| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | | Nothing says welcome back from a long weekend like two special primary elections. Voters in Rhode Island and Utah are hitting the polls Tuesday to cast their ballots in special election primaries that will likely decide the newest members of Congress. RI-01 is a reliably blue district, with nearly a dozen Democrats vying to succeed former Democratic Rep. David Cicilline. And UT-02 is considered a safe Republican seat, where three Republicans are looking to replace outgoing GOP Rep. Chris Stewart.
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RI-01 is a reliably blue district, and UT-02 is considered a safe Republican seat. | David Goldman/AP Photo | | With campaigning taking place over the sleepy summer months — when voters may not be aware that a special election is even happening — turnout will likely be low and it’s difficult to discern who the frontrunners are in these contests. There has been limited public polling in the Rhode Island race, although internal polls from competing campaigns show a mix of former state Rep. Aaron Regunberg, Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos, former White House official Gabe Amo and state Sen. Sandra Cano as top contenders among the crowded field. In Utah, a Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll found that nearly half of respondents were undecided about the race, although former state Rep. Becky Edwards was pulling ahead of her two competitors, former Stewart aide Celeste Maloy and former state party chair Bruce Hough. “There's been no one candidate that you would say, ‘Wow, that person's electrified everybody in the district,’” Joe Fleming, a Rhode Island political analyst and pollster, said of the RI-01 Democratic primary. The same goes in Utah. “This thing’s still more than up in the air,” said Carson Jorgensen, a former chair of the Utah Republican Party, adding that he was surprised that the UT-02 contest has been as quiet as it has been. A mere $500,000 was spent on ads in the UT-02 race, with Edwards putting over $300,000 in, per ad tracker AdImpact. Edwards, who in part is boosted by her statewide name recognition following her unsuccessful challenge to Republican Sen. Mike Lee last year, also raised the most in the leadup to the primary — although around half of her haul came from a personal loan. RI-01 has been a bit more active, with over $3 million spent on ads and notably Democratic outside groups duking it out. That includes more than $1 million from outside groups, with the likes of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ BOLD PAC and EMILYs List’s Women Vote! supporting Matos and the Working Families Party boosting Regunberg. Regunberg has the strongest fundraising among the candidates still in the race. Both races have also had their scandals — ones that could have an impact on the race. Matos, who has the backing of numerous national groups and was initially seen as the frontrunner, has been surrounded by controversy for submitting hundreds of invalid signatures on her nominating papers. Meanwhile, Regunberg has been hit for being boosted by a super PAC run by his father-in-law, after he has criticized the role of money in politics. And in Utah, the state party, along with Stewart (and kind of Republican Gov. Spencer Cox) have picked Maloy as their candidate of choice. She’s been differentiating herself by touting her rural roots in a district that covers large swaths of rural land in the southern and western part of the state, along with Democratic-leaning Salt Lake City. Opponents unsuccessfully tried to kick her off the ballot after learning that she wasn’t registered to vote as a Republican in Utah when she filed to run for the seat. Tuesday’s special primary elections — the first of the 118th Congress since the December primaries in VA-04 to replace the late Democratic Rep. Don McEachin — may also provide some insight into the broader mood of the parties. Should Regunberg win in Rhode Island, it would be the latest win for progressive power, after Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) waded into the race in support of him. And if Edwards pulls ahead in Utah, she could be a rare success story for a Republican who is outspoken against former President Donald Trump. Edwards, who casts herself as a “commonsense conservative,” has been hit throughout the campaign for voting for President Joe Biden in 2020. (She said recently that she regrets supporting him.) In Rhode Island, two Republicans are running in the GOP primary. The winner of Utah’s Republican primary will face off against Democratic state Sen. Kathleen Riebe and a handful of third-party candidates. Polls close at 8 p.m. EST in Rhode Island, and 10 p.m. EST in Utah. It’s Tuesday. Welcome back to Morning Score. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the RI-01 and UT-02 special election primaries: TODAY Days until the Louisiana primary: 39 Days until the 2023 election: 63 Days until the Republican National Convention: 314 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 349 Days until the 2024 election: 427
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| | LEGAL LOOK — A seldom-used legal theory is gaining traction among Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans. The “insurrection clause” of the 14th Amendment “disqualifies Trump from ever holding office again due to his attempts to undermine the 2020 election and his role in stoking the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021,” POLITICO’s Erica Orden reports. It could “thrust the courts, and likely the Supreme Court, into an unsettled debate over the meaning of the insurrection clause, a long-winded 110-word provision that was ratified in 1868 and has rarely been interpreted — or even invoked — since then.” PAC ATTACK — Feel like you’re seeing more attacks on GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy lately? You can thank Never Back Down for that, POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt reports. Jeff Roe, who heads the pro-Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis super PAC, “bragged that the super PAC was behind an avalanche of opposition research targeting the rival candidate.” Ramaswamy, a first-time candidate, emerged as one of the focal points of the first GOP presidential debate late last month. … RELATED: “‘Absolute standoff’ between Pence, Ramaswamy in New Hampshire,” by POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky and Adam Wren. CROSS-PARTY BRIDGE — Former Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is seeing his popularity soar among Democrats. It’s a demographic that the campaign said it isn’t directly targeting, but it’s one that they won’t shy away from. Read more from POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy and Lisa Kashinsky. AND THEN THERE WERE 13 — Republican Miami Mayor Francis Suarez dropped out of the running for president last week. He’s the first one among the crowded field of GOP hopefuls to end his campaign. His campaign lasted 76 days.
| | REDISTRICTING REDUX — A judge ruled that Florida’s congressional map violates the state’s constitution. The weekend ruling orders the GOP-led Legislature to create a new map, although the secretary of state indicated that the state will appeal, our David Kihara and Gary Fineout report. Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis pushed the map, which led to former Rep. Al Lawson, a Black Democrat, losing in the midterms after his seat was redrawn, as well as Republicans picking up four seats. SENATE SCRAMBLE — A pair of former congressmen could be the first prominent Republicans to jump into the open race for Michigan Senate. Former Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.) launched an exploratory committee for Senate last week, The Detroit News’ Craig Mauger reports. Meanwhile, former Rep. Mike Rogers is also expected to launch a Senate bid, per The Detroit News’ Melissa Nann Burke. … Arizona Republican Blake Masters is poised to make another try for Senate, POLITICO’s Burgess Everett and Holly Otterbein report. That would set up a primary challenge with Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and defeated gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, if she enters the race. And don’t forget about the prospect of a three-way general election, should Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) run for reelection. GUNNING FOR GOVERNOR — West Virginia Democrat Steve Williams is running for governor. The Huntington mayor is the first Democrat to join the race to succeed Republican Gov. Jim Justice, who is term-limited and is running for Senate. STAYING MUM — Democratic Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said last week that he’s “not going to speculate” about appointing a replacement for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell following the senator’s latest freezing episode. State law says that the governor can only choose a senator’s successor from a list of three names that senator’s party submits. In other words, the successor would have to be a Republican. Although some Democrats have suggested that Beshear could challenge the law, he’s declining to comment on the matter since McConnell has “said he’s going to serve out his term.” IT’S A NO FROM ME — Republican New Hampshire Education Commissioner Frank Edelblut is not running for governor to succeed Republican Gov. Chris Sununu. Former Republican New Hampshire Senate President Chuck Morse and former Sen. Kelly Ayotte are among the Republicans running for the post. TRIALS AND TRIBULATIONS — Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s impeachment trial begins on Tuesday. Paxton, who won reelection to his third term last year, is currently suspended. “If Paxton is acquitted on all articles, he would be cleared to return to office. If there is a conviction on any article of impeachment, Paxton would be removed from office, and the House board of managers could ask senators for a follow-up vote to disqualify Paxton from holding future office,” The Texas Tribune’s Yuriko Schumacher and James Barragán write. DEBATE DODGING — The first Louisiana gubernatorial debate is taking place this week, and the presumed frontrunner won’t be there. Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry said he won’t take part in Thursday’s debate over concerns that the Urban League of Louisiana “won’t treat Republican candidates fairly,” the Louisiana Illuminator’s Julie O’Donoghue reports. Landry has also avoided forums and events in recent months that would put him on the stage with fellow candidates. The gubernatorial primary is in just over one month. IN THE STATES — Anne Hathaway was elected chair of the Indiana Republican Party, the first woman in state party history. She’ll “continue to hold her position on the RNC, where she chairs the Committee on Arrangements, which is charged with organizing the 2024 RNC Convention in Milwaukee,” the Indianapolis Star’s Kayla Dwyer writes. BALLOT BATTLE — Abortion rights advocates in Ohio sued the Ohio Ballot Board last week for approving revised language for a November ballot measure that would codify abortion in the state’s constitution. The plaintiffs ask the state Supreme Court to either correct the language — which includes terms like “unborn child” instead of fetus — or use the full text of the amendment on the ballot. Military and overseas absentee voting begins on Sept. 22.
| | | | DOWN-BALLOT DOLLARS — The DNC is investing more than $1 million in this year’s legislative races in Virginia in an attempt to counter Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s massive fundraising for the elections, The Washington Post’s Laura Vozzella reports. That DNC investment is “15 times more than it invested four years ago, the last time all 140 seats in the state Senate and House of Delegates were on the ballot.” MEET ME IN THE MIDDLE — Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who hasn’t announced if he’s running for reelection (or for president), and his daughter are pitching donors on a $100 million-plus effort to promote centrist policies, per The Wall Street Journal’s Eliza Collins, Julie Bykowicz and Lindsay Wise. Heather Manchin, the senator’s daughter, “said she leads the group and that it isn’t tied to her father’s political prospects or possible campaigns.”
| | MS GOV — Republican Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves is leading the governor’s race with 52 percent of support over Democratic challenger Brandon Presley’s 41 percent, per a Mississippi Today/Siena College poll. (650 likely voters, Aug. 20-28, MoE +/- 4.0 percentage points). Meanwhile, a recent internal poll conducted by Impact Research for the Presley campaign shows the race tied at 46 percent (600 likely voters, Aug. 6-9, MoE +/- 4 percentage points).
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of the first episodes in September – click here. | | | | | | | | | WHO’S RUNNING THE SHOW — A contentious law that would only impact Harris County — Texas’ most populous county and home of Houston — went into effect on Friday. The county’s tax assessor and clerk are now taking on the election administrator’s duties, a change that has some Democrats and election officials concerned given the short timeline before Houston’s mayoral election later this year.
| | KY GOV — Beshear’s campaign is going after Republican opponent Attorney General Daniel Cameron over abortion, featuring a prosecutor calling Cameron’s anti-abortion rights views “extreme” and “dangerous.” It’s rare for a Democrat to go on offense over the issue, which Republicans typically campaign on in the state, the Louisville Courier Journal’s Joe Sonka notes. LA GOV — The Republican Governors Association is wading into the Louisiana gubernatorial race. RGA Right Direction PAC is spending more than $1 million on an attack ad against Democrat Shawn Wilson, whom Democrats have coalesced around, the Shreveport Times’ Greg Hilburn reports. … Protect Louisiana’s Children, the PAC supporting Landry, is going after Republican state Treasurer John Schroder — a new target for the group, which typically attacks Republican candidate Stephen Waguespack on the airwaves. … Independent Hunter Lundy dropped more than $1 million on his first ad in the race, introducing himself to voters. MS GOV — Reeves is responding to an ad from the Presley campaign highlighting his alleged involvement in a welfare scandal. The Reeves campaign is calling it “100 percent false” and insisting that “Reeves had nothing to do with the scandal.” … Despite Presley releasing his own rebuttal ad when Reeves accused him of supporting gender-affirming care for children, Reeves is again calling the Democrat a “lying liberal” in a spot for the same reason. Presley has said he wouldn’t overturn Reeves-passed laws that ban gender-affirming care for minors, should he become governor. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “Of course I don’t. But also I don’t care what he wears.” (Gisele Fetterman to The Cut on if she thinks her husband Sen. John Fetterman dresses well) | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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