Friday, September 8, 2023

Nvidia Insiders Selling! Wait, does that even matter?

Nvidia Insiders Selling! Wait, does that even matter?

Corona Del Mar, CA

 

Howdy Chris,

 

Oh man, the CEO of Nvidia is selling shares. $42 million worth.

 

(Although his net worth is $43 billion, so pretty much a drop in the bucket...how come no one noticed that?).

 

Does that finally mark the top?

 

Wait, does insider buying/selling predict anything?

 

You should never assume something works -- an idea must be tested.

 

Just because insider info is published everywhere, and even available as a trading service doesn't mean it actually works.

 

Heck, traders draw trend lines and chart patterns on stocks every day of the week, even though that is 100% without a doubt a pseudoscience because it is not repeatable.

 

(that, and I accidentally disproved it using a supercomputer network...18 months of my life -- and two other employees -- that we'll never get back).

 

Lucky for us, there are plenty of studies on insider transactions.

 

They all point to one conclusion: They're not very predictive.

 

You're better off using price-based strategies.

 

Are you surprised anymore that Wall Street is full of quackery?

 

Jump on over to Google Scholar search and see for yourself.

 

So what is a trading strategy with 633 round-trip trades saying?

 

NVDA is still on a buy:

Josh 100 NVDA Strategy

This strategy is part of the Josh 100 collection, and uses BlackRock mispricing data for signals.
 
It doesn't care about the Fed, the fundamentals of NVDA, the spike in bankruptcies, decline in commercial bank lending, the price of cardboard, Baltic Dry shipping, arctic oil drilling rights, rumors about fake NVDA customers, China, pivot numbers, global melting, zero day options, ISM manufacturing...and the whole cornucopia of data that's unproven to have any predictive ability whatsoever.
 
Want access to this strategy and 99 others?
 
 
P.S. As you might imagine, spots are filling up fast. We only have the capacity for 75 trials at this time due to a limit on compute time from our cloud provider.
 
When those spots are gone, they're gone.
 
P.P.S. Here's another brokerage statement that just came in from August:

Trade smart,

 

Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy

 

By the way, The Boss now has his own Twitter account. He's very ornery. I DO NOT write the tweets. I only give him some suggestions, and then go from there.

 

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