Thursday, December 7, 2023

Do Trump’s rivals know what time it is?

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POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

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DRIVING THE DAY

LIFE COMES AT YOU FAST — “Candidate for Santos’ old seat is convicted on Jan. 6 charges after testifying he had ‘no idea’ Congress met in the Capitol,” by NBC’s Megan Lebowitz

WHAT BACKLASH? — “Democratic support for Biden ticks up on handling of Israel-Hamas war, AP-NORC poll says,” by AP’s Chris Megerian and Linley Sanders: “His latest standing is roughly equivalent to Democrats’ 57% approval rating for him on the issue in an August poll, conducted well before the latest war began on Oct. 7 when Hamas attacked Israel.”

Republican presidential candidates from left, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy during a Republican presidential primary debate.

Chris Christie, Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy participate in a Republican presidential primary debate at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, on Wednesday, Dec. 6. | Gerald Herbert/AP

DID LAST NIGHT CHANGE ANYTHING? — The Republican presidential debates of 2023 are officially over.

Onstage last night in Tuscaloosa, Alabama …

  • RON DeSANTIS had his best debate performance of the cycle, demonstrating a new feistiness befitting the Iowa-or-bust reality facing his campaign, as …
  • CHRIS CHRISTIE came loaded for bear as if hoping to recapture the magic of his 2016 evisceration of MARCO RUBIO, this time aiming his ire at …
  • VIVEK RAMASWAMY, who continued to deliberately alienate seemingly everyone else; while …
  • NIKKI HALEY, ever polished and prepared, avoided any obvious stumbles that could jeopardize her momentum, even as she got the frontrunner treatment for the first time.

Score them how you want. But this much seems indisputable: Nothing happened last night that changes the fundamentals of the race and the fact that DONALD TRUMP is on a glide path to the GOP nomination.

With the scheduled primary debates now all behind us, it’s clear that Trump lost nothing from not participating. He’s remained the main character even in absentia, while avoiding the potential pitfalls that come with actually having to subject himself to cross-examination or giving oxygen to a would-be opponent.

As a thought experiment, consider how differently it might’ve gone had Trump shown up last night. Just 24 hours removed from a Fox News appearance in which he merrily said he would be a “dictator” on Day One if reelected, he would’ve almost certainly been taking it from all sides. At the very least, he would’ve had to defend himself.

As it was, the debate audience was defensive on his behalf. Christie repeatedly hit Trump as unfit to serve, and was booed during his closing statement as he suggested that the former president is about to lose his right to vote “because he will be convicted of felonies.” The audience of Republican voters remains if not always enamored of the man, then at least protective of him. (He may be an asshole, the old line goes, but he’s our asshole.)

That goes a long way towards explaining the largely hands-off treatment he received from Haley and DeSantis, who correctly realize that with this primary electorate, there’s a difference between being a non-Trump candidate and an anti-Trump one: the former is viable, the latter is not.

 

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Instead, lacking the leader who’s ahead by 50 points, the frontrunner treatment was applied to Haley. Her team told Playbook that she knew a target would be on her back after a several-weeks-long stretch of good news for the former South Carolina governor.

DeSantis hit Haley as someone who would “cave” to Democrats, Wall Street and the donor class. (He should send a check to Democratic California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM for the extra debate practice, which seems to have sharpened his skills.)

Ramaswamy labeled Haley a “fascist neocon,” belittled her experience as UN ambassador and at one point wrote in all caps on his legal pad “NIKKI = CORRUPT” and held it aloft as a prop.

Christie lightly jabbed Haley for complimenting Trump’s trade policy, but jumped in to defend her during one of Ramaswamy’s canned diatribes — a rather interesting turn, given recent reports that Haley donors have reached out to Christie donors to nudge him towards dropping out.

— Related read: “Chris Christie can’t decide how to treat Nikki Haley,” by Lisa Kashinsky

Again, a thought experiment: If you watched this debate knowing absolutely nothing about the race or the candidates, would you have thought Haley or Trump was leading the field?

In that way, Christie was the only candidate who seemed to know what time it is, to borrow a phrase popular on the MAGA right: Trump is leading, nobody is close to him in the polls, and that’s unlikely to change unless the other candidates start aiming their attacks at him. Could that backfire? Yes. But at this late stage — with 2023 about to be in the rearview mirror and with less than 40 days until the Iowa caucuses — what the hell do you have to lose?

Read more: “Who won, who lost and who went unscathed at the fourth GOP debate,” featuring Steven Shepard, Natalie Allison, Adam Wren and Kimberly Leonard … Top takeaways: NYTAPNBCCNNFox News

Good Thursday morning, and Happy Hanukkah (which starts tonight). Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

WAKE UP, READ PLAYBOOK — We have an exciting update for Playbook readers: Starting Dec. 18, all Playbook subscribers will also receive Playbook PM every Monday through Friday. As a member of the Playbook community, you will get a double dose of scoops, storylines and analysis every weekday as we enter a newsy election year. No need to take action: You will receive your first PM edition on the 18th if you aren’t subscribed already. Thank you for being a part of the Playbook community.

TRAGEDY IN LAS VEGAS — via the Las Vegas Review Journal: “Three victims were shot and killed Wednesday on the UNLV campus in an attack that ended after the gunman’s death, authorities said.” … Adds the AP: “The man suspected of fatally shooting three people and wounding another at a Las Vegas university Wednesday was a professor who unsuccessfully sought a job at the school.”

NOW UNDERWAY — “Washington Post staffers walk out in biggest labor protest in 48 years,” by “Washington Post Staff” in WaPo

KERRY ON — U.S. special presidential climate envoy JOHN KERRY signaled his desire to continue in his role after this year’s U.N. climate talks conclude. Speaking to POLITICO’s “Power Play” podcast with Anne McElvoy, Kerry said, “As long as this is a crisis, I will be organizing and speaking and active in dealing with this challenge.” Pressed on how long he would serve as special envoy, he replied: “Maybe in one role or another, I have no idea. I intend to be a citizen until my last breath.” Listen here

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 10 a.m. to resume consideration of the motion to proceed to the supplemental appropriations bill and a number of other bills and nominations. The Foreign Relations Committee will hold a hearing on KURT CAMPBELL’s nomination as deputy secretary of state at 11 a.m.

The House will meet at 9 a.m. to consider a bill condemning Biden’s action on student loan aid, with first and last votes expected at 10:15 a.m. The Intelligence Committee will mark up Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act reauthorization at 9 a.m.

3 things to watch …

  1. The conferenced National Defense Authorization Act is out. What’s in is a four-month extension of the Section 702 foreign surveillance program, sidestepping an ugly end-of-year reauthorization fight. What’s not is an extension of the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act — an omission that has prompted Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) to block the bill. If the Senate is going to have any hope of passing it ahead of its scheduled holiday departure next week, expect the procedural gears to start moving today.
  2. Yesterday’s failed Senate test vote on aid for Ukraine and Israel seemed to knock the stalled talks loose a tiny bit, insomuch as it prompted senators to muse that the Senate won’t be capable of solving this itself. Better, some said, for Biden himself to get directly involved. “It’s going to take his leadership or we’re stuck,” Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) said, per HuffPost’s Igor Bobic. Watch to see if GOP leaders make direct overtures.
  3. Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN is on track to be censured today after a motion to table the GOP effort to punish the New York Democrat for his triggering of a Capitol campus fire alarm failed yesterday along party lines. Democrats, including House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, decried the reprimand as disproportionate and ill-advised in floor speeches yesterday. Still, expect the final tally to closely follow the 216-201 test vote.

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and JOHN KIRBY will brief at 1 p.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will host holiday receptions at the Naval Observatory in the afternoon and in the evening.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

CONGRESS

Michael McCaul speaking with reporters.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) speaks with reporters at the U.S. Capitol on Feb. 6, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE — Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), the top Republican leading efforts to extend the law governing the United States’ global HIV/AIDS relief work, says that negotiations to jumpstart the PEPFAR program are deadlocked, “jeopardizing one of the most successful U.S. foreign interventions of this century,” our colleagues Alice Miranda Ollstein and Carmen Paun report.

While McCaul “had been cautiously optimistic for months that he could broker a deal to re-up a program that is credited with saving 25 million lives and long enjoyed bipartisan support,” the effort stalled out after Republicans accused the Biden administration of using PEPFAR to fund abortion providers overseas and House Democrats refused to reinstate Trump administration rules that prohibited foreign aid going to groups that provide or counsel on abortions.

What’s next: Now, the best hope for re-upping the $7 billion annual program is a government spending process “beset by delays and divisions and slated to drag into January and February with no guarantee of success.” PEPFAR can technically coast along without reauthorization — unless there’s a prolonged government shutdown — but advocates warn that the ramifications of no long-term solution could be dire.

“I’m disappointed,” McCaul tells our colleagues in an exclusive interview. “Honestly, I was looking forward to marking up a five-year reauthorization, and now I’m in this abortion debate.” He added: “It’s not where I wanted to be.”

More top reads:

  • Top House Republicans in a letter issued yesterday are threatening to hold HUNTER BIDEN in contempt of Congress should he fail to show up for private testimony next week, which Oversight Chair JAMES COMER (R-Ky.) and Judiciary Chair JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) requested via subpoena, WSJ’s C. Ryan Barber reports. Biden has stated that he will sit for public testimony, but has said he is wary of a closed-door session over concerns that Republicans might selectively leak portions of it. Read the letter 
  • The House Ethics Committee has “reached out to at least one witness as part of its investigation into GOP Rep. MATT GAETZ to schedule an interview in the coming weeks, the latest sign that the once dormant probe remains open,” CNN’s Paula Reid and Annie Grayer report. It’s the “first sign of activity in the Ethics committee’s Gaetz probe since investigators made contact with witnesses in July.”
  • Sen. MARTIN HEINRICH (D-N.M.) speaks with AP’s Lisa Mascaro about new legislation to regulate guns in America, which he is working on with Sen. ANGUS KING (I-Maine), that aims to crack down on assault-style weapons by regulating “such guns to have permanently fixed magazines, limited to 10 rounds for rifles and 15 rounds for some heavy-format pistols.”
 

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2024 WATCH

Joe Biden speaks.

President Joe Biden campaigns in Pueblo, Colorado, on Nov. 29. | Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images

DEMOCRACY DIES IN STARKNESS — Trump’s comment this week stating that he wouldn’t be a “dictator” if he returns to the White House “other than Day One” has been a gift to the Biden campaign, putting the spotlight squarely on the issue that they want to push with voters, Jonathan Lemire and Myah Ward report.

However, some Democrats want the president to widen the lens. “This past weekend, a group of the party’s governors used its annual retreat to urge Biden to focus on issues like abortion, not Trump. But while the Biden camp will continue to draw issue-specific contrasts, the president himself has made clear he wants to frame the election ahead as a battle for democracy itself. The GOP frontrunner continues to provide ample opportunity for Biden to return to this familiar theme.”

More top reads:

  • RICK SANTORUM is suddenly all any longshot wants to talk about in the 2024 campaign, as they all hope to replicate his 2012 magic act that saw him surge to a victory in the Iowa caucuses. “According to Santorum, at least two campaigns have reached out to him within the last few weeks for advice,” our colleague Adam Wren reports. Said Santorum,  “I’m the patron saint of all these guys who are looking for a longshot win, which is great.” But the invocation of Santorum also shows just how desperate campaigns are for a miracle to supplant Trump atop the crop.

MORE POLITICS 

SWAMP CREATURES — A growing chorus of top elected officials in recent days have called on Florida GOP Chair CHRISTIAN ZIEGLER “to step down amid allegations that he raped a woman who had been sexually involved with both him and his wife, BRIDGET ZIEGLER, last year,” Gary Fineout and Kimberly Leonard report. “Party leaders are concerned that Ziegler’s refusal to step down could hurt them ahead of an election cycle that includes the presidential race, a high-profile Senate contest and control of Congress as well as the Florida Legislature.”

Related read: “As Scandal Simmers, Florida Republicans Want Party Chairman Out,” by NYT’s Patricia Mazzei: “Regardless of what happens, Republicans will almost certainly maintain clear advantages in the state in voter registration, candidate recruitment and legislative and congressional seats, as Democrats try to rebuild after years of election losses.”

DON’T CALL IT A COMEBACK — Former Nashville, Tennessee, Mayor MEGAN BERRY is launching a Democratic bid to unseat Rep. MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.), “seeking a political comeback more than five years after the fallout from an extramarital affair cut her tenure short,” AP’s Jonathan Mattise writes. “Barry is running in one of three congressional districts that carved up Nashville during Republican-led redistricting last year.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

THE WELL-OILED MACHINE — Saudi Arabia is urging nations to take action on what it suggests is a growing threat to the Earth’s climate: wind and solar power, our colleague Corbin Hiar reports. “The pitch from the world’s biggest oil player includes a Saudi government document, obtained by POLITICO’s E&E News, expressing concern about the ‘lifecycle’ greenhouse gas emissions of wind, solar and other renewable energy sources, whose popularity has grown as countries look for alternatives to planet-heating fossil fuels.”

THE VIEW FROM THE U.S. — “Blinken says Israel is taking important steps to better protect civilians in southern Gaza,” by CNN’s Jennifer Hansler

FOR YOUR RADAR — “U.S. military grounds entire fleet of Osprey aircraft following a deadly crash off the coast of Japan,” by AP’s Tara Copp

POLICY CORNER

SMOKE SIGNALS — The White House’s decision to delay a ban on menthol cigarettes came “amid intense lobbying from tobacco companies, convenience stores and industry-backed groups that contend that billions of dollars in sales and jobs will be lost,” NYT’s Christina Jewett, Sheryl Gay Stolberg and David Fahrenthold write. “The proposal has also generated concerns that Black smokers will become the targets of aggressive police tactics, although some Black leaders, top lawmakers and government officials dispute that and say that tobacco companies are financing and fueling those fears.”

NOT-SO-SIMPLY ACADEMIC — The presidents of Harvard, Penn and M.I.T. came under intense scrutiny yesterday after appearing at a House committee hearing, where they “seemed to evade what seemed like a rather simple question during a contentious congressional hearing: Would they discipline students calling for the genocide of Jews?” NYT’s Stephanie Saul and Anemona Hartocollis write. Their collective comments before the panel drew outraged responses from the White House to Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO, who is a nonvoting member of Penn’s board. (Worth watching: Penn President LIZ MAGILL’s video message last night condemning antisemitism and calling for a revision of the school’s policies.)

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Patrick McHenry, Justin Jones, Yoon Suk Yeol, Chirlane McCray and Bill de Blasio, and E. Jean Carroll made NYT’s list of the most stylish people of 2023.

OUT AND ABOUT — APAICS hosted its annual holiday party in Rayburn yesterday evening, where APAICS President and CEO Madalene Xuan-Trang Mielke and Chair of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus Judy Chu (D-Calif.) gave opening remarks. SPOTTED: USTR Katherine Tai, acting Labor Secretary Julie Su, Deputy OMB Director Nani Coloretti, Sen. Mazie K. Hirono (D-HI), Reps. Grace Meng (D-N.Y.), Mark Takano (D-Calif.), Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), Jill Tokuda (D-Hawaii), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), and Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.), Krystal Ka’ai, Michael Coen Jr., Nisha Ramachandran, Kelvin Lum, Linda Shim, Nishith Pandya, Kenny LaSalle, Alex Huang, Adam Carbullido, Joon Kim, Joseph Fortson and Sarah Hudson.

— Mica Strother and Greg Hale hosted a party for Harry Dunn’s new book, “Standing My Ground: A Capitol Police Officer’s Fight for Accountability and Good Trouble After January 6th,” ($28) at their home in D.C., where guests were treated to cocktails, hors d’oeuvres and an introduction of the author by Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.). SPOTTED: Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.), Michael Collins, Adrienne Elrod, Bruce Kieloch, Mary Streett, Kimball Stroud, Patsy Thomasson, Paula Thomasson, Jonathan Capehart, Nichole Francis Reynolds, Kevin McDonald and Jimmie Williams.

The McCain Institute hosted a dinner and discussion last night, featuring U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine’s Economic Recovery Penny Pritzker, Ukrainian Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin and members of the McCain Institute’s Ukraine Business Alliance. The discussion was moderated by McCain Institute Executive Director Evelyn Farkas. SPOTTED: Michael Allen, Wendy Anderson, Tyson Barker, Phil Bednarczyk, Jeremy Bernton, Serhiy Boyev, Matt Chandler, Katie Earle, Heidi Grant, Jon Gruen, Ganna Gvozdiar and Volodymyr Muzylyov.

TRANSITIONS — Kerry Rom is joining Speaker Mike Johnson’s office as deputy comms director for strategy and message. She most recently was working for Tim Scott’s presidential campaign and is a Targeted Victory alum. … Adeola Adesina will be director of strategic planning for Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.). She previously was chief of staff in the Office of Intergovernmental and External Affairs at HHS, and is a Jeff Merkley, Eric Swalwell and Chuck Schumer alum. … Jessica Lawrence-Vaca is joining Array Technologies as SVP for policy and external affairs. She most recently was VP of government affairs at SOLV Energy. …

Jon Dickinson is now VP for global government and public affairs at Micron. He previously was global head of government relations at Flex, and is an HP alum. … Jessica Brady is joining the American Hotel & Lodging Association as VP of federal affairs for tax policy. She most recently was senior director of federal government relations at the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States. … Andy Pierucci is now head of government affairs for Savage. He previously was manager for state and local government relations for Northrop Grumman.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) … Bloomberg’s Bennett RothMolly Block of Sen. Bill Cassidy’s (R-La.) office … Dafna TapieroAnne MacMillanSam RunyonTyler Prell … POLITICO’s Katelyn Cordero, Devika Modak and Sam Sutton Donna Goodison Sarah Mucha … ABC’s Kathryn McQuade … International Trade Administration’s Sam SchofieldBonnie GlickSuhail KhanRoma Daravi of Daravi Strategies … Kate Tummarello … KPMG’s Priya Dayananda Kyle Noyes … NYT’s Dean ChangMary Heitman Christina FreundlichCarole SimpsonMichael PunkeCandy Glazer Dani Kimball of Sena Kozar Strategies … Mike Klein Noam Chomsky (95)

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