pollster ANGELA] KUEFLER, an adviser to the Nov. 7 ballot initiative in Ohio that added a right to abortion to the state’s constitution, winning by nearly 14 points in a state President [JOE] BIDEN lost by eight. By values, she explained, she was principally talking about the idea of freedom. In polling by Kuefler’s firm, Global Strategy Group, majorities answered ‘yes’ to both ‘Should we restore the rights we had under Roe v. Wade?’ and ‘Should personal decisions like abortion be up to women rather than the government?’ But the latter statement outperformed the former by a whopping 19-point margin, she noted, adding, ‘It’s the values language that allows us to win by such big margins.’ … “It was the Dobbs decision itself that most powerfully changed the discussion … But many advocates believe the shift has also been driven by a subtle but powerful change in messaging that has reshaped the way liberals talk about abortion, fundamentally changing the terms of the highly charged debate and leaving conservatives scrambling to respond. … “Abortion-rights activists rarely use the term ‘pro-choice’ anymore, preferring to talk about people’s ‘freedom to decide.’ In September, the abortion-rights group Naral Pro-Choice America, founded in 1969, changed its name to Reproductive Freedom for All. Grounded in research that predates the Dobbs ruling, these new buzzwords have helped the abortion-rights side resonate across partisan lines. Republicans have noticed the resonance with their liberty-loving voters. ‘They stole freedom!’ one antiabortion Republican consultant recently remarked.” THE ECONOMY — “You won’t hear President Biden talking about it much, but a key record has been broken during his watch: The United States is producing more oil than any country ever has,” write WaPo’s Evan Halper and Toluse Olorunnipa. That, of course, is helping reduce inflation. Nationwide, the average gallon of gasoline now costs $3.11, per AAA. (It’s under $3 a gallon in the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia, though the prices in Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania are among the nation’s very highest.) And, per WaPo, “analysts project it could stay that way leading up to the presidential election, potentially assuaging the economic anxieties of swing state voters who will be crucial to Biden’s hopes of a second term.” And yet, the issue isn’t so straightforward for Biden: “[I]t is not something the president publicly boasts about. The politics of oil are particularly tricky for Democrats, whose chances for victory in the 2024 elections could hinge on whether young, climate-conscious voters come out in big numbers. Many of those voters want to hear that Biden is doing everything in his power to keep oil in the ground.” TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES — “Trump’s bold claims that he’s immune from criminal prosecution over his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election ‘threaten to undermine democracy,’” special counsel JACK SMITH warned the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals in a brief yesterday, Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report. “‘Rather than vindicating our constitutional framework, the defendant’s sweeping immunity claim threatens to license Presidents to commit crimes to remain in office,’ Smith and his team wrote in an 82-page filing. ‘The Founders did not intend and would never have countenanced such a result.’” The big picture: “Smith’s argument sets the framework for the most crucial test of his prosecution of Trump for seeking to subvert the 2020 election, the beginning of a must-win legal battle that is likely headed for the Supreme Court as soon as next month.” You can expect to hear a whole lot more about all three of those topics — abortion rights, the economy and Trump’s legal woes — in 2024. Welcome to the election year. Good Sunday morning, and happy New Year’s Eve. Thanks for reading Playbook. What are your plans to ring in the new year? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Join us for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s annual State of American Business event January 11 to discover how innovation enables businesses to serve customers, solve problems and strengthen society. During our biggest event of the year, you will hear from U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne P. Clark and other leading CEOs highlighting how America’s free enterprise system is crucial for the long-term success of our country. | | | MEANWHILE, IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS — “Biden Lies Low in St. Croix During Holiday Week,” by NYT’s Lisa Friedman: Yesterday, Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN “taped an interview with Ryan Seacrest, due to air on New Year’s Eve as part of ABC’s ‘Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve with Ryan Seacrest.’ In the evening, the president and first lady dined at Too Chez, one of the island’s top restaurants, and he afterward revealed his New Year’s resolution. ‘To come back next year,’ Mr. Biden said.” SUNDAY BEST … — Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Pa.) on speaking out about his depression, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “When it got released where I was and where it was going, it was a big story. And so I had assumed that that would be the end of my career. And I don’t know what kind of impact that would have on my family or anything, so I really didn’t know what would happen at that point. … It’s a risk that I wanted to take because I wanted to help people and know that I don’t want them to suffer the way — or put any kinds of despair that I’ve been in.” More from Kelly Garrity — New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU on non-Trump candidates splitting the vote, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “There’s no doubt that, if [CHRIS] CHRISTIE stays in the race, the risk is that he takes [NIKKI HALEY’s] margin of the win, right? And so I think Chris is going to make a quick calculation. He’s obviously really upset all the pro-Trump people, right? I think he’s a smart guy. He wants to have a voice in this party. He doesn’t want to go forward upsetting all the anti-Trump people too because he kind of overstayed his welcome, put his ego first.” — Rep. TONY GONZALES (R-Texas) on immigration policy, on “Fox News Sunday”: “Most of America believes in legal immigration. But what we’re seeing is not that. This is chaos. And so enough is enough. It’s time to deport those that illegally come into the United States. And President Biden can either do that, or he can watch and lose and watch the next president enforce those policies that are on the books. Hosting Speaker [MIKE] JOHNSON next week is very critical to getting House Republicans on board. I’m expecting at least 60 of my Republican colleagues to join us on that visit.” — Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) on whether Biden should order attacks on the Houthis in Yemen, on ABC’s “This Week”: “I think the president absolutely has to look at what actions need to be taken in Yemen to be able to prevent the Houthis to continue to put commercial and military vessels at risk. The fact that the president’s not doing that is giving Iran a total pass and the ability to operate without consequences in the area. This is a franchise of Iran again, just like Hezbollah and Hamas are, and the administration’s [timidity] is really very curious.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS have nothing on their public schedules.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR
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The U.S. brought down Houthi missiles and ships in the Red Sea following their attacks on vessels. | John C. Clark/AP Photo | 1. WAR REPORT: In the latest skirmish that has drawn in the American military, the U.S. today downed three Houthi ships in the Red Sea after they’d fired on Navy helicopters, per NYT’s Vivek Shankar. The ships’ crews, backed by Iran and newly targeting commercial vessels as retaliation for the Israel-Hamas war, were killed. The U.S. also brought down two missiles the Houthis had launched, per Bloomberg’s Yi Wei Wong. Meanwhile, Israel’s assault on Gaza intensified further yesterday, rocketing the Palestinian death toll higher in defiance of U.S. pressure on a war that the Biden administration nonetheless supports, NYT’s Raja Abdulrahim, Roni Caryn Rabin and Thomas Fuller report. Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU warned that the war will last “many more months,” per Reuters. At the same time, Democratic frustration in the U.S. continued to grow, as Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) criticized the Biden administration for going around Congress to send weapons to Israel. 2. IN AND OUT: “New Spin on a Revolving Door: Pentagon Officials Turned Venture Capitalists,” by NYT’s Eric Lipton: “Retiring generals and departing top Pentagon officials once migrated regularly to the big established weapons makers like Lockheed Martin and Boeing. Now they are increasingly flocking to venture capital firms that have collectively pumped billions of dollars into Silicon Valley-style startups offering the Pentagon new war-fighting tools like autonomous killer drones, hypersonic jets and space surveillance equipment.” 3. BEYOND THE BELTWAY: Across the country, a host of new state laws are scheduled to take effect tomorrow, and AP’s David Lieb and Geoff Mulvihill round up several of the most notable. Multiple states have new gun restrictions, from red-flag laws to ghost guns. Several take aim at online pornography in various ways. Three will implement new bans on transition-related medical care for transgender children. And the minimum wage will jump in 22 states — but that probably won’t have much effect on low-paid workers, WSJ’s Austen Hufford writes. “The reason: Robust raises in recent years have rendered pay floors largely irrelevant, even in states that aggressively lifted them.” 4. SHAPING THE NEXT GENERATION: “How a conservative group’s videos gained a foothold in classrooms with help from Republican officials,” by NBC’s Tyler Kingkade and Antonia Hylton: “Its recent videos feature messages opposing transgender health care and suggesting Americans say ‘Merry Christmas’ instead of ‘Happy holidays.’ Last year, the organization debuted a line of cartoons and classroom materials aimed at school children, called PragerU Kids, which over the last six months has received approval from four state education agencies. … NBC News spoke with education policy specialists, attorneys and ethics experts who say PragerU’s courting of elected officials raises red flags.”
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce:   | | | 5. PRIMARY COLORS: Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon and Pennsylvania are all weighing changes to their primary election systems next year, NBC’s Jane Timm rounds up. Most of the efforts aim to broaden closed partisan primaries to include more independent or unaffiliated voters. In multiple states, organizers are seeking ballot measures to go before voters next fall that would institute nonpartisan primaries and potentially ranked-choice voting in the general election. 6. BEYOND HALEY’S CIVIL WAR GAFFE: “Led by Trump, GOP candidates take polarizing stances on race and history,” by WaPo’s Maeve Reston, Hannah Knowles and Meryl Kornfield: “The Republican Party’s three leading presidential candidates are speaking about history and race in polarizing and provocative ways that sometimes diverge from or distort the facts, some political strategists, experts and civil rights leaders said. Their comments have stoked outrage among many Americans and risk alienating wide swaths of voters … But their rhetoric is also appealing to many Americans who lean conservative, interviews with voters in Iowa and New Hampshire show.” 7. WHAT MIKE GALLAGHER IS UP TO: The House Select Committee on China’s aggressive approach to tackling relations with the rival superpower faces a big test next year: whether it can turn its policy proposals into law, Phelim Kine reports. Gallagher, the Wisconsin Republican who chairs the panel, says he wants “a big China bill.” His attack-dog efforts have turned off some Democrats and experts who warn about overstating Beijing’s threat level or getting too protectionist. But “even some of the dissenters argue that they’re getting closer to crafting a passable bill,” thanks to the committee’s reputation as a bipartisan “oasis.” 8. DEMS’ ONGOING STRUGGLE: “Activists who engage with voters of color are looking for messages that will resonate in 2024,” by AP’s Ayanna Alexander and Gary Fields: “Voting activists said they know voters of color are essential for Biden and cited myriad reasons for the drop in support. Among them is the failure to pass a law that would have strengthened voting rights, after numerous Republican-controlled states passed restrictions in the past few years, and Biden’s promise about student loan forgiveness, only to see the Supreme Court kill it.” 9. WHAT 2023 MEANT: The climate future arrived in 2023, writes WaPo’s Chico Harlan, because the year “will mark a point when humanity crossed into a new climate era — an age of ‘global boiling,’ as United Nations Secretary General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES called it. The year included the hottest single day on record (July 6) and the hottest ever month (July), not to mention the hottest June, the hottest August, the hottest September, the hottest October, the hottest November, and probably the hottest December. It included a day, Nov. 17, when global temperatures, for the first time ever, reached 2 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial levels.”
| | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | | Shenna Bellows’ home was swatted. Brandon Scott got engaged and welcomed a new baby last week. Nikki Haley cheered on Caitlin Clark. WEEKEND WEDDING — Pilar Melendez, a senior national reporter at The Daily Beast and a CNN and MSNBC alum, and Jake Aronson, strategy director at Agenda, got married yesterday at the Biltmore in Miami. They met in NYC in 2016 waiting in line for a bar. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Noor Ibrahim, Emily Shugerman, David Shortell, Max Tani, Valerie Kipnis, Lisa Vedernikova Khanna, Harry Khanna and Andrew Kirell. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) … Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Ky.) … Donald Trump Jr. … U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake (6-0) … Pete Souza … DLCC’s Abhi Rahman … Foxbat Media’s Brian Danza … David Wilezol … WaPo’s Josh Rogin, Joel Achenbach and Naftali Bendavid … Robyn Bryan of Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-Mich.) office … Angie Yack … APCO Worldwide’s Wayne Pines … Max Pedrotti of Rep. Carol Miller’s (R-W.Va.) office … Shannon Vavra … Rick Bosh … POLITICO’s Afra Abdullah and Mark Wegner … Peter G. Miller … Martin J. Kady ... Meg Boland ... Meeghan Prunty … DOD’s Chris Estep … Wade Atkinson … former Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) … Shelby Hartley … Mark Ein … Annabel Lassally … Betsy Barrett … Ronnie Cho … Bloomberg’s Simon Kennedy … Andy Seré … Elliot Mamet of Princeton Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook misidentified the senator who clarified whether Section 3 of the 14th Amendment applied to presidents and vice presidents during Senate debate in 1866. It was Lot Morrill of Maine. It also misstated the name of Steve and Thayer Roberts’ new baby. He is Owen Stephen Roberts.
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Join us for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s annual State of American Business event January 11 to discover how innovation enables businesses to serve customers, solve problems and strengthen society. Our biggest event of the year draws a virtual audience of more than 10,000 people from across the nation and around the world, from small business owners to Fortune 500 CEOs, community leaders, and policymakers. You will hear from U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne P. Clark and other leading CEOs highlighting how America’s free enterprise system is crucial for the long-term success of our country. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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